Proven fact: Absolute political power can't jack up GDP growth

[webfact]

OPINION
Proven fact: Absolute political power can't jack up GDP growth
Suthichai Yoon

BANGKOK: -- Premier Prayut Chan-o-cha faces two major decisions this week: 1. Will he lift martial law? If so, how does he explain the decision to replace it with the all-embracing Article 44 of the interim charter, which may be even more draconian and "dictatorial"?

2. Will he reshuffle the Cabinet, particularly ministers in charge of economic management now that the forecast for the economy for the whole year has become gloomier - and the prediction for the year's performance is equally depressing?

He may choose to wait and see, since both issues are highly controversial and could touch off even worse reactions. But all indications are that the prime minister can't afford to buy time. Any further delay could play into the hands of those ready to undermine his government's stability.

The premier is obviously frustrated by these economic doldrums. Exports in the past two months have dropped 4.8 per cent compared to the same period last year. The central bank has reduced its forecast for this year's GDP growth from 4 per cent to 3.8 per cent while the Asian Development Bank points to 3.6 per cent. Domestic consumption has not picked up. Despite tough orders from the top, disbursements of various government agencies have not accelerated at a rate that could boost spending to jumpstart the economy's pulse.

Calls for a reshuffle of the economic team in the Cabinet are getting louder. The premier has so far resisted the pressure. To avoid having to shake up his ministers, he has assigned Deputy Premier and Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwan, who heads a special task force to keep the economy moving, to mobilise the private sector to provide a shot in the arm for the country's business activities.

The country's top corporate leaders have been invited to a brainstorming session, but, privately, these business leaders have pointed to a lack of sufficient coordination among Cabinet members to get things done.

MR Pridiyathorn Devakula, who is supposed to be the deputy premier in charge of economic affairs, has become the target of criticism. He has denied charges he is at loggerheads with the country's top economic adviser, Dr Somkid Jatusripitak. He hasn't categorically cast aside speculation, though, about his conflict with the commerce minister or his inability to forge sufficient teamwork to give the economy a real boost.

The first quarter's performance, which isn't expected to produce any positive news, will compel the premier to give his economic team a facelift, having discovered, perhaps, that possessing absolute political power doesn't necessarily translate into economic results. It's the day-to-day implementation of an integrated economic, financial and monetary policy that produces real results. Also, the failure of the economic team to communicate with the man on the street has further contributed to the lacklustre performance.

Running parallel to the economic issues is the more sensitive question of security. The premier has consistently shot down calls for the lifting of the martial law. Last week, however, the pressure might have forced him to change tack. He said he would use a new order issued under Article 44 of the interim Constitution to give himself absolute power over executive, legislative and judicial decisions.

"The National Council for Peace and Order is above every other agency in the country," he declared, prompting fears that the scrapping of martial law may be just a plot to strengthen his power to run the country, raising further questions about whether he will abide by the original road map to hold elections in the early part of next year.

There is little doubt that General Prayut isn't ready to give up his hold on power at this point. He has made it plain that if any change is to come about in relation to his power, it will be in form only and certainly not in substance.

If he has learned any lesson in the 10 months since he staged the May 22 coup, it's that absolute political power can't win every battle, especially the economic one. Unless he can use his "decisiveness" to resolve the stubborn economic malaise, his hanging on to power by shifting from martial law to Article 44 will only plunge him into more trouble.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Proven-fact-Absolute-political-power-cant-jack-up--30257244.html

-- The Nation 2015-04-02

[Johnnie99]

'Proven fact', eh?

Is a fact unproven, or something proven not a fact?

Who writes this stuff?

[ronwparker]

I do not believe any facts produced by ant Thai Government or department

[trogers]

Would depends on the state of base things rise from.

Would there be GDP growth when a dictatorship rises from a state of anarchy?

[soalbundy]

The PTP must be scenting blood by now, we may soon go back to anarchy followed by the coup to end all coups,permanent military dictatorship although knowing the Thai propensity for violent street clashes that wouldn't be too permanent. Thailand swings like a pendulum, despite being Buddhist they can't seem to find the middle way.

[Strangebrew]

And as the house of cards tumbles we sit here a watch. Makes for good laugh at least Now the Baht goes to 44 to 1 USD? guess the nah sayers are thinking twice now.

[trogers]

Lee Kuan Yew is laughing ?

He spent 50 years proving the opposite.

[yellowboat]

Most people will buy anything from anybody, unless other countries or international bodies have the power to interfere. The Thai aviation and fish industries are examples of forcing Thailand to do the right thing.

[gudtymchuk]

Thailand shooting themselves in the foot with so much bad publicity such as the International Civil Aviation Organization audit castigation, misrepresenting being banned from travel to a supposedly allied country, self promoting grandiose news conferences and an endless list of other gaffs doesn't do much to reinforce their standing on the world stage.....

[meltingpot2015]

'Proven fact', eh?

Is a fact unproven, or something proven not a fact?

Who writes this stuff?

'Proven fact', eh?

How would you put it, I am curious.

[EnglishJohn]

And as the house of cards tumbles we sit here a watch. Makes for good laugh at least Now the Baht goes to 44 to 1 USD? guess the nah sayers are thinking twice now.

The house of cards already collapsed and now he is trying to rebuild it.

And it is 32 to the dollar.

Anything else you want to completely mis-represent ?.

I'll think twice when I see any intelligent arguments at all justifying what Pheu-Thai did to create this mess.

[cocopops]

'Proven fact', eh?

Is a fact unproven, or something proven not a fact?

Who writes this stuff?

There are of course many unproven facts, some of which will become proven in the future. Most proven facts were themselves at one point unproven. By adding "proven" the author represents that this particular fact has at some point been demonstrated in such a way as to make repudiation unlikely. It is a fact not just in the opinion of the author, but in the opinion of all rational minds privy to the proof.

Edited April 2, 2015 by cocopops

[meltingpot2015]

Yet no one has offered how they would have phrased the title. Welcome to the forum: criticism without critique.

Also, note that this was published in the opinion column, so it's the opinion of the author. S(he) was offering her/his opinion and presenting the evidence, leaving it to anyone reading to make their conclusions.

S(he) has given reasons to justify her/his use of "Proven" for the proposed "fact".

[tonbridgebrit]

Nation Newspper, stop being a bunch of silly boys. Absolute political power sometimes does not jack up GDP growth, correct. But, sometimes, countries where there is absolute poltical power, well, there is growth in GDP.

There's a place near Thailand, yes, it's China. Is China a democracy ? Surely not. But China has had serious GDP growth per year, it's been going on for the last quarter-of-a-century.

How many Chinese tourists were there in London and Pattaya 25 years ago ?? How many today ? Surely, the mass growth in the number of Chinese tourists is due to the rapid economic growth.

[candide]

Nation Newspper, stop being a bunch of silly boys. Absolute political power sometimes does not jack up GDP growth, correct. But, sometimes, countries where there is absolute poltical power, well, there is growth in GDP.

There's a place near Thailand, yes, it's China. Is China a democracy ? Surely not. But China has had serious GDP growth per year, it's been going on for the last quarter-of-a-century.

How many Chinese tourists were there in London and Pattaya 25 years ago ?? How many today ? Surely, the mass growth in the number of Chinese tourists is due to the rapid economic growth.

It proves exactly the contrary of what you try to prove. During this time China has evolved from total dictature to more moderate dictature. So it's a decreasing level of dictature associated with economic growth.

[cumgranosalum]

Much as I don't like the expression in the title, it is fair to say that most "single power" regimes fail when it comes to economics. This complex subject with links and knock-ons is far to intricate for a single body to deal with. the past tells us that most of these systems implode if not quickly the life-span is at most 40 years.

the problems then arise as the economy slowly contracts and people get poorer, the government has to fid ways of fending off blame - this usually results in a more and more repressive regime and increasing use of scapegoats to take the blame and the pressure of the government - lets hope Prayuth sees this coming and avoids it.

[trogers]

Democracy = more government debts to be paid back by citizens!

Show me the top 25 debtor countries, democratic or socialistic/communistic?

[trogers]

Democracy = more government debts to be paid back by citizens!

Show me the top 25 debtor countries, democratic or socialistic/communistic?

http://m.financialsense.com/contributors/leslie-cuadra/2011/08/31/list-of-worlds-largest-creditor-and-debtor-nations

[meltingpot2015]

Much as I don't like the expression in the title, it is fair to say that most "single power" regimes fail when it comes to economics. This complex subject with links and knock-ons is far to intricate for a single body to deal with. the past tells us that most of these systems implode if not quickly the life-span is at most 40 years.

the problems then arise as the economy slowly contracts and people get poorer, the government has to fid ways of fending off blame - this usually results in a more and more repressive regime and increasing use of scapegoats to take the blame and the pressure of the government - lets hope Prayuth sees this coming and avoids it.

One of these "single power" regimes, had the word "Democratic" in its name.(that's a fact) They were "successful" in Sports. e.g.Gymnastics, Athletics, but there was widespread anabolic steroid use. Actually regime-sponsored anabolic steriod use.

Edited April 6, 2015 by meltingpot2015

[chooka]

I do not believe any facts produced by ant Thai Government or department

But you believe the pro government and government facts, because Prayuth has given the order that all statements, polls etc must be pro prayuth and the government. Anyone not towing the line faces execution. After these orders I don't believe a single pro government statement as they are made under duress.

[NeverSure]

There's a place near Thailand, yes, it's China. Is China a democracy ? Surely not. But China has had serious GDP growth per year, it's been going on for the last quarter-of-a-century.

It isn't over yet. Is a quarter century long enough to be the end history of a country?

Is economic gain for a few enough to make up the loss of freedom for 1.4 billion very poor people? You do realize that per capita, the Chinese are very poor people by Western standards?

Maybe find somewhere else to hold up as an example such as Cuba, North Korea or the failed Soviet Union?

[MaiChai]

Devalue baht is the answer. Start printing more money.

[cumgranosalum]

Much as I don't like the expression in the title, it is fair to say that most "single power" regimes fail when it comes to economics. This complex subject with links and knock-ons is far to intricate for a single body to deal with. the past tells us that most of these systems implode if not quickly the life-span is at most 40 years.

the problems then arise as the economy slowly contracts and people get poorer, the government has to fid ways of fending off blame - this usually results in a more and more repressive regime and increasing use of scapegoats to take the blame and the pressure of the government - lets hope Prayuth sees this coming and avoids it.

One of these "single power" regimes, had the word "Democratic" in its name.(that's a fact) They were "successful" in Sports. e.g.Gymnastics, Athletics, but there was widespread anabolic steroid use. Actually regime-sponsored anabolic steriod use.

steroids.jpgdownload.jpg

Sorry but your point is lost on me....can you explain?

BTW - "One of these "single power" regimes, had the word "Democratic" - you don't seriously believe that this is a guarantee of democracy do you?

Edited April 7, 2015 by cumgranosalum

[lostoday]

There's a place near Thailand, yes, it's China. Is China a democracy ? Surely not. But China has had serious GDP growth per year, it's been going on for the last quarter-of-a-century.

It isn't over yet. Is a quarter century long enough to be the end history of a country?

Is economic gain for a few enough to make up the loss of freedom for 1.4 billion very poor people? You do realize that per capita, the Chinese are very poor people by Western standards?

Maybe find somewhere else to hold up as an example such as Cuba, North Korea or the failed Soviet Union?

Lee Kuan Yew jailed his opponents, Stopped freedom of speech and the press and made Singapore an economic success. I know Americans are not really bothered by history and would rather get info from the telly but I do believe the British Empire did pretty well under Queen Victoria.

[issanaus]

Stupid headline and article that clearly demonstrates that the author does not know or choses to misrepresent what GDP is. GDP is only one measure of economic activity not the total economic activity. To disprove the whole "intellectual argument" - If the Government (or any other alternative government of Thailand) chose to legalise and regulate the drug, prostitution and gambling industries then that activity could be included in GDP, thus "Jacking up GDP".

[meltingpot2015]

Sorry but your point is lost on me....can you explain?

You would need to be familiar with irony.

One of these "single power" regimes, had the word "Democratic" - you don't seriously believe that this is a guarantee of democracy do you?

Only if you are really gullible.