Must be some very deep pockets behind some of Pattaya's bars/restaurants ..

[Rimkok]

Might be time to restate the central point I tried to make in my OP:

Songkran will need to be a complete turnaround for many of the bars and restaurants in this town to keep their doors open beyond May 2015 IMO.

Whether the root cause of that downturn is currency fluctuations or rising prices - or a combination of the two - my point was that I just dont grasp how many of these businesses have lasted this long. Even last night, when I thought there were a few more punters around, if I took photos of the people in the bars in central Pattaya and photoshopped out the Thais working there, they would have been very sparsely populated. I understand that the town has changed and no-one is immune from inflation, but the impact of a very strong baht in the wake of the greenback's resurgence seems to have reined in a lot of our 'disposable' income. I guess those still here in May can either laugh or grimace at this post - assuming it isnt simply another long forgotten prediction to add to the thousands made for Pattaya's future over the years

Your a right bundle of laughs!! Chill out <deleted>!!

[ExPratt]

I was in Walking street last night, busy but not rammed,

I would have no idea if the tourist numbers are 28 million, 65 Million or are up 5 million. What I do,know is there are a lot less Farang faces about now where there always used to be plenty of Farang faces ( I have to make this clear as last time I queried the Figures I was called a UDD Terrorist and sympathizer by Djamie)

TAT appear to be trying to convince themselves that all is well. It would help if they gave some clue as to how the figures are compiled. I dont think it helps people or businesses if they cannot get an accurate assessment of the future tourist trade

A couple of my mates have Bars/ Restaurants, they were making money up to a year or so ago , now its more of a "Ticking over" mode, problem being of course that "Ticking over" is not enough for many people or businesses

[gk10002000]

sadly, when things get slow the bad guys, mafia, protection rackets, extortion often don't also get slow. The bad guys still want their income and don't care how the locals or shopkeepers or gambling addicts get it. It is not like its always a percentage business agreement!

[jiipii]

I was just in Big C South Pattaya. All the tables that use to sell souvenirs near the food court are gone. So is the booth selling wine. Not enough tourists???

Can't post a link, but take a look at the article in the Bangkok Post today:

Teflon Thailand starts to flake

Interesting comment from the lady working in the car dealership.

Maybe this help?

<snip> Links to the Bangkok Post are not allowed, per their request.

[Nicolas32]

OMG so died i cant bloody believe it http://www.lk-metro.com/

[Pheat123]

Might be time to restate the central point I tried to make in my OP:

Songkran will need to be a complete turnaround for many of the bars and restaurants in this town to keep their doors open beyond May 2015 IMO.

Whether the root cause of that downturn is currency fluctuations or rising prices - or a combination of the two - my point was that I just dont grasp how many of these businesses have lasted this long. Even last night, when I thought there were a few more punters around, if I took photos of the people in the bars in central Pattaya and photoshopped out the Thais working there, they would have been very sparsely populated. I understand that the town has changed and no-one is immune from inflation, but the impact of a very strong baht in the wake of the greenback's resurgence seems to have reined in a lot of our 'disposable' income. I guess those still here in May can either laugh or grimace at this post - assuming it isnt simply another long forgotten prediction to add to the thousands made for Pattaya's future over the years

Patts has been the same this time of year for at least the last 10 years

Hardly any business will close as usual

Decent set ups do well as usual

[morrobay]

Might be time to restate the central point I tried to make in my OP:

Songkran will need to be a complete turnaround for many of the bars and restaurants in this town to keep their doors open beyond May 2015 IMO.

Whether the root cause of that downturn is currency fluctuations or rising prices - or a combination of the two - my point was that I just dont grasp how many of these businesses have lasted this long. Even last night, when I thought there were a few more punters around, if I took photos of the people in the bars in central Pattaya and photoshopped out the Thais working there, they would have been very sparsely populated. I understand that the town has changed and no-one is immune from inflation, but the impact of a very strong baht in the wake of the greenback's resurgence seems to have reined in a lot of our 'disposable' income. I guess those still here in May can either laugh or grimace at this post - assuming it isnt simply another long forgotten prediction to add to the thousands made for Pattaya's future over the years

Patts has been the same this time of year for at least the last 10 years

Hardly any business will close as usual

Decent set ups do well as usual

No , Mr Worldwide and many others have convinced me ( I dont go to bars but Ive talked to girls that work in go-go's and beer bars ) that this year and forward are not at all the same.

And if you are here in May,June, July, August @Pheat/123 pretty sure you will be convinced also.

[MrWorldwide]

These are only my personal observations and speculation re the fate of some businesses in Pattaya - for those who've been here for decades, it may simply be the natural order of the universe : the unwary buy into a bar or restaurant, lose their shirt and move on. My understanding is that pattern relied on someone else stepping in to snap up a 'bargain' and the cycle beginning anew, but the question I raised right from the start is whether that 'new money' would continue to flow in from foreigners with the world economy in the state it's currently in. Perhaps it will - I dont have a working crystal ball - but I've made my prediction and it's relatively mild compared to the picture painted by the Bangkok Post for Thailand's economy in 2016 in their article on Monday. I dont know if they have a political axe to grind, but it seemed to put into print a lot of the concerns expressed here and elsewhere over the last 10 months. As with any such doomsaying, Thailand has survived a host of disasters and continues to attract foreign investment, so I'll return you to your regular programming.

[morrobay]

These are only my personal observations and speculation re the fate of some businesses in Pattaya - for those who've been here for decades, it may simply be the natural order of the universe : the unwary buy into a bar or restaurant, lose their shirt and move on. My understanding is that pattern relied on someone else stepping in to snap up a 'bargain' and the cycle beginning anew, but the question I raised right from the start is whether that 'new money' would continue to flow in from foreigners with the world economy in the state it's currently in. Perhaps it will - I dont have a working crystal ball - but I've made my prediction and it's relatively mild compared to the picture painted by the Bangkok Post for Thailand's economy in 2016 in their article on Monday. I dont know if they have a political axe to grind, but it seemed to put into print a lot of the concerns expressed here and elsewhere over the last 10 months. As with any such doomsaying, Thailand has survived a host of disasters and continues to attract foreign investment, so I'll return you to your regular programming.

Right so business as usual has basically been a Ponzi/pyramid scheme. Not just for bars/restaurants but real estate and all of these other places that get renovated every year like those shops North side of Beach rd x Pattaya Klang. Not sure about interpretation of your last sentence ? But these pyramid schemes may have reached limit for many businesses. I suppose the Chinese mass tourism will carry other businesses forward.

Edited April 15, 2015 by morrobay

[Pheat123]

Might be time to restate the central point I tried to make in my OP:

Songkran will need to be a complete turnaround for many of the bars and restaurants in this town to keep their doors open beyond May 2015 IMO.

Whether the root cause of that downturn is currency fluctuations or rising prices - or a combination of the two - my point was that I just dont grasp how many of these businesses have lasted this long. Even last night, when I thought there were a few more punters around, if I took photos of the people in the bars in central Pattaya and photoshopped out the Thais working there, they would have been very sparsely populated. I understand that the town has changed and no-one is immune from inflation, but the impact of a very strong baht in the wake of the greenback's resurgence seems to have reined in a lot of our 'disposable' income. I guess those still here in May can either laugh or grimace at this post - assuming it isnt simply another long forgotten prediction to add to the thousands made for Pattaya's future over the years

Patts has been the same this time of year for at least the last 10 years

Hardly any business will close as usual

Decent set ups do well as usual

No , Mr Worldwide and many others have convinced me ( I dont go to bars but Ive talked to girls that work in go-go's and beer bars ) that this year and forward are not at all the same.

And if you are here in May,June, July, August @Pheat/123 pretty sure you will be convinced also.

uep

Time will tell

Same every year

Talk of loads of business closing never happens

Maybe this year is same same but different

[Banzai99]

I've been in Pattaya since 1990 and since 1990 I've been hearing that Pattaya is on its last legs.

[MrWorldwide]

I've been in Pattaya since 1990 and since 1990 I've been hearing that Pattaya is on its last legs.

Last legs ? No. Major shakeout of the chronic oversupply of businesses which wouldnt even exist in many other cities ? Yes - at least in my completely naive opinion based purely on what I see at various hours of the day in this lowest of 'high' seasons. I'm not trying to predict the collapse of the condo market - although I think there are some serious question marks there - or anything else on that scale : I'll leave that to our other crystal ballers.

If I'm wrong, and there is still a ready supply of Westerners willing to put up the money so their GF has a business in their absence, so be it - I just dont know how many of the years since your arrival in 1990 have been marked by the combination of a strong baht and continued economic uncertainty in Western economies. As I mentioned earlier, if none of this comes to pass I will just be another in a long line of false prophets. FWIW, I believe we'll begin to see bars and restaurants closing by June/July and many wont magically reappear under new management in December - in most cases, it will just be natural attrition in a Disneyland economy where that rule doesnt seem to have applied for many of those 25 years.

[fey]

Great, the sooner these beer/whore bars are closed the better and make way for decent businesses. Not being a drinker its very hard for me to understand why someone would pay $4 for a beer in the bottom of a townhouse with miserable staff and a lot more in well positioned whore bars. If your drinking session lasts 14hrs each day you should either contact AA or at least obtain adequate health insurance for your kidney transplant. Have a look in restaurants, malls and shops, you may see it is a little busier.

i just started buying beers at 7-11 and drinking at home. much easier. and i dont have to see other people acting drunk. seems to work great so far.

[MrWorldwide]

Since I'm already in this up to my ears, please allow me to dig myself in deeper.

It occurred to me as I sat in Made in Thailand last night that one of the reasons half the town's bars could close without many here noticing is that the number of TVers willing to admit that they regularly frequent the bars seems to be quite small, esp as many try to distance themselves from the stereotype of the boozing sexpat. If you told me a lot of the mobile phone shops were going under due to a lack of customers, my care factor would be zero and I doubt that i would even notice unless it literally left a gaping hole in the shopfronts along Second Road. I go to TukCom rarely, but I'm sure that if I walked into that first floor and it was half-empty, I would notice - I wouldnt shed a tear, but I'd notice and the same applies to the shops on the Third Floor at Central Festival.

Until you actually venture into some of the bigger bar complexes, its not immediately apparent just how ridiculous the oversupply really is. Close one of the big bars on Beach Road and it would stand out like a sore thumb - close 5 smaller bars in one of the big complexes and chances are it wont even register with the majority of the pedestrian traffic on the soi outside the complex. Even if one of the Beach Road bars did go under - and I'm skeptical that will be the case - someone else will almost certainly jump at the chance to get into a prime location : the same doesnt apply to a cookie-cutter bar buried in a complex on Second Road.

This is a photo from inside the Drinking St complex near Dolphin Roundabout - the last time I went down there they charged me 90 baht for a Leo and I was one of the about 20 punters. I'm told that the complex does very good business during Songkran - I'll try and get down there tomorrow to see how accurate that statement is, but it's not hard to see how half this complex could close without many of us even noticing.

[craigt3365]

Great posts, mr WW. That pic looks like it was taken during the day time? If so, maybe a better indicator would be around 9pm???

I was at a major seafood restaurant in southern Jomtien last nigth. I haven't gone there in years due to the weekend crowds, but my friends insisted. Was barely 1/2 full. We got there at 6pm to watch the sunset. It was maybe 10% full. We left at 9:30 and it was maybe 25% full. Never seen that before. Very strange. Not even a single tour bus.

[MrWorldwide]

Thanks craig, and I agree that the daylight hours usually arent the best time to gauge numbers - if anything, many of us have complained to Stickman that he's been back in his hotel at midnight then dashed back to BKK to report that Pattaya was dead after the sun went down : I think you need to see a venue at 1am to really get an accurate picture, and I've experienced MiT and Diana many times at that hour. As I said, I need to get some photos - will endeavour to do so over the next few days.

* fwiw, some of the bars on Buakhow and Beach Road do their best trade during the day and are sparsely populated after 7pm, but they are the exceptions IME. I've never quite understood why many of the bars elsewhere even bother opening at 4 or 5pm when they struggle to get any customers for the first 3-4 hours - I guess the girls need time to eat, do their makeup and watch a Thai soap or two.

[ExPratt]

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Sounds like Pattaya is burning, time to get some popcorn and a cold drink . Pattaya is a mess, outdated roads, flooding, crime, A big city on the water and they have no idea how to take advantage of this. Walking street on the ocean side should be all open air bars and restaurants with huge patios to enjoy the ocean breeze and moonlit sky.

How about changing the traffic flow on beach road and second road, knock some buildings down so Jomtein second road and beach road Pattaya come together at some point and second road Pattaya joins smoothly into Jomtein second road. If you had some Engineering vision you could see this easily. No more sharp curve at walking street and of course getting rid of all the crap parked on beach road.

Seeing this will never happen Pattaya will slowly get worse. Instead of building something like a bypass or over pass the are going to build a short little tunnel which will not to anything to relieve traffic congestion.

Bangkok is no different,

Was there over the long weekend, In Nana go go's, i visited 6 at around 10 pm, there were 2-3 customers in each.

Patpong was totally dead.

Pratunam Markets, you could actually easily walk

Not strictly true
I am in Nana now
A lot of the bars are packed out even during the day
Spankys/rainbow 4 gogo bars were packed out last night
Loads of tourists about

i dont know if they were under orders but on Wednesday night half of Nana was shut and the other half pretty dead. The same as Cowboy. That may have been expats avoiding a soaking.Bangkok bites in soi 7 was pretty full

[Pheat123]

Since I'm already in this up to my ears, please allow me to dig myself in deeper.

It occurred to me as I sat in Made in Thailand last night that one of the reasons half the town's bars could close without many here noticing is that the number of TVers willing to admit that they regularly frequent the bars seems to be quite small, esp as many try to distance themselves from the stereotype of the boozing sexpat. If you told me a lot of the mobile phone shops were going under due to a lack of customers, my care factor would be zero and I doubt that i would even notice unless it literally left a gaping hole in the shopfronts along Second Road. I go to TukCom rarely, but I'm sure that if I walked into that first floor and it was half-empty, I would notice - I wouldnt shed a tear, but I'd notice and the same applies to the shops on the Third Floor at Central Festival.

Until you actually venture into some of the bigger bar complexes, its not immediately apparent just how ridiculous the oversupply really is. Close one of the big bars on Beach Road and it would stand out like a sore thumb - close 5 smaller bars in one of the big complexes and chances are it wont even register with the majority of the pedestrian traffic on the soi outside the complex. Even if one of the Beach Road bars did go under - and I'm skeptical that will be the case - someone else will almost certainly jump at the chance to get into a prime location : the same doesnt apply to a cookie-cutter bar buried in a complex on Second Road.

This is a photo from inside the Drinking St complex near Dolphin Roundabout - the last time I went down there they charged me 90 baht for a Leo and I was one of the about 20 punters. I'm told that the complex does very good business during Songkran - I'll try and get down there tomorrow to see how accurate that statement is, but it's not hard to see how half this complex could close without many of us even noticing.

Drinking street bars do not normally get busy until 12.00pm at the earliest

Most of the punters are Indians ,Arabs

[slipperylobster]

Songkran must be a disaster for bars/restaurants. Many people (like me) who would normally go out to eat/drink have to hibernate for a week.

The bars are full of people during songkran. It is one of the biggest parties of the year.

In chiang mai, they put the bars on restricted hours. i managed 3 beers before the mamasan grabbed my last and hid it from the police.

[SGX]

Generally these bars are not just owned as a one off , You probably find the vendor has several other establishments operating in country of origin, Thai bars funded from ofshore cash or profits accordingly, good luck.

[MobileContent]

I am doing a lot of business with Centara in Pattaya and they have been fully booked all over Sonkran and they have blocks on rooms for May, June and August.

Not sure how the small hotels are doing but the big hotels look like they can sustain any situation.

[MrWorldwide]

I am doing a lot of business with Centara in Pattaya and they have been fully booked all over Sonkran and they have blocks on rooms for May, June and August.

Not sure how the small hotels are doing but the big hotels look like they can sustain any situation.

Agreed, but this thread is about bars and smaller restaurants, not the fate of the Hilton hotel chain. I dont go near Hard Rock Cafe or anything of that ilk either, but I assume it would take more than a couple of poor high seasons to force them to sell up.

[shaurene]

overpriced and overrated so shouldnt be a surprise

I had accident on 3rd April fell down the stairs back ward, ambulance, hospital, eight head stickers, flew out to New Zealand 6th April. So missed it all thank you.

[jamie2009]

Songhkran is not a money spinner for Bar owners as no one drinks very much they just throw water over each other and any one passing. I occasionally go to Beach Road during the day but not this week so how many more regular customers do the same, who wants to sit having a cold beer and get dowsed by freezing cold water. It also keeps a lot of people indoors so the Restaurants suffer as well.

[MrWorldwide]

overpriced and overrated so shouldnt be a surprise

I had accident on 3rd April fell down the stairs back ward, ambulance, hospital, eight head stickers, flew out to New Zealand 6th April. So missed it all thank you.

Commiserations - that sounds very nasty but its good that you were cleared to fly so soon after your accident. I went face first down a set of stairs at a cinema complex here last year and I still dont know how I avoided breaking my neck and/or someone else's. Broke my shoulder in 3 places, weeks of pain before I could get a decent night's sleep : still dont know how I would have gone without the Thai girl who was with me at the time. Just climbing into the taxi to go to Pattaya Memorial was an experience I'd prefer to forget - needless to say, the staff at the cinemas completely ignored the entire incident.

Anyone who comes out of a movie while the credits are rolling expecting the house lights to be turned on needs to just stand back and wait till that happens - years of scurrying down stairs without incident, one misstep and you're airborne.

[raro]

I plead guilty for bringing the economy down. Stocked up my freezer and fridge and didn't really leave home the entire week. Had a great time with the family and enjoyed my pool. Was probably the cheapest week in the year so far :-D

[MrWorldwide]

I dont think it was you, raro - its a perfect storm according to certain Thais.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/817911-thailands-economic-outlook-worst-in-40-years/?utm_source=newsletter-20150417-0732&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news

Oddly, the one optimistic prediction is this one:

With the exception of tourism sector which is projected to grow 13.7 percent with 28.8 million tourist arrivals

OK , that's 13.7% up on a dismal 2014 result, but surely its heartening for a town that depends so heavily on tourism for it's income ? I guess the skeptics will maintain that many of TAT's figures are completely manufactured anyway - I can only go on what I see on the streets and leave the shiny bums in Bangkok to their projections.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Thailand

Tourist arrivals in 2014 totalled 24.7 million, a drop of 6.6% from 2013. Revenues derived from tourism amounted to THB1.13 trillion, down 5.8% from the previous year. Kobkarn Wattanavarangkul, Thailand's Minister of Tourism and Sports, attributed the decline to the political crisis in the first-half of 2014 which dissuaded many potential visitors from visiting Thailand. Tourism officials also pointed to the dramatic fall in the value of the Russian ruble which has damaged the economies of popular Russian destinations such as Phuket and Pattaya

[Anthony5]

Today in Big C extra they had set up 2 fridges instead of the usual 1 for the goods that near expiration, both stocked to the top, and they still couldn't store all the goods.

Think that says enough about how business is in Pattaya, during a period that is considered high season.

[jamie2009]

Songkran must be a disaster for bars/restaurants. Many people (like me) who would normally go out to eat/drink have to hibernate for a week.

The bars are full of people during songkran. It is one of the biggest parties of the year.

There busy with people stood outside throwing water, how many are drinking beer ?

[geordiel]

Great, the sooner these beer/whore bars are closed the better and make way for decent businesses. Not being a drinker its very hard for me to understand why someone would pay $4 for a beer in the bottom of a townhouse with miserable staff and a lot more in well positioned whore bars. If your drinking session lasts 14hrs each day you should either contact AA or at least obtain adequate health insurance for your kidney transplant. Have a look in restaurants, malls and shops, you may see it is a little busier.

As you are not into "beer/whore bars", it is very hard for me to understand why you live in Pattaya and what brought you there in the first place.