Demands down, costs up: Business Survey

[Thaivisa News]

Bangkok: – The economic outlook for 2015 remains on the downward trend as demands are weak and costs are rising, said the Centre of Economic and Business Forecast in a survey released yesterday.

The business community has voiced optimism, however, on the recovery in this year’s fourth quarter due to anticipated increase in government spending in the third quarter.

For the past three months, sales have dropped 11.93 per cent, advance orders decline by 8.74 per cent and exports decrease by 12.02 per cent, the centre’s director Thanawat Phonvichai said.

The average cost of production has soared 9.27 per cent.

The survey was conducted on the sampling of 801 businesses in agriculture, commerce, services and manufacturing.

The first half of this year has been projected for continuing slowdown.

Business leaders have called for the government to inject money in the speedy manner through investment and budgetary spending for the third quarter.

Should the government succeed in boosting the spending, this year’s growth could be achieved at 2.5 to 3 per cent.

Out of 10 points, the business community gave the 4.2 score card for the government’s handling on the economy.

The centre has ranked 10 rising and 10 falling business trends in light of the prevailing economic doldrums.

The rising businesses are medical, health and beautification; tourism; hotel and restaurant; education; life insurance; construction; information technology; commercial banking; transportation and online media.

The businesses on the down trend are agriculture machinery, retail, rubber processing industry, car dealership, car hire purchase, LPG station and installation for vehicles, charter flight, frozen sea food and clothing and garment.

In view of the slowdown, the centre has revised this year’s growth projection to 3.2 per cent from 3.5 to 4 per cent.

[yellowboat]

"Out of 10 points, the business community gave the 4.2 score card for the government’s handling on the economy."

That is probably a good score for a junta. These business professionals perhaps should not be so quick to look for a government handout, as they have gotten what they deserved if they supported the coup.

[mike324]

Business that are on the down trend are all related to the world economy and government schemes, it shouldn't come as a surprise.

[quandow]

How many times have wee seen something like this:

Hotel Manager: "Hmmm, business is slow, so let's raise the rates on our rooms!"

[elgordo38]

Its pull a rabbit out of a hat time. Lets hear the one where inflation is close to zero.

[elgordo38]

Quote In view of the slowdown, the centre has revised this year’s growth projection to 3.2 per cent from 3.5 to 4 per cent. I wonder by years end what we will be down to and it could be a -%

[Robbie Dye]

Surely the Baht has to move soon?

[Srikcir]

The economic facts cited by Thanawat are correct and alarming. The Center's revised growth for 2015 at 3.2% is still probably high and more likely will fall in a range of 2.4%-3.0%. A growth rate of 2.4% or less will constitute deflation over a six month period.

Contrast the Center's projection with recent National Economic and Social Development Board's forecast for Thai economic growth at 3.5-4.5% yesterday by Deputy Transport Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith at a meeting before the committee of economic ministers, chaired by Gen. Prayut.

As the economy predictably worsens, the Junta's propoganda will intensify its optimistic predictions and take credit for the alleged well-being of the nation under its rule.

Under the 2007 Constitution the Junta-led government would lose a vote of confidence and put the government up to new elections, likely with new leadership. But the reality is that the Thai people have no power to determine their government and hold the Junta-led government accountable for the worsening economy. But the Thai people do have personal and economic power that can challenge Junta leadership.

The beginning of 2015Q3 is going to become a very messy political and economic environment, especially if combined with an endorsed constitution without a public referendum. Prayut may find his partnership agreements with Russia and China will do little to secure the life of the Junta.

[Naam]

Surely the Baht has to move soon?

big move thursday after lunch

[soalbundy]

I thought the PM said things would improve in the second quarter,he ought to speak to his people more

[yellowboat]

I thought the PM said things would improve in the second quarter,he ought to speak to his people more

Mr. Article 44 is told what he wants to hear by his underlings, so they can return home safely every night.

Edited April 19, 2015 by yellowboat