Thai politics: Structural changes to the economy now an imperative

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE
Structural changes to the economy now an imperative
Sasithorn Ongdee

BANGKOK: -- Between the "yellow card" for illegal fishing given by the European Union (EU) and a "drop" in export growth target for this year to only 1 per cent, which one is more worrying for Thailand?

A looming export crisis became clearer after Commerce Minister Chatchai Sarikulya confirmed that the export growth target for this year would be at least 1 per cent, which is in accordance with the private economic houses' revised target, down from the previous estimate of 4 per cent. This came after a drop of 4 per cent in exports in the first two months of the year. That could also imply falling short of the gross domestic product growth target of 3.5-4 per cent.

The "mission" to boost exports is back in the spotlight, forcing the government to mobilise all strategies to restore a positive figure. Some are working more intensely on finding new markets and pushing for every product category to fit in potential markets, to make up for loss in exports to major markets like the US, EU, China and Japan.

Perhaps, the "baht" may be affected, as exporters are mounting pressure to depreciate the currency blaming its strength for the drop in exports.

This is quite a reasonable excuse for the drop in exports amid the global economic slowdown, putting Thailand in the same bracket as other countries with shrunken exports. Only three of 40 countries - China, Switzerland, and Chile - reported in a survey by Global Trade Atlas enjoyed an increase in trade.

Meanwhile, the EU's warning over "illegal fishing" - though this does not necessarily mean trade sanctions on Thai fishery products - will act as a dampener and further lower exports. Thailand is the third-largest exporter of fishery products to the EU, worth US$700 million, behind Japan and the US. A downgrade could cost the country exports worth about US$500 million.

To fix this problem quickly, the government may use Article 44 of the provisional charter as a wand.

In the short run, different methods can be adopted to shore up the falling exports to at least be on par year on year.

But in the long term, the export crisis should be fixed at its root for that's where the problems are embedded.

All the problems on this matter have been discussed by concerned people, including experts from the public and private sectors for years, but nothing concrete has happened in terms of achievements.

The strategic plan to boost exports proposed by the private sector to the government a few days ago is something it has never done in the past. The plan mostly focuses on a structural change in state agencies - the Industry Ministry and Commerce Minister are proposed to be merged - in a bid to enable supervision of private enterprises in an integrated way. The other points are about a reduction of regulatory barriers and support for research and development, and human resources.

Many economic gurus have said that over a period, Thailand should undergo a structural change in its economy, creating more of its own champion products like the "Apple" brand of the US or the luxury bag brands from European countries to boost its exports beyond agricultural products. Though the Kingdom had the pride of place in Asean and is among the top 10 in the world as a base for car production and exports, we should not forget that's just as part of Japan's car-supply chain.

How can we boost our export growth with the prices of commodities like rice, rubber and sugar on a declining trend?

Whether one considers the "yellow card" or the flat export growth as more worrying, if the government does not outline a long-term plan and execute it in parallel, we might see more widespread use of the "wand" as long as the junta stays in power.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Structural-changes-to-the-economy-now-an-imperativ-30258645.html


-- The Nation 2015-04-24

[kalbo123]

Yes, I think Thailand should create a Apple like product... but who can develop that?

Where is the Thai silicon valley?

Where is the Thai Stanford?

And would not like any country want a to develop a Apple like product?

Wishful thinking.

[NCFC]

Re-arraanging deck chairs on the Thaitanic

[curveball]

If you would like to see a dramatic change in the Thai economy, do the following;

Devalue the currency.

Allow foreigners to own two rai of land and the house they build on it.

Allow foreigners to own a business outright, without large pointless capitol requirements, Thai investors and 4 needless Thai employees. Also, reduce the red tape.

Create a long term visa without the need for deposits in a Thai bank.

Increase your internet speed and improve the infrastructure.

If you would like to see a positive change to Thai culture, do the above, gut the educational system and start over.

[kingalfred]

Only "structural changes" likely to happen are more empty condos being built in Bangkok! Oh, guess thats not a change.

Edited April 24, 2015 by kingalfred

[Suffinator]

How can Thailand's economic woes be averted ...

1. Devalue the Baht

2. Read the numerous UN declarations that Thailand is signatory to; most importantly those on Human Rights and then adhere to them. Change the laws so that Human Traffickers and those enslaving people (notably in the Fishing Industry) face the death penalty and that businesses are stripped of all their assets.

3. Change the laws so that corruption is punishable as an act of Treason with a minimum of 25 years imprisonment with ALL assets being confiscated.

4. Reform education. Swallow your stupid pride and go talk to Finland and follow their education model; labelled as the best in the world it makes only sense to follow it and implement it.

I'm sure there are others but surely Prayut wants, ney demands, reform .... alas none of the above is likely to change until the EU, US, UK and other nations slam the doors in their face and refuse to do business with them until they comply. Their UN membership should also be revoked until they are able to comply.

The underlying issue here is that they appear incapable of long-term critical thinking where change is consider progressive; they appear to only focus on the here and now and like a cowboy builder botch a job so that it looks fine on the surface but underneath the house is collapsing.

All these issues are nothing new and it's now turning into a crisis as they attempt to divert economic disaster and yet despite all this Prayut and his merry band continue with their rhetoric that the EU is not going to impose a ban because we are putting plans together ... you know the problems so plans only play a minor role; what the EU wants is for action and history clearly indicates that such is not a strong suit of Thailand, it's leaders or people.

What is really shameful is that there are a number of decent and highly educated Thais out there; ones that are not and cannot be corrupted but unfortunately most of these have been accused of Lesse Majesty offenses and live in exile. These people are vilified because the elite have no intention of real change as it's not profitable. They will carry on putting a band-aid on a gaping wound and cry like babies in the hope that sanctions will never be applied against their inhumane and despicable behavior.

[elgordo38]

Re-arraanging deck chairs on the Thaitanic

They have already rearranged the deck chairs in Phuket. Can that be considered as structural change?

[Srikcir]

Let's wait and see if the Junta can really bring the price of lottery tickets down first before pursuing a global marketing strategy.