NESDB slashes Thai economic growth forecast

[webfact]

ECONOMY
NESDB slashes growth forecast
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The Office of National Economic and Social Development Board today announced the downward revision in the Thai economic growth forecast, citing poor exports as the main reason.

The growth forecast is cut from 3.5-4.5 per cent to 3-4 per cent for this year, while inflation is expected to be minus 0.3 per cent or expand by only 0.7 per cent.

It explained that Thailand’s exports have not benefited from the recovery in global economy. Though, it cited that the Bank of Thailand’s two rate cuts support economic growth, pushing downward the dollar/baht exchange rate which should boost exports from the second quarter onwards.

The Thai economy this year would be supported by public spending, a recovery in private consumption and investment, the continued growth in tourist arrivals, the improvement in industrial production, and low oil prices.

Yet, the weakening euro and Japanese yen against US dollar as well as declining agricultural commodity prices would keep pressuring exports, private demand and the overall economic growth. The economic recovery this year, after the 0.7 per cent growth last year, would not be spreading to all sectors of the Thai economy.

The NESDB expects Thailand to post only 0.2 per cent growth in exports in 2015, while household consumption would expand by 2.3 per cent. The current account surplus for this year is expected to hit 3.9 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/NESDB-slashes-growth-forecast-30260353.html

-- The Nation 2015-05-18

[whatawonderfulday]

Utter rubbish, the General will threaten the use section 44 so not to allow it happen !!!!!!! Expect a revised forecast soon

[toybits]

The time of this report could not have been better for Mr. Taksin.

[shirtless]

These figures seem to change like the weather where did they get their inflation figures from i see things going up by 7-10 percent in one movement i cant take these guys seriously .

[webfact]

Thai economy grows a sluggish 0.3% in Q1
AFP

BANGKOK: -- Thailand's economy expanded 0.3 percent on-quarter in January-March, official data showed Monday, highlighting the task ahead for the military junta that seized power in a coup last year vowing to kickstart growth after months of political instability.

And in another blow to the country's year-old government the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESB) lowered its growth forecast for this year.

Year-on-year first quarter growth came in at three percent, the NESB said.

But Krystal Tan, an Asia economist at Capital Economics, said that figure was "exaggerated by a low base in the first quarter of 2014, when growth contracted and political unrest was at its peak".

At the time Bangkok was paralysed by protests against the democratically elected government of Yingluck Shinawatra, whose administration was eventually toppled in the coup.

The NESB said it expected the economy to grow 3.0-4.0 percent this year, down from an earlier prediction of 3.5-4.5 percent. Growth came in at just 0.7 percent in 2014, its weakest pace in three years.

In February, Thailand's finance minister said he had been told by junta chief Prayut Chan-O-Cha to push for at least 4.0 percent growth for 2015, something many analysts thought optimistic.

The World Bank estimates growth for 2015 will be closer to 3.5 percent.

The ruling junta has vowed to pump billions of dollars into the economy, mainly through long-planned infrastructure schemes but analysts say government spending and increased tourist revenues have failed to offset falling exports and weakening demand at home.

"There has been no sign of a strong economic recovery," Benjarong Suwankiri, an economist at TMB Bank in Bangkok told Bloomberg News.

"Growth will continue to be sluggish, as only the government's spending has showed signs of picking up, while consumption, investment and exports are still very weak."

Thailand's key agricultural sectors -- including rice and rubber -- have struggled with falling global prices, curbing the amount of crops produced and taking money out of Thais' pockets.

The country also remains one of Southeast Asia's most indebted economies, discouraging consumer confidence.

Last month Thailand's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate from 1.75 percent to 1.5 percent, its lowest since July 2010.


-- (c) Copyright AFP 2015-05-18

[emilymat]

These forecasts!

[elgordo38]

These figures seem to change like the weather where did they get their inflation figures from i see things going up by 7-10 percent in one movement i cant take these guys seriously .

Governments all over the world are preaching the same message.Thailand just got around to reading from the same page. We the people who actually go in the store and buy things know this is all a load of B.S. world wide I would say your estimate of 7-10% is about right. Its all a load of BS to keep interest rates low, wages low and so their big business buddies can borrow our money for next to nothing and it keeps government borrowing low so they can pay the interest on their mountains of debt they now all sit on. If interest rates were where they should be at 5 to 6 percent all these governments would collapse they could not afford the rates. Its all a scam, collusion between big business and their government buddies. They say public spending will increase I highly doubt it people are now over leveraged and banks are tightening the rules. Its all propaganda. They want to give you that warm fuzzy feeling.

[lungmi]

The time of this report could not have been better for Mr. Taksin.

Taksin, the Chinese King of Siam?

[Srikcir]

" inflation is expected to be minus 0.3 per cent or expand by only 0.7 per cent."

Can we now use the "D" word ?

DEFLATION

[Srikcir]

“The ruling junta has vowed to pump billions of dollars into the economy, mainly through long-planned infrastructure schemes but analysts say government spending and increased tourist revenues have failed to offset falling exports and weakening demand at home.”

The reason for the government’s failure is from INACTION. Prayut deliberately refuses to inject capital into the economy to create economic growth. He’s willing to commit Thailand to borrowing foreign funds for the next 20 years for infrastructure projects but won’t spend a baht of the Thai treasury to capitalize (aka “stimulate”) the economy and grow GDP:

“there is no need for the government to issue an economic stimulus package to solve uncontrollable factors.” PM for economy M.R. Pridiyathorn Devakula, 2015-05-06

Already the Krungthai Bank lowered Thailand’s growth forecast in 2015 from 3.9% to 3.25%. More likely it will be closer to 2.5% by year’s end. Thailand will remain the weakest economy in southeast Asia well into 2016.

Well done Prayut. You have made Thailand the Hub of Economic Failure.