Thaksin wants strong support base before contemplating return home

[jackanapes]

thaksin mentioned traditional thai elites organised the coup who are these thai elites the so called yellow shirts and how did they get so powerful?

[mikemac]

Has Thaksin still got a large support base in Thailand ? Is he deluded ?

Does Thaksin's support base in Thailand outnumber the Thais who want to vote for Abhisit ??

How do we know ? How are we going to know ? Are there people on ThaiVisa who are deluded about how many people in Thailand support Thaksin ??

Are there any alternatives to the Democrats and the PTP ? Of course there are.

If it was up to me (meaning if I was in charge of the coup/government) I would ban both the PTP and the Dems and hold elections tomorrow.

They seem to be the ones who caused all the trouble to start with.

Getting the PM to shut down the Dems might be a bit of a problem but if it means bringing peace (and happiness) to the people then that's what I would do.

[rametindallas]

rametindallas, you're not a troll, would you like to answer a direct question ?

Lets just say that it is the case that Thaksin's support base in Thailand is small, yes, lots of people on ThaiVisa are correct, Thaksin is deluded when thinking that he still has a support base in Thailand. They might be right.

Okay, lets have an election, and surely, Abhisit will get a higher percentage of the vote than Thaksin. Maybe six or seven per cent more votes. This means Abhisit will have more MPs than Thaksin, and Abhisit can be declared as the democratically elected leader of Thailand.

Yes, Thailand can then declare itself a democracy, and have full political links with the West restored.

There will be an election; there always is an election... eventually. As for as Abhist being a candidate, he is not charismatic and has blood on his hands; rightly or wrongly. When you write of Thaksin being a candidate or getting votes, thats impossible as he is a convicted felon so it will have to be a 'nominee', such as Samak, Somchai, and Yingluck were, representing Thaksin who support Thaksin's policies. He has thrown so many of his loyal, possible leaders 'under the bus' that I couldn't begin to guess who that nominee would be With his funding and organization, any party representing Thaksin has as good a chance of winning an election as any I know of. The 'monkey wrench' in all this is the crazy new methods of electing representatives as formulated in the proposed new convention and supposedly based on the German model. I have no idea how that is going to work so I really can't comment yet. Thailand is much more acceptable to world powers as a democracy and even the most benevolent, hard-working, and honest military government is still a military government and not the 'will of the people'. Therefore I patiently wait for democracy to return and hope venal politicians don't bend the rules to fit their will as Dr. Thaksin and his nominee governments have done in the past.

Thanks for that, rametindallas !

Okay, Abhisit can easily be replaced and the Democrats can have a new leader. Yes, when I say Thaksin, I mean a Thaksin proxy, but we all know that a Thaksin proxy or nominee will be taking orders from Thaksin and carrying out those orders.

You say that "With his funding and organization, any party representing Thaksin has as good a chance of winning an election as any I know of" !! Well yes, I agree with your comment. Do you feel, if the junta was able to carry out a ban on the 500 baht per vote bribe, do you reckon the Thaksin Party can still win ?

What about people on ThaiVisa who feel that any parties taking part in a general election should be banned from having populist policies ? Do you feel this is reasonable ? Or do you feel that in a democratic vote, parties should be allowed whatever populist policies they like ??

Do you feel, if the junta was able to carry out a ban on the 500 baht per vote bribe, do you reckon the Thaksin Party can still win ?

Sure, why not? He is very charismatic, has great organizational skills, tons of money, and though there is no way to stop vote buying, since the vote buying is done by all sides they cancel each other's advantage. Who's nominee party won the first election after the 2006 coup? (Thaksin's People's Power Party; Samak Sundaravej) As to who will be Thaksin's nominee; I thought he was scraping the bottom of the barrel to have his no-gravitas, no-experience, no-leadership qualities, no-appearance of independence, baby sister run to be PM. I can't imaging who's left that he can trust. It doesn't matter who the Democrats have as party head, they just don't have the popularity. Now, if Prayut were to run in the next election, he would definitely give any Thaksin nominee a 'run for his money'. Thai people are not as bothered by having the military run things as Westerners.

What about people on ThaiVisa who feel that any parties taking part in a general election should be banned from having populist policies ?

My own personal view is that statements like, "I'll make everyone rich" should be banned but any populist policy should have to be accompanied by a cost/benefit analysis; preferably by a University or other independent organization. If that had been done with the promised Rice Scheme, Thailand would have hundreds of billions of Baht still in the state coffers and not in the pockets of crooks who abused the policy.

This is a forum populated mostly by non-Thais and, therefore, they have no voting rights and their opinion affects the course of Thai politics about as much as a fart in a typhoon. It doesn't matter what posters think or write; we are just voicing our opinions or venting our spleens so it doesn't matter what we feel. Only Thais' opinions count but, like in the US, the government never listens to the opinion of the people and only listens to those who donate or share the spoils.

Time will reveal all.

[billd766]

There is something major wrong in this country.

Mr T is again right.

The whole thing was carefully planned and staged

Suthep should have been locked up for preventing and sabotaging previous elections...

That a serious crime we could see it all on Thai news..

But he was with the Elite and so it was according to their plan

Before you can lock Suthep (or anybody else up for that matter) there is first the little matter of charging him with a crime, the prosecution has to argue their case in the court and win it. One of the things they will need is untainted evidence and proof of the said crime.

Assuming that all works and the courts find him guilty he is then let out on bail for appeals and finally if the appeals fail he should go to jail.

Now you said

quote "The whole thing was carefully planned and staged

Suthep should have been locked up for preventing and sabotaging previous elections...

That a serious crime we could see it all on Thai news..

OK. Where is the proof and evidence that is what HE did. If you have it then please present it to the government and if they believe you and get all the evidence together they can charge him with a crime.

You also said

Quote" There is something major wrong in this country. Mr T is again right."

Now as I remember the facts Thaksin went through all the above and was found guilty even though at that time the country was under the control of the PPP led by his brother in law Somchai.

Instead of appealing however, Thaksin fled the country and became a fugitive from justice.

Is that the act of an innocent man?

Abhisit and Suthep were charged with MURDER but pleaded innocent as did Thaksin.

Where are they both now?

What a surprise they are still in Thailand though as they had been charged by Tarit Pengdith they could equally have claimed that it was political just the same as Thaksin and fled the country. However they stayed to fight the case in the courts which IS the action of innocent men.

[Tchooptip]

thasin was the peoples choice of champions this just shows how gullible the masses are in Thailand they still speak his name with nothing but praise ,

"they still speak his name with nothing but praise"

Certainly not most of the Thais I know!

[sawadee1947]

When Taksin was elected to lead the country....

I remember in those days that you had to line up in front of real estate agents their offices in order to buy a property...(so busy with buyers then )

Economics was so booming at that time...All was making money no one was complaining.

Look around you how it is nowadays?

meanwhile most Foreigners have left Thailand new winner Spain..

well, I agree with you. He was able to see the bigger picture and future of developing Thailand. If I'm right he was mainly convicted because lese majesty?

[tonbridgebrit]

rametindallas and bild766, so you both don't like Thaksin, but you both still reckon that his support base in Thailand might be greater than Abhisit's support base ?

On the issue of the removal of the 500 baht per vote bribe, yes, I also feel that this still means that the Thaksin proxy can still win without the 500 baht bribe !

On the issue of Prayut running, well, yes, I do agree Prayut's chances of beating Thaksin are greater than Abhisit's chances of beating Thaksin. Now, if Abhisit was to boycott the next election, and we see a race between Thaksin and Prayut (and also have the little parties as well), well, yes, I reckon Prayut will win it !

Yes, Prayut can unite the anti-Thaksinites and win, but Abhisit running (and Prayut as well) will split the anti-Thaksinite vote. The Thaksin support base is big, but it's not that big.

[Skywalker69]

When Taksin was elected to lead the country....

I remember in those days that you had to line up in front of real estate agents their offices in order to buy a property...(so busy with buyers then )

Economics was so booming at that time...All was making money no one was complaining.

Look around you how it is nowadays?

meanwhile most Foreigners have left Thailand new winner Spain..

well, I agree with you. He was able to see the bigger picture and future of developing Thailand. If I'm right he was mainly convicted because lese majesty?

If I'm right he was mainly convicted because lese majesty?

He absolut was not! You have some reading to do. Google is your best friend.

[Skywalker69]

rametindallas and bild766, so you both don't like Thaksin, but you both still reckon that his support base in Thailand might be greater than Abhisit's support base ?

On the issue of the removal of the 500 baht per vote bribe, yes, I also feel that this still means that the Thaksin proxy can still win without the 500 baht bribe !

On the issue of Prayut running, well, yes, I do agree Prayut's chances of beating Thaksin are greater than Abhisit's chances of beating Thaksin. Now, if Abhisit was to boycott the next election, and we see a race between Thaksin and Prayut (and also have the little parties as well), well, yes, I reckon Prayut will win it !

Yes, Prayut can unite the anti-Thaksinites and win, but Abhisit running (and Prayut as well) will split the anti-Thaksinite vote. The Thaksin support base is big, but it's not that big.

The Thaksin support base is shrinking and shrinking fast.

[tonbridgebrit]

rametindallas and bild766, so you both don't like Thaksin, but you both still reckon that his support base in Thailand might be greater than Abhisit's support base ?

On the issue of the removal of the 500 baht per vote bribe, yes, I also feel that this still means that the Thaksin proxy can still win without the 500 baht bribe !

On the issue of Prayut running, well, yes, I do agree Prayut's chances of beating Thaksin are greater than Abhisit's chances of beating Thaksin. Now, if Abhisit was to boycott the next election, and we see a race between Thaksin and Prayut (and also have the little parties as well), well, yes, I reckon Prayut will win it !

Yes, Prayut can unite the anti-Thaksinites and win, but Abhisit running (and Prayut as well) will split the anti-Thaksinite vote. The Thaksin support base is big, but it's not that big.

The Thaksin support base is shrinking and shrinking fast.

You might be right, the Thaksin support base might be shrinking. But to what level has it shrunk to ? People constantly go on and on about all the problems that Thaksin did to Thailand, after all this time, and Thaksin hasn't been in power for a whole year now. Has his support base shrunk to a level that is LOWER than Abhisit's support base ?

Skywalker69, do you feel it's possible that the general might take part in an election himself ? What do you reckon are the chances of the general running in an election ?

[Artisi]

rametindallas, you're not a troll, would you like to answer a direct question ?

Lets just say that it is the case that Thaksin's support base in Thailand is small, yes, lots of people on ThaiVisa are correct, Thaksin is deluded when thinking that he still has a support base in Thailand. They might be right.

Okay, lets have an election, and surely, Abhisit will get a higher percentage of the vote than Thaksin. Maybe six or seven per cent more votes. This means Abhisit will have more MPs than Thaksin, and Abhisit can be declared as the democratically elected leader of Thailand.

Yes, Thailand can then declare itself a democracy, and have full political links with the West restored.

There will be an election; there always is an election... eventually. As for as Abhist being a candidate, he is not charismatic and has blood on his hands; rightly or wrongly. When you write of Thaksin being a candidate or getting votes, thats impossible as he is a convicted felon so it will have to be a 'nominee', such as Samak, Somchai, and Yingluck were, representing Thaksin who support Thaksin's policies. He has thrown so many of his loyal, possible leaders 'under the bus' that I couldn't begin to guess who that nominee would be With his funding and organization, any party representing Thaksin has as good a chance of winning an election as any I know of. The 'monkey wrench' in all this is the crazy new methods of electing representatives as formulated in the proposed new convention and supposedly based on the German model. I have no idea how that is going to work so I really can't comment yet. Thailand is much more acceptable to world powers as a democracy and even the most benevolent, hard-working, and honest military government is still a military government and not the 'will of the people'. Therefore I patiently wait for democracy to return and hope venal politicians don't bend the rules to fit their will as Dr. Thaksin and his nominee governments have done in the past.

Thanks for that, rametindallas !

Okay, Abhisit can easily be replaced and the Democrats can have a new leader. Yes, when I say Thaksin, I mean a Thaksin proxy, but we all know that a Thaksin proxy or nominee will be taking orders from Thaksin and carrying out those orders.

You say that "With his funding and organization, any party representing Thaksin has as good a chance of winning an election as any I know of" !! Well yes, I agree with your comment. Do you feel, if the junta was able to carry out a ban on the 500 baht per vote bribe, do you reckon the Thaksin Party can still win ?

What about people on ThaiVisa who feel that any parties taking part in a general election should be banned from having populist policies ? Do you feel this is reasonable ? Or do you feel that in a democratic vote, parties should be allowed whatever populist policies they like ??

Do you feel, if the junta was able to carry out a ban on the 500 baht per vote bribe, do you reckon the Thaksin Party can still win ?

Sure, why not? He is very charismatic, has great organizational skills, tons of money, and though there is no way to stop vote buying, since the vote buying is done by all sides they cancel each other's advantage. Who's nominee party won the first election after the 2006 coup? (Thaksin's People's Power Party; Samak Sundaravej) As to who will be Thaksin's nominee; I thought he was scraping the bottom of the barrel to have his no-gravitas, no-experience, no-leadership qualities, no-appearance of independence, baby sister run to be PM. I can't imaging who's left that he can trust. It doesn't matter who the Democrats have as party head, they just don't have the popularity. Now, if Prayut were to run in the next election, he would definitely give any Thaksin nominee a 'run for his money'. Thai people are not as bothered by having the military run things as Westerners.

What about people on ThaiVisa who feel that any parties taking part in a general election should be banned from having populist policies ?

My own personal view is that statements like, "I'll make everyone rich" should be banned but any populist policy should have to be accompanied by a cost/benefit analysis; preferably by a University or other independent organization. If that had been done with the promised Rice Scheme, Thailand would have hundreds of billions of Baht still in the state coffers and not in the pockets of crooks who abused the policy.

This is a forum populated mostly by non-Thais and, therefore, they have no voting rights and their opinion affects the course of Thai politics about as much as a fart in a typhoon. It doesn't matter what posters think or write; we are just voicing our opinions or venting our spleens so it doesn't matter what we feel. Only Thais' opinions count but, like in the US, the government never listens to the opinion of the people and only listens to those who donate or share the spoils.

Time will reveal all.

Well put, especially the "fart in a typhoon", everyone posting here should pay it a bit more attention.

[Skywalker69]

rametindallas and bild766, so you both don't like Thaksin, but you both still reckon that his support base in Thailand might be greater than Abhisit's support base ?

On the issue of the removal of the 500 baht per vote bribe, yes, I also feel that this still means that the Thaksin proxy can still win without the 500 baht bribe !

On the issue of Prayut running, well, yes, I do agree Prayut's chances of beating Thaksin are greater than Abhisit's chances of beating Thaksin. Now, if Abhisit was to boycott the next election, and we see a race between Thaksin and Prayut (and also have the little parties as well), well, yes, I reckon Prayut will win it !

Yes, Prayut can unite the anti-Thaksinites and win, but Abhisit running (and Prayut as well) will split the anti-Thaksinite vote. The Thaksin support base is big, but it's not that big.

The Thaksin support base is shrinking and shrinking fast.

You might be right, the Thaksin support base might be shrinking. But to what level has it shrunk to ? People constantly go on and on about all the problems that Thaksin did to Thailand, after all this time, and Thaksin hasn't been in power for a whole year now. Has his support base shrunk to a level that is LOWER than Abhisit's support base ?

Skywalker69, do you feel it's possible that the general might take part in an election himself ? What do you reckon are the chances of the general running in an election ?

Skywalker69, do you feel it's possible that the general might take part in an election himself ? What do you reckon are the chances of the general running in an election ?

I don´t know but what I know is the killing has stopped and he has done more in a year than Yingluck would have done in a liftime. But I hope that there will be fair elections one day without wotebuying.

[Artisi]

rametindallas and bild766, so you both don't like Thaksin, but you both still reckon that his support base in Thailand might be greater than Abhisit's support base ?

On the issue of the removal of the 500 baht per vote bribe, yes, I also feel that this still means that the Thaksin proxy can still win without the 500 baht bribe !

On the issue of Prayut running, well, yes, I do agree Prayut's chances of beating Thaksin are greater than Abhisit's chances of beating Thaksin. Now, if Abhisit was to boycott the next election, and we see a race between Thaksin and Prayut (and also have the little parties as well), well, yes, I reckon Prayut will win it !

Yes, Prayut can unite the anti-Thaksinites and win, but Abhisit running (and Prayut as well) will split the anti-Thaksinite vote. The Thaksin support base is big, but it's not that big.

The Thaksin support base is shrinking and shrinking fast.

You might be right, the Thaksin support base might be shrinking. But to what level has it shrunk to ? People constantly go on and on about all the problems that Thaksin did to Thailand, after all this time, and Thaksin hasn't been in power for a whole year now. Has his support base shrunk to a level that is LOWER than Abhisit's support base ?

Skywalker69, do you feel it's possible that the general might take part in an election himself ? What do you reckon are the chances of the general running in an election ?

I would think that General would have a fair chance of pulling off a win in the election, especially if the Democrats got behind him. He is far from perfect (in my view) but far better than most we have seen over the past few years and seems to have reasonable support as most Thai's don't give a monkey's about expertise - they seem to like front and presentation and don't see too far behind the façade (if it is actually a façade in this case).

[tonbridgebrit]

Has Thaksin still got a large support base in Thailand ? Is he deluded ?

Does Thaksin's support base in Thailand outnumber the Thais who want to vote for Abhisit ??

How do we know ? How are we going to know ? Are there people on ThaiVisa who are deluded about how many people in Thailand support Thaksin ??

Are there any alternatives to the Democrats and the PTP ? Of course there are.

If it was up to me (meaning if I was in charge of the coup/government) I would ban both the PTP and the Dems and hold elections tomorrow.

They seem to be the ones who caused all the trouble to start with.

Getting the PM to shut down the Dems might be a bit of a problem but if it means bringing peace (and happiness) to the people then that's what I would do.

Okay, what IF they were to ever shut down both the Democrats and the PTP ? And hold elections then ?

See, a lot of people would feel that whatever party that represents Thailand's un-skilled and semi-skilled workers, the rural and urban poor, those on under fifteen thousand baht per month, any party whose support is based on these people will get a lot of votes.

And any party whose support is mainly from those who make more than fifteen thousand baht per month, and also represents the interests of Thailand's richest 2 or 3%, well, that party is not going to get more votes than the one that gets it votes from the 'poor'.

Do you feel that most of Thaksin's support base is made up of the rural and urban poor ? Do you feel that the yellow shirts are made up of Thais who are better off than Thaksin's suport base, and that the richest 2-3% also hate Thaksin ? After all, it is the taxes imposed on richer people that have paid for the populist policies of all the Thaksin governments.

And here's the point, even if they were to remove Thaksin, Thailand's richest 2-3% don't want a government that is going to subsidise the poor (anyone on under fifteen thousand baht per month). Yes, a lot of ThaiVisa people feel that Thaksin has no role to play in Thai politics, he is irrelevant, he is a non-issue, he is deluded. But look at Thaksin's support base. His support base is based on the largest sector of Thai society, the poor, the base of the pyramid. Are these people going to be allowed to have things their way ?

[rametindallas]

rametindallas and bild766, so you both don't like Thaksin, but you both still reckon that his support base in Thailand might be greater than Abhisit's support base ?

On the issue of the removal of the 500 baht per vote bribe, yes, I also feel that this still means that the Thaksin proxy can still win without the 500 baht bribe !

On the issue of Prayut running, well, yes, I do agree Prayut's chances of beating Thaksin are greater than Abhisit's chances of beating Thaksin. Now, if Abhisit was to boycott the next election, and we see a race between Thaksin and Prayut (and also have the little parties as well), well, yes, I reckon Prayut will win it !

Yes, Prayut can unite the anti-Thaksinites and win, but Abhisit running (and Prayut as well) will split the anti-Thaksinite vote. The Thaksin support base is big, but it's not that big.

Since the PM is elected by Parliament, even if the anti-Thaksin vote is split, there would be an anti-Thaksin coalition in Parliament to vote in a anti-Thaksin PM; and it won't be Abhisit. I like Abhisit but he is a weak leader.

[Yunla]

I'm starting to think that the recent flurry of Thaksin statements coinciding with his sister's trial is actually just him playing the "I care about my family" card. A card that carries a lot of political currency in a nation that takes family-loyalty as seriously as this one.

Obviously it would be nice if I was wrong, and he's just genuinely concerned about her. But then I would need to forget about how she got into this mess in the first place. So I'm going with the crafty "I care about families" card for now.

On-topic, I think his return will be greeted not by strong support bases, but by finger gestures which he will mistake for defiant hunger-games solidarity gestures. And it will be a brave minion that dares tell him the crowds are only using their middle fingers.

Edited May 24, 2015 by Yunla

[Siripon]

Thaksin has got to make noises now because his clone sister, as he called her, is facing the probability of jail time due to negligence, possible complicity and certainly stupidity in the massive losses of the help the rich rice farmers and millers scheme.

Poor farmers didn't benefit because if you have less than 7 rai to farm as most poor farmers do, that rice is only for consumption, not for sale. The rich landowners and millers,especially of the Central region really benefited from this scheme, not the poor.

It's not easy for Thaksin regarding the next election- which clone is next to carry the mantle?

Oak his son- too dumb

Somchai Wongsawat, his brother in law- too nerdy, weak.

Yaowapa shinawat- unattractive and shuns the limelight.

Outsiders- maybe Pongpet,the smooth lawyer or Chatupon but neither can light up the provinces and working classes like the cute smile and say nothing Yingluck.

It's an ideal time for the Thai working class, rural and urban to look within their ranks for new blood, people who really want to help and develop their country, not ego maniacs and millionaires like the Shinawats..

\

[craigt3365]

Please abide by forum rules:

11) You will not post slurs, degrading or overly negative comments directed towards Thailand, specific locations, Thai institutions such as the judicial or law enforcement system, Thai culture, Thai people or any other group on the basis of race, nationality, religion, gender or sexual orientation.

[cumgranosalum]

rametindallas and bild766, so you both don't like Thaksin, but you both still reckon that his support base in Thailand might be greater than Abhisit's support base ?

On the issue of the removal of the 500 baht per vote bribe, yes, I also feel that this still means that the Thaksin proxy can still win without the 500 baht bribe !

On the issue of Prayut running, well, yes, I do agree Prayut's chances of beating Thaksin are greater than Abhisit's chances of beating Thaksin. Now, if Abhisit was to boycott the next election, and we see a race between Thaksin and Prayut (and also have the little parties as well), well, yes, I reckon Prayut will win it !

Yes, Prayut can unite the anti-Thaksinites and win, but Abhisit running (and Prayut as well) will split the anti-Thaksinite vote. The Thaksin support base is big, but it's not that big.

The Thaksin support base is shrinking and shrinking fast.

What makes you say that? Is it just because that's what you WANT to happen? Wishful thinking is no substitute for critical thinking.

[rametindallas]

Thaksin wants strong support base before contemplating return home

Think about that headline for a moment. Just why does he want to return home and why is he talking about returning home now?

Is it to face the criminal and civil charges waiting for him or to serve his two years jail term? He certainly doesn't need a 'strong support base' to go to court unless he wants to use his 'strong support base' to intimidate the judges.

Does he want to return so he can fix all the problems of Thailand? Maybe he intends using his 'strong support base' to intimidate the government so they don't arrest and prosecute him upon arrival, I think he will need a 'strong support base' that is more powerful than Prayut's army to do that, though.

Many on this forum fervently argue that he currently has a 'strong support base', though he had his best 'strong support base' when his sister was PM but he didn't come back to Thailand then. I really don't see how his base is growing stronger while he is out of power and out of the country.

I can come to only two conclusions, either he is using the fact that he needs a stronger support base as an excuse as to why he isn't returning to save the Thai people or he is talking out of his behind.

Anyone else care to explain why Thaksin wants to return now but only if he has a 'strong support base'?

Edited May 25, 2015 by rametindallas

[billd766]

When Taksin was elected to lead the country....

I remember in those days that you had to line up in front of real estate agents their offices in order to buy a property...(so busy with buyers then )

Economics was so booming at that time...All was making money no one was complaining.

Look around you how it is nowadays?

meanwhile most Foreigners have left Thailand new winner Spain..

well, I agree with you. He was able to see the bigger picture and future of developing Thailand. If I'm right he was mainly convicted because lese majesty?

Of the forty or so foreign expats that I know personally, none have moved to Spain so from my personal experience wowfactor10 is totally incorrect. Now if he could come up with some figures and links proving that of all the foreigners of ALL nationalities more than 50% have left Thailand I might believe him. Until that happens then his post is meaningless.

[billd766]

rametindallas and bild766, so you both don't like Thaksin, but you both still reckon that his support base in Thailand might be greater than Abhisit's support base ?

On the issue of the removal of the 500 baht per vote bribe, yes, I also feel that this still means that the Thaksin proxy can still win without the 500 baht bribe !

On the issue of Prayut running, well, yes, I do agree Prayut's chances of beating Thaksin are greater than Abhisit's chances of beating Thaksin. Now, if Abhisit was to boycott the next election, and we see a race between Thaksin and Prayut (and also have the little parties as well), well, yes, I reckon Prayut will win it !

Yes, Prayut can unite the anti-Thaksinites and win, but Abhisit running (and Prayut as well) will split the anti-Thaksinite vote. The Thaksin support base is big, but it's not that big.

I have no way of knowing or proving who has the larger support base in Thailand currently. What I do feel is that the Democrats cannot win under Abhisit or (diety forbid) under Suthep, neither can any party under Thaksin.

The Democrats have a reasonable chance (but ONLY if they dump Abhisit and all the current party leaders) under somebody like Korn and IF the UDD can manage to dump all of their unelected leaders and become a political party under someone who is respected then they would stand a good chance also of winning.

In the current circumstances neither party will make a good showing plus there are still the rest of the parties out there sniffing

the waters for blood and a chance to get thier snouts into the trough when the next feeding time comes along.

Personally I wouldn't give 25 satang for most of the Thai politicians nor for that matter for the pollies in the UK either except for UKIP who I voted for.

[Artisi]

Thaksin wants strong support base before contemplating return home

Think about that headline for a moment. Just why does he want to return home and why is he talking about returning home now?

Is it to face the criminal and civil charges waiting for him or to serve his two years jail term? He certainly doesn't need a 'strong support base' to go to court unless he wants to use his 'strong support base' to intimidate the judges.

Does he want to return so he can fix all the problems of Thailand? Maybe he intends using his 'strong support base' to intimidate the government so they don't arrest and prosecute him upon arrival, I think he will need a 'strong support base' that is more powerful than Prayut's army to do that, though.

Many on this forum fervently argue that he currently has a 'strong support base', though he had his best 'strong support base' when his sister was PM but he didn't come back to Thailand then. I really don't see how his base is growing stronger while he is out of power and out of the country.

I can come to only two conclusions, either he is using the fact that he needs a stronger support base as an excuse as to why he isn't returning to save the Thai people or he is talking out of his behind.

Anyone else care to explain why Thaksin wants to return now but only if he has a 'strong support base'?

Maybe it's an athletic support (read jockstrap) he is looking for - but really doubt if he has anything in that area to support.

Edited May 25, 2015 by Artisi

[IamNoone88]

There is no hope.

[tonbridgebrit]

rametindallas and bild766, so you both don't like Thaksin, but you both still reckon that his support base in Thailand might be greater than Abhisit's support base ?

On the issue of the removal of the 500 baht per vote bribe, yes, I also feel that this still means that the Thaksin proxy can still win without the 500 baht bribe !

On the issue of Prayut running, well, yes, I do agree Prayut's chances of beating Thaksin are greater than Abhisit's chances of beating Thaksin. Now, if Abhisit was to boycott the next election, and we see a race between Thaksin and Prayut (and also have the little parties as well), well, yes, I reckon Prayut will win it !

Yes, Prayut can unite the anti-Thaksinites and win, but Abhisit running (and Prayut as well) will split the anti-Thaksinite vote. The Thaksin support base is big, but it's not that big.

I have no way of knowing or proving who has the larger support base in Thailand currently. What I do feel is that the Democrats cannot win under Abhisit or (diety forbid) under Suthep, neither can any party under Thaksin.

The Democrats have a reasonable chance (but ONLY if they dump Abhisit and all the current party leaders) under somebody like Korn and IF the UDD can manage to dump all of their unelected leaders and become a political party under someone who is respected then they would stand a good chance also of winning.

In the current circumstances neither party will make a good showing plus there are still the rest of the parties out there sniffing

the waters for blood and a chance to get thier snouts into the trough when the next feeding time comes along.

Personally I wouldn't give 25 satang for most of the Thai politicians nor for that matter for the pollies in the UK either except for UKIP who I voted for.

billd766, if there is an election, and assuming that the general is not going to run, then surely, the Democrats OR the Thaksin Party will win. You win because you got more votes than the other party, more votes usually means more MPs.

Yes, neither party will make a good showing, but still, one of them will win (on the grounds that they got more votes, MPs). The other little parties will no way get as many votes as the two big parties. But they are important, because we might not see a majority in parliament, hence coalitions need to be formed, and that's when the little parties come in.

[tonbridgebrit]

Thaksin wants strong support base before contemplating return home

Think about that headline for a moment. Just why does he want to return home and why is he talking about returning home now?

Is it to face the criminal and civil charges waiting for him or to serve his two years jail term? He certainly doesn't need a 'strong support base' to go to court unless he wants to use his 'strong support base' to intimidate the judges.

Does he want to return so he can fix all the problems of Thailand? Maybe he intends using his 'strong support base' to intimidate the government so they don't arrest and prosecute him upon arrival, I think he will need a 'strong support base' that is more powerful than Prayut's army to do that, though.

Many on this forum fervently argue that he currently has a 'strong support base', though he had his best 'strong support base' when his sister was PM but he didn't come back to Thailand then. I really don't see how his base is growing stronger while he is out of power and out of the country.

I can come to only two conclusions, either he is using the fact that he needs a stronger support base as an excuse as to why he isn't returning to save the Thai people or he is talking out of his behind.

Anyone else care to explain why Thaksin wants to return now but only if he has a 'strong support base'?

rametindallas, I'ill write stuff that you and everybody else already know !

There is no way that Thaksin is going to turn up in Thailand if he 'knows that he is going to court, and the court case is going to put him in prison'. No way is Thaksin willing to do time in jail. Even if it is a private luxury prison !

Okay, if he has a strong support base, imagine if two hundred thousand Thais in red t-shirts turn up at a public gathering to cheer him on. In that case, surely, there's a good chance that any court case against him will be removed on the grounds that the charges are politically motivated. And if they do put him on trial, will the court really give him a jail term if two hundred thousand people are cheering him on, outside the court building ?

If his support is massive, well, certain things will probably happen. Charges will be dropped (on the grounds that the charges are politically motivated) or they will (secretly ?) agree that his punishment will be a massive fine, but no jail time. Or if he is to be imprisoned for whatever reason, it will be something like 'house arrest', he has to stay in his own home in Chang Mai. And things like : he will be banned from running for office, but he will be allowed to have 'contact' with other leading politicians (guys who are running his proxy party ).

Why would he turn up in Thailand thinking that there is a jail term for him, in a real prison ? Much better for him to carry on being abroad. Why go back to Thailand ? Well, if there is going to be an election, it's better for him to in-directly control the Thaksin Party whilst on Thai soil, that's better than controlling it whilst being in Dubai or wherever ! How many people are going to vote for the Thaksin Party if he is abroad ? Surely, the Thaksin Party will get more votes if Thaksin was physically in Thailand, with all those newspapers announcing his entry and presence in Thailand ??

Why is he talking about returning home now ? He's always wanted to return home. It's the one year anniversary of the coup, we know that during this time, lots of people are thinking about what's happened during the last twelve months. The sister is on trial as well. What if they find Yingluk guilty ? What if they put Yingluk in prison ? A real prison ? No mobile phone or laptop to communicate with other people ? If this happens, it appears to be that all is lost for Thaksin.

In that case, he might risk turning up in Thailand, if he knows that a crowd of hundreds of thousands of Thais are going to turn up to cheer him on. A big roll of the dice, and it is big. And the bigger the crowd, the bigger the support base, the bigger the chance of getting a much reduced punishment.

[ikke]

Pretty much everything he said was bs. Embarrassing

I don't read really bs, specially not this :

""It is regrettable that politics is moving backwards only in Thailand when advances are being made across the world."

[billd766]

rametindallas and bild766, so you both don't like Thaksin, but you both still reckon that his support base in Thailand might be greater than Abhisit's support base ?

On the issue of the removal of the 500 baht per vote bribe, yes, I also feel that this still means that the Thaksin proxy can still win without the 500 baht bribe !

On the issue of Prayut running, well, yes, I do agree Prayut's chances of beating Thaksin are greater than Abhisit's chances of beating Thaksin. Now, if Abhisit was to boycott the next election, and we see a race between Thaksin and Prayut (and also have the little parties as well), well, yes, I reckon Prayut will win it !

Yes, Prayut can unite the anti-Thaksinites and win, but Abhisit running (and Prayut as well) will split the anti-Thaksinite vote. The Thaksin support base is big, but it's not that big.

I have no way of knowing or proving who has the larger support base in Thailand currently. What I do feel is that the Democrats cannot win under Abhisit or (diety forbid) under Suthep, neither can any party under Thaksin.

The Democrats have a reasonable chance (but ONLY if they dump Abhisit and all the current party leaders) under somebody like Korn and IF the UDD can manage to dump all of their unelected leaders and become a political party under someone who is respected then they would stand a good chance also of winning.

In the current circumstances neither party will make a good showing plus there are still the rest of the parties out there sniffing

the waters for blood and a chance to get thier snouts into the trough when the next feeding time comes along.

Personally I wouldn't give 25 satang for most of the Thai politicians nor for that matter for the pollies in the UK either except for UKIP who I voted for.

billd766, if there is an election, and assuming that the general is not going to run, then surely, the Democrats OR the Thaksin Party will win. You win because you got more votes than the other party, more votes usually means more MPs.

Yes, neither party will make a good showing, but still, one of them will win (on the grounds that they got more votes, MPs). The other little parties will no way get as many votes as the two big parties. But they are important, because we might not see a majority in parliament, hence coalitions need to be formed, and that's when the little parties come in.

That is assuming that Thaksin can create another party as I think that

1) The PTP as it was will not exist by the next election

2) Thaksin only trusts family members to be in charge so that he can manipulate the party to do his bidding.

3) The way that he has treated his brother in law, Somchai and his sister, Yingluck when they became PM of the PPP and the PTP respectively he may find it hard to get another volunteer.

The best bet for the people that the UDD supposedly represents would be to form their OWN political party free of their current elected leaders who will certainly drag them down and dump them if necessary. The problems I see with that is that they would need

1) a name change,

2) a great pile of money and

3) someone who they could trust to lead them

1) would be easy

2) hard but not impossible

3) that would be the hardest of all to find someone they can trust who would actually serve them and not dump them.

I wonder if the General would run in an election.

Just my 50 satangs worth.