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THAI TALK
Cabinet reshuffle: Rumours, trial balloons and facts
Suthichai Yoon
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Premier Prayut Chan-o-cha isn't saying whether he will reshuffle the Cabinet, despite growing indications that he is under pressure to produce a new line-up that can better enhance public confidence.

"I am not a knight on a white horse," he declared last week at a seminar on Thailand's competitiveness. "It's more like I'm [riding] a crippled horse."

If the premier has stepped up his self-deprecating humour lately, it's because the burden of intractable problems piling up on his shoulders means he would likely be the first to admit he doesn't enjoy being up there anymore.

"You have to look at what the situation was before I came in. There are many problems that can't be resolved overnight, because they are both political and legal. There are still problems with spending the budget. There are times when even if I issue an order, it doesn't necessarily mean action can be taken immediately," he admitted.

Then, as if in a sudden moment of enlightenment, he confessed: "Don't think that [absolute power] under Article 44 can address every problem."

And right in the wake of this depressing situation, the premier has been slapped with speculation that he is considering replacing the economic ministers in the Cabinet - and perhaps also the agriculture minister, allegedly because he failed to prevent the unprecedented drought that has hit the farming sector hard. Not only that, but urban residents have been showing signs of panic after problems with their tap-water culminated in a cut to supplies in the suburbs of Pathum Thani province.

The premier's response to the reshuffle rumours has been understandably obscure. One day he said they were just the fruit of over-imaginative journalists. Then he said that he had something up his sleeve but would only discuss it at the appropriate time.

There is, however, little doubt that the suggestion that a new team of economic affairs ministers is needed in order to regain public confidence must have been raised by the premier's advisers as well as outside observers. In politics, sometimes it doesn't matter what brought about an economic decline. What matters is finding someone to blame and bringing in fresh faces that can provide a new lease of life for the government.

Instead of confirming or denying the reports, the premier chose to side-step the issue by resorting to his role of "grumpy old man". He complained to reporters: "Cabinet members have been working so hard that they are all ready to quit."

Has that got anything to do with another rumour that a "national reconciliation government" is in the works - and that retiring Army chief General Udomdej Sitabutr is being tipped to take over as the "neutral prime minister" of this "grand coalition?" These separate speculations from different quarters aren't necessarily related in any way. Again, in Thai politics rumour-mongers rarely consider it necessary to justify the rationale behind their stories, however wild or even downright impossible they might be.

General Udomdej wasted no time in shooting down the "reconciliation government" rumour, calling it too far-fetched to deserve a serious response. Prayut didn't bother to respond at all. He was too busy trying to explain that rumours his brother General Preecha Chan-o-cha would succeed General Udomdej had nothing to do with him being the prime minister.

Does that mean a Cabinet reshuffle is out of the question? No. The speculation didn't surface out of nowhere. The fact that Deputy Premier Pridiyathorn Devakul has stepped up his public appearances to insist that the country's economic situation is still under control indicates his supporters are pushing him forward to pre-empt a move to replace him.

Somkid Jatusripitak, one of the premier's top advisers, has vigorously avoided the press. That's another indication pointing in the same direction. Prasarn Trairatvorakul, who is due to retire as central bank governor, has been mentioned as a possible candidate for a "prominent role" in the new set-up.

Perhaps, when people speculate about a "grand coalition" they are talking about the "economic team" - and not the entire Cabinet. Not all rumours are true, of course - though some are designed as nothing more than trial balloons. But believe me, a good percentage of them will turn out to be incredibly accurate.

Full story: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Cabinet-reshuffle-Rumours-trial-balloons-and-facts-30265006.html


-- The Nation 2015-07-23

[Ricardo]

Hope that the "trial balloon" in the head-line doesn't turn out to be another surveillance-blimp !

[mikemac]

Darn, what a waste of time.

The only reason I read the story above was because I thought it was about trial baboons. Was not until I got to the last paragraph that I realized it was balloons, not baboons.

What the heck is a trial balloon anyway ?

......................."Prayut didn't bother to respond at all. He was too busy trying to explain that rumours his brother General Preecha Chan-o-cha would succeed General Udomdej had nothing to do with him being the prime minister.".......................

Of course not. Why would anyone think that was the case "

Gee, the longer this military government is in power the more they act like a civilian government.

[Srikcir]

There has been a lot of criticism of Thai familiy dynasties controlling elected government.

But the miitary has had an uninterrupted dynasty of flag officers in control of the government for over 70 years. Each successive coup drawing from the "talent" supporting the previous coup. The only election these officers have is the vote of their comrades in arms, roommates, classmates, relatives, etc. to put them into public office.

When one looks at the Junta's current roadmap for national reconcliation, it only concerns political parties. The military seems to hold itself above any necessary reconciliation as an arbitraitor as to how the majority will be allowed to govern. So who cares what Prayut does with his cabinet? He cannot be held accountable for poor leadership.

[Ricardo]

<snip for brevity>

What the heck is a trial balloon anyway ?

My former Marketing-Manager once described it as, running an idea up the flagpole as a trial, to see if anyone saluted it, I recall. A proposal made to see whether there would be any strong response for-or-against it.

Of course in a country which is under military-rule, everybody would salute it when told to, wouldn't they ?

Which is what made the outcry against RTN's request for three Chinese submarines more notable, it was a silly idea and totally mistimed, so only a few followed orders and supported it ... common sense does still exist !

Then again, if Bangkok is going to be underwater in a few years time, as another thread today suggests, then perhaps the submarines would be required for future underwater-coups in a future-underwater capital ?

[ikke]

"I am not a knight on a white horse," he declared last week at a seminar on Thailand's competitiveness. "It's more like I'm [riding] a crippled horse."

If you break the horse leg first, than you steal it and start riding on it, I am not surprised its cripple .

[Thai at Heart]

I worry about any politicians who use metaphors...