Devaluation of Chinese Yuan: Thai exports could take a hit

[webfact]

Exports could take a hit
SUCHEERA PINIJPARAKARN,
PETCHANET PRATRUANGKRAI,
ERICH PARPART
THE NATION



2-PER-CENT DEVALUATION OF CHINESE YUAN TIPPED TO HURT THAI EXPORTERS

BANGKOK: -- THAI EXPORTERS' competitiveness will take a hit if China continues its weak currency policy, following yesterday's surprise 2 per cent devaluation of the yuan.

Kobsidthi Silpachai, head of Market and Economic Research at Kasikornbank, said China's devaluation is understood to be a policy tool to shore up its sagging economy after Beijing earlier implemented drastic measures to deal with bubbles in its stock markets.

Beijing also needs to stabilise its currency in order to make the yuan an official reserve currency - as determined by the International Monetary Fund - on par with the US dollar, euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound.

He said China had lost some competitiveness because its currency has appreciated after it kept the yuan broadly stable against the dollar since March in a move to be the additional official reserve unit.

Vichai Assarasakorn, vice chairman to Thai Chamber of Commerce, said Thai traders, especially those who do business with China, need to closely monitor the currency movement as it could affect Thai exports to China.

Poj Aramwattananont, president to the Thai Frozen Foods Association, said the yuan devaluation was mainly aimed at adjsuting the Chinese unit to balance with regional currencies which have dropped against the US dollar in recent months.

However, if the weak yuan policy is sustained, it would affect Thailand's export competitiveness as Chinese goods would be comparatively cheaper than Thai |products as the countries have similar exports.

Vichai said the Thai government should focus more on investment stimulation as exports this year will inevitably decline by about 4 per cent.

Measures to spur the domestic economy needed to drive investment, which should focus on public private partnerships as the private sector has efficiency and transparency.

Chantavarn Sucharitakul, the Bank of Thailand (BOT)'s assistant governor of its Financial Markets Operations Group, said the move by the People's Bank of China was part of the Chinese government's financial reform effort to gradually make the currency more flexible.

"The depreciation of the yuan will have a short-term impact on market sentiment but the impact in the long-term will have to be assessed," she said.

"The increased flexibility should be positive for China's economic reform efforts and the depreciation of the currency should better support China's economy and that could beneficial for trade activities in the region," she added.

China is currently Thailand's biggest trading partner accounting for 14.8 per cent of Thailand's total trading value in the first five months of 2015, while 1 per cent of the product and service transactions between the two countries are done in yuan.

Usara Wilaipich, a senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank, agreed that the yuan devaluation could have only a short-term impact on Asian currencies since the People's Bank of China (PBOC) told the market its devaluation is a one-time adjustment.

The economist noted that the baht had depreciated due to the likelihood of a US Fed rate hike and stronger US dollar.

StandChart expected the baht's value against the US dollar to be Bt34.50 by the end of this year.

Tim Leelahaphan, an economist with Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand), said the weaker yuan would affect Thai exports, as shipments to China would be hit due to higher prices, while Chinese exports would be more competitive in the global market.

Thai exports similar to China's

"China and Thailand are both emerging markets with similar products so the depreciation means that Thailand's export of products that are similar to China, especially in the export of agriculture products, will suffer," he said.

"The baht is weakening from the strengthening of the US dollar but China uses a fixed exchange-rate policy while Thailand's is a managed float exchange-rate policy," he said.

The baht was trading at Bt35.344 per US dollar yesterday afternoon while the yuan dropped from 6.1162 per US dollar on Monday to 6.3273 per US dollar yesterday.

Maybank expects the baht to trade around Bt35.5 per US dollar by the end of the third quarter.

But it sees the currency trading near Bt36 in the short term before strengthening to Bt35 per US dollar by the end of the year, as the Thai economy is expected to pick up by then.

Tourism and Sports Minister Kobkarn Wattanavrangkul said there was currently no impact on the tourism industry. But she noted that the stronger US dollar had benefitted Thailand.

"The tourism sector is not counting on the exchange rate for growth as exchange rates can always fluctuate, so we would rather concentrate on creating and finding new market channels for the industry through promotions," she said.

"We also expected more Middle Eastern visitors due to the end of the Ramadan season," she added.

Nopporn Thepsithar, chairman to the Thai National Shippers Council, said the weaker yuan should be fine in the long run if the Chinese economy is stronger and has more demand for Thai imports.

But a weaker Chinese unit would |hit Thai competitiveness, especially |shipments of similar items to Asean markets.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Exports-could-take-a-hit-30266409.html


-- The Nation 2015-08-12

[thesetat2013]

Keep it coming! The more Thai baht devalues the more us foreigners make in exchange. This is the most pension I have received here in 5 years.

[watso63]

If you can't beat 'em, join 'em???

[Prbkk]

Hardly a great surprise . The Yuan/RMB operates in a trading range peg to the USD. When the USD is soaring but the Chinese economy is in the toilet , it's pretty obvious that the range needed to be adjusted. But isn't a point looming at which the U.S. Fed might be concerned that any interest rate hike , and consequent strengthening of the USD, will hinder recovery and widen trade deficits again with cheap imports?

[rijb]

China's move will hurt or help you because it depends on whether you mostly consume commodities or produce them — and whether you mostly save money or borrow it. http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/08/11/431682525/china-cut-its-currency-and-touched-your-life-heres-how

[Naam]

Hardly a great surprise . The Yuan/RMB operates in a trading range peg to the USD. When the USD is soaring but the Chinese economy is in the toilet , it's pretty obvious that the range needed to be adjusted. But isn't a point looming at which the U.S. Fed might be concerned that any interest rate hike , and consequent strengthening of the USD, will hinder recovery and widen trade deficits again with cheap imports?

hmmm... if a projected ~7% growth in GDP equals "toilet" then what is a befitting expression for the percentages below?

US.................2.20%

UK.................0.60%

Japan............0.75%

Germany........1.10%

Canada..........1.20%

S-Korea.........2.70%

Australia........2.25%

New Zealand..2.50%

Singapore......2.25%

Switzerland...-0.50%

Norway..........0.35%

Sweden.........2.50%

France...........0.50%

Italy...............0.60%

Brazil............-0.50%

[zaphod reborn]

"China and Thailand are both emerging markets with similar products" and similar quality of manufacture.

[NongKhaiKid]

BBC is reporting a second devaluation of 1.62%.

[craigt3365]

Hardly a great surprise . The Yuan/RMB operates in a trading range peg to the USD. When the USD is soaring but the Chinese economy is in the toilet , it's pretty obvious that the range needed to be adjusted. But isn't a point looming at which the U.S. Fed might be concerned that any interest rate hike , and consequent strengthening of the USD, will hinder recovery and widen trade deficits again with cheap imports?

hmmm... if a projected ~7% growth in GDP equals "toilet" then what is a befitting expression for the percentages below?

US.................2.20%

UK.................0.60%

Japan............0.75%

Germany........1.10%

Canada..........1.20%

S-Korea.........2.70%

Australia........2.25%

New Zealand..2.50%

Singapore......2.25%

Switzerland...-0.50%

Norway..........0.35%

Sweden.........2.50%

France...........0.50%

Italy...............0.60%

Brazil............-0.50%

I think that 7% number is being questioned?

http://online.barrons.com/articles/anne-stevenson-yang-why-xi-jinpings-troubles-and-chinas-could-get-worse-1417846773?tesla=y

How bad can the situation be when the Chinese economy grew by 7.3% in the latest quarter?

People are crazy if they believe any government statistics, which, of course, are largely fabricated. In China, the Heisenberg uncertainty principle of physics holds sway, whereby the mere observation of economic numbers changes their behavior. For a time we started to look at numbers like electric-power production and freight traffic to get a line on actual economic growth because no one believed the gross- domestic-product figures. It didnt take long for Beijing to figure this out and start doctoring those numbers, too.

I put much stock in estimates by various economists, including some at the Conference Board, that actual Chinese GDP is probably a third lower than is officially reported. And as for the recent International Monetary Fund report calling China the worlds biggest economy on a purchasing-power-parity basis, how silly was that? China is a cheap place to live if one is willing to eat rice, cabbage, and pork, but its expensive as all get out once you factor in the cost of decent housing, a car, and health care.

But even at 4%, it's better than most of the world! LOL

[Prbkk]

Hardly a great surprise . The Yuan/RMB operates in a trading range peg to the USD. When the USD is soaring but the Chinese economy is in the toilet , it's pretty obvious that the range needed to be adjusted. But isn't a point looming at which the U.S. Fed might be concerned that any interest rate hike , and consequent strengthening of the USD, will hinder recovery and widen trade deficits again with cheap imports?

hmmm... if a projected ~7% growth in GDP equals "toilet" then what is a befitting expression for the percentages below?

US.................2.20%

UK.................0.60%

Japan............0.75%

Germany........1.10%

Canada..........1.20%

S-Korea.........2.70%

Australia........2.25%

New Zealand..2.50%

Singapore......2.25%

Switzerland...-0.50%

Norway..........0.35%

Sweden.........2.50%

France...........0.50%

Italy...............0.60%

Brazil............-0.50%

Yes, it sounds odd but 7%, even if it's accurate, is effectively a contraction for China. Similarly Thailand needs 'growth' of at least 4-5% just to stay level. Fully developed economies do not ( 2-3 % is sufficient, in these times pretty good).

A lower Baht is a good thing, within reason....but not at the crazy levels of 1997/98 ( it would be a very long hard climb back for the economy if it goes down that far again).

[PatOngo]

This should come as refreshing news to the RTN, the cost of Chinese submarines has just been reduced, they should now be able to purchase 4 subs as opposed to 3 while they are at bardain basement prices.

[Prbkk]

BBC is reporting a second devaluation of 1.62%.

Yes:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/currencies/australian-dollar-plummets-as-china-devalues-yuan-again-20150812-gix826.html

[Naam]

Analysis: Robert Peston, BBC economics editor

The decision of the People's Bank of China to devalue the yuan by 1.9% will have global ramifications, in the short, medium and long-ish term.

Immediately it will increase the competitiveness of China's exports at a time when the country's economy is growing at its slowest rate for six years - and when many economists fear that the slowdown will become much more painful and acute.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33858433

a mind boggling statement from the "economics editor" of a respected broadcaster

[Naam]

This should come as refreshing news to the RTN, the cost of Chinese submarines has just been reduced, they should now be able to purchase 4 subs as opposed to 3 while they are at bardain basement prices.

[SoilSpoil]

Hardly a great surprise . The Yuan/RMB operates in a trading range peg to the USD. When the USD is soaring but the Chinese economy is in the toilet , it's pretty obvious that the range needed to be adjusted. But isn't a point looming at which the U.S. Fed might be concerned that any interest rate hike , and consequent strengthening of the USD, will hinder recovery and widen trade deficits again with cheap imports?

hmmm... if a projected ~7% growth in GDP equals "toilet" then what is a befitting expression for the percentages below?

US.................2.20%

UK.................0.60%

Japan............0.75%

Germany........1.10%

Canada..........1.20%

S-Korea.........2.70%

Australia........2.25%

New Zealand..2.50%

Singapore......2.25%

Switzerland...-0.50%

Norway..........0.35%

Sweden.........2.50%

France...........0.50%

Italy...............0.60%

Brazil............-0.50%

Except for Brazil all the above economies are those of developed (first world) countries and not developing countries who have a rather extreme income distribution. Comparing, for example, the economy of China and that of Singapore in terms of GDP growth, is as incorrect as comparing the growth of a baby giraffe and that of an apple.

Of course China has higher GDP growth percentage. From 1 to 2 is a growth of 100%, while an increase from 100 to 110 only equals 10%. Relative vs absolute.

China's GDP per capita is about $7,000 and that of Singapore $55,000.

Next to that, in terms of social, economical and environmental stability you could conclude that a 1% GDP increase for Singapore is a lot healthier number than a 7% increase for China.

The grow models of developing nations are primarily based on the exploitation of an cheap labor force, with the will to poison its citizens through smog and unprecedented levels of pollution. For China, Thailand and in the future Vietnam, the Philippines, basically all former third world countries, you could use the proverb: 'its more difficult to stay on top than to get there'. The social inequalities in developing nations, fueled by greed and corruption, will without doubt lead to severe social unrest. History has shown over and over again that an economical house of cards will eventually fall over.

Edited August 12, 2015 by SoilSpoil

[Naam]

SoilSpoil,

all what you are saying is correct but besides the point of discussion and the question "is an emerging economy with a projected 7% growth in the toilet?"

p.s. the "social unrest" card has been played since 25 years (and a strongly fluctuating GDP growth) by those with an anti-China agenda. and that referring to a country who's hierarchy has the power and is willing to deal with social unrest (if any).

[Krataiboy]

It's just another preparatory move for the day, coming soon, when the dollar will lose its status as the reserve currency, to be replaced by a basket of currencies - including, of course, the yuan.

All part of the new world order which is systematically leading crony crapitalism towards its ultimate demise through concentrating wealth into fewer hands and using digital money creation to prop up the ailing financial system.

Many independent (i.e. non-government or bank) experts, including a number who predicted the 2008 crash, are forecasting 2015-16 to be a watershed year. Observing recent events, it seems they may well be right.

[Thai at Heart]

Hardly a great surprise . The Yuan/RMB operates in a trading range peg to the USD. When the USD is soaring but the Chinese economy is in the toilet , it's pretty obvious that the range needed to be adjusted. But isn't a point looming at which the U.S. Fed might be concerned that any interest rate hike , and consequent strengthening of the USD, will hinder recovery and widen trade deficits again with cheap imports?

hmmm... if a projected ~7% growth in GDP equals "toilet" then what is a befitting expression for the percentages below?

US.................2.20%

UK.................0.60%

Japan............0.75%

Germany........1.10%

Canada..........1.20%

S-Korea.........2.70%

Australia........2.25%

New Zealand..2.50%

Singapore......2.25%

Switzerland...-0.50%

Norway..........0.35%

Sweden.........2.50%

France...........0.50%

Italy...............0.60%

Brazil............-0.50%

I think that 7% number is being questioned?

http://online.barrons.com/articles/anne-stevenson-yang-why-xi-jinpings-troubles-and-chinas-could-get-worse-1417846773?tesla=y

How bad can the situation be when the Chinese economy grew by 7.3% in the latest quarter?

People are crazy if they believe any government statistics, which, of course, are largely fabricated. In China, the Heisenberg uncertainty principle of physics holds sway, whereby the mere observation of economic numbers changes their behavior. For a time we started to look at numbers like electric-power production and freight traffic to get a line on actual economic growth because no one believed the gross- domestic-product figures. It didnt take long for Beijing to figure this out and start doctoring those numbers, too.

I put much stock in estimates by various economists, including some at the Conference Board, that actual Chinese GDP is probably a third lower than is officially reported. And as for the recent International Monetary Fund report calling China the worlds biggest economy on a purchasing-power-parity basis, how silly was that? China is a cheap place to live if one is willing to eat rice, cabbage, and pork, but its expensive as all get out once you factor in the cost of decent housing, a car, and health care.

But even at 4%, it's better than most of the world! LOL

They need at least 7% to absorb graduates and prevent unemployment booming.

[chiang mai]

As I recall, Thailand and China engaged in a currency swap some time ago which will minimize the impact on exports.

[sojourner007]

Western expats should welcome any further yuan devaluation as it would hit Thai economy and makes us look comparatively wealthier. But what about the effect on Chinese tourism to Thailand? One could speculate that the Chine rulers did not particularly like their citizens spending their savings on travel to other countries. If yuan goes down further fewer Chinese will afford travel abroad, including to Thailand, if THB stays the same. We've almost got rid of the Russians here, imagine how good it will be if the Chinese tourism collapses.

[Usernames]

Western expats should welcome any further yuan devaluation as it would hit Thai economy and makes us look comparatively wealthier. But what about the effect on Chinese tourism to Thailand? One could speculate that the Chine rulers did not particularly like their citizens spending their savings on travel to other countries. If yuan goes down further fewer Chinese will afford travel abroad, including to Thailand, if THB stays the same. We've almost got rid of the Russians here, imagine how good it will be if the Chinese tourism collapses.

No effect on Thailand, because something will be worked out, because Thailand loves China. China is their friend.

[elgordo38]

It's just another preparatory move for the day, coming soon, when the dollar will lose its status as the reserve currency, to be replaced by a basket of currencies - including, of course, the yuan.

All part of the new world order which is systematically leading crony crapitalism towards its ultimate demise through concentrating wealth into fewer hands and using digital money creation to prop up the ailing financial system.

Many independent (i.e. non-government or bank) experts, including a number who predicted the 2008 crash, are forecasting 2015-16 to be a watershed year. Observing recent events, it seems they may well be right.

Watershed year does that mean we will be getting more rain than we are presently getting? Just kidding. Yes it seems to be building up to something. Currencies are crashing to the bottom, governments are bankrupt, pollution is climbing along with population numbers who must be fed and clothed. Brazil a really almost bankrupt country is putting on a 10 billion dollar extravaganza next year money which could be better spent on social programs, politicians keep telling us how wonderful they will perform once they are president in 2017. Wildfires are running rampant due to unprecedented drought conditions, Labor's rights are being uprooted in most of the "red" states in the US but voters just gave the Republicans a majority in the senate so go figure. Voters no longer want to swallow the Republican game plan though as The Donald is ruling the roost. Hillary seems to be dying the death of a thousand cuts well according to Faux news anyway. Would prefer CNN but here you takes what you gets. The stock market keeps rolling along like a train with no driver and running out of track. Greece is a basket case as is Puerto Rico and this is just the beginning. Politicians lies are becoming more blatant out in the open they longer seem to care. Immigrants in record numbers are risking life and limb to escape to a "better life." I watched on the tely where some Syrian lad stated that the processing of immigrants was so slow that he was "returning" to Syria yeah sure. Calais is overrun with immigrants as the UK is no longer an isolated island thanks to the Chunnel. Most of the bankrupt Euro countries do not want to take them in I wonder why? Ah well the sun came up today as usual so I guess that is all that matters live for the moment deal with tomorrow when it comes. Gee I am starting to think like a Thai more and more every day.

[mango66]

For the tourism industrie it would be perfect if the Chinese is going down even more,

less chinese could bring only back more quality in tourism in thailand !!

Otherwise, for the thai economy - export 4% down - very simple analysis - what is wrong ?

The Baht is nominated to high !

For the first - you can do permanenet or immediately - denominate the baht for 4%-

it will be good for exporters and for tourism,

sorry for ladies - whitening skinmilk from japan would get more expensive - :-((

On a long term - Thai products to expensive compaired on world prices -

( indirect expenses should go down - bribes - illegal workers - penalties )

Why an GVT official must get better conditions on a bank loan than any other hard working Thai ??

Why ??

( and they not courted if they not pay back !! )

[mango66]

Western expats should welcome any further yuan devaluation as it would hit Thai economy and makes us look comparatively wealthier. But what about the effect on Chinese tourism to Thailand? One could speculate that the Chine rulers did not particularly like their citizens spending their savings on travel to other countries. If yuan goes down further fewer Chinese will afford travel abroad, including to Thailand, if THB stays the same. We've almost got rid of the Russians here, imagine how good it will be if the Chinese tourism collapses.

Chinese tourism will not collapse -

but it will be a natural selection - about quality - educated tourists with money still will continou to travell !!

( same like as some European tourism Organisation says -

we keep the prices also up for Chinese agencies -

simple we get more the quality than the cheap charlies !!

[mango66]

Hardly a great surprise . The Yuan/RMB operates in a trading range peg to the USD. When the USD is soaring but the Chinese economy is in the toilet , it's pretty obvious that the range needed to be adjusted. But isn't a point looming at which the U.S. Fed might be concerned that any interest rate hike , and consequent strengthening of the USD, will hinder recovery and widen trade deficits again with cheap imports?

hmmm... if a projected ~7% growth in GDP equals "toilet" then what is a befitting expression for the percentages below?

US.................2.20%

UK.................0.60%

Japan............0.75%

Germany........1.10%

Canada..........1.20%

S-Korea.........2.70%

Australia........2.25%

New Zealand..2.50%

Singapore......2.25%

Switzerland...-0.50%

Norway..........0.35%

Sweden.........2.50%

France...........0.50%

Italy...............0.60%

Brazil............-0.50%

Except for Brazil all the above economies are those of developed (first world) countries and not developing countries who have a rather extreme income distribution. Comparing, for example, the economy of China and that of Singapore in terms of GDP growth, is as incorrect as comparing the growth of a baby giraffe and that of an apple.

Of course China has higher GDP growth percentage. From 1 to 2 is a growth of 100%, while an increase from 100 to 110 only equals 10%. Relative vs absolute.

China's GDP per capita is about $7,000 and that of Singapore $55,000.

Next to that, in terms of social, economical and environmental stability you could conclude that a 1% GDP increase for Singapore is a lot healthier number than a 7% increase for China.

The grow models of developing nations are primarily based on the exploitation of an cheap labor force, with the will to poison its citizens through smog and unprecedented levels of pollution. For China, Thailand and in the future Vietnam, the Philippines, basically all former third world countries, you could use the proverb: 'its more difficult to stay on top than to get there'. The social inequalities in developing nations, fueled by greed and corruption, will without doubt lead to severe social unrest. History has shown over and over again that an economical house of cards will eventually fall over.

good comment -

but still-

most of chinese products are really for the toilett !

Special this quality which you can buy in that spread up direct Chinese shops -

owned and imported by Chinese- mostley, and without any import control;

as our GVT still so stupid and trusts Chinas cheating declarations;

[hawker9000]

Western expats should welcome any further yuan devaluation as it would hit Thai economy and makes us look comparatively wealthier. But what about the effect on Chinese tourism to Thailand? One could speculate that the Chine rulers did not particularly like their citizens spending their savings on travel to other countries. If yuan goes down further fewer Chinese will afford travel abroad, including to Thailand, if THB stays the same. We've almost got rid of the Russians here, imagine how good it will be if the Chinese tourism collapses.

Chinese tourism will not collapse -

but it will be a natural selection - about quality - educated tourists with money still will continou to travell !!

( same like as some European tourism Organisation says -

we keep the prices also up for Chinese agencies -

simple we get more the quality than the cheap charlies !!

In general - and that needs to be stressed; there'll be exceptions - I don't think wealthy Chinese lean toward Thailand as their holiday destination of choice in the first place. Neither do I think the yuan devaluation is so great that Chinese tourism in Thailand now "collapses". But it will subside - unless Thailand "retaliates" with a devaluation of its own (more than we've seen so far). It's not just a question of the devaluation of the yuan. China is grappling with a significant domestic economic slowdown that by itself might be expected to affect their ability to travel, just as it has affected their imports from Thailand as the topic title suggests (and China is Thailand's major trading partner).

[Thai at Heart]

Hardly a great surprise . The Yuan/RMB operates in a trading range peg to the USD. When the USD is soaring but the Chinese economy is in the toilet , it's pretty obvious that the range needed to be adjusted. But isn't a point looming at which the U.S. Fed might be concerned that any interest rate hike , and consequent strengthening of the USD, will hinder recovery and widen trade deficits again with cheap imports?

hmmm... if a projected ~7% growth in GDP equals "toilet" then what is a befitting expression for the percentages below?

US.................2.20%

UK.................0.60%

Japan............0.75%

Germany........1.10%

Canada..........1.20%

S-Korea.........2.70%

Australia........2.25%

New Zealand..2.50%

Singapore......2.25%

Switzerland...-0.50%

Norway..........0.35%

Sweden.........2.50%

France...........0.50%

Italy...............0.60%

Brazil............-0.50%

Except for Brazil all the above economies are those of developed (first world) countries and not developing countries who have a rather extreme income distribution. Comparing, for example, the economy of China and that of Singapore in terms of GDP growth, is as incorrect as comparing the growth of a baby giraffe and that of an apple.

Of course China has higher GDP growth percentage. From 1 to 2 is a growth of 100%, while an increase from 100 to 110 only equals 10%. Relative vs absolute.

China's GDP per capita is about $7,000 and that of Singapore $55,000.

Next to that, in terms of social, economical and environmental stability you could conclude that a 1% GDP increase for Singapore is a lot healthier number than a 7% increase for China.

The grow models of developing nations are primarily based on the exploitation of an cheap labor force, with the will to poison its citizens through smog and unprecedented levels of pollution. For China, Thailand and in the future Vietnam, the Philippines, basically all former third world countries, you could use the proverb: 'its more difficult to stay on top than to get there'. The social inequalities in developing nations, fueled by greed and corruption, will without doubt lead to severe social unrest. History has shown over and over again that an economical house of cards will eventually fall over.

good comment -

but still-

most of chinese products are really for the toilett !

Special this quality which you can buy in that spread up direct Chinese shops -

owned and imported by Chinese- mostley, and without any import control;

as our GVT still so stupid and trusts Chinas cheating declarations;

Do you have a clue what China makes? Aside from the cheap toys that it does turn out, just about every car, plane, electronic device, heavy engineering equipment of the highest quality has stuff from China.

Yes it also makes some rubbish for a price, but saying China makes rubbish is nonsense since it makes everything

[Naam]

They need at least 7% to absorb graduates and prevent unemployment booming.

the sun will not stop shining even if China's growth is zero. "they need at least..." applies to many countries (e.g. look at youth unemployment in Europe, especially Spain, Portugal and Greece) not to mention a bunch of "emerging" countries where this problem exists not only since a few years but since decades.

[Thai at Heart]

They need at least 7% to absorb graduates and prevent unemployment booming.

the sun will not stop shining even if China's growth is zero. "they need at least..." applies to many countries (e.g. look at youth unemployment in Europe, especially Spain, Portugal and Greece) not to mention a bunch of "emerging" countries where this problem exists not only since a few years but since decades.

Well yes, but the numbers for China are gargantuan and whilst it maybe only a theory, nothing good has ever come out of having millions of graduate who can't find jobs requisite to their qualifications. Even more so, when your only option is to put up and shut up.

I all of those other countries there has been political upheaval, change and reform to match the atmosphere of the moment. The issue isn't youth unemployment in China per se, the issue is what happens in China if enough people get p******d off with the CCP?

[hawker9000]

They need at least 7% to absorb graduates and prevent unemployment booming.

the sun will not stop shining even if China's growth is zero. "they need at least..." applies to many countries (e.g. look at youth unemployment in Europe, especially Spain, Portugal and Greece) not to mention a bunch of "emerging" countries where this problem exists not only since a few years but since decades.

Well yes, but the numbers for China are gargantuan and whilst it maybe only a theory, nothing good has ever come out of having millions of graduate who can't find jobs requisite to their qualifications. Even more so, when your only option is to put up and shut up.

I all of those other countries there has been political upheaval, change and reform to match the atmosphere of the moment. The issue isn't youth unemployment in China per se, the issue is what happens in China if enough people get p******d off with the CCP?

What choice do they really have? There are other political parties in China, but all are vetted by and must accept the leadership of the CPC as a condition of their existence. I guess these graduates can "get p******d off" at being unemployed, but that won't change anything. Moreso than in most other countries experiencing slow or no or negative growth these days, dissent really isn't much of an option in the PRC, and serious unrest is unlikely. I think the music has stopped in China, and now there simply aren't enough seats for everyone. (Gee, I guess children's games really are practice for real life ...)