Fourth quarter growth to be 3.5-4% this year



BANGKOK: -- The private sector yesterday voiced confidence of 3.5-4% economic growth in the fourth quarter of this year under condition that the government accelerates budget spendings on infrastructure projects, work employments, and village funds.

The growth figure is against earlier projection of 3%.

Thanawat Polvichai, director of the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting (CEBF) of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said if the government accelerated the injection of money into infrastructure investment, workers employment and village funds, the growth in the fourth quarter of this year would be around 3.5-4% against earlier projected 3%.

Basing on the center’s observation of people’s spending behaviour prior to Loy Krathong Day this year, he projected that the amount of money spent per capita will increase to 1,700 baht.

As a result, there would be a total cash flow of about 11 billion baht, increasing 2.5% or the highest growth in three years, according to a recent opinion poll among 1,208 respondents nationwide conducted by the centre.

Of that total, some four billion baht will be circulated within Bangkok, the highest amount in three years, while the people’s spending in the provinces are forecast to total some 7.4 billion baht, accounting for an increase by 3.1% from last year.

That would apparently indicates an early stage of Thailand’s economic recovery, the director said and added Thailand’s economy was believed to have passed its worst period since the index of consumer confidence has improved.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/fourth-quarter-growth-to-be-3-5-4-this-year


-- Thai PBS 2015-11-20

The various Govt. offices just make up the numbers as they go along... there will be another article in a couple of days from another dept. which will contradict the above..T.I.T.

Guess work, or the happiness factor, or just total b/s as usual.

Conjecture. A hope.

I think I should be selling cristal balls.

Will do well.

c'mon boys, is there anybody offering more than 4% ????

Oh dear, among the same mistake China did. Government investment driving the economy.

Cant remember where i got the statistic from now but over 25% of Chinas growth over the last 10 to 15 years has been government spending on building new tows and cities, many of which stand empty. Now of course thats slowing down due to terrible saturation and eventually it will hit property prices.

If Thailand are simply borrowing money on projects then they had better be projects that deliver long term growth or it will just be more debt for the country and false economy growth overall.

Anyone can borrow, start spending and then say hoorah I have money, end of economic troubles.

Let's wait unitl Somkid makes a projection - which he won't until after the 4th quarter.