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Beijing begins military exercise in South China Sea


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Indeed this is a good self reflection for USA in a parallel comparison to a case against USA by Nicaragua where the case facts are identical up to the eventual response where the USA just waited out for a friendly government to drop the case for more $$$ and aid.

There are factors within the CCP that has ask for more restraint and similarly there are factors within CCP that are more hawkish and ask for the ignorance which some have calculated will be more damaging in the long run and no immediate impact in the short run.

USA has lost its moral ground to dictate because it went through the same course and shrug it off. The question now is whether China will distinctly be smarter than that.

The incoming nominee from Democratic party is stained with a husband with a documented past of lying to the country and senate and the law enforcement agencies of the country and was forgiven and herself whether she was plainly stupid and careless as concluded by the FBI director or scheming and believing she is above the law and policies...either doesn't augment well.

Good thing for Bill is the bedroom is still familiar and this time he is not the one under close scrutiny so maybe he can have some old fun again without getting caught this time ?

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CCP thinks the USA once did in the Caribbean Sea where Cuba is what the CCP Dictators are trying to do in the South China Sea. The US did in fact liberate Cuba from Spain in the Spanish American War of 1898 (a six month war as Spain was so remote) to then assist to establish a Republic of Cuba then go home back to the USA.

Xi Jinping's bathtub making waves

image1---copy---copy_071116082038.jpg

Next thing we're likely to hear from CCP is the US has sent little green men and women into the St. Lawrence River Seaway in Canada to seize control of it one square meter at a time over the next ten years (USA thinks in decades whereas the Chinese continue to think in centuries which explains their forever barely noticeable learning curve).

US and Canada did have some tussles 200 years ago, however, for a long time now neither US nor Canadians have needed a passport to travel across the border (modified somewhat after 9-11 due to international terrorism, not anything to do with Canadians).

Speaking of international terrorism, the region and the world continue to watch for CCP's continued and next post-PCA moves against its SCS neighbors.

The CCP neighbor from hell.

Edited by Publicus
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For those who can read Chinese / Mandarin , the great thing about reading classics it brings lessons about court politics and war issues and losses. There are aplenty for the moderates to learn from past failures along with the world stage now to create a better CCP. The Chinese have 5000 years of history and along with it success there was a lot of mistake made by Emperors and Presidents that on hindsight calls for calmer leadership instead of rhetoric warmongering.

Some other countries have a shorter history and hence rely on their short memories and events filled with wars etc and unproductive domination stances.

Frankly in my books, nothing the USA has done in recent wars / campaigns is of benefit to the human races in the regions they impacted with their foreign policies errors.

Edited by LawrenceChee
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Publicus, you're right about Chinese teaching things wrong re; Chinese originating in China. A Chinese researcher actually tested that theory scientifically (unusual in China, where many of their 'scientific beliefs' are based on common/cultural beliefs, rather than hard science). He took samples from dozens of ethnic groups throughout China, including Tibet. He found a genetic marker in every sample which proved; Chinese (like people everywhere outside of Africa) stem from African origins.

some of us are Christians and we believe we come from God and not Africa DNA gene....so that makes us all wrong ?

Scientifically, yes.

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For those who can read Chinese / Mandarin , the great thing about reading classics it brings lessons about court politics and war issues and losses. There are aplenty for the moderates to learn from past failures along with the world stage now to create a better CCP. The Chinese have 5000 years of history and along with it success there was a lot of mistake made by Emperors and Presidents that on hindsight calls for calmer leadership instead of rhetoric warmongering.

Some other countries have a shorter history and hence rely on their short memories and events filled with wars etc and unproductive domination stances.

Frankly in my books, nothing the USA has done in recent wars / campaigns is of benefit to the human races in the regions they impacted with their foreign policies errors.

CCP China itself does not rise to the level of Greek tragedy as presented in the ancient literature...too much loss of face involved for the Chinese to conceive as occurring. Besides, what we call hubris the Chinese call, well, being Chinese.

In a more intermediate reference in time, one thinks of Shakespeare who may have had China in mind when he created Falstaff.

As for American literature Hemingway was a good one but he didn't write much about China. So here's a hot one recently published about China and Russia making war together against the USA and is also a bit hit at the Pentagon....

A Novel About War With China Strikes a Chord at the Pentagon

U.S. military officers are reading "Ghost Fleet" as a cautionary tale on how to prepare for great power clashes in the digital age.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/05/15/a-novel-about-war-with-china-strikes-a-chord-at-the-pentagon/

When the CCP Dictators in Beijing think about the SCS and a Potus Hillary Clinton, whom they despise more than USA rightwhingers wretch over her, CCP might want to familarise themselves with Lysistrata. Just sayin.

All of the above assumes that one day Chinese can get over the Great Firewall of China that closes their minds and propagandises them about everything, most immediately and urgently the SCS.

(Hu Jintao started this maritime aggression in 2009 (in the East Sea against Japan) but he did it against his will or judgement -- Hu got pushed into it from the Party member rank and file on up who demanded CCP begin to assert itself after the world came to China for the Olympics. Xi Jinping is however pleased to carry it on and then some. Be advised however to remember that foreign generals have always learned more from Sun Tzu than Chinese generals ever did, a reality that continues to the present PLA Party ideologue brass hats.)

The Fight Inside China Over the South China Sea:

Even Beijing isn’t sure what it wants. Small wonder regional tensions are flaring.

Xi Jinping has rejected claims that a “House of Cards power struggle” is raging at the pinnacle of Chinese politics, but claimed “conspirators” were attempting to undermine the Communist party from within.

In a speech published in Beijing’s official newspaper this week, the Chinese president warned that the presence of “cabals and cliques” inside the party risked “compromising the political security of the party and the country”.

“There are careerists and conspirators existing in our party and undermining the party’s governance,” Xi said, according to the People’s Daily transcript of his comments.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/23/the-fight-inside-china-over-the-south-china-sea-beijing-divided-three-camps/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/04/china-xi-jinping-house-of-cards-attacks-conspirators

Edited by Publicus
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Frankly in my books, nothing the USA has done in recent wars / campaigns is of benefit to the human races in the regions they impacted with their foreign policies errors.

Uncle Sam has made mistakes in its militarized foreign policy. Yet there have been some areas of improvement;

>>> WWI

>>> WWII

>>> former Yugoslavia

>>> Kuwait

>>> East Timor

It's debatable whether places like Iraq or Afghanistan would be worse off if the US hadn't interfered. Those regions have always had mega problems. One example; Just before Iraq invaded Kuwait, it had an ugly war with Iran where children were used as cannon fodder.

Again, unlike China re; Tibet and the SCS, even when the USA goes somewhere and there's military conflict, the US comes out of it without claiming added territory to add to the USA. The last two states added to the US were Alaska and Hawaii, and residents of both were willing to join the Union.

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I read an article in one of links Publicus posted HERE (note, it's hard to get the online articles because of their sales campaigns - switching to sales pages)

It is written by <deleted> Ying, who is Chairperson of one of the NPC's propaganda offices. It's almost funny how convoluted the politburos's argument is.

On the one hand, Chinese authorities didn't/don't want to participate in legal proceedings, yet on the other hand Ying pours out long paragraphs of legalese to try and back China's stance. It's like a person articulating how she "doesn't like profanity," .....by spewing out reams of profanity.

Chinese official snake charmers are twisting themselves in knots trying to justify their blatant territory grabs. It works for the Chinese sheeple, but doesn't work for reasonable people outside of The Middle Kingdom.

Note; the reason there's a 'deleted' word in my missive above, is the Chinese person's name is spelled; 'F' followed by 'u'. The censorship bot on T.Visa thinks I'm trying to write a bad phrase, hence......

Edited by boomerangutang
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Haven't had time to contribute to this thread much as too busy exploiting the natives in Burma, but on the eve of the Hague ruling, it's hotting up. BBC journalist, Bill Hayton, who published a book on the subject was recently interviewed by the Atlantic, and has some interesting and sweeping views as he sees it from both a Chinese perspective and otherwise. He seems to think China will eventually, after a long interlude of belligerent actions, come around to the negotiating in the SCS based on the ruling in the Hague (though of course never acknowledging it for face-saving purposes).

A good read if you have time.

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/07/south-china-sea-hague/490760/

I guess we'll have lots to discuss tomorrow. smile.png

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Haven't had time to contribute to this thread much as too busy exploiting the natives in Burma, but on the eve of the Hague ruling, it's hotting up. BBC journalist, Bill Hayton, who published a book on the subject was recently interviewed by the Atlantic, and has some interesting and sweeping views as he sees it from both a Chinese perspective and otherwise. He seems to think China will eventually, after a long interlude of belligerent actions, come around to the negotiating in the SCS based on the ruling in the Hague (though of course never acknowledging it for face-saving purposes).

A good read if you have time.

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/07/south-china-sea-hague/490760/

I guess we'll have lots to discuss tomorrow. smile.png

Heya Keemapoot !

Enjoy Burma...I'm in Laos now and Hong Kong next exploiting more business deals but the natives here are tenacious :-) :-)

The moderates and trade will win out...it will cost about 50-100 billion but the Chinese will pay to Philippines and the warmongers here have to sulk in another corner and wait for another news thread to demonise china again.

Instead of all these war links, one should try to get the recent air traffic of Chinese officials heading to Manila for business talks and "secret " negotiations ....stay at the new Conrad Manila by the bay...it's lovely and the bayside Clounge there is a stunning place to talk business. That's a better indication where it is going and not the dumb rhetorics on media for the buzz feel.

History in recent years favour the Chinese ....the Chinese want no fight, just trade and the policy will prevail.

As for those who mock the classics in Chinese literature, it shows a dimwit mind that has an inability to read the languages....the Chinese classics are filled with critique of the courts cleverly written not to reference the Emperor or powerful officials to avoid execution and persecution....now if only the recent HK brethen was as intelligent as that. The smart readers could discern the meaning of the words used and the thinly veiled attacks...reading it transports one to an ancient world and anyone that appreciates languages and history should view it as such and not CCP propaganda....that's just being narrow minded and dumb in worldly appreciation of things history.

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I read an article in one of links Publicus posted HERE (note, it's hard to get the online articles because of their sales campaigns - switching to sales pages)

It is written by <deleted> Ying, who is Chairperson of one of the NPC's propaganda offices. It's almost funny how convoluted the politburos's argument is.

On the one hand, Chinese authorities didn't/don't want to participate in legal proceedings, yet on the other hand Ying pours out long paragraphs of legalese to try and back China's stance. It's like a person articulating how she "doesn't like profanity," .....by spewing out reams of profanity.

Chinese official snake charmers are twisting themselves in knots trying to justify their blatant territory grabs. It works for the Chinese sheeple, but doesn't work for reasonable people outside of The Middle Kingdom.

Note; the reason there's a 'deleted' word in my missive above, is the Chinese person's name is spelled; 'F' followed by 'u'. The censorship bot on T.Visa thinks I'm trying to write a bad phrase, hence......

&lt;deleted&gt; is a well respected family name in the south...you can google it and see who are famous in that.

No one would misunderstand...people should stop threading around issues and think too much if they will offend that one person etc .

Think like the CCP ...worry about welfare of the the bigger population 97% and not the smaller groups 1-3% that makes a lot of noise. Perhaps the USA if they start thinking like this will have the courage to remove these damn guns....children will be safe in schools and no one should be shot in a roadside stop. That is just crazy.

Edited by LawrenceChee
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Haven't had time to contribute to this thread much as too busy exploiting the natives in Burma, but on the eve of the Hague ruling, it's hotting up. BBC journalist, Bill Hayton, who published a book on the subject was recently interviewed by the Atlantic, and has some interesting and sweeping views as he sees it from both a Chinese perspective and otherwise. He seems to think China will eventually, after a long interlude of belligerent actions, come around to the negotiating in the SCS based on the ruling in the Hague (though of course never acknowledging it for face-saving purposes).

A good read if you have time.

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/07/south-china-sea-hague/490760/

I guess we'll have lots to discuss tomorrow. smile.png

Heya Keemapoot !

Enjoy Burma...I'm in Laos now and Hong Kong next exploiting more business deals but the natives here are tenacious :-) :-)

The moderates and trade will win out...it will cost about 50-100 billion but the Chinese will pay to Philippines and the warmongers here have to sulk in another corner and wait for another news thread to demonise china again.

Instead of all these war links, one should try to get the recent air traffic of Chinese officials heading to Manila for business talks and "secret " negotiations ....stay at the new Conrad Manila by the bay...it's lovely and the bayside Clounge there is a stunning place to talk business. That's a better indication where it is going and not the dumb rhetorics on media for the buzz feel.

History in recent years favour the Chinese ....the Chinese want no fight, just trade and the policy will prevail.

As for those who mock the classics in Chinese literature, it shows a dimwit mind that has an inability to read the languages....the Chinese classics are filled with critique of the courts cleverly written not to reference the Emperor or powerful officials to avoid execution and persecution....now if only the recent HK brethen was as intelligent as that. The smart readers could discern the meaning of the words used and the thinly veiled attacks...reading it transports one to an ancient world and anyone that appreciates languages and history should view it as such and not CCP propaganda....that's just being narrow minded and dumb in worldly appreciation of things history.

Hey Lawrence, missed you at the Sheraton Grande Living Room for high tea. (Yeah, I love Pu'er too, and have a lot on hand ATM brought by friends in Kunming).

Agreed that understanding language and cultures is essential to understanding the SCS dispute, and that it is not merely 'commies in business suits' territory grabbing. Students of history know it's more complex and has many colors. The article I cited above is a good example. Having said that, shows of force by the US do assist in keeping China in line until those negotiations happen, so I also agree Chinese leadership is not benign on this issue and needs to be assisted into making the right decisions in the SCS. wai2.gif

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Yeah, China should and will 'smarten up' and start these kinds of mutually beneficial negotiations that it is famous for. Duterte has already said he's willing to negotiate.

I tried loading the link but it took to long. Everything I've heard about Dutarte turns me off thus far. Maybe he's got a bit of sense somewhere in that thick skull, but I haven't seen any indication thus far. If he were to give away Fil' islands to the Chinese for a gold watch, it wouldn't surprise me.

He seems like Trump: tough-looking outside veneer, but inside he's as tough as warm custard.

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Yeah, China should and will 'smarten up' and start these kinds of mutually beneficial negotiations that it is famous for. Duterte has already said he's willing to negotiate.

I tried loading the link but it took to long. Everything I've heard about Dutarte turns me off thus far. Maybe he's got a bit of sense somewhere in that thick skull, but I haven't seen any indication thus far. If he were to give away Fil' islands to the Chinese for a gold watch, it wouldn't surprise me.

He seems like Trump: tough-looking outside veneer, but inside he's as tough as warm custard.

Yeah, he has a tough reputation of cleaning up crime, etc., kind of like Thaksin did, without resorting to due process, and seems like a tough guy, but is unknown at global strategic issues. We'll have to see.

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looking at the Facebook postings in the manila sector. seems the filipinos are in love with him for exposing first the 5 top chiefs for drugs and now the customs chief for corruption....so he is working right in the hearts of his people or would the USA now start to interfere because he is willing to talk to China...and even talk to the "terrorist" groups in the south for land deals.

At easily 50 billion dollars, its an expensive watch to trade for an island / resources without doing anything and much better than what the USA can give him in Subic etc...

Manila already locked in a new deal for the bay area that will be announced shortly invested by the Chinese and Malaysians groups. part of that is also a metro railway he wants for his people...dont think Amtrak can bid for that with their records ...

Edited by LawrenceChee
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Yeah, China should and will 'smarten up' and start these kinds of mutually beneficial negotiations that it is famous for. Duterte has already said he's willing to negotiate.

they will...the south are very persuasive to the central govt :-) we are the trade makers...the end deal will be a massive payment, infrastructure for Manila and provinces including buses for networks connection and malls....yes more malls :-) and yes the fisherman can continue to fish the oceans....but boomer may be against that.

personally I am against overfishing and believe everyone should eat aq moderate amount of seafood instead of gouging ! If I could I would stop those damn seafood buffets in bangkok ...but admittedly my family enjoys them too !

No missiles will be fired ...gasp...warmongers groaning in background....whining of a conspiracy ....

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Today's opinion article by an Aussie professor in the SPH-owned Straits Times out of Singapore strikes a balanced tone and multi-pronged approach to solve this issue after the expected slam to China today: 1. Relationship - (a complex and delicate, but critical task as Lawrence has noted above); 2. Resolve - we have to get used to higher levels of tension in the SCS and live with it long term; and 3. Restraint - codes of conduct, etc...

This professor of Strategic Policy nowhere talks a tough hawkish war-mongering tone, but rather a balance of factors, approaches, and tactics. thumbsup.gif

http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/making-political-hay-after-the-arbitration-ruling

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I read an article in one of links Publicus posted HERE (note, it's hard to get the online articles because of their sales campaigns - switching to sales pages)

It is written by <deleted> Ying, who is Chairperson of one of the NPC's propaganda offices. It's almost funny how convoluted the politburos's argument is.

On the one hand, Chinese authorities didn't/don't want to participate in legal proceedings, yet on the other hand Ying pours out long paragraphs of legalese to try and back China's stance. It's like a person articulating how she "doesn't like profanity," .....by spewing out reams of profanity.

Chinese official snake charmers are twisting themselves in knots trying to justify their blatant territory grabs. It works for the Chinese sheeple, but doesn't work for reasonable people outside of The Middle Kingdom.

Note; the reason there's a 'deleted' word in my missive above, is the Chinese person's name is spelled; 'F' followed by 'u'. The censorship bot on T.Visa thinks I'm trying to write a bad phrase, hence......

Indeed.

Anyone who might have some time and a keema interest in CCP's principal arguments -- both legal BS and lawless BS -- that the UNCLOS is bogus and CCP are 100% right 100% of the time in absolutely everything (how could the Chinese who are free of African genes be wrong?) might want to read at the link below.

It presents then refutes each of CCP's points that arbitrarily and unilaterally dismiss the UNCLOS and the PCA which is in fact the UNCLOS Tribunal. PCA will btw issue its ruling at 11 am Tuesday time in The Hague, which is about five hours from the time of this post (it's doubtful there'll be a leak but one can't ever rule it out).

As to the gmanetwork you and others cite, and which you note you (wisely) quit on because it takes "too long to come in," it is dubious the network actually exists as no one I know has ever actually be able to load it no matter what we try or how long we try, to include refreshing it, being patient with it, trying again, googling to access it etc etc. I found long ago it is futile and useless to click on gma even once.

So here's the link I recommended just now that shoots down in detail every CCP argument and BS pitch that tries to destroy the UNCLOS:

http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ani/disputing-the-south-china-sea-mythology-116071100422_1.html

For example:

"Myth No 1:

As discussed above, Beijing is well within its rights not to participate in the PCA process. This is not really a myth, because this is well recognized. However, China turned it around completely and instead accuses the Philippines of violating international law because it broke a commitment made in the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (signed between China and ASEAN) that disputes should be resolved through friendly negotiations.

The Philippines attempted for 17 years to negotiate with China without success, and it argues [at the PCA] the Declaration on Conduct is a non-binding political document without legal obligations. In handing down the extent of its legal jurisdiction last October, the PCA explicitly agreed with the Philippines by saying the declaration does not preclude parties from seeking third-party arbitration.

Considering that China has itself flaunted the Declaration on Conduct in terms of not exercising "self-restraint in the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate dispute and affect peace and stability", Beijing's argument is on thin ice. It is ironic that China denies the relevance of one law (UNCLOS) in favor of a much lesser declaration.

******

So no matter how CCP slice the salami it's still baloney. CCP are sunk in the SCS and they know it. It is a matter of time and the question of what it will take for CCP to quit their arrogant high-handed and domineering nonsense against their own neighbors.

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Asian mentality is strange in this way...just when you think you have it ...you lose the initiative and start again and what makes no sense will happen...head to Pattaya ...a lot there lost their marbles not understanding how Asians think.

One will be surprised in the next few months when you see the relations between China and Philippines and how it develops ....

Edited by LawrenceChee
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Sign the UNLCOS, ratify it and follow it like you did for the Nicaragua case....then USA has the moral critic to say what it has to say...anything else is BS.

United States hasn't ever tried to destroy the UNCLOS. CCP is doing its determined and ferocious damndest to wreck UNCLOS, permanently and forever.

USA negotiated in the UNCLOS from the beginning in the early 1970s whereas CCP were always a latecomer to it and a follower of its negotiations proceedings.

President Clinton signed the Convention in 1994, the year the Convention took effect and the signature of Potus Clinton critically facilitated the implementation of UNCLOS.

In this SCS madness of the CCP, Beijing has done everything it possibly can not only to discredit the Convention it signed, but to destroy and demolish the UNCLOS. And to demolish Asean besides due to the UNCLOS, the SCS Code of Conduct CCP signed at the initiative of Asean in 2002, and the Asean initiated 2012 Declaration on the Conduct of the Parties in the South China Sea.

CCP has destroyed both Asean documents (in 2012) and now is fiercely determined to wreck the UNCLOS completely and entirely.

CCP had suddenly moved against Asean in the SCS to construct in the past 12 months artificial islands on coral reefs and to build airfields for military use on natural and artificial islands. CCP have aggressively and belligerently inhabited the islands in a sudden rush of activity during the past 12 months. This is due to CCP anticipation of the PCA ruling in the case against it brought by the Philippines.

CCP for the past 20 years, in its long term designs over the SCS, never for a moment anticipated a judicial intervention as has occurred in the immediate instance of the Phils filing suit in an international court to pursue the international law of the sea against CCP dictator tyrants.

Klutzes in Beijing have brought all this chaos and misery down on their neighbors of the region and caused the USA to become directly involved. CCP has caused and precipitated a clear and present danger to regional order and to peace -- to prosperity.

One thing for certain is that no one should give a serious consideration to a hotelier in matters of geostrategic importance and in matters of war and peace.

The title of the thread btw is

Beijing begins military exercise in South China Sea

It is not about trade although trade matters are related. It is not about visiting Laos or Myanmar although those Asean nations are involved. It is not about sipping tea with a beautiful view as a hotelier does his business.

The thread and topic are about naval actions in the SCS by the PLAN. My focus on military and naval matters in this thread is entirely appropriate and proper.

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That is the point...the USA is claimed by some as observing the UNCLOS and not destroying it, but the case against Nicaragua has all the similarities on why it didn't sign it and didn't want to ratify it....selective memory...very selective memory the USA has.

I suggest other posters read the case and see all the similarities...following the USA is not a good example at all and the south committee is telling the central government on that.

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Sign the UNLCOS, ratify it and follow it like you did for the Nicaragua case....then USA has the moral critic to say what it has to say...anything else is BS.

It's known that negotiating from strength will get a better deal. If the Fil's spent 17 yrs talking thus far (as alleged earlier) ....and not struck a deal, that's a good thing. Good for Fils, not so good for Chinese. Chinese, like every other wheeler dealer, will try to offer low, and then increase offer amount, and so on, until one party leaves the table or accepts. Now, with the UCLOS certain to vote in favor of Fil and VN, they have a stronger case.

If the little guys want to hang tough with the US by their sides, they can - though it will likely lead to military action and suffering.

Alternatively, if a big shot like Dutarte wants to strike a deal, he may be playing his hand too soon. The UCLOS decision could be just one in a series of decisions which show that the Chinese are wrong. With each such added decision, the FIL's and VN are in a stronger bargaining positions - if they choose to bargain. Dutarte may get something like a 20% cut of oil revenues, but then Fils may find out later they could have gotten a 60% share if they'd bargained harder. That's why I mentioned the 'gold watch' in a prior post.

Asians (and Middle Easterners) are world famous for dragging their feet on negotiations. Look at the two Koreas and at Taiwan, for examples. It's ironic that both Koreas say they want to unite, yet they could continue to be antagonists for 300 years. Similar to Israelis and Palestinians, or Kurds and Turks.

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......and the south committee is telling the central government on that.

Is there more than one politburo in China?

It's not the same country much as some like to think it is the same...every committee has a different pull and different priority ...for the south...it's all about business / trade...the north is heavily industrlized and have their own priorities.

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The Philippines new President Trump Duterte is CCP's best possibility to get out of the mess they have created and CCP Dictators know this keenly. So do Asean and so do the US and its allies and partners in the region. And of course Duterte knows this so he intends to bleed the numbskull klutzes in Beijing for all he can get.

The first steps by his government have however been disastrous. His new foreign minister is a stockbroker who early on bought into Duterte's campaign, knows nothing about the region or the world, and has twice now in a week had to backtrack and try to explain his way out of stupid statements he's made about the PCA, its anticipated ruling, Duterte's interest in some measure of bilateral negotiations with Beijing.

Asean however, except for Cambodia and Laos continue to maintain that no single member government may negotiate solely on issues that affect more than one Asean member government, which is the case in respect of the Spratly islands which sprawl through the zones of the Phils, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam.

The Phils are equally interested in Scarborough Shoals which are a short distance off the coast from Manila and which since 2012 have been occupied by CCP Dictators. Taiwan have some claims there too which will complicate matters further as the new independence oriented government has endorsed the UNCLOS and the ruling of the PCA whatever it may be. (CCP have now severed formal communication with Taipei.)

Complicating this further, Duterte believes the US will not go to war over the SCS and he is of course correct. What Duterte does not recognise is that USA will pull the trigger in lesser ways if necessary as SecDef Ashton Carter believes absolutely that the only way to keep the peace is to make clear the trigger will be pulled. Durtete's ace in the hole is CCP's worst nightmare, i.e., Duterte wants Japan involved directly instead in the defense of the Phils. PM Shinzo Abe just yesterday won a big victory in upper house elections so Abe is pleased to oblige Duterte. This runs CCP up a wall and across the ceiling and Duterte knows it.

It's all a part of Duterte's bargaining position. It may be however that, because Asean is adamant that no one government should negotiate matters that affect more than one government, at least one other claimant government should join a (possible) negotiation between Beijing and Manila. It would be a bitich to CCP if that other participant government might be Vietnam.

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Asean has cleverly place that statement that not one country can negotiate for ASEAN.

This means when Thailand is having a military coup, the remaining part of ASEAN doesn't have to endorse and say whether it agrees or not...it deals with the Thai government in power

This means when there continue to be issues with human rights in Myanmar over muslim treatment, Malaysia and Indonesia cannot invoke ASEAN to take action because there will be none.

This means when the Sultan in Brunei decide to whip lash you over his muslim laws, ASEAN is silent on it because Singapore needs their oil and what happens there is their business

This means when there is a border conflict between Malaysia / Thailand / Cambodia...they should continue to talk and ASEAN wont step in and interfere with negotiations and no country will be asked to take sides

The list goes on and on....the reality is ASEAN is a nice setting for the region but every country operates separately for their own deals and benefits and no one is really keen to interfere.

Makes no sense to the west why sign an accord and not work as a group and play to the group strength but it's naive thinking and those who have more experience here working on govt projects will understand this better. Not taking down to anyone but this is the way Asia work....

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Taiwan is not a country.

The Chinese government and you believe that, but here are the 3 stated key positions that Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen will take, as soon as the ruling is announced. This doesn't work out for the CCP very well.

First, the government would maintain the R.O.C.’s claim on Taiping Island and other smaller islands.

Second, all the claimants to territory in the South China Sea, including the R.O.C., should follow the International Law of the Sea and the United Nations Conventions on the Law of the Sea when asserting their sovereignty claims over the islands and territorial water areas, Huang said.

Third, the government believes that all the claimants can solve the South China Sea disputes in a peaceful way and that Taiwan’s claims should also be incorporated into a “multilateral solution mechanism.” All the claimants should be required to respect the freedom of navigation and flight in the region, he said.

Read more: http://globalnation.inquirer.net/140934/taiwan-president-may-respond-to-tribunal-court-ruling#ixzz4EBF8FjKf

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