Beijing begins military exercise in South China Sea

[MJP]

Hague ruling is AGAINST China.

[keemapoot]

New York Times calls it a "sweeping rebuke" of China's behavior in the SCS.

Xinhua just immediately released a statement that "the law-abusing tribunal" issued an "ill-founded" award.

Edited July 12, 2016 by keemapoot

[boomerangutang]

Taiwan is not a country.

If it waddles and quacks like a duck, it must be a duck. In every sense, Taiwan is a country. The only people who thinks it's not is China and we all know why Beijing has brainwashed its sheeple into thinking it's not a country.

Chiang Kai Shek was a dumbass for declaring Taiwan China. Hopefully soon, the Taiwanese people will shuck off that albatross and get on with declaring Taiwan what it rightfully is; a country.

The Chinese politburo can assert ducks can't fly - in an official memo every day for the next fifty years. All Chinese will believe it, but everyone else will know ducks can fly.

The same politburo can pay little countries in Africa and Oceana to agree with them, but it won't change the fact that ducks fly.

[Usernames]

China, rogue nation.

[Publicus]

A great many of us are still looking for that peaceful rising power called China. Harder to find each passing year. Nearly invisible at this point it is.

CCP Klutzes in Beijing never conceived during the past 20 years of the possibility -- probability -- that there would be a judicial intervention in their grand designs and master plan for the SCS. CCP Jerks had better find out what's going on in the world in this century and find out fast.

South China Sea: Court rules in favor of Philippines over China

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/12/asia/china-philippines-south-china-sea/

Tribunal overwhelmingly rejects Beijing's South China Sea claims

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-ruling-stakes-idUSKCN0ZS02U

Hague tribunal says no legal basis for China claims in South China Sea

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-ruling-highlights-idUSKCN0ZS115

Obama forced Xi to back down over South China Sea dispute

Leaders worry about growing risk of confrontation

https://next.ft.com/content/c63264a4-47f1-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86ab

Filipinos Jump for Joy at Manila Rally

Filipinos rallying in Manila jumped in joy, wept and waved Philippine flags after news that an international tribunal had sided with the Philippines against China's sea claims.

One person held up a poster that said: "Philippine sovereignty, non-negotiable."

Aside from striking down China's sweeping territorial claims, the tribunal also "found that China had violated the Philippines' sovereign rights in its exclusive economic zone by interfering with Philippine fishing and petroleum exploration, constructing artificial islands and failing to prevent Chinese fishermen from fishing in the zone."

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/latest-vietnam-chinese-vessels-sank-fishing-boat-40509164

Taiwan is a country btw and it has been a country for several decades. CCP Klutzes need to get themselves into the 21st century right quick before something not good happens because of 'em.

[Publicus]

Vietnam made a confidential filing in support of the UNCLOS. The filing did not support the Philippines with whom VN has disputes, nor did it take a stand on anything CCP has done. The filing endorsed the Permanent Court of Arbitration and its jurisdiction over the CCP Dictators in Beijing and the validity of the Phils grievances in its disputes with CCP Dictators.

Vietnam welcomed a tribunal ruling rejecting China's vast claims in the South China Sea, saying it strongly supports the settlement of such disputes through diplomatic and legal processes.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Le Hai Binh also reiterated Vietnam's sovereignty in the disputed Paracel and Spratly island chains.

Earlier in the day, Vietnam accused Chinese vessels of sinking a Vietnamese fishing boat near the Paracels on Saturday. The five fishermen were rescued by a trawler some seven hours later.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/latest-vietnam-chinese-vessels-sank-fishing-boat-40509164

CCP is the neighbor from hell.

VN was admitted by the PCA as an observer at the proceedings and many leaders of the parties in the disputes believe VN may be the next country to file. VN is a member of the UNCLOS.

CCP may not be a member for much longer. CCP denouncing the Convention (withdrawing) would be drastic given all else CCP are involved in, but CCP Jerks would have a really difficult time having the PCA hammer 'em not once but twice...and probably a third and fourth time besides given Malaysia was an observer, as was Indonesia.

[Publicus]

Here for anyone interested are the two items released today by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.

The Press Release:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2990591-PH-CN-20160712-Press-Release-No-11-English.html

And a copy of the Tribunal’s Award:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2990593-PH-CN-20160712-Award.html

ARBITRATION BETWEEN THE REPUBLIC OF PHILIPPINES AND THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

Like It or Not, UNCLOS Arbitration Is Legally Binding for China

JULY 11, 2016⋅

Author: Jerome A. Cohen, NYU

East Asia Forum 11 July 2016

International media have come to focus on Tuesday’s anticipated decision in the Philippines’ arbitration against China. Beijing’s recent propaganda and diplomatic blitz has raised the prominence of the case to new heights. The dispute involves no fewer than 15 issues, many of them highly technical. Yet the basic issue in the case — whether the decision will be legally binding on China as well as the Philippines — is reasonably straightforward. Still there appears to be widespread misunderstanding surrounding it.

Although any outcome can be arbitrarily dismissed as ‘debatable’, if properly understood there should be no doubt that despite Beijing’s endlessly repeated denunciations of the tribunal’s legitimacy — and even the competence and fairness of the arbitrators — China will be legally bound by the tribunal’s decision.

https://seasresearch.wordpress.com/2016/07/11/like-it-or-not-unclos-arbitration-is-legally-binding-for-china/

CCP law doesn't hold up well at all in the real world of the 21st century.

[Publicus]

Asean has cleverly place that statement that not one country can negotiate for ASEAN.

This means when Thailand is having a military coup, the remaining part of ASEAN doesn't have to endorse and say whether it agrees or not...it deals with the Thai government in power

This means when there continue to be issues with human rights in Myanmar over muslim treatment, Malaysia and Indonesia cannot invoke ASEAN to take action because there will be none.

This means when the Sultan in Brunei decide to whip lash you over his muslim laws, ASEAN is silent on it because Singapore needs their oil and what happens there is their business

This means when there is a border conflict between Malaysia / Thailand / Cambodia...they should continue to talk and ASEAN wont step in and interfere with negotiations and no country will be asked to take sides

The list goes on and on....the reality is ASEAN is a nice setting for the region but every country operates separately for their own deals and benefits and no one is really keen to interfere.

Makes no sense to the west why sign an accord and not work as a group and play to the group strength but it's naive thinking and those who have more experience here working on govt projects will understand this better. Not taking down to anyone but this is the way Asia work....

It seems the Chinese Century ended before it began.

The Brics are kaput and now USA and India are strategic partners in the Indo-Pacific Strategic Region.

The Chinese 'Century' Is Already Over

"Both the world’s most populous democracy and its most powerful one are now viewing China in darker terms—and beginning to act accordingly."

Gordon G. Chang

May 19, 2015

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-chinese-century-already-over-12915

[ddavidovsky]

Who on earth thinks that China will be reined in by UNCLOS? This is a country that has already annexed swathes of Asia in Tibet and Xinjiang regardless of world opinion. Precisely nothing has been done to help those regions all these years - now this is what you get. UNCLOS? To the Chinese, that is just a few people in a room.

China already has more than a foot in the South China Sea and will not give it up any more than they will give up Tibet and Xinjiang. Well, now the cold war begins.

[MJP]

Asean has cleverly place that statement that not one country can negotiate for ASEAN.

This means when Thailand is having a military coup, the remaining part of ASEAN doesn't have to endorse and say whether it agrees or not...it deals with the Thai government in power

This means when there continue to be issues with human rights in Myanmar over muslim treatment, Malaysia and Indonesia cannot invoke ASEAN to take action because there will be none.

This means when the Sultan in Brunei decide to whip lash you over his muslim laws, ASEAN is silent on it because Singapore needs their oil and what happens there is their business

This means when there is a border conflict between Malaysia / Thailand / Cambodia...they should continue to talk and ASEAN wont step in and interfere with negotiations and no country will be asked to take sides

The list goes on and on....the reality is ASEAN is a nice setting for the region but every country operates separately for their own deals and benefits and no one is really keen to interfere.

Makes no sense to the west why sign an accord and not work as a group and play to the group strength but it's naive thinking and those who have more experience here working on govt projects will understand this better. Not taking down to anyone but this is the way Asia work....

It seems the Chinese Century ended before it began.

The Brics are kaput and now USA and India are strategic partners in the Indo-Pacific Strategic Region.

The Chinese 'Century' Is Already Over

"Both the world’s most populous democracy and its most powerful one are now viewing China in darker terms—and beginning to act accordingly."

Gordon G. Chang

May 19, 2015

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-chinese-century-already-over-12915

I read The Coming Collapse of China by G.E Chang back in 2002 I think it was.

His basic premise for the collapse was the State Owned Enterprises (SoE's) were only in existence to maintain employment and did not produce based on market demand, thus were continually bailed out by the State Owned Banks (SoB's) using money generated by constant quatitative easing, thus the closed status of their currency and a reluctance to open the books.

[Publicus]

Asean has cleverly place that statement that not one country can negotiate for ASEAN.

This means when Thailand is having a military coup, the remaining part of ASEAN doesn't have to endorse and say whether it agrees or not...it deals with the Thai government in power

This means when there continue to be issues with human rights in Myanmar over muslim treatment, Malaysia and Indonesia cannot invoke ASEAN to take action because there will be none.

This means when the Sultan in Brunei decide to whip lash you over his muslim laws, ASEAN is silent on it because Singapore needs their oil and what happens there is their business

This means when there is a border conflict between Malaysia / Thailand / Cambodia...they should continue to talk and ASEAN wont step in and interfere with negotiations and no country will be asked to take sides

The list goes on and on....the reality is ASEAN is a nice setting for the region but every country operates separately for their own deals and benefits and no one is really keen to interfere.

Makes no sense to the west why sign an accord and not work as a group and play to the group strength but it's naive thinking and those who have more experience here working on govt projects will understand this better. Not taking down to anyone but this is the way Asia work....

It seems the Chinese Century ended before it began.

The Brics are kaput and now USA and India are strategic partners in the Indo-Pacific Strategic Region.

The Chinese 'Century' Is Already Over

"Both the world’s most populous democracy and its most powerful one are now viewing China in darker terms—and beginning to act accordingly."

Gordon G. Chang

May 19, 2015

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-chinese-century-already-over-12915

I read The Coming Collapse of China by G.E Chang back in 2002 I think it was.

His basic premise for the collapse was the State Owned Enterprises (SoE's) were only in existence to maintain employment and did not produce based on market demand, thus were continually bailed out by the State Owned Banks (SoB's) using money generated by constant quatitative easing, thus the closed status of their currency and a reluctance to open the books.

When in 2013 GDP growth fell behind the growth of debt the economy began its steady spiral to the official rate of 7% 'growth'. Last year CCP finally conceded a 6.7% growth rate but only after so many global private banks, investors, central banks and other financial institutions began to mock CCP as always at 7% growth the past several years no matter the real evidence.

Gordon Chang who has sources everywhere to include in CCP says GDP last year was 2.5% at best. Lombard Research says the growth was between 2% to 4% but certainly no better than 4%. Daiwa Research said last year, after a long look at CCP capital markets, GDP would collapse to minus 20% by 2020. Others see a ten-year funk similar to the lost decade of Japan (which as a very rich society and country has stagnated at being, well, very rich).

As we've seen in the SCS and has been said, the only thing we have to fear more than a rising China is a falling China.

Be concerned.

[MJP]

Asean has cleverly place that statement that not one country can negotiate for ASEAN.

This means when Thailand is having a military coup, the remaining part of ASEAN doesn't have to endorse and say whether it agrees or not...it deals with the Thai government in power

This means when there continue to be issues with human rights in Myanmar over muslim treatment, Malaysia and Indonesia cannot invoke ASEAN to take action because there will be none.

This means when the Sultan in Brunei decide to whip lash you over his muslim laws, ASEAN is silent on it because Singapore needs their oil and what happens there is their business

This means when there is a border conflict between Malaysia / Thailand / Cambodia...they should continue to talk and ASEAN wont step in and interfere with negotiations and no country will be asked to take sides

The list goes on and on....the reality is ASEAN is a nice setting for the region but every country operates separately for their own deals and benefits and no one is really keen to interfere.

Makes no sense to the west why sign an accord and not work as a group and play to the group strength but it's naive thinking and those who have more experience here working on govt projects will understand this better. Not taking down to anyone but this is the way Asia work....

It seems the Chinese Century ended before it began.

The Brics are kaput and now USA and India are strategic partners in the Indo-Pacific Strategic Region.

The Chinese 'Century' Is Already Over

"Both the world’s most populous democracy and its most powerful one are now viewing China in darker terms—and beginning to act accordingly."

Gordon G. Chang

May 19, 2015

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-chinese-century-already-over-12915

I read The Coming Collapse of China by G.E Chang back in 2002 I think it was.

His basic premise for the collapse was the State Owned Enterprises (SoE's) were only in existence to maintain employment and did not produce based on market demand, thus were continually bailed out by the State Owned Banks (SoB's) using money generated by constant quatitative easing, thus the closed status of their currency and a reluctance to open the books.

When in 2013 GDP growth fell behind the growth of debt the economy began its steady spiral to the official rate of 7% 'growth'. Last year CCP finally conceded a 6.7% growth rate but only after so many global private banks, investors, central banks and other financial institutions began to mock CCP as always at 7% growth the past several years no matter the real evidence.

Gordon Chang who has sources everywhere to include in CCP says GDP last year was 2.5% at best. Lombard Research says the growth was between 2% to 4% but certainly no better than 4%. Daiwa Research said last year, after a long look at CCP capital markets, GDP would collapse to minus 20% by 2020. Others see a ten-year funk similar to the lost decade of Japan (which as a very rich society and country has stagnated at being, well, very rich).

As we've seen in the SCS and has been said, the only thing we have to fear more than a rising China is a falling China.

Be concerned.

This and the NATO build up in Eastern Europe against Russia borders . . . worried I am and I don't get worried easily.

[keemapoot]

^ and ^^, Gordon Chang is indeed an interesting guy. As a regular contributing writer for Forbes, he was vetted thoroughly, and his views are well researched as Pub points out. He's a bit too far out in my view with his long-held imminent collapse of China theories, but his basic premise that the CCP regime's only hold on Chinese people today is continued delivery of prosperity, and that if that disappears (as he portends it will), there could be massive revolt, is indeed frightening if true.

Regarding all the discussion of the Chinese century ending before it began, et al., I am reminded of Mark Twain's famous mis-quoted quip: "rumors of my death are greatly exaggerated."

[LawrenceChee]

In the committees in the south, the mood is calm as the decision is expected.

We now have to go about a period of calm and thinking, as nothing of the decision is binding on China and like Brexit, the governments in ASEAN now have to figure out a way for this to go on peacefully without losing their deals. Forcing China into a corner is a moral victory and on that ground I agree as a moderate but antagonising China is like antagonising any giants, trade deals promised can now be withdrawn.

Quietly if China went back into communist mode and continues digging disregarding the ruling and other countries protests, it will be a calculated move as USA cannot bind China or block their civilian craft seeing they have not ratify the UNICLOS or acted correctly in the same case brought to Hague over the Nicaragua case. Unless it want to start a direct military confrontation.

So there are chess pieces here to play out as USA after courting China for so long to counter Russia would be careful to have 2 Cold War enemies on different war arenas.

If the USA military will not block the crafts, then it's unlikely any of the ASEAN partners will do so either as China will probably now sit back and re-think if the trade deals are still there and should be reinforced.

There are many who panned out a possible fall in China, I would say the possibility is very small as China has hit the same level as USA for consideration by the financial markets and the various sectors in the industries. It has become too big to fail or acknowledge a failure.

Honestly I will wait out...I believe the Brexit and the Europe situation plus the unrest of the ME overshadows this issue....those are more pressing and present a real danger.

China has a long history in ASEAN and now it's time of them to move to other projects...this will be the one frustrating factor between USA / China & ASEAN...while the leaders can bickle etc, it will never stop the businessman from inking deals and becoming more intertwined than ever.

In the south committees , I can see us moving from the SCS focus to now focus on road / rail links to Singapore, Malaysia , Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia & Thailand and presenting the model.

Vietnam is already out of the model as it has always performed well and is more comfortable with Russia compared to China.

Indonesia and China will calm down as those islands there are not a focus yet...Brunei is frankly a bit player and not important either way.

Philippines will now after a furore of victory parades realised it still needs to engage China...so awkwardly now what's next as I believe China will not move first to the Philippines so they would have to figure out a strategy of 6 years to get aid from Japan and USA or head back to China and figure a way to make this work.

ASEAN is complex...this court order is a victory for Philippines but as China is not looking at the decision at all, we now have to figure out what to do next as the construction wont stop on these islands. Brett is more complex than this....

[keemapoot]

^ Good reasonable post Lawrence. Certainly this is a defeat for China; both moral and otherwise. China should and will reassess its strategy with respect to both regional and global actions. That is good, and all of this I think is good in that it will bring China back into the fold. I don't think China will get more belligerent in the long term, but maybe short term for regaining face. Probably one to two years of tension for face, then quiet negotiations to equilibrium I hope.

Regarding the south committees that I know you are active in, my experience was that always the Mandarins in Beijing and the north disregarded southern power brokers, but obviously that changed over the past 20 years with the economic miracle the south has become. You know better than I do, but I am always leery about giving too much credence to southerners' power base.

[boomerangutang]

Excerpt from today's article in Nation Newspaper:

"China refused to take part in the case, saying it involved a determination of ownership in the South China Sea - tantamount to a ruling on sovereignty - which falls under the purview of the International Court of Justice."

So, China itself is pointing the way toward the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Thanks China, we'll stroll over there to get another legal finding. You'll agree with it, won't you? ha ha ha, chortle, ha.

Who on earth thinks that China will be reined in by UNCLOS? This is a country that has already annexed swathes of Asia in Tibet and Xinjiang regardless of world opinion. Precisely nothing has been done to help those regions all these years - now this is what you get. UNCLOS? To the Chinese, that is just a few people in a room.

China already has more than a foot in the South China Sea and will not give it up any more than they will give up Tibet and Xinjiang. Well, now the cold war begins.

It won't have to be a 'cold war'. It can be a warm little war, with US Navy cruising up to the contested areas. China can put up resistance, but even Chinese admirals know they will lose. It will bring memories (in op-ed articles in Chinese newspapers) of the Opium Wars, and how Chinese lost every battle back then, also. One difference; this time, when western forces win, they won't go sailing up the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, shooting indiscriminately at buildings along their shores. And, we won't go and loot Beijing, while the senile politburo men change clothes and sneak out of the city on the backs of donkeys.

Edited July 13, 2016 by boomerangutang

[LawrenceChee]

^ Good reasonable post Lawrence. Certainly this is a defeat for China; both moral and otherwise. China should and will reassess its strategy with respect to both regional and global actions. That is good, and all of this I think is good in that it will bring China back into the fold. I don't think China will get more belligerent in the long term, but maybe short term for regaining face. Probably one to two years of tension for face, then quiet negotiations to equilibrium I hope.

Regarding the south committees that I know you are active in, my experience was that always the Mandarins in Beijing and the north disregarded southern power brokers, but obviously that changed over the past 20 years with the economic miracle the south has become. You know better than I do, but I am always leery about giving too much credence to southerners' power base.

hahahahah yes between the south and north committees, the disagreements is intense. The credit to the South this time is their ties to ASEAN is there and much stronger than the north. Central knows this....much cannot be done in ASEAN without the south brokering it.

The south has always been part of a more rebellious thinking group that is willing to go solo if necessary...hence the next 5 years will see the south effectively take on a bigger role which they may or may not want as business trading is their focus not politics.

[boomerangutang]

Here's how iron-fisted one-party politburos work:

You toe the line, or you're shut down.

If any voices in the politburo even think of voicing a reasonable concept like, "perhaps we should listen to the rest of the world's opinion, and retreat from the Philippine coast." .......they would be banished or shot.

That's how policy happens in N.Korea, in China, in Cambodia, Zimbabwe, Saudi Arabia, and - to some degree in Burma and Thailand.

[LawrenceChee]

Here's how iron-fisted one-party politburos work:

You toe the line, or you're shut down.

If any voices in the politburo even think of voicing a reasonable concept like, "perhaps we should listen to the rest of the world's opinion, and retreat from the Philippine coast." .......they would be banished or shot.

That's how policy happens in N.Korea, in China, in Cambodia, Zimbabwe, Saudi Arabia, and - to some degree in Burma and Thailand.

No different from the parliament whip in UK where you are told when to vote along party lines in the absence of a free whip or the Parties line in USA...eventually Sanders shut up and had to endorse Clinton or he would have ben shoved out of the Democratic party....politics is ugly ...get real to it.

[boomerangutang]

Here's how iron-fisted one-party politburos work:

You toe the line, or you're shut down.

If any voices in the politburo even think of voicing a reasonable concept like, "perhaps we should listen to the rest of the world's opinion, and retreat from the Philippine coast." .......they would be banished or shot.

That's how policy happens in N.Korea, in China, in Cambodia, Zimbabwe, Saudi Arabia, and - to some degree in Burma and Thailand.

No different from the parliament whip in UK where you are told when to vote along party lines in the absence of a free whip or the Parties line in USA...eventually Sanders shut up and had to endorse Clinton or he would have been shoved out of the Democratic party....politics is ugly ...get real to it.

A lot different. As different as a fly and a hawk. politicians in western countries are free to speak their minds. One of hundreds of examples: Republican leaders are abandoning Trump's campaign.

In the countries I mentioned above, NO DISSENSION is allowed. Zero. Members have to goose step in line or suffer dire consequences. The top of the pyramid issues edicts, and complete compliance is mandatory.

It's almost funny that when the tiny principality of The Gambia issued its statement supporting Beijing's territory grabs in the SCS, the statement was word-for-word exactly what the Chinese agent specified. Were there payments? Is the Pope a catholic?

[LawrenceChee]

Here's how iron-fisted one-party politburos work:

You toe the line, or you're shut down.

If any voices in the politburo even think of voicing a reasonable concept like, "perhaps we should listen to the rest of the world's opinion, and retreat from the Philippine coast." .......they would be banished or shot.

That's how policy happens in N.Korea, in China, in Cambodia, Zimbabwe, Saudi Arabia, and - to some degree in Burma and Thailand.

No different from the parliament whip in UK where you are told when to vote along party lines in the absence of a free whip or the Parties line in USA...eventually Sanders shut up and had to endorse Clinton or he would have been shoved out of the Democratic party....politics is ugly ...get real to it.

A lot different. As different as a fly and a hawk. politicians in western countries are free to speak their minds. One of hundreds of examples: Republican leaders are abandoning Trump's campaign.

In the countries I mentioned above, NO DISSENSION is allowed. Zero. Members have to goose step in line or suffer dire consequences. The top of the pyramid issues edicts, and complete compliance is mandatory.

It's almost funny that when the tiny principality of The Gambia issued its statement supporting Beijing's territory grabs in the SCS, the statement was word-for-word exactly what the Chinese agent specified. Were there payments? Is the Pope a catholic?

I think in power plays....it's naive to think the west is not unlike most parts of China. People toe the line everyday. You listen to your CEOs, you can have opinions but yes keep that to the pantry area...in a boardroom, one can have arguments but the chairman makes the call.

in the government systems in UK / USA, you can have dissent and set up a independent party...yes you have the right but the power players also know no or very rare few independent candidate ever be a cabinet minister or be given a portfolio that holds power like defence etc

So let's not give ourselves unicorn dreams and believe everything in the west is the best and China's policies are all useless and domineering. There is a balance in between that works best for all.

If the military govt today gave an update long term visas can be bought for money and this is communist way and no vote is needed in the parliament to enact this law...many posters / visa runners will be kissing the communist feet ....and yes that is a pun and joke !

Edited July 13, 2016 by LawrenceChee

[Pakboong]

Aren't' they like Thailand...they have a hand-me-down Russian aircraft carrier with no planes?

they also have a billion or so people who would turn kamikaze at the drop of a hat!.......adds a little something to an inferior few ships!..

keep in mind the US has not won a war since ww2..........

United States has not fought an air-sea war in an ocean or sea since, well, World War 2.

CCP are not the Taliban in Aftghanistan, nor are CCP al Queda here or there, and CCP are not ISIS in the vast and miserable desert where lunatics of all three major theistic religions slaughter one another endlessly and since the beginning of time.

This is China in the South China Sea where Asean countries have 131,000 km of shore with the Sea while CCP has 1300 km of it. It's the East China Sea opposite Japan, and it's the Indian Ocean which Xi Jinping told the India PM last year "is not Indian."

Th CCP attitude of what's China is China's and what's yours is China's isn't real if it ever was real. This is an air-sea and undersea contest soon to be a confrontation -- a confrontation due to a completely wrongheaded attitude and systems of ancient beliefs and petrified values in Beijing.

CCP, the neighbor from hell.

World War II production costs were much closer, country to country, than they are today. IMO, production costs are much more important than they are made out to be. If the Russians, for example, can produce an equally capable air craft at 20% of the US costs, they will be tough to beat in an extended conventional war.

For example, the F35 turns out to cost almost 10 times as much as the SU35 and they pay their pilots one tenth of what we pay, we are going to have a very hard time in an extended conventional war. On top of that, the SU35 will fly and the F35 won't. An extreme example to make a simple point of course.

I am still on our side of this but I wish we would learn to keep up on the things that really matter.

[ddavidovsky]

Who on earth thinks that China will be reined in by UNCLOS? This is a country that has already annexed swathes of Asia in Tibet and Xinjiang regardless of world opinion. Precisely nothing has been done to help those regions all these years - now this is what you get. UNCLOS? To the Chinese, that is just a few people in a room.

China already has more than a foot in the South China Sea and will not give it up any more than they will give up Tibet and Xinjiang. Well, now the cold war begins.

It won't have to be a 'cold war'. It can be a warm little war, with US Navy cruising up to the contested areas. China can put up resistance, but even Chinese admirals know they will lose. It will bring memories (in op-ed articles in Chinese newspapers) of the Opium Wars, and how Chinese lost every battle back then, also. One difference; this time, when western forces win, they won't go sailing up the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, shooting indiscriminately at buildings along their shores. And, we won't go and loot Beijing, while the senile politburo men change clothes and sneak out of the city on the backs of donkeys.

Sorry to disturb your wet dream but there won't be a conflict over this. There may be a few hulls scraped, but these atolls are not worth missiles. China knows the US is still hauted by the failure of its last exploit in Asia. Like Tibet, it will drag on long enough for everyone to get used to the realpolitik.

[boomerangutang]

Who on earth thinks that China will be reined in by UNCLOS? This is a country that has already annexed swathes of Asia in Tibet and Xinjiang regardless of world opinion. Precisely nothing has been done to help those regions all these years - now this is what you get. UNCLOS? To the Chinese, that is just a few people in a room.

China already has more than a foot in the South China Sea and will not give it up any more than they will give up Tibet and Xinjiang. Well, now the cold war begins.

It won't have to be a 'cold war'. It can be a warm little war, with US Navy cruising up to the contested areas. China can put up resistance, but even Chinese admirals know they will lose. It will bring memories (in op-ed articles in Chinese newspapers) of the Opium Wars, and how Chinese lost every battle back then, also. One difference; this time, when western forces win, they won't go sailing up the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, shooting indiscriminately at buildings along their shores. And, we won't go and loot Beijing, while the senile politburo men change clothes and sneak out of the city on the backs of donkeys.

Sorry to disturb your wet dream but there won't be a conflict over this. There may be a few hulls scraped, but these atolls are not worth missiles. China knows the US is still hauted by the failure of its last exploit in Asia. Like Tibet, it will drag on long enough for everyone to get used to the realpolitik.

We don't agree. There will be military conflict but it will be brief. It's only partly about the perceived value of the territories China is grabbing. It's also about precedent. If China is allowed to take others' territory in the SCS, it will be emboldened to take territory elsewhere. Other countries may follow suit. N.Korea may like a few islands in the Pacific. Iran may want one or two islands in the Indian Ocean, and so on. If Challenged, they can simply say, "China did it. What's the problem?"

[Publicus]

In the committees in the south, the mood is calm as the decision is expected.

We now have to go about a period of calm and thinking, as nothing of the decision is binding on China and like Brexit, the governments in ASEAN now have to figure out a way for this to go on peacefully without losing their deals. Forcing China into a corner is a moral victory and on that ground I agree as a moderate but antagonising China is like antagonising any giants, trade deals promised can now be withdrawn.

Quietly if China went back into communist mode and continues digging disregarding the ruling and other countries protests, it will be a calculated move as USA cannot bind China or block their civilian craft seeing they have not ratify the UNICLOS or acted correctly in the same case brought to Hague over the Nicaragua case. Unless it want to start a direct military confrontation.

So there are chess pieces here to play out as USA after courting China for so long to counter Russia would be careful to have 2 Cold War enemies on different war arenas.

If the USA military will not block the crafts, then it's unlikely any of the ASEAN partners will do so either as China will probably now sit back and re-think if the trade deals are still there and should be reinforced.

There are many who panned out a possible fall in China, I would say the possibility is very small as China has hit the same level as USA for consideration by the financial markets and the various sectors in the industries. It has become too big to fail or acknowledge a failure.

Honestly I will wait out...I believe the Brexit and the Europe situation plus the unrest of the ME overshadows this issue....those are more pressing and present a real danger.

China has a long history in ASEAN and now it's time of them to move to other projects...this will be the one frustrating factor between USA / China & ASEAN...while the leaders can bickle etc, it will never stop the businessman from inking deals and becoming more intertwined than ever.

In the south committees , I can see us moving from the SCS focus to now focus on road / rail links to Singapore, Malaysia , Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia & Thailand and presenting the model.

Vietnam is already out of the model as it has always performed well and is more comfortable with Russia compared to China.

Indonesia and China will calm down as those islands there are not a focus yet...Brunei is frankly a bit player and not important either way.

Philippines will now after a furore of victory parades realised it still needs to engage China...so awkwardly now what's next as I believe China will not move first to the Philippines so they would have to figure out a strategy of 6 years to get aid from Japan and USA or head back to China and figure a way to make this work.

ASEAN is complex...this court order is a victory for Philippines but as China is not looking at the decision at all, we now have to figure out what to do next as the construction wont stop on these islands. Brett is more complex than this....

The annual $5 Trillion value of shipping that traverses the SCS lanes of trade and resource movement have not been disturbed by anything that has occurred in the Sea during all of the past few years of commotion. Goods (and services) continue to flow between Europe and East Asia and critical oil supplies continue to flow from the ME to all the states of the region, from Japan and S Korea, Taiwan, Asean, Australia/NZ etc.

This does not mean however that all is well or that there won't be any armed conflict, so the peddling of normalcy in trade, commerce, business, finance and the like has no bearing whatsoever on the events or developments in the SCS. While everyone is continuing with commercial exchanges of every ongoing sort, this has been occurring throughout all of the CCP aggressions and the responses to the CCP belligerence.

Everyone involved in the PCA ruling issued yesterday has made low-key and calm statements, from Beijing to Hanoi to Manila to Washington. CCP for instance yesterday reaffirmed that, while it reserves its option to unilaterally declare a SCS Air and/or Sea Defense Identification Zone, which US has made clear would be militarily provocative, CCP just reiterated that nothing has changed to cause 'em to do it. This had been a concern of everyone involved in the SCS disputes, so the status quo remains in place as of the day after while no one is hopping up and down in any state of a distemper.

Beijing has taken a huge hit in the Tribunal's ruling. The biggest hit of 'em all is domestically with the CCP Chinese population. Given CCP spends more on internal security than it does on the military, CCP has its hands full with its own population and the people's feelings of nationalism and ethnic supremacy.

CCP in its long term and programmatic nursing of Chinese nationalism and revanchism has created its own monster right at home. Since 5 pm yesterday when the ruling became known in CCP, the CCP censors have been in overdrive at the social websites. Censors are striking and deleting hotheaded remarks that call for war and for military action to assert China's claims in the SCS.

Too many Chinese are too hot under the collar for CCP Boyz to dismiss them or it or to try to downplay the impact of it on the CCP leadership itself. CCP are presently, if only momentarily, trying to get their own house in order so that no one on the inside sets it alight.

The CCP website Weibo is their twitter equivalent run by the CCP and censored by it as it suits the CCP. Here's a report citing the anti-censorship website Freeweibo on the war rhetoric of the past 24 hours being stricken from CCP websites by censors....

But, according to information collected by anti-censorship website Freeweibo, most deleted posts were not anti-nationalist but ultra-nationalist, calling for military action against the United States or the Philippines to defend China’s territorial claims. “War is finally going to break out in the South China Sea,” wrote one user, whose post was later removed. “I was so damn excited last night that I couldn’t sleep!”

Another wrote, “The South China Sea arbitration itself is an insult to China. Why would we wait for the result for this kind of crap? With such a large military, why don’t we just go fight to get back [what is ours]?” The post was later removed. “We’re definitely going to fight,” wrote another user in a deleted post. “’We can’t lose even one dot’ means that we must take back the reefs and islands that Vietnam and other countries have occupied. How can we take them back? We can only rely on fighting.”

“Grassroots reactions represent an opportunity and a challenge for the Chinese government, which wants to harness public opinion but fears its power to destabilize the regime,” said Jessica Chen Weiss, a professor of government at Cornell University who studies Chinese nationalism. [Source]

[LawrenceChee]

there is 1.3 billion people and of course there are hotheads and morons....look around you and travel more widely...idiots are every where and of every nationality.

I just came off a flight with severe turbulence and there was an western idiot making jokes about crashing and windspeed...I told him to shut up and stop scaring the woman around him who are screaming. Stupidity at its best display.

china wont go to war but it will disappoint the crazy warmongers who is salivating for WWIII and all sorts of starwars missiles fireworks....China is not stupid.

Won't stop us digging in the meanwhile though....

Edited July 13, 2016 by LawrenceChee

[keemapoot]

Given that Weibo is the 2nd smallest social networking site in China with 260 million active users, and for comparison, the largest 3, QQ, Qzone, and Wechat with an average of about 800 million active users each, I'm not sure how much weight we can put into the ultra-nationalistic chatter (or its volume) being generated by the 'programmatic nationalistic propaganda machine' promoted by the CCP government.

Suffice to say there are ultra-nationalists in China as elsewhere, and that there are likely many of them. At times like this, and if China had created a monster in terms of such nationalistic brain-washing of its populace, we should be thankful that they can easily reign this in with as much authority as they created it to maintain order. One can only imagine what 1.3 billion people who suddenly were given democracy might do.

In any event, China will likely dial down the rhetoric internally now, and this expected Hague ruling has probably been a wake-up call for hard-liners, who see it has opened a can of worms for other SCS countries. I continue to see this as a positive force for gradual Chinese loosening of grip in SCS. Maybe I am fooling myself and I need to think more like a war-monger?

[Publicus]

there is 1.3 billion people and of course there are hotheads and morons....look around you and travel more widely...idiots are every where and of every nationality.

I just came off a flight with severe turbulence and there was an western idiot making jokes about crashing and windspeed...I told him to shut up and stop scaring the woman around him who are screaming. Stupidity at its best display.

china wont go to war but it will disappoint the crazy warmongers who is salivating for WWIII and all sorts of starwars missiles fireworks....China is not stupid.

Won't stop us digging in the meanwhile though....

china wont go to war but it will disappoint the crazy warmongers who is salivating for WWIII and all sorts of starwars missiles fireworks

And who might they be? The Chinese certainly have zero high ground on the SCS. So it is anyone's guess whether the statement is hyperbole or hysteria.

CCP are the aggressors, the belligerent party, the bellicose bully that has shredded the Asean-initiated 2002 SCS Code of Conduct and the Asean initiated 2012 Declaration on the Conduct of the Parties on the South China Sea and which now trashes the UNCLOS.

CCP's little blue men of the PLA Navy are still there, on the artificial islands and other islands to include air warfare missiles in the Spratly islands off Vietnam. All that would occur is that the CCP big fish gulping down the Asean little fish will be stopped at a certain point, before an ADIZ for instance.

China has zero high ground because it is not a partner. CCP have gone to every corner of the Third World to buy endorsements of other dictators and tyrants in CCP's fierce campaign against their neighbors throughout the region, from Japan and South Korea to Taiwan, Asean, Australia/NZ, out to India. CCP have set out to destroy and sweep away the UNCLOS.

CCP shows no sign of relenting, reforming, readjusting -- in a word, cooperating..

Obama's Red Line in the South China Sea: Scarborough Shoal

JULY. 13, 2016

US President Barack Obama in March delivered a stark admonition to Xi Jinping over the South China Sea, warning the Chinese leader of serious consequences if China reclaimed land at Scarborough Shoal, one of the most dangerous flashpoints in Asia.

....Following the meeting in Washington, China withdrew its ships from the area....“The signalling from the US side was that this was serious,” said a former official. “There was an accumulation of pieces ... the conclusion was that the People’s Liberation Army was advocating [action]. It wasn’t necessarily indicators that Xi himself had made any decisions, but there was the feeling that it was on his desk and coming to him for a decision.”

....China has come under criticism for building man-made islands in recent years, but the US saw Scarborough as more strategically significant given its proximity to the coast of the Philippines, which has a mutual defence treaty with the US. Some officials worried that China could install radar and missiles on Scarborough. Along with facilities in the Paracel and Spratly Islands, that would help China create a strategic triangle, which would enable the policing of any air defence identification zone in the South China Sea. (emphasis included in text)

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/07/obamas-red-line-south-china-sea-scarborough-shoal

Scarborough btw is named after a shipwreck.

Edited July 13, 2016 by Publicus

[Publicus]

Given that Weibo is the 2nd smallest social networking site in China with 260 million active users, and for comparison, the largest 3, QQ, Qzone, and Wechat with an average of about 800 million active users each, I'm not sure how much weight we can put into the ultra-nationalistic chatter (or its volume) being generated by the 'programmatic nationalistic propaganda machine' promoted by the CCP government.

Suffice to say there are ultra-nationalists in China as elsewhere, and that there are likely many of them. At times like this, and if China had created a monster in terms of such nationalistic brain-washing of its populace, we should be thankful that they can easily reign this in with as much authority as they created it to maintain order. One can only imagine what 1.3 billion people who suddenly were given democracy might do.

In any event, China will likely dial down the rhetoric internally now, and this expected Hague ruling has probably been a wake-up call for hard-liners, who see it has opened a can of worms for other SCS countries. I continue to see this as a positive force for gradual Chinese loosening of grip in SCS. Maybe I am fooling myself and I need to think more like a war-monger?

Maybe I am fooling myself and I need to think more like a war-monger?

On cue, enter the dragon.....

Lintao Zhang | Getty Images

Headlines of the Beijing Evening newspaper of the Chinese naval fleet exercises

in the South China Sea displayed in a shop on July 12, 2016.

Flying eagle, lumbering dragon.

The Green Team can in the meantime keep us posted on the bucks front.

[ddavidovsky]

now the cold war begins.

It won't have to be a 'cold war'. It can be a warm little war, with US Navy cruising up to the contested areas. China can put up resistance, but even Chinese admirals know they will lose. It will bring memories (in op-ed articles in Chinese newspapers) of the Opium Wars, and how Chinese lost every battle back then, also. One difference; this time, when western forces win, they won't go sailing up the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, shooting indiscriminately at buildings along their shores. And, we won't go and loot Beijing, while the senile politburo men change clothes and sneak out of the city on the backs of donkeys.

Sorry to disturb your wet dream but there won't be a conflict over this. There may be a few hulls scraped, but these atolls are not worth missiles. China knows the US is still hauted by the failure of its last exploit in Asia. Like Tibet, it will drag on long enough for everyone to get used to the realpolitik.

We don't agree. There will be military conflict but it will be brief. It's only partly about the perceived value of the territories China is grabbing. It's also about precedent. If China is allowed to take others' territory in the SCS, it will be emboldened to take territory elsewhere. Other countries may follow suit. N.Korea may like a few islands in the Pacific. Iran may want one or two islands in the Indian Ocean, and so on. If Challenged, they can simply say, "China did it. What's the problem?"

I think all those disputed islands have already been grabbed by one side or another. And anyway, they've always been able to say "China got away with it in Tibet".

The US won't do anything on its own, and Britain can't do anything because they have grabbed islands all over the world in comparable circumstances (I still cite the Falklands) and any conflict over this case would be impossible hypocritical for them.