Pound drops to lowest level since 1985

[Khun Han]

54 minutes ago, Xircal said:

 

GSK is a pharmaceutical business and in that respect it retains a 20 year monopoly on any new medication it creates. Therefore it's not really going to suffer much even if its products are subjected to a 10% import levy.

 

However, one of Britain's biggest exports to the EU is wheat and barley. In 2015 it supplied 80% of the wheat and 63% of barley consumed in the EU. That may change come Brexit since the EU may choose to import tariff free wheat from countries like the Ukraine instead: http://www.agrimoney.com/news/hard-brexit-could-turn-eu-to-ukraine-for-wheat-rather-than-uk--10025.html

 

Also, Britain imports much more than it exports and the latter only accounts for a third of the gross domestic product. I don't like to plagiarize so I'll refer you to this article which explains why this isn't a good thing: http://www.cafebabel.co.uk/politics/article/a-hard-brexit-may-be-harder-on-the-uk-than-may-realises.html

 

 

Xircal, you're missing the point: it's not just Siemens, GSK and AstraZeneca. I could keep on providing examples of businesses right across the spectrum who have re-committed to the UK. And you could no doubt keep on coming up with reasons why each individual business is a special case for not being too hampered by brexit. But the point is, all these businesses have rejected the brexit doomsday scenario, and have committed (often with big further investment) to the UK. And this can only be a vote of confidence and big boost for the UK.

 

The trade deficit is cited as the main reason for Sterling's overvaluation by the way, for which it's current fall in value seems to be the only thing remainers have as an argument for some sort of economic crash. Apart from endless speculation, of course.

[ilostmypassword]

21 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Xircal, you're missing the point: it's not just Siemens, GSK and AstraZeneca. I could keep on providing examples of businesses right across the spectrum who have re-committed to the UK. And you could no doubt keep on coming up with reasons why each individual business is a special case for not being too hampered by brexit. But the point is, all these businesses have rejected the brexit doomsday scenario, and have committed (often with big further investment) to the UK. And this can only be a vote of confidence and big boost for the UK.

 

The trade deficit is cited as the main reason for Sterling's overvaluation by the way, for which it's current fall in value seems to be the only thing remainers have as an argument for some sort of economic crash. Apart from endless speculation, of course.

This is what's known as confirmation bias. Compounded by the fact that it's really unlikely that companies that are cutting back on investment in the UK are going to be publicizing the fact.  Unless you can produce solid statistics across the broad range of UK industry that back up what you're saying, these citations are close to valueless. And that goes for people who are saying the opposite as well. Stop cherry picking.

[elliss]

14 hours ago, MJP said:

Spoke with a forex broker mate yesterday and he reckons the Pound could reach 34 to the Baht, perhaps lower. It's only just begun.

 

  Forever the optimist . Live  in Hope .

[cumgranosalum]

2 hours ago, Xircal said:

In 2015 it supplied 80% of the wheat and 63% of barley consumed in the EU.

Sorry but that is complete rubbish.

 

read your source!

"For both wheat, of which the EU buyers accounted for 80% of UK exports last season, and barley, for which the bloc took 63% of UK sales, the tariff would represent more than half the value of supplies, at 2015 prices, and would probably render such shipments "uneconomic"."

 

 

Edited October 16, 2016 by cumgranosalum

[cumgranosalum]

45 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Xircal, you're missing the point: it's not just Siemens, GSK and AstraZeneca. I could keep on providing examples of businesses right across the spectrum who have re-committed to the UK. And you could no doubt keep on coming up with reasons why each individual business is a special case for not being too hampered by brexit. But the point is, all these businesses have rejected the brexit doomsday scenario, and have committed (often with big further investment) to the UK. And this can only be a vote of confidence and big boost for the UK.

 

The trade deficit is cited as the main reason for Sterling's overvaluation by the way, for which it's current fall in value seems to be the only thing remainers have as an argument for some sort of economic crash. Apart from endless speculation, of course.

Of these businesses NONE have rejected Brexit scenarios - iin fact if you actually read what they say, to a man it is basically if they are able to trade as BEFORE they see no problems - but in reality that is very unlikely.

most of the examples you point out are just CEOs trying to maintain a brave face (and of course share price) until they know what the EU negotiations come up with.....and if you look at the mess that is being made their.....be afraid, be very afraid.

[Khun Han]

46 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

This is what's known as confirmation bias. Compounded by the fact that it's really unlikely that companies that are cutting back on investment in the UK are going to be publicizing the fact.  Unless you can produce solid statistics across the broad range of UK industry that back up what you're saying, these citations are close to valueless. And that goes for people who are saying the opposite as well. Stop cherry picking.

 

What a neat little cop-out. Can't name any corps that are cutting back because they're keeping quiet, and corps that are shouting from the rooftops about investing have to be ignored .

 

No sale. I'll continue to flag up the good news on investment in UK Inc.

[Khun Han]

31 minutes ago, cumgranosalum said:

Of these businesses NONE have rejected Brexit scenarios - iin fact if you actually read what they say, to a man it is basically if they are able to trade as BEFORE they see no problems - but in reality that is very unlikely.

most of the examples you point out are just CEOs trying to maintain a brave face (and of course share price) until they know what the EU negotiations come up with.....and if you look at the mess that is being made their.....be afraid, be very afraid.

 

Do you actually believe you are fooling anybody except yourself with this stuff? Even your fellow remainers must be embarrassed by it, though I doubt they'd own up to being so.

[cumgranosalum]

9 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Do you actually believe you are fooling anybody except yourself with this stuff? Even your fellow remainers must be embarrassed by it, though I doubt they'd own up to being so.

Han - you never had any real arguments and now you have just run out of even them, so seem to be resorting to ad hominems - to just about anyone who points out how flimsy your point of view is. Can't even give you points for tenacity as it just appears to be dogged obtusity.

Edited October 16, 2016 by cumgranosalum

[cumgranosalum]

13 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

What a neat little cop-out. Can't name any corps that are cutting back because they're keeping quiet, and corps that are shouting from the rooftops about investing have to be ignored .

 

No sale. I'll continue to flag up the good news on investment in UK Inc.

Brostrichism at its best!

[ilostmypassword]

13 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

What a neat little cop-out. Can't name any corps that are cutting back because they're keeping quiet, and corps that are shouting from the rooftops about investing have to be ignored .

 

No sale. I'll continue to flag up the good news on investment in UK Inc.

There's a pro-trump thaivisa member who insists trump is winning because very occasionally a poll shows it to be so.  At least he's citing something with some statistical basis. You're just cherry picking.

[AlexRich]

5 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Do you actually believe you are fooling anybody except yourself with this stuff? Even your fellow remainers must be embarrassed by it, though I doubt they'd own up to being so.

 

It was a valid point, nothing to be embarrassed about. Take WPP, the biggest advertising company in the world. They are not pulling out of the UK, but their CEO did say that they will invest more in Europe and less in the UK than they would have done before the vote. J P Morgan will not quit the UK, but there will be less UK jobs than before as jobs will transfer to Europe. Roll that scenario out amongst major corporations and the UK will lose out.

 

No one on any TV thread on this subject who supports remaining in the UK predicted the wide scale collapse of the UK, the point is simply that the UK will be a less attractive place for investment for companies targeting the 500m plus European market ... the UK will not flourish on the outside the way that it has done in the past within the EU ... but let's see what the three fools (Boris, Davis and Fox) can come up with - and that's if they last in their positions.

[Khun Han]

5 hours ago, Grouse said:

 

Buttonwood's Notebook is a COLUMN in The Economist. It's named after the Buttonwood Agreement signed under the eponymous tree, which I'm sure I don't need to explain. So Buttonwood is a type of tree not a person per se. A Buttonwood LOG may be more appropriate than BLOG?

 

Anyway, quiet enough nonsense now; time for the pub.

 

Bye bye, everybody. Bye bye 

 

Buttonwood describes itself as a blog, and you're arguing that it isn't one? That's an, er, interesting line of argumentation .

 

Anyway, from the Buttonwood column/blog/whatever on 27 June:

 

http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2016/06/markets-after-referendum

 

According to Buttonwood, we're supposed to be in recession now. We're not.

 

I don't know about anybody else, but when someone gets one major prediction wrong, I tend to take their next one with a large pinch of salt.

[AlexRich]

18 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

What a neat little cop-out. Can't name any corps that are cutting back because they're keeping quiet, and corps that are shouting from the rooftops about investing have to be ignored .

 

No sale. I'll continue to flag up the good news on investment in UK Inc.

 

Ryanair, WPP, Virgin Money, JP Morgan ... just a few. Anyone who believes that international companies are queuing up to invest in the UK is seriously deluded. 

 

If the wonderful scenario you are highlighting had any truth to it the GBP position would be strengthening, not weakening. The first confirmation of Article 50 and recent indications about 'hard Brexit' clobbered the currency ... the markets way of downgrading the economic prospects of the country.

 

[Khun Han]

6 hours ago, SheungWan said:

 

I assume you have never read The Economist before (which is a bit if a giveaway) because there are no journalist names against any articles in the magazine.

 

Funnily enough, I buy the Economist very occasionally, and nearly bought a sub last year off the back of a great avios deal associated with it. It's actually a mix of blogs written under noms de plume whereby you can follow the reasoning over a period of time (and back reference) if you want to, and anonymous opinion-laden articles which have to be trodden through cautiously. It's high quality journalism, but it aint no bible.

 

Thanks for the personal dig by the way .

[Khun Han]

24 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

There's a pro-trump thaivisa member who insists trump is winning because very occasionally a poll shows it to be so.  At least he's citing something with some statistical basis. You're just cherry picking.

 

Until some org does a major piece of research on this, it's all we've got. But you'd prefer for it to be ignored in favour of endless negative speculation and attempts to link Sterling finding the level the IMF says it should be at with an imagined impending doom. I'll stick with reality for now, thanks. Which is a buoyant economy with ever-more companies increasing their investment.

[AlexRich]

It'll be interesting to watch public opinion move as the economic reality of 'hard Brexit' hits home ... and pockets start to get hurt as prices rise in the shops. 

[SheungWan]

23 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Funnily enough, I buy the Economist very occasionally, and nearly bought a sub last year off the back of a great avios deal associated with it. It's actually a mix of blogs written under noms de plume whereby you can follow the reasoning over a period of time (and back reference) if you want to, and anonymous opinion-laden articles which have to be trodden through cautiously. It's high quality journalism, but it aint no bible.

 

Thanks for the personal dig by the way .

 

Don't know about the Economist Avios deal but I previously took out the 3-year Economist sub with 20,000 Asia Miles bonus. Unsure if it is still running.

Edited October 16, 2016 by SheungWan

[Khun Han]

8 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

 

Don't know about the Economist Avios deal but I previously took out the 3-year Economist sub with 20,000 Asia Miles bonus. Unsure if it is still running.

 

It was 12,000 Avios for a one year sub.

[AlexRich]

The price of Brexit?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/oct/14/uk-living-standards-decline-pound-fall-too-high-price-brexit

[MJP]

30 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

The price of Brexit?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/oct/14/uk-living-standards-decline-pound-fall-too-high-price-brexit

 

Wealth of people in their 30s has 'halved in a decade'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37508968

 

It's been going down the £$%tter for a long time now.

Edited October 16, 2016 by MJP

[AlexRich]

Price rises in 2017 ... and the GBP has fallen further than so-called 'project fear' forecasts. Turning into 'project reality' by the look of things:

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-3839836/Retailers-prepare-hike-prices-5-Christmas-pound-plunges-Project-Fear-forecasts.html

 

 

[AlexRich]

Even the Brexit loving Daily Mail  is having to report on the 'reality' of Brexit:

 

‘As inflation returns over the winter it will squeeze household incomes and spending. The pressure on consumers and the cautious approach to spending by businesses mean the UK is facing a period of relatively low growth.’

Mark Gregory, EY chief economist, said: ‘The economy has not fallen off a cliff since the referendum, but recent developments have led to a more downbeat assessment of the outlook. The holidays are over and businesses are now looking hard at plans and budgets. Both investment and hiring plans are likely to be squeezed in the current environment.’

 http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-3839959/Success-economy-post-vote-deceptive-growth-slump-just-0-8-year.html#ixzz4NH0F7rt1 
 

[Grouse]

4 hours ago, nontabury said:

 

  Earlier in this thread,someone said 10% tariffs. Now who said that,ah yes one of the Remoaners.

 

Yes, that's typical but what about none tariff barriers after divergence?

[Grouse]

4 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

P1ss off and put me on your ignore list Alex. You're a pack dog, and, incredibly, even more boorish than chiang mai.

 

Good Lord! That's a bit much!

[AlexRich]

11 minutes ago, Grouse said:

 

Good Lord! That's a bit much!

 

We have history ... he purposefully misinterprets the points that people make, and I enjoy picking him up on it when he does it. 

[MJP]

1 hour ago, AlexRich said:

The price of Brexit?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/oct/14/uk-living-standards-decline-pound-fall-too-high-price-brexit

 

Comments really worth reading more than the article . . . 

 

Quote

Artusov

1d ago 

34

An utterly and truly appalling collection of misleading and dishonest statements : -

1. ' The Brexit vote..... presaged economic disaster '

It didn't and it hasn't. The UK is not in recession . The pound has been falling against the Euro and Dollar for 20 and 30 years - in a cyclic downward trend - and is now falling at a slightly higher rate post 23 June.

2. Hate Crimes up 41 %

Only for JULY. They have returned to normal levels. Given the huge number of immigrants 
from all over the globe started by Blair and Brown - vote gerrymandering - Is anyone surprised ? What's this got to do with economics anyway ?

3. ' Insolvencies at 1400 '

MEANINGLESS. Ten of thousands of businesses fail every year. Most small businesses fail within 5 - 10 years. What % is this ?

4. ' The pound has been in freefall '

Emotive , hysterical and exaggerated scaremongering

5. ' No floor insight '

Trying looking down between your legs. If you are indoors you will see a ' floor ' unless you are in bed or in the bath

6. ' EU leaders - no deal '

What do you expect them to say at this stage and in public ?

7. Bond yields have risen

They go up and down , you know . They had a long run down recently . So perhaps ' up ' is expected.

8. An FT reporter says something

The FT was convinced we should have joined the EURO -that's how smart they are

9. The pound is over-valued

Given the long running and huge balance of trade deficits for the last 5 years the state of the pound is not surprising. I'm surprised it has any value at all.

10. The Big Mac Price Index

Meaningless. If you earn a lot , then a ' relatively expensive to the UK price ' burger means nothing. The figure should be ' How long does it take Mr Average to earn enough to buy one ? '

PS Anyone who eats Big Macs deserves to be poor.

Remember : You are just an economist.

You produce nothing and tell us nothing

There are too many of you

Your only talent is to get mugs to pay you.

Won't Spurs take you back as a janitor ?

 

[AlexRich]

3 minutes ago, MJP said:

 

Comments really worth reading more than the article . . . 

 

 

 

You're tag line really say's it all:

 

"Hello from Little England" ... 

 

The Artusov post was a great example of the disdain for 'experts' ... funny how the government is now hiring foreign trade negotiation experts to deliver on the Brexit negotiations? Over here taking our jobs! I'm surprised they never just put up the vacancies at the job centre ... who needs experts?

[Khun Han]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

 

Yes, that's typical but what about none tariff barriers after divergence?

 

Christy Sweet finally got some company in my 'ignore' room today. Should be some interesting conversations in there: professional apologist for serial killers meets Alpha Male who struggles to get his lies straight .

 

I know, I know. I'm being childish. Sometimes childish is fun.

Edited October 16, 2016 by Khun Han

[MJP]

9 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

 

You're tag line really say's it all:

 

"Hello from Little England" ... 

 

The Artusov post was a great example of the disdain for 'experts' ... funny how the government is now hiring foreign trade negotiation experts to deliver on the Brexit negotiations? Over here taking our jobs! I'm surprised they never just put up the vacancies at the job centre ... who needs experts?

 

Well, thanks for posting it anyway.

[AlexRich]

... I wonder if the hardline Brexit Pollyanna's will still be posting here as the economic reality sinks in? ... indications that Hammond being frozen out by the PM ... she doesn't like to hear the truth either ... but it seems the electorate want her to focus on trade rather than immigration ... looks like the honeymoon is over for Theresa.