May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[Guest]

59 minutes ago, phutoie2 said:

Well we will have just learn how to do without exchanging our Ferrari's and coffee machines annually. For food there's an Aldi and Lidl just about everywhere.

Aldi and Lidl are German and might not be able to offer good deals in UK, if there are hefty import taxes from EU to UK. 

[mommysboy]

1 hour ago, Naam said:

such as Spanish olives from Thailand, Ferraris from China, Italian commercial coffee machines from Myanmar, French cheese from the Philippines, CNC machinery from Mongolia...

 

Whatever the deal, it can't be worse than the trade imbalance we have with Germany for instance.  The question is: is bad trade better than no trade?  Regrettably I think it is, unless one can find anything better.

 

I didn't want to leave EU in truth, but I really can't justify that wish on long term economic grounds.  There's going to be a lot of pain short and medium term. It's already happening to those in unfortunate circumstances.  I'm not sure I like the idea of my remaining 20 years (notional I admit) being characterized by austerity and financial misery.  I wish the damned vote had never happened in all honesty.

[mommysboy]

9 hours ago, Flustered said:

If anything, I am an underachiever.

 

Never went to university as I come from a poor family and had to start work early. Came up the hard way through the army and they taught me to look after myself as no one else would. Learned to use the system rather than fight it.

 

I am so looking forward to the opportunities offered by Brexit. The talks will be hard and in the end industry and commerce will put the politicians in their place as jobless people mean lost votes...... the politicians nightmare.

 

Look for many more trade agreements between the UK and Asia and the opportunities these offer. If the EU play hard, there is nothing we buy from them that cannot be bought cheaper elsewhere.

 

Underachieving is characterized by a person who does not live up to his/her talents and given circumstances.  If you were the son of an Oxford don then yes you underachieved.  On the other hand if you were poor, you could not possibly be expected to be degree educated until recent times.

 

Sadly, I am a pessimist.  Sometimes it doesn't pay to be realistic.  No doubt it has cost me. 

 

I'm sure you have covered all angles.  But be sure to sort out your affairs in Blighty so that your daughter and grand child don't miss out. If you or your wife suffer something like Alzheimers in the UK,  then your estate will be pounded with care home costs.  Dare say I'm preaching to the converted.  I imagine you are insured to the hilt already or have the will sorted.

[SheungWan]

3 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Interesting article in the Telegraph today which might upset the die hard remainers on here.

 

It came as a poll showed that Remain voters appear to be warming to the idea of Brexit, with more than half of them wanting an end to freedom of movement.

A similar proportion of people who voted to stay in the EU also support a ban on welfare payments for EU migrants.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/21/remain-voters-warming-idea-brexit-poll-shows/

 

 

This is very very true. In my own situation I have been regularly discussing Brexit with my regular massage girl on Soi Buakaow, so when last night she asked me to turn over I interpreted this as a firm invitation to move to a new position. I have seen the light.

[sandyf]

14 hours ago, Flustered said:

Nothing to do with under funding services, I don't see how you read that into it.

 

It's all about how councils and other public sectors handle their budgets. They feel that the answer is always more tax.

 

Anyone with half a brain cell can see that as the population increases, there will never be enough money to pay pensions if you rely on taxation. A complete overhaul of the pension system is needed. (just remembered, We had the best private pension scheme in the world until the Brown destroyer ruined it).

 

If you take pension payments out of the council tax bill, all of the services become viable.  My wife and I realised at an early age that we would need money in our old age so we went without holidays, didn't drink (excessively) or smoke and put every penny we could into a private pension fund. That's why we could retire at 55 and enjoy our old age without relying on the State pension which we have also paid into of course. Now we just travel and enjoy ourselves.

 

My overall thinking on this is that people should take responsibility for themselves and not rely on the State or Public sector to fund their retirement. I know many countries where there are no State pensions and people seem to get on OK. Mind you, the family unit is a lot closer there as they look after each other, not like America or Europe.

 

On another note but to do with the thread subject.....Mary Doll Sturgeon took a right hammering in the debate today on television. Her days are numbered. if she manages to have a referendum, I hope she has the decency to resign when she looses..

Maybe you can show me where I mentioned pensions, you have more tangents than the fruit and veg man.

You obviously consider the NHS and other essential services to be adequately funded, end of story.

[dick dasterdly]

2 hours ago, pitrevie said:

If you recall only days after the Brexit vote Johnson, Hannan and other Brexiters were asked this very question and the reverse rowing started immediately. None of them promised they could reduce immigration or even wanted to. The reaction of the interviewer says it all when Hannan makes that statement.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/06/tory-brexiter-daniel-hannan-leave-campaign-never-promised-radical-decline

 

And that's one of the main worries IMO - that politicians will find a way to keep 'open borders' as it suits their (and their 'chums') financial interests .

 

I think they'll find it a bit difficult to 'sell' to the electorate though?

[dick dasterdly]

4 hours ago, pitrevie said:

"But nine in ten people want Britain to maintain free trade with the EU after Brexit, regardless of which way they voted in last year’s referendum." Which is what Boris Johnson and many of the principal players told us would happen should we vote Brexit. Difficult to see how that is going to happen.

Not possessing a crystal ball...., it seems likely that individual EU countries will be made v aware by their companies that they need to trade with the UK - without OTT trade tariffs on both sides.

[Khun Han]

35 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Not possessing a crystal ball...., it seems likely that individual EU countries will be made v aware by their companies that they need to trade with the UK - without OTT trade tariffs on both sides.

 

Your crystal ball is pretty clear. At the end of the day, big business will call the big shots.

[sandyf]

20 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Not possessing a crystal ball...., it seems likely that individual EU countries will be made v aware by their companies that they need to trade with the UK - without OTT trade tariffs on both sides.

That is an exaggerated rumour, just because they do does not mean they need to. How does a 60 million problematic population compare to 700 million hassle free sitting on your doorstep.

Many seem ignore the fact it is not just about pricing, there will be a lot more paperwork involved once the UK leaves the customs union. Back to the good old days when non perishables were stacked up at point of entry awaiting customs clearance. Nothing like the collection of government revenues to slow down paperwork processing. 

Approx 7% of Germany's exports come to the UK, it would be a bit arrogant for the UK to think that the loss of that trade would cripple them. The reality is that they would never lose all of it, there will always be people in the UK prepared to buy German goods whatever was involved.

[Khun Han]

You vill luff each other, or else! The EU exposes it's ugly, dictatorial side yet again:

 

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/eu-mocks-britain-anti-brexit-111122506.html

[Flustered]

8 hours ago, SheungWan said:

I look forward to reading further potted family histories and investment tips on this thread.  We need more inspirational guidance to take us forward into the opportunities of a new post-Brexit world.

Will you ever post information on a thread or are you stuck in FM criticism mode? You seem to be more of a post critic than a thread contributor.

[nontabury]

29 minutes ago, sandyf said:

That is an exaggerated rumour, just because they do does not mean they need to. How does a 60 million problematic population compare to 700 million hassle free sitting on your doorstep.

Many seem ignore the fact it is not just about pricing, there will be a lot more paperwork involved once the UK leaves the customs union. Back to the good old days when non perishables were stacked up at point of entry awaiting customs clearance. Nothing like the collection of government revenues to slow down paperwork processing. 

Approx 7% of Germany's exports come to the UK, it would be a bit arrogant for the UK to think that the loss of that trade would cripple them. The reality is that they would never lose all of it, there will always be people in the UK prepared to buy German goods whatever was involved.

7% is a sizable amount that no country or industry would be happy to loose.

 Regarding the inflated price for German goods,I'm sure some in the UK will still be prepared to buy,if no agreement is made. Probably the rich Remoaners and their friends.

 

 

 

[Flustered]

Put in perspective and not just a small piece of the truth, German exports (top 10) for 2016 were as follows:

 

In other words, they would loose their 3rd largest export country. It would not happen of course, probably in the case of a hard Brexit, it would drop to somewhere around the Spanish level. Still a sizable reduction in export.

 

Further, you have to look at what is affected, i.e cars and heavy machinery. All employing large number of skilled workers who more importantly are voters.

 

 

 

United States	9178900.00		Sep/16
France	9029074.00		Sep/16
United Kingdom	7809086.00		Sep/16
China	6589718.00		Sep/16
Italy	5528732.00		Sep/16
Austria	5355760.00		Sep/16
Poland	4868073.00		Sep/16
Switzerland	4607001.00		Sep/16
Belgium	3679038.00		Sep/16
Spain	3549003.00		Sep/16

[sandyf]

38 minutes ago, nontabury said:

7% is a sizable amount that no country or industry would be happy to loose.

 Regarding the inflated price for German goods,I'm sure some in the UK will still be prepared to buy,if no agreement is made. Probably the rich Remoaners and their friends.

 

Who said they would be happy? They must be really p'd off with all the 'what if' scenarios on production and investment.

 

"BMW hinted it may move production of the iconic Mini from England to continental Europe as a result of the UK’s decision to leave the EU. "

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-mini-cars-production-move-uk-bmw-boss-hints-a7642081.html

[Grouse]

5 hours ago, AlexRich said:

 

I laughed out loud at the Whetherspoon's CEO on Question Time, an ardent Brexit supporter, when he said we needed to maintain immigration, something that he did not have a problem with? 

I'll bet 95% of Wetherspoons customers are Brexiteers ? 

[evadgib]

The £350m p/w provided a stick to beat the Brexit camp with, but do the remainers also recall the baloney when the lottery was launched in 1994 which promised a New County Hospital in Every County from the proceeds?

 

Can anyone name a new hospital anywhere in the Kingdom built after 1994 funded as described?

 

Has anyone from either camp whinged about it?

 

How many of todays politicians had a hand in that and what side are they on re Brexit...?

 

"'Tickets Please!" 

 

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, Flustered said:

Put in perspective and not just a small piece of the truth, German exports (top 10) for 2016 were as follows:

 

In other words, they would loose their 3rd largest export country. It would not happen of course, probably in the case of a hard Brexit, it would drop to somewhere around the Spanish level. Still a sizable reduction in export.

 

Further, you have to look at what is affected, i.e cars and heavy machinery. All employing large number of skilled workers who more importantly are voters.

 

 

 

United States	9178900.00		Sep/16
France	9029074.00		Sep/16
United Kingdom	7809086.00		Sep/16
China	6589718.00		Sep/16
Italy	5528732.00		Sep/16
Austria	5355760.00		Sep/16
Poland	4868073.00		Sep/16
Switzerland	4607001.00		Sep/16
Belgium	3679038.00		Sep/16
Spain	3549003.00		Sep/16

The truth is that Mercedes, Porsche, Leica, Heidelberg buyers are unlikely to be dissuaded by import duty. What about British exports to Germany? Have you worked it out yet?

[mommysboy]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

Who said they would be happy? They must be really p'd off with all the 'what if' scenarios on production and investment.

 

"BMW hinted it may move production of the iconic Mini from England to continental Europe as a result of the UK’s decision to leave the EU. "

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-mini-cars-production-move-uk-bmw-boss-hints-a7642081.html

 

What if not a lot changes!  Seems the most likely scenario imo. Even if no agreement is reached a ten year transition period on trade would seem eminently sensible for both parties. A lot can happen in that time.

 

The city will buy passporting/equivalence.

[mommysboy]

10 minutes ago, Grouse said:

The truth is that Mercedes, Porsche, Leica, Heidelberg buyers are unlikely to be dissuaded by import duty. What about British exports to Germany? Have you worked it out yet?

 

I think the issue for UK is more about genuine access. 

 

 

[Naam]

18 minutes ago, Grouse said:

The truth is that Mercedes, Porsche, Leica, Heidelberg buyers are unlikely to be dissuaded by import duty. What about British exports to Germany? Have you worked it out yet?

Quote

Below is a list showcasing 15 of United Kingdom’s top trading partners in terms of export sales. That is, these are countries that imported the most UK shipments by dollar value during 2016. Also shown is each import country’s percentage of total UK exports.

1. United States: US$60.4 billion (14.8% of total UK exports)
2. Germany: $43.6 billion (10.7%)
3. France: $25.9 billion (6.3%)
4. Netherlands: $25.6 billion (6.3%)
5. Ireland: $22.9 billion (5.6%)
6. Switzerland: $18.9 billion (4.6%)
7. China: $18 billion (4.4%)
8. Belgium: $15.8 billion (3.9%)
9. Italy: $13.1 billion (3.2%)
10. Spain: $12.7 billion (3.1%)
11. United Arab Emirates: $9 billion (2.2%)
12. Hong Kong: $8.8 billion (2.2%)
13. Japan: $6.4 billion (1.6%)
14. Canada: $6.2 billion (1.5%)
15. Sweden: $6.1 billion (1.5%)

 

[Grouse]

11 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

 

What if not a lot changes!  Seems the most likely scenario imo. Even if no agreement is reached a ten year transition period on trade would seem eminently sensible for both parties. A lot can happen in that time.

 

The city will buy passporting/equivalence.

I hope you are correct!

 

I fear the central aim is to crash out and follow with slashing corporation tax and turning England into a low rent, low tax, low service, low pay offshore economy ?

[mommysboy]

3 minutes ago, Grouse said:

I hope you are correct!

 

I fear the central aim is to crash out and follow with slashing corporation tax and turning England into a low rent, low tax, low service, low pay offshore economy ?

I rather think this is a possibility too.  In fact we're more than half way there already.

Edited March 22, 2017 by mommysboy
additional info

[AlexRich]

53 minutes ago, evadgib said:

The £350m p/w provided a stick to beat the Brexit camp with, but do the remainers also recall the baloney when the lottery was launched in 1994 which promised a New County Hospital in Every County from the proceeds?

 

Can anyone name a new hospital anywhere in the Kingdom built after 1994 funded as described?

 

Has anyone from either camp whinged about it?

 

How many of todays politicians had a hand in that and what side are they on re Brexit...?

 

"'Tickets Please!" 

 

 

 

Is that the best argument you could offer up? At least the lottery actually raised money, I don't think this saving will actually materialise.

 

The argument was look at all the savings we will make by withdrawing from the EU, and that will all be going into public services ... like the NHS. The consensus figure was around £10 billion ... how much of that will be spent on public services after the EU forward commitment bill has been settled? Even if the bill is half the £50 billion claim the so-called saving will be wiped out for two and a half years. Couple that with reduced growth (from what it would have been) and lower tax revenues and the UK is facing a tough few years ... and when the dust has settled we'll all see the reality of post-Brexit Britain ... or should that be England and Wales after the break up? 

 

I fear Brexit will be viewed as a phyrric victory ... one not worth the cost.

Edited March 22, 2017 by AlexRich

[AlexRich]

10 minutes ago, Grouse said:

I hope you are correct!

 

I fear the central aim is to crash out and follow with slashing corporation tax and turning England into a low rent, low tax, low service, low pay offshore economy ?

Yes, with a permanent Conservative majority. Who will be the losers in this post-Brexit world? I suspect many of the peiople who voted for it. 

[Grouse]

5 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

 

 

Is that the best argument you could offer up? At least the lottery actually raised money, I don't think this saving will actually materialise.

 

The argument was look at all the savings we will make by withdrawing from the EU, and that will all be going into public services ... like the NHS. The consensus figure was around £10 billion ... how much of that will be spent on public services after the EU forward commitment bill has been settled? Even if the bill is half the £50 billion claim the so-called saving will be wiped out for two and a half years. Couple that with reduced growth (from what it would have been) and lower tax revenues and the UK is facing a tough few years ... and when the dust has settled we'll all see the reality of post-Brexit Britain ... or should that be England and Wales after the break up? 

 

I fear Brexit will be viewed as a phyrric victory ... one not worth the cost.

I will be dead before any of the putative benefits materialise

[Grouse]

4 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

Yes, with a permanent Conservative majority. Who will be the losers in this post-Brexit world? I suspect many of the peiople who voted for it. 

The poor numpties ?

[evadgib]

11 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

 

 

Is that the best argument you could offer up? At least the lottery actually raised money, I don't think this saving will actually materialise.

 

The argument was look look at all the savings we will make by withdrawing from the EU, and that will all be going into public services ... like the NHS. The consensus figure was around £10 billion ... how much of that will be spent on public services after the EU forward commitment bill has been settled? Even if the bill is half the £50 billion claim the so-called saving will be wiped out for two and a half years. Couple that with reduced growth (from what it would have been) and lower tax revenues and the UK is facing a tough few years ... and when the dust has settled we'll all see the reality of post-Brexit Britain ... or should that be England and Wales after the break up? 

 

I fear Brexit will be viewed as a phyrric victory ... one not worth the cost.

Argument? I merely offered an example of a similar gaffe by HMG in order to plug an agenda which later proved incorrect or downright false for which no one was held to account. Tagging a little humour on the end is supposed to make people laugh but it occasionally attracts a bite...

 

 

Edited March 22, 2017 by evadgib

[AlexRich]

1 minute ago, Grouse said:

I will be dead before any of the putative benefits materialise

 

I think if you were born today you'd be dead before the putative benefits materialise. I'm unfortunately resigned to this lunacy ... all that's left is the schadenfreude from watching those that voted for it wake up to the reality of it ... of course by that time it will be the fault of the "remoaners" for talking the nation down, or what's left of it after the break up. 

[AlexRich]

3 minutes ago, evadgib said:

Argument? I merely offered an example of a similar gaffe by HMG in order to plug an agenda which later proved incorrect or downright false for which no one was held to account.

 

The lottery did raise money? What was it spent on ... public services I would guess? 

[Flustered]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

The truth is that Mercedes, Porsche, Leica, Heidelberg buyers are unlikely to be dissuaded by import duty. What about British exports to Germany? Have you worked it out yet?

Thanks for the intro...

 

Although this is 2014, the figures for 2016 would probably be even worse as our trade gap is widening.

 

Germany has the biggest trade deficit with us—it sold £27 billion more in goods and services to us in 2014 than we sold to it, according to UK data.

Edited March 22, 2017 by Flustered