Bloomberg today. Bangkok investments rising fast

[trogers]

52 minutes ago, mcfish said:

That mantra has been repeated a million times in the last 20 years of TV and if we're trued would have exploded a bubble but we have the highly respected Bloomberg telling us what's really going on. Even at todays sky rocketing Bangkok condo prices it's still relatively cheap but unfortunately fence sitters have missed the ride up

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What the property professionals are not telling is that the average take-up rate of new launches are only 77%, and that is on bookings. Come completion, you may see up to 15% of these bookings becoming resale units...

[mcfish]

 
What the property professionals are not telling is that the average take-up rate of new launches are only 77%, and that is on bookings. Come completion, you may see up to 15% of these bookings becoming resale units...

You have a link to that research? Anyone can state any number they like here it means nothing. But your still not getting it. The Bloomberg study is identifying emerging markets. These are where the biggest gains will be made in time. It takes balls but that's how you earn serious wealth

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[trogers]

6 minutes ago, mcfish said:

You have a link to that research? Anyone can state any number they like here it means nothing. But your still not getting it. The Bloomberg study is identifying emerging markets. These are where the biggest gains will be made in time. It takes balls but that's how you earn serious wealth

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http://www.ddproperty.com/ข่าวอสังหาริมทรัพย์-บทความ/2016/11/141276/pattaya-s-property-market-doesn-t-impress?utm_source=pgth-newsalert&utm_medium=edm&utm_campaign=dailynews-22Nov2016&utm_content=links

[mcfish]

This is an article written by real estate salesman on pattaya!!

No surprises there and I'm afraid you have lost all credibility if you don't understand the different demographics of a resort town vs BANGKOK

this is why I stick with expert opinions like Bloomberg who have no reason to twist the big picture

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[mcfish]

 

http://www.ddproperty.com/ข่าวอสังหาริมทรัพย์-บทความ/2016/11/141276/pattaya-s-property-market-doesn-t-impress?utm_source=pgth-newsalert&utm_medium=edm&utm_campaign=dailynews-22Nov2016&utm_content=links

This is an article written by real estate salesman on pattaya!!

No surprises there and I'm afraid you have lost all credibility if you don't understand the different demographics of a resort town vs BANGKOK

this is why I stick with expert opinions like Bloomberg who have no reason to twist the big picture

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[trogers]

16 minutes ago, mcfish said:

This is an article written by real estate salesman on pattaya!!

No surprises there and I'm afraid you have lost all credibility if you don't understand the different demographics of a resort town vs BANGKOK

this is why I stick with expert options like Bloomberg who have no reason to twist the big picture

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If a real estate salesman cannot paint a rosy picture for you, imagine the reality...

 

Bangkok is not that different, just a little behind in lag time. I keep looking at that two projects at the intersection of Sukhumvit with Rama 4, and have not seen much movement in sales when take-up rate is below 50% and construction completion has been 1-3 years ago.

 

We have to ask ourselves, which major cities have projects that still carry developers' sales office 5 years or more after construction completion, and would say that the property market still has growth potential?

Edited November 23, 2016 by trogers

[mcfish]

 
If a real estate salesman cannot paint a rosy picture for you, imagine the reality...
 
Bangkok is not that different, just a little behind in lag time. I keep looking at that two projects at the intersection of Sukhumvit with Rama 4, and have not seen much movement in sales when take-up rate is below 50% and construction completion has been 1-3 years ago.

If I were somebody wanting to accumulate cheap property that's the article I would write, but come on man your all over the place, trying to substitute pattaya for Bangkok with a dodgy article written by a complete nobody

This is typical of Thai visa, misinformation.

Try and stay on topic, it's all about Bangkok. Bloomberg got that right at least lol

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[trogers]

2 minutes ago, mcfish said:

If I were somebody wanting to accumulate cheap property that's the article I would write, but come on man your all over the place, trying to substitute pattaya for Bangkok with a dodgy article written by a complete nobody

This is typical of Thai visa, misinformation.

Try and stay on topic, it's all about Bangkok. Bloomberg got that right at least lol

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That's the point - shoebox units near to mass transit...cheap properties...

 

Supply and demand scenarios for expensive and older large units are different due to a lack of new supplies over the last 5-7 years.

[lkn]

11 minutes ago, mcfish said:

[…] this is why I stick with expert opinions like Bloomberg who have no reason to twist the big picture […]

 

Of course they have, they want you to think that a Bloomberg subscription will give you key insight to use for successful investing, and thus they can sometimes be a tad too optimistic about “new investment opportunities in X”.

 

Though this report is not made by Bloomberg, it is by PwC (but maybe commissioned by Bloomberg?).

 

And my comments are not about Thai real estate, it’s just about not putting too much faith in this list, as I pointed out in a previous comment, past performance of the list does not seem all that good.

 

Also, being number 8 on a list of 22 places, and getting that number 8 spot from a survey, does not say anything about whether or not you should buy a condo in Thailand and expect it to appreciate.

 

I started investing a decade ago, initially I followed a lot of analysts, it didn’t take me long to realize that they are not much different than any other journalist, and doing my own research was superior to the “free advice” I could get by following the various analysts.

 

You seem to have very high regard for “the experts at Bloomberg”, are you an investor? Have you invested based on what you read in Bloomberg with a successful outcome (and by successful I mean better than just investing in an index fund)?

 

Disclaimer: I have never bought any of the special reports, I would expect these are of a much higher quality than what you can read online (for free), and I would also expect them to be much more about data/numbers than specific advice about what, where, and when to invest.

[mcfish]

 
Of course they have, they want you to think that a Bloomberg subscription will give you key insight to use for successful investing, and thus they can sometimes be a tad too optimistic about “new investment opportunities in X”.
 
Though this report is not made by Bloomberg, it is by PwC (but maybe commissioned by Bloomberg?).
 
And my comments are not about Thai real estate, it’s just about not putting too much faith in this list, as I pointed out in a previous comment, past performance of the list does not seem all that good.
 
Also, being number 8 on a list of 22 places, and getting that number 8 spot from a survey, does not say anything about whether or not you should buy a condo in Thailand and expect it to appreciate.
 
I started investing a decade ago, initially I followed a lot of analysts, it didn’t take me long to realize that they are not much different than any other journalist, and doing my own research was superior to the “free advice” I could get by following the various analysts.
 
You seem to have very high regard for “the experts at Bloomberg”, are you an investor? Have you invested based on what you read in Bloomberg with a successful outcome (and by successful I mean better than just investing in an index fund)?
 
Disclaimer: I have never bought any of the special reports, I would expect these are of a much higher quality than what you can read online (for free), and I would also expect them to be much more about data/numbers than specific advice about what, where, and when to invest.

Bloomberg are great for identifying emerging markets Wether it's a property or stock market but a lot of is not for the faint hearted. They have created incredible wealth for subscribers over the years. They have no reason to put out a false report on Bangkok but as usual and Like what happened in India most wait until the chart goes vertically before jumping on-board


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[Anthony5]

1 minute ago, mcfish said:

Bloomberg are great for identifying emerging markets Wether it's a property or stock market but a lot of is not for the faint hearted. They have created incredible wealth for subscribers over the years. They have no reason to put out a false report on Bangkok but as usual and Like what happened in India most wait until the chart goes vertically before jumping on-board


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Now if there ever would be proof of a Bloomberg fanboy, it was just given.

 

They have created incredible wealth for subscribers over the years.

 

How do you create wealth by reporting the actuality, which can be read on hundreds of other sources?

[trogers]

1 minute ago, Anthony5 said:

 

 

Now if there ever would be proof of a Bloomberg fanboy, it was just given.

 

They have created incredible wealth for subscribers over the years.

 

How do you create wealth by reporting the actuality, which can be read on hundreds of other sources?

 

Wealth is created by jumping in even before Bloomberg started studies for their report...?

[mcfish]

 

 

Now if there ever would be proof of a Bloomberg fanboy, it was just given.

 

They have created incredible wealth for subscribers over the years.

 

How do you create wealth by reporting the actuality, which can be read on hundreds of other sources?

Hey you don't have to follow them but what I'm seeing here are some upset TV armchair experts that can't handle a respectable company like Bloomberg publishing well researched info on Bangkok rising quickly up the investment ladder

We even have one fellow trogers preferred to go with an article written by an anonymous nobody about pattaya! How misinformed can you be possible get LOL

I Will stick with Bloomberg they have helped me immensely with the stock market, not going to switch to TV barstool team any time soon..

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[lkn]

13 minutes ago, mcfish said:

[…] They have no reason to put out a false report on Bangkok […]

 

I am not saying the report is false.

 

What I am saying is that often these “analysts” are describing current trends rather than predicting the future, and if you invest based on current trends, you’re often too late. An example of this was Singapore which I mentioned earlier.

 

Another example of analysts simply reacting to the market can be seen if you plot a stock price and its target price (from analysts), when the stock goes up, the analysts will adjust their target sometime after, and the same when it goes down. Logically the analysts would only adjust their targets whenever the company report last quarter earnings (or in some rare circumstances, when numbers are released that affect the market of the company), but this is not at all how it seems to work. I have seen “irrational” stock movements, i.e. not based on any actual numbers, and lo and behold, shortly after the analysts will follow along…

[lkn]

11 minutes ago, mcfish said:

[…] what I'm seeing here are some upset TV armchair experts that can't handle a respectable company like Bloomberg publishing well researched info on Bangkok rising quickly up the investment ladder […]

 

Right, a summary of a survey of which Asian countries investors expect to see real estate prices go up (where Bangkok is #8) is a well researched piece on the quick rise of Bangkok… or are you referring to another piece?

 

And I don’t think anyone is upset here, I am not even sure people are bullish on Bangkok (at least I am not), just telling you that this one free article from Bloomberg should not be the basis of your investment decisions.

 

[KittenKong]

1 hour ago, mcfish said:

Your looking at it wrong, you should be looking at the staggering jump!
India was never considered safe or desirable but look where it sits now?
Bloomberg know their stuff they have top class analysts, only a fool would discard their research!!

 

I look at the staggering jump in context, which I think makes it somewhat less staggering.

 

India seems about as desirable to me as a hole in the head.

 

As with most journalism, this report does not show the complete picture. Just some aspects of it. I am particularly wary of business surveys, which are generally highly biased.

[mcfish]

 
I am not saying the report is false.
 
What I am saying is that often these “analysts” are describing current trends rather than predicting the future, and if you invest based on current trends, you’re often too late. An example of this was Singapore which I mentioned earlier.
 
Another example of analysts simply reacting to the market can be seen if you plot a stock price and its target price (from analysts), when the stock goes up, the analysts will adjust their target sometime after, and the same when it goes down. Logically the analysts would only adjust their targets whenever the company report last quarter earnings (or in some rare circumstances, when numbers are released that affect the market of the company), but this is not at all how it seems to work. I have seen “irrational” stock movements, i.e. not based on any actual numbers, and lo and behold, shortly after the analysts will follow along…

I agree with you to a degree but even current trends does not mean your to late, nobody will know when the current trend will stop. As your well aware shrewd investors wait for a strong up trend before plonking down the cash in the stock market which pushes the uptrend to many multiples.

This is what happened in India, a place at the time was just to weird to invest in but everyone jumped on board once a trend was established. Bangkok is just a city with a very good trend happening right now, in 5 years it may be unreachable to the average Joe

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[trogers]

15 minutes ago, mcfish said:

Hey you don't have to follow them but what I'm seeing here are some upset TV armchair experts that can't handle a respectable company like Bloomberg publishing well researched info on Bangkok rising quickly up the investment ladder

We even have one fellow trogers preferred to go with an article written by an anonymous nobody about pattaya! How misinformed can you be possible get LOL

I Will stick with Bloomberg they have helped me immensely with the stock market, not going to switch to TV barstool team any time soon..

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Sometime barstool info can be useful.

 

I started buying old large condo units in 2007, experience gained from my tussle with financing banks in 2006 over a new development. Even then, banks insisted to finance only projects consisting mainly of shoebox units.

 

After almost 5 months, we managed to compromise on having four 1-bedroom units (42 sqm) on every floor with the eight 2-bedroom units. This was the time Noble, Supalai and other big boys were launching their shoebox units.

 

I had betted against the market that is being bank-led into the future.

 

Many times info from the ground precedes those of analysts by quarters and years.

[chiang mai]

2 hours ago, KittenKong said:

 

OK, so you know some impoverished farangs who wont invest in Thailand. So do I. But how many wealthy farangs do you know who do invest directly in Thailand?

 

I dont know any of the latter, apart from some people whom I suspect to have illegally acquired wealth that they dont quite know what else to do with. I also know some entirely legitimate people with much more capital than I have (and I'm not exactly on the breadline) who would not invest here if it was the last place on earth. And I understand why.

 

I know several on this forum and two outside of it, plus myself, not that consider myself wealthy.

[bark]

On 22/11/2559 at 4:09 PM, lkn said:

“Singapore, which ranked first in the survey in 2011 and 2012, fell to 21st for next year […] result of […] 12 straight quarters of declining prices in the residential market […]”

 

So four years ago, Singapore was number one, but anyone who invested back then have seen declining prices for the last 3 years.

 

I would take this list with a grain of salt.

Singapores GDP went up because the the Casino, three years ago.

[Airalee]

The "highly respected Bloomberg" had an article on May 14, 2006 titled "Why the housing bubble won't burst"

 

 

Edited November 23, 2016 by Airalee
Spelling

[chiang mai]

5 minutes ago, Airalee said:

The "highly respected Bloomberg" had an article on May 14, 2006 titled "Why the housing bubble won't burst"

 

 

 

And of course, even the most highly respected economist can see all the way out to the year dot.

 

A feature of life is that things change over time hence forecasts become invalid quite quickly.

[Thaidream]

The real people who make money in Thailand on real estate/condos are the ones who can look at an area of interest and project what it will look like in 10-15 years. If it already exists -it is too late.

[blackcab]

14 minutes ago, Thaidream said:

The real people who make money in Thailand on real estate/condos are the ones who can look at an area of interest and project what it will look like in 10-15 years. If it already exists -it is too late.

 

Inevitably those are land deals, not condo deals. From my experience that's an almost exclusively Thai market.

 

There is currently plenty of land speculation around future BTS stations. I recently saw a piece of swamp get sold for 65,000 per square wah because a new BTS station would be built about 1 km away (but that BTS has not even been tendered for yet).

 

That is the kind of speculation that is 10-15 years into the future.

[trogers]

14 hours ago, Airalee said:

The "highly respected Bloomberg" had an article on May 14, 2006 titled "Why the housing bubble won't burst"

 

 

 

The real estate bubble of Japan in 1990 did not burst either. It just gradually deflated for over two decades...creating a lost generation.

[mcfish]

 

The real estate bubble of Japan in 1990 did not burst either. It just gradually deflated for over two decades...creating a lost generation.

Exactly why punters should stay away from places like Japan, Hong Kong, Australia and look for emerging markets. However emerging markets always create fear, it takes balls but the fact Thailand was completely unaffected buy the 2008 global sub prime crash is a hidden sign

I bought property's here in 2006 after selling up back home and in 2008 thought woops did I it stuff up.. No way! Back in the USA properties dropped by 50 to 80% whilst Thailand was completely unaffected.

Thank God I switched. But if you look at the TV posts in 2007 you will find overwhelming mantras, don't buy in Thailand what you can't walk away from. And these guys did there balls.. Haha.. Idiot bar stool boys following silly advise from a forum like TV? They deserve it!

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[mcfish]

Exactly why punters should stay away from places like Japan, Hong Kong, Australia and look for emerging markets. However emerging markets always create fear, it takes balls but the fact Thailand was completely unaffected buy the 2008 global sub prime crash is a hidden sign
I bought property's here in 2006 after selling up back home and in 2008 thought woops did I it stuff up.. No way! Back in the USA properties dropped by 50 to 80% whilst Thailand was completely unaffected.
Thank God I switched. But if you look at the TV posts in 2007 you will find overwhelming mantras, don't buy in Thailand what you can't walk away from. And these guys did there balls.. Haha.. Idiot bar stool boys following silly advise from a forum like TV? They deserve it!
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[trogers]

On 11/24/2016 at 0:00 PM, mcfish said:

Exactly why punters should stay away from places like Japan, Hong Kong, Australia and look for emerging markets. However emerging markets always create fear, it takes balls but the fact Thailand was completely unaffected buy the 2008 global sub prime crash is a hidden sign

I bought property's here in 2006 after selling up back home and in 2008 thought woops did I it stuff up.. No way! Back in the USA properties dropped by 50 to 80% whilst Thailand was completely unaffected.

Thank God I switched. But if you look at the TV posts in 2007 you will find overwhelming mantras, don't buy in Thailand what you can't walk away from. And these guys did there balls.. Haha.. Idiot bar stool boys following silly advise from a forum like TV? They deserve it!

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I have said. Be prepared for a prolong period of deflation when a bubble don't burst. It happened in Japan, and it can happen here too.

 

Now developers have overbuilt and overpriced beyond the earning capacity of even the middle class income earners. What will happen next to rent and capital values?

 

Researchers only come with reports after the fact...