Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) has moved ahead of California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) in early prediction-market odds for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, according to data on Polymarket.
As of Wednesday, Ocasio-Cortez had an 18% chance of winning the Democratic nomination on Polymarket. Newsom was listed at 17%, leaving Ocasio-Cortez narrowly in front.
Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) ranked third in the same market at about 16%, the data showed. The figures represent odds being offered and traded by participants as the race begins to take shape, rather than any official nomination process.
Focus after announcement on egg freezing
Ocasio-Cortez’s position in the market came as she drew heightened attention this week following her decision to freeze her eggs. She has also posted updates about the process on her social media accounts, which, according to the report, drew mixed reactions.
That publicity has led to increased visibility for her among voters and observers, but it has not changed the underlying point that the prediction-market odds are based on traders’ expectations.
Different markets show different favourites
While Ocasio-Cortez held the lead on Polymarket, traders on Kalshi still ranked Newsom as the favourite. The two platforms are tracking sentiment in separate sets of trades, and the early odds therefore do not match across the markets.
The split underscores that prediction markets can vary depending on who is trading, the pricing mechanisms used, and how quickly new information is reflected in each platform’s odds.
The early numbers, regardless of which candidate leads on a given site, are not formal polling and should not be treated as a direct guide to who is more likely to ultimately seek the nomination. Prediction-market prices can change as campaigns, fundraising and public statements evolve over time.
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13 August 2026
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