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AOC Moves Ahead of Newsom for 2028 Presidential Nomination

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) has moved ahead of California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) in early prediction-market odds for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, according to data on Polymarket.

As of Wednesday, Ocasio-Cortez had an 18% chance of winning the Democratic nomination on Polymarket. Newsom was listed at 17%, leaving Ocasio-Cortez narrowly in front.

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) ranked third in the same market at about 16%, the data showed. The figures represent odds being offered and traded by participants as the race begins to take shape, rather than any official nomination process.

Focus after announcement on egg freezing

Ocasio-Cortez’s position in the market came as she drew heightened attention this week following her decision to freeze her eggs. She has also posted updates about the process on her social media accounts, which, according to the report, drew mixed reactions.

That publicity has led to increased visibility for her among voters and observers, but it has not changed the underlying point that the prediction-market odds are based on traders’ expectations.

Different markets show different favourites

While Ocasio-Cortez held the lead on Polymarket, traders on Kalshi still ranked Newsom as the favourite. The two platforms are tracking sentiment in separate sets of trades, and the early odds therefore do not match across the markets.

The split underscores that prediction markets can vary depending on who is trading, the pricing mechanisms used, and how quickly new information is reflected in each platform’s odds.

The early numbers, regardless of which candidate leads on a given site, are not formal polling and should not be treated as a direct guide to who is more likely to ultimately seek the nomination. Prediction-market prices can change as campaigns, fundraising and public statements evolve over time.

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13 August 2026

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SiSePuede419 Ruby Member

SiSePuede419

Advanced Member

C'mon.

Choosing who's going to win is easy!

Even a four year old can pick who is better looking.

Even a robot LLM with no eyes can do it. 🤖

AOC would probably be the more commonly perceived as attractive. Newsom has a more conventionally polished, model-like appearance.

HappyExpat57 Ruby Member

HappyExpat57

Advanced Member
(edited)

Heavy sigh, here we go again.

I comes down to actual electability. Harris had that "fingernails screeching down the chalkboard" laugh. AOC has that baby girl voice no one will take seriously. Bill Clinton won an election with the women's vote being an important facet. When asked why they voted for him, a large number of them said they thought he was cute.

Edited by HappyExpat57
speling

newbee2022 Star Member

newbee2022

Advanced Member
10 minutes ago, CM Dad said:

Sadly, Democrats have a habit of nominating unelectable candidates.

So, I reckon, nobody of those fulfill your requirements and expectations?

AOC and friend could give US a social face, first time in history

CallumWK Diamond Member

CallumWK

Advanced Member
Just now, Smokey and the Bandit said:

Please let AOC run for President, whoever runs for the GOP, JD or Rubio, will win!

Is your username based on the strong stuff you are smoking? Rhetorical question.

newbee2022 Star Member

newbee2022

Advanced Member
32 minutes ago, Cory1848 said:

would fully support AOC based on where she’d take the country

Shouldn't it be more important? Together with Newsom a winning team

spidermike007 Star Member

spidermike007

Advanced Member

Vance and Rubio are both such low end candidates, such empty suits, that if the Democrats put up anybody viable they will win. Vance is an especially unlikable character. He truly showed his lack of honor and dignity with that Zelensky meeting in the White House, that diminished his stock dramatically. I don't even think Trump likes him at this point.

However I don't think Harris, AOC, or Newsom are viable.

They need to Centrist ticket like Kelly/Beshear, or Kelly/Shapiro, a pair that people will take seriously.

ronnie50 Platinum Member

ronnie50

Advanced Member

I watched a very interesting doco on J.D. Vance filmed for DW. In his early years he was very likeable - but then he swung to the radical right.

AustinRacing Platinum Member

AustinRacing

Advanced Member

I have a feeling a few dark horses are kept in the background to be unleashed at an opportune time. Someone like Michelle Obama for example would get more votes from general public than those guys. Just saying.

Tug Star Member

Tug

Advanced Member
1 hour ago, Smokey and the Bandit said:

Please let AOC run for President, whoever runs for the GOP, JD or Rubio, will win!

Sorry to pop your wet dream it will probably end up being senator mark Kelley on account of trumps war and the nation wanting someone with integrity.doubt it’s going to be a woman this time around just look what our misogyny has done to us.the dems won’t make that mistake again.

novacova Star Member

novacova

Advanced Member
12 minutes ago, Tug said:

Site one trump has within the boundary’s of our constitution and laws.

Easy he issued and revoked security clearance among many others that you failed to understand, certainly a weak argumentative attempt on your part.

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