Elon Musk's SpaceX Nears $1.8tn Ahead of IPO

First of all, SpaceX, as it has evolved in recent months, is a very strange company. Because it is no longer just a company that builds rockets for businesses and states to send cargo into space, but a group that includes various companies. The rocket company is one. The company that has built a network of satellites to provide internet, Starlink, is a subsidiary. But the group also includes X (the old Twitter) and, of course, xAI, the artificial intelligence company that Musk created to compete with OpenAI and Anthropic. The creation of this strange group meant that the shareholders/financiers of all of these are now shareholders of SpaceX. The Saudis and Peter Thiel, who gave Elon Musk money to buy Twitter, will now collect hundreds of millions from the IPO of another company than the one they invested in. All of these companies have their own problems, but the main problem is that only one of them is profitable (Starlink). All the others are loss-making, with xAI even “burning” tens of billions a year. In the first quarter of 2026, the group lost $2.6 billion. If the stock goes public at the price they are asking, SpaceX’s valuation will reach $1.75 trillion. It will be one of the companies with the largest capitalization in the world. But it reports annual revenue of just $19 billion (mainly from government money for rocket launches, and Starlink revenue). A normal valuation for dynamic technology companies is a capitalization of 10-15 times annual revenue. SpaceX is asking for almost 100 times more. What is it basing that on?

On lies, of course.

A key characteristic of Elon Musk in his business activity is that he is a liar. There is no other way to put it. He lies all the time. He publicly claims things that are not true, conveys distorted or incorrect information and data and, most importantly, he constantly promises things (that he himself will do, that his companies will do) that never come true. The New York Times the other day did an examining over 600 promises and predictions that he had made publicly, finding that 81% were never realized. The man lies all the time. He does it, of course, on purpose. Because Tesla has a stock market valuation that is in no way justified by its financial results, Musk promises unrealistic developments in the future, from fleets of self-driving taxis to armies of AI robots, which of course are not based on anything. They exist only to convince investors that this company is more than just a car manufacturer, so that they don't sell and the stock falls. In a few cases, this has consequences, as business executives are not allowed to lie or promise publicly to manipulate a stock or create false expectations among investors. But that happens very rarely, and then Musk simply pays the fines. Usually no one questions him for the silly promises of self-driving, flying or underwater cars that never come, or for silly trips to Mars, underground highways and armies of autonomous robots.

So that's exactly what SpaceX is doing in its financial and forecast document ahead of its IPO. The company promises in its document that it will dominate space, telecommunications, and artificial intelligence, claiming a share of a market it estimates at $28.5 trillion. It promises to build data centers in space ("starting in 2028", LOL) and a permanent base on Mars. None of this is based on anything real and solid. Even the comparatively more down-to-earth promises for the rapid development of the already profitable Starlink depend on the flawless, mass operation of hundreds of giant Starship rockets. For now, they've been trying to get one test flight to fly without exploding for years (unsuccessfully so far).

Buying SpaceX stock at the asking price when it goes public means you believe that these promises will come true.

Time to dust off that standard begging letter

again I think!

The one that recommends my ex wife as an

Ideal candidate for a trip to Mars !^

i do not touch this one!... the IPO invites 30% retail investors...YOU the 30% are getting dumped on by the pre-IPO investors...thats why they graciously give you "the chance"

btw. as the bubble gets closer to "pooooffff" the number of IPO's will explode..everyone and their dog wants to cash in..and YOU are the set target

22 minutes ago, Zapitapi said:

i do not touch this one!... the IPO invites 30% retail investors...YOU the 30% are getting dumped on by the pre-IPO investors...thats why they graciously give you "the chance"

btw. as the bubble gets closer to "pooooffff" the number of IPO's will explode..everyone and their dog wants to cash in..and YOU are the set target

The cynics at major Wall Street firms used to have a saying:

"Some people are meant to be retail".

It should be a wild day, with massive price moves, and with Musk "making" hundreds of billions.

It seems fitting that a rather odd fellow suffering Aspergers and a ketamine habit, who wields chainsaws celebrating the unemployment of others, and who slashed USAid, which has resulted in an untold number of child deaths, should be the world's first Trillionaire.

When the history of this bull market is written, today may well figure prominently.

Great to hear Mr Musk doing so well.

Looks like the purchase of X didn't ruin him after all. 😀

Saving free speech AND making bank. Legend.