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Iran War Starts Shaping US Midterm Race

The war involving Iran, which Donald Trump initially said would be short, has run past the six-month mark and is beginning to shape the mood ahead of November’s midterm elections, particularly in closely fought House and Senate races.

Mike Gibbons, a 33-year-old restaurant server in eastern Pennsylvania, said he is considering voting for Democrats for the first time since he sat out the 2020 presidential election. Two years ago, he said he struggled with supporting Republican Donald Trump and felt Democrats did not take a harder line on Israel’s war in Gaza. This year, as the Iran conflict continues and fuel prices rise, he is more focused on day-to-day costs than foreign policy.

Gibbons said the price of petrol is about $1 per gallon higher than last year, and that higher transport costs feed into prices for other essentials even though his wages have not increased. He plans to vote for any Democratic candidate he can, adding that the impact of the war is being felt locally.

War Expected To End Quickly Now Drags On

Trump’s early messaging that the conflict would last only weeks has been overtaken by events. The longer duration has undermined a campaign line that sought to keep attention away from foreign entanglements and has also put pressure on Republicans who would prefer to concentrate on domestic issues, including tax cuts, while they hold narrow majorities in Congress.

In voter interviews, people described how the war’s economic spillover is competing with other political concerns. While Trump supporters appear largely unmoved, the combination of unpopularity around the war and higher costs could influence results in districts where margins are small.

One example is Bethlehem in eastern Pennsylvania, where Republican Representative Ryan Mackenzie is among the party’s most vulnerable incumbents heading into the midterms.

Public Doubts Widen Beyond Partisan Lines

Nationwide polling shows broad scepticism. About two-thirds of US adults say the Iran war has not been worth fighting, according to a July survey by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. The view spans most Democrats and independents and also includes more than a third of Republicans.

Trump has continued to defend the conflict’s direction while rejecting the idea that Americans should focus on its costs. He has said he would “never apologise” for higher prices linked to the war and argued that the administration acted to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. This week, his government announced additional sanctions aimed at further isolating Tehran.

The administration has also relied on actions abroad rather than building sustained public support at home. The article notes that, unlike George W. Bush’s pre-war approach for Iraq, Trump did not spend an extended period laying out a coalition or arguing publicly for the likelihood of a long campaign.

Republicans Split Quietly As Democrats Try To Reframe It

Within Congress, Republican support has shifted from enthusiasm for Trump’s Iran moves to more frequent worry about the toll. Even so, the party has largely stayed united against measures that would limit the president’s war powers. Leaders have also shown little appetite for cutting off funding for the conflict, while seeking to portray Democrats as unable to manage the economy and national security.

Democrats see an opportunity to reset blame on Republicans. As part of Sherrod Brown’s comeback bid for the US Senate in Ohio, he released an advertisement filmed at a gas station portraying fuel prices as a burden on households. In western Maryland, Democratic Senator Angela Alsobrooks similarly pointed to higher prices as a consequence of the war and urged Democrats to keep attention on what she frames as Trump’s leadership record.

But there is also a risk for Democrats: some voters remain willing to adjust to higher costs without attributing them to Republican leaders, while others do not want Democrats to regain power. In North Carolina, for instance, a farm owner said she trusts Trump and argued that opposition figures would not be campaigning against him without broader reasons. In Iowa, a Republican said gas prices are part of the economic “nature of the beast” and backed keeping Republicans in control.

Other voters offered a more mixed picture. In Bakersfield, California, a fast-food worker described gas costs as adding to financial pressure and said he planned to support a Democrat’s challenge. An older retiree said she was surprised by a recent rise at the pump and emphasised the need to manage household budgets. In Arizona, a retired electronics salesman said he had expected the conflict to end sooner and suggested that any later impact could come through sanctions. In Virginia, a 26-year-old said rising fuel costs and concerns about the ability to retire have not yet resolved his choice between parties.

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27 August 2026

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Tug Star Member

Tug

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2 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Losing? Blue water navy sunk, air force basically totally destroyed, radars destroyed, missile and drone manufacturing capability massively depleted, the regime economy is collapsing and now the Strait has been demined and the US is in control of it. Which part of this is shows the Islamist regime is winning?

Unfortunately they have won geographically in their ability to indirect shipping in the region even with crude methods.they have won in their ability to influence world opinion.they have won in their recruiting process as trump has provided them with a rallying cry…..bombing a country tends to do that……if there is a bright spot in this mess it’s the exposure of trumps incompetence in a strong enough way to penetrate the trump propaganda machine.Don’t conflate my opinion with support for Iran I don’t…..if one wanted to truly prevail in this endeavor they would have to enlist their allies before hand…..trump has driven ours away…..you go ahead and carry water for the guy personally I’d like to see the end of this administration so we can start rebuilding our bridges.enough is enough!

newnative Diamond Member

newnative

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8 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Losing? Blue water navy sunk, air force basically totally destroyed, radars destroyed, missile and drone manufacturing capability massively depleted, the regime economy is collapsing and now the Strait has been demined and the US is in control of it. Which part of this is shows the Islamist regime is winning?

Wow, that's an impressive list--but I don't see anything about Iran's capability to make a nuclear weapon destroyed. If we're keeping score, Trump said the capability was destroyed, then, later, said sorry, no, it's not destroyed. Then, I think it was destroyed again and now we seem to be back to not destroyed, according to Google. So, how exactly is the US winning, if the main mission, the main reason Trump always gives for going to war, wasn't accomplished?

Back to the thread, I certainly hope the very costly, hasty, and ill-thought war will get Democrats and Independents to the polls in a non-presidential election year.

dinsdale Star Member

dinsdale

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59 minutes ago, farang51 said:

I don't understand, if the US is in control of the strait, then why is shipping through it not back to normal?

It will take a long time to get back to where it was before this kicked off.

There's still the threat of missiles and drones but there's also A LOT of protection in the region. What's needed is the shipping companies to have confidence to transit through although as pointed out in this CENTCOM announcement ships are already getting through, though this was a southern route with ships going through dark. Will tankers and cargo vessels start using the international shipping lanes I guess is the question.

dinsdale Star Member

dinsdale

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56 minutes ago, newnative said:

Wow, that's an impressive list--but I don't see anything about Iran's capability to make a nuclear weapon destroyed. If we're keeping score, Trump said the capability was destroyed, then, later, said sorry, no, it's not destroyed. Then, I think it was destroyed again and now we seem to be back to not destroyed, according to Google. So, how exactly is the US winning, if the main mission, the main reason Trump always gives for going to war, wasn't accomplished?

Back to the thread, I certainly hope the very costly, hasty, and ill-thought war will get Democrats and Independents to the polls in a non-presidential election year.

There's a continual watch on the sites. Do you actually think they are still enriching?

Schoggibueb Gold Member

Schoggibueb

Advanced Member
1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

What's needed is the shipping companies to have confidence to transit through...

So that confidence was BEFORE the 47th started messing around. Costed only a few billion - who cares - emmm, maybe some taxpayers.

BEFORE the straight of Hormuz was open. For all ships from every country.

As a owner of a cargo ship anykind - is it now better? No and no again.

Is it the same? No and no again.

Did prices go up for the ship owner? Yes.

Did transportation costs in general go up? Yes.

Did prices go up to get your vehicle filled with gas? Definitley Yes.

The confidence ended with the 47th's actions. It's his mess. And he has the oppinion, that others will clean it up.

But "he" loves inflation - so it gotta be great.

dinsdale Star Member

dinsdale

Advanced Member
2 minutes ago, Schoggibueb said:

BEFORE the straight of Hormuz was open. For all ships from every country

Before The fundamentalists were well on their way to having nukes and ICBMs to strap them to. Do you think if they got nukes the Strait would remain an international corridor of transit for shipping?

Enoon Platinum Member

Enoon

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1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

It will take a long time to get back to where it was before this kicked off.

There's still the threat of missiles and drones but there's also A LOT of protection in the region. What's needed is the shipping companies to have confidence to transit through although as pointed out in this CENTCOM announcement ships are already getting through, though this was a southern route with ships going through dark. Will tankers and cargo vessels start using the international shipping lanes I guess is the question.

It's not going to get back to "normal" you silly ****.

Whatever "normal" was has gone for good........thanks to the silly **** in the White House.

That's what he does........he ***** thing up.

He is the master of ******* things up.

****heads love him.

Tug Star Member

Tug

Advanced Member
1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

There's a continual watch on the sites. Do you actually think they are still enriching?

Jee I dono perhaps you could ask little Kim of N Korea remember trump says they fell in love with each other……now little Kim is just a pumping those nukes like hotcakes…..I’m curious what’s your read on that?

dinsdale Star Member

dinsdale

Advanced Member
(edited)
19 minutes ago, Enoon said:

It's not going to get back to "normal" you silly ****.

Whatever "normal" was has gone for good........thanks to the silly **** in the White House.

Pre-war 20 million BPD was coming out of the strait. Now it seems somewhere between 2-10 million BPD and this is using the southern route, going dark and hugging the coast of Oman under US escort. Let's see what happens in the coming weeks as to whether or not tankers will start using the centre lanes. If they do the BPD number will gradually crank up. Will it be the same as pre-war. That all depends on what the Islamic regime/IRGC does. If the naval blockade is lifted and Iranian oil is allowed to come out again then it should come back up to around pre-war levels. It will just take time.

Edited by dinsdale

dinsdale Star Member

dinsdale

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12 minutes ago, Tug said:

Jee I dono perhaps you could ask little Kim of N Korea remember trump says they fell in love with each other……now little Kim is just a pumping those nukes like hotcakes…..I’m curious what’s your read on that?

Nth Korea is being held in check by China.

Tug Star Member

Tug

Advanced Member
1 minute ago, dinsdale said:

Nth Korea is being held in check by China.

Sooo pumping out nukes like hotcakes is being held in check…….got it….

NanLaew Star Member

NanLaew

Advanced Member
3 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Losing? Blue water navy sunk, air force basically totally destroyed, radars destroyed, missile and drone manufacturing capability massively depleted, the regime economy is collapsing and now the Strait has been demined and the US is in control of it. Which part of this is shows the Islamist regime is winning?

This does.

Maximum Pressure on Iran Will Fail

Trump’s War Has Brought American Strategy to a Dead End

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/maximum-pressure-iran-will-fail

Before one shoots the author...NATE SWANSON is a Resident Senior Fellow and Director of the Iran Strategy Project at the Atlantic Council. He served as Director for Iran at the National Security Council from 2022 to 2025. In the spring and summer of 2025, he served on the Trump administration’s Iran negotiating team.

NanLaew Star Member

NanLaew

Advanced Member
20 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

That all depends on what the Islamic regime/IRGC does. If the naval blockade is lifted and Iranian oil is allowed to come out again then it should come back up to around pre-war levels. It will just take time.

Yes, it will just take time for things to return to normal...with Iran's nuclear capability still in place, just like it was almost exactly six months ago.

dinsdale Star Member

dinsdale

Advanced Member
28 minutes ago, Tug said:

Sooo pumping out nukes like hotcakes is being held in check…….got it….

Have they used any?

farang51 Gold Member

farang51

Advanced Member
3 hours ago, dinsdale said:

It will take a long time to get back to where it was before this kicked off.

There's still the threat of missiles and drones but there's also A LOT of protection in the region. What's needed is the shipping companies to have confidence to transit through although as pointed out in this CENTCOM announcement ships are already getting through, though this was a southern route with ships going through dark. Will tankers and cargo vessels start using the international shipping lanes I guess is the question.

In other words: The US is NOT in control of the strait.

dinsdale Star Member

dinsdale

Advanced Member
1 minute ago, farang51 said:

In other words: The US is NOT in control of the strait.

We'll see. Coastal launchers and radars have pretty much been taken out of the picture which means launches will need to come from inland. Hard to call what the IRGC will do but "an October Surprise" just before the mid-terms is being commented on. Which ever way the mid-terms go doesn't bother Trump as far as the Republic of Iran goes. He doesn't need conformation from Congress and he'll unleash the IDF. The regime will pay a heavy price.

farang51 Gold Member

farang51

Advanced Member
11 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

We'll see. Coastal launchers and radars have pretty much been taken out of the picture which means launches will need to come from inland. Hard to call what the IRGC will do but "an October Surprise" just before the mid-terms is being commented on. Which ever way the mid-terms go doesn't bother Trump as far as the Republic of Iran goes. He doesn't need conformation from Congress and he'll unleash the IDF. The regime will pay a heavy price.

You keep saying how much the US has destroyed, that is irrelevant for who controls the strait. The thing to look at is whether the ships move freely through the strait as they used to do.

The US may control the strait sometime in the future, or Iran/Oman may control the strait sometime in the future, we have to wait to see what happens. But today, the US surely does not control the strait.

blaze master Diamond Member

blaze master

Advanced Member
2 hours ago, MIke B Bad said:

image.png

Obama never said that. The quote comes from Owen shroyer.

OneManShow Silver Member

OneManShow

Advanced Member
1 hour ago, blaze master said:

Obama never said that. The quote comes from Owen shroyer.

That’s right

Obama only sent billions of dollars cash to make IR happy 😁🫣

HolmesEquivelant Silver Member

HolmesEquivelant

Advanced Member
11 hours ago, newbee2022 said:

Trump is defeated already ❤️

How is he defeated? Appears you and Iran have the same source.

IMG_2858.jpeg

Roadsternut Gold Member

Roadsternut

Advanced Member
3 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Have they used any?

They might sell some.

Roadsternut Gold Member

Roadsternut

Advanced Member
3 hours ago, farang51 said:

You keep saying how much the US has destroyed, that is irrelevant for who controls the strait. The thing to look at is whether the ships move freely through the strait as they used to do.

The US may control the strait sometime in the future, or Iran/Oman may control the strait sometime in the future, we have to wait to see what happens. But today, the US surely does not control the strait.

The decision whether to proceed through the straits depends on:

  1. The Insurers. The Insurers may provide War Cover, but the rate may render the passage uneconomic. Not everything that passes through is a tanker. The UAE has large ports where cargos are unloaded, split, reloaded for shipment to East Africa. Some Insurers will refuse to provide cover, making the decision moot.

  2. Obviously the ship owner has a role, but he is guided by the availability of insurance and the policy of the Flag State

  3. Flag states may prohibit, restrict, warn. India has banned all Indian seafarers from transecting the Straits. The United States has warned all US flagged vessels to stay clear of the area; that effectively means a ban, because its unlikely an insurer will issue cover against country advice. Its the same as with tourist travel insurance; you probably won't get travel insurance cover right now going to Iran. Australia, UK, Germany and France have issued warnings but not precautions. About 1 in 10 seafarers are Indian, but Indians have a disproportionate presence in international shipping especially on bulk carriers and tankers. Moreover, about 60% of vessels normally plying the Straits will have at least one India bridge officer. As they are bridge officers, while not impossible, it is a bit harder to find replacements.

So the decision to proceed is complex, a combination of economic and political will.

farang51 Gold Member

farang51

Advanced Member
11 minutes ago, Roadsternut said:

The decision whether to proceed through the straits depends on:

...

So the decision to proceed is complex, a combination of economic and political will.

Indeed; however, if the US controlled the strait it wouldn't be a hard decision to make. It is getting a little tiresome to see people like dinsdale blindly repeat the talking points from Trump and his top people even when the talking points clearly is contrary to reality.

dinsdale Star Member

dinsdale

Advanced Member
(edited)
3 hours ago, farang51 said:

Indeed; however, if the US controlled the strait it wouldn't be a hard decision to make. It is getting a little tiresome to see people like dinsdale blindly repeat the talking points from Trump and his top people even when the talking points clearly is contrary to reality.

The Strait being demined is NOT a talking point from Trump. It's a matter of fact announced by CENTCOM. I have previously stated that we'll have to wait and see if shipping companies will start using the central corridor which is international waters. Are you disappointed that there is now a possibility that more oil might start flowing out of the Strait.

Goldman Says Gulf Oil Exports at 2/3 of Pre-War Level

by Bloomberg

|

Yongchang Chin

 | Friday, August 28, 2026 | 10:00 AM EST

Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels, limiting the Iran war’s impact on global crude prices, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/goldman_says_gulf_oil_exports_at_23_of_prewar_level-28-aug-2026-184483-article/

If the shipping companies start using the egress and ingress lanes this number will only go up. Surely this is good news for all but the irrational Trump haters and the fundamentalists running Iran.

Edited by dinsdale

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