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Iran War Starts Shaping US Midterm Race

The war involving Iran, which Donald Trump initially said would be short, has run past the six-month mark and is beginning to shape the mood ahead of November’s midterm elections, particularly in closely fought House and Senate races.

Mike Gibbons, a 33-year-old restaurant server in eastern Pennsylvania, said he is considering voting for Democrats for the first time since he sat out the 2020 presidential election. Two years ago, he said he struggled with supporting Republican Donald Trump and felt Democrats did not take a harder line on Israel’s war in Gaza. This year, as the Iran conflict continues and fuel prices rise, he is more focused on day-to-day costs than foreign policy.

Gibbons said the price of petrol is about $1 per gallon higher than last year, and that higher transport costs feed into prices for other essentials even though his wages have not increased. He plans to vote for any Democratic candidate he can, adding that the impact of the war is being felt locally.

War Expected To End Quickly Now Drags On

Trump’s early messaging that the conflict would last only weeks has been overtaken by events. The longer duration has undermined a campaign line that sought to keep attention away from foreign entanglements and has also put pressure on Republicans who would prefer to concentrate on domestic issues, including tax cuts, while they hold narrow majorities in Congress.

In voter interviews, people described how the war’s economic spillover is competing with other political concerns. While Trump supporters appear largely unmoved, the combination of unpopularity around the war and higher costs could influence results in districts where margins are small.

One example is Bethlehem in eastern Pennsylvania, where Republican Representative Ryan Mackenzie is among the party’s most vulnerable incumbents heading into the midterms.

Public Doubts Widen Beyond Partisan Lines

Nationwide polling shows broad scepticism. About two-thirds of US adults say the Iran war has not been worth fighting, according to a July survey by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. The view spans most Democrats and independents and also includes more than a third of Republicans.

Trump has continued to defend the conflict’s direction while rejecting the idea that Americans should focus on its costs. He has said he would “never apologise” for higher prices linked to the war and argued that the administration acted to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. This week, his government announced additional sanctions aimed at further isolating Tehran.

The administration has also relied on actions abroad rather than building sustained public support at home. The article notes that, unlike George W. Bush’s pre-war approach for Iraq, Trump did not spend an extended period laying out a coalition or arguing publicly for the likelihood of a long campaign.

Republicans Split Quietly As Democrats Try To Reframe It

Within Congress, Republican support has shifted from enthusiasm for Trump’s Iran moves to more frequent worry about the toll. Even so, the party has largely stayed united against measures that would limit the president’s war powers. Leaders have also shown little appetite for cutting off funding for the conflict, while seeking to portray Democrats as unable to manage the economy and national security.

Democrats see an opportunity to reset blame on Republicans. As part of Sherrod Brown’s comeback bid for the US Senate in Ohio, he released an advertisement filmed at a gas station portraying fuel prices as a burden on households. In western Maryland, Democratic Senator Angela Alsobrooks similarly pointed to higher prices as a consequence of the war and urged Democrats to keep attention on what she frames as Trump’s leadership record.

But there is also a risk for Democrats: some voters remain willing to adjust to higher costs without attributing them to Republican leaders, while others do not want Democrats to regain power. In North Carolina, for instance, a farm owner said she trusts Trump and argued that opposition figures would not be campaigning against him without broader reasons. In Iowa, a Republican said gas prices are part of the economic “nature of the beast” and backed keeping Republicans in control.

Other voters offered a more mixed picture. In Bakersfield, California, a fast-food worker described gas costs as adding to financial pressure and said he planned to support a Democrat’s challenge. An older retiree said she was surprised by a recent rise at the pump and emphasised the need to manage household budgets. In Arizona, a retired electronics salesman said he had expected the conflict to end sooner and suggested that any later impact could come through sanctions. In Virginia, a 26-year-old said rising fuel costs and concerns about the ability to retire have not yet resolved his choice between parties.

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27 August 2026

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farang51 Gold Member

farang51

Advanced Member

Control of the strait is not depending on mines. Trump has for more than 14 days repeatedly said the US controls the strait - if that was the case, export through the strait would be back to normal by now, which it is not.

The 2/3 level of export mentioned in that article is the total export from the area, not of what goes through the strait.

dinsdale Star Member

dinsdale

Advanced Member
1 hour ago, farang51 said:

The 2/3 level of export mentioned in that article is the total export from the area, not of what goes through the strait.

Total exports of crude and oil products from the region have risen to 15 million to 16 million barrels a day, helped by higher crossings through the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman analysts including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said in a note. That’s still 7 to 8 million barrels below pre-conflict levels, but well above a trough of 5 million to 6 million barrels a day in March, they said.

Oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz alone are likely close to US officials’ 8 million to 10 million barrel a day estimates, the analysts said.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/goldman_says_gulf_oil_exports_at_23_of_prewar_level-28-aug-2026-184483-article/

newnative Diamond Member

newnative

Advanced Member
14 hours ago, dinsdale said:

There's a continual watch on the sites. Do you actually think they are still enriching?

AI says it's paused but Iran still possesses massive amounts that have already been enriched. So, Trump's purpose for going to war has not been achieved.

dinsdale Star Member

dinsdale

Advanced Member
(edited)
29 minutes ago, MIke B Bad said:

And prior to Trump ripping up the nuclear deal, Iran had nothing refined beyond 3% and 'only' 300kg.

All enrichment has taken place since the deal was ripped up for the sole reason Obama's name was attached to it.

That was only what they were showing. Inspectors were denied access from some sites and was what was happening under the mountains even known about?

Edited by dinsdale

SiSePuede419 Ruby Member

SiSePuede419

Advanced Member

I hope General Natalie can win this war against the Russian hussies 😎

MIke B Bad Gold Member

MIke B Bad

Advanced Member
1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

That was only what they were showing. Inspectors were denied access from some sites and was what was happening under the mountains even known about?

During the Obama-era implementation period, the IAEA issued over a dozen reports stating Iran was meeting its JCPOA nuclear obligations — enrichment caps, stockpile limits, centrifuge restrictions, and access provisions.

These findings were based on:

  • continuous surveillance cameras

  • online enrichment monitors

  • daily inspector access at Natanz and Fordow

  • environmental sampling

  • Additional Protocol short-notice inspections

The IAEA described this as the most intrusive inspection regime ever negotiated.

And Trump's alternative?......no deal, just do what ever you want....pure genius.

connda Star Member

connda

Advanced Member

I supported Trump, although I did not vote for him, when he first took office. He lost me when it became obvious that he was not going to honor his campaign promises including promises to stay out of the foreign wars which he aggressively started. I like neither party, but I'm now going to vote a straight Democrat ticket with the hopes that the Democrat House and Senate will convict and remove the utterly insane US President, Donald J. Trump. Then in 2028 I'm going back to voting third parties and independents for no other reason than to exercise my voting rights.

dinsdale Star Member

dinsdale

Advanced Member
24 minutes ago, MIke B Bad said:

During the Obama-era implementation period, the IAEA issued over a dozen reports stating Iran was meeting its JCPOA nuclear obligations

Correct. In this agreement it was acknowledged that some areas were no access areas. As for Fordow that place was massive. I would think, and yes this is just my opinion, that things may well have been hidden away from prying eyes.

connda Star Member

connda

Advanced Member
2 hours ago, MIke B Bad said:

And prior to Trump ripping up the nuclear deal, Iran had nothing refined beyond 3% and 'only' 300kg.

All enrichment has taken place since the deal was ripped up for the sole reason Obama's name was attached to it.

But every Trump supporters and the sycophants around him will tell you with a straight face that "The JCPOA under Obama was a path directly to Iran developing a nuclear bomb which Iran would immediately use on Israel."

The sheer amount of propaganda and outright lies coming out of the various Trump Administration departments is a testament to the effectiveness of Joseph Goebbels-like propaganda and misinformation on average low-information citizens. The JCPOA worked, but Trump needed a casus belli to invade Iran, so he dismantled the treaty and then cranked up the Netanyahu "Iran is two weeks from a nuclear bomb (for the last thirty years)" propaganda in order to justify his attempt to overthrow Iran and take their oil and natural resources.

MIke B Bad Gold Member

MIke B Bad

Advanced Member
18 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Correct. In this agreement it was acknowledged that some areas were no access areas. As for Fordow that place was massive. I would think, and yes this is just my opinion, that things may well have been hidden away from prying eyes.

So the solution was no inspections?

heybruce Star Member

heybruce

Advanced Member
On 8/29/2026 at 6:21 AM, dinsdale said:

It will take a long time to get back to where it was before this kicked off.

There's still the threat of missiles and drones but there's also A LOT of protection in the region. What's needed is the shipping companies to have confidence to transit through although as pointed out in this CENTCOM announcement ships are already getting through, though this was a southern route with ships going through dark. Will tankers and cargo vessels start using the international shipping lanes I guess is the question.

So what is needed is for huge ships that are filled with huge quantities of flammables and present huge targets to ignore the threat of missiles and drones. Gee, I wonder why ship captains and shipping companies aren't doing that.

heybruce Star Member

heybruce

Advanced Member
On 8/29/2026 at 7:44 AM, dinsdale said:

Before The fundamentalists were well on their way to having nukes and ICBMs to strap them to. Do you think if they got nukes the Strait would remain an international corridor of transit for shipping?

So Trump was lying when he said Iran's nuclear program was obliterated last summer.

heybruce Star Member

heybruce

Advanced Member
On 8/29/2026 at 6:24 AM, dinsdale said:

There's a continual watch on the sites. Do you actually think they are still enriching?

So we stay at war forever and Iran won't be able to enrich. Is that your argument?

heybruce Star Member

heybruce

Advanced Member
On 8/29/2026 at 8:51 AM, NanLaew said:

Yes, it will just take time for things to return to normal...with Iran's nuclear capability still in place, just like it was almost exactly six months ago.

One big difference: Iran now knows it can shut down the Strain of Hormuz, hurt the world economy and strangle the Gulf allies of the US. Perhaps I should say "former allies".

heybruce Star Member

heybruce

Advanced Member
On 8/29/2026 at 11:40 AM, HolmesEquivelant said:

How is he defeated? Appears you and Iran have the same source.

IMG_2858.jpeg

Iran thinks it's winning because the regime has survived and has the population under control and the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut to any traffic it doesn't want to let through.

heybruce Star Member

heybruce

Advanced Member
23 hours ago, connda said:

I supported Trump, although I did not vote for him, when he first took office. He lost me when it became obvious that he was not going to honor his campaign promises including promises to stay out of the foreign wars which he aggressively started. I like neither party, but I'm now going to vote a straight Democrat ticket with the hopes that the Democrat House and Senate will convict and remove the utterly insane US President, Donald J. Trump. Then in 2028 I'm going back to voting third parties and independents for no other reason than to exercise my voting rights.

Not a bad plan. Rank Choice Voting would allow you to vote for independents and third party candidates while still reserving a safety vote for the least bad of the two big parties, but the two big parties will fight to keep that from happening.

NanLaew Star Member

NanLaew

Advanced Member
6 minutes ago, heybruce said:

Iran thinks it's winning because the regime has survived and has the population under control and the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut to any traffic it doesn't want to let through.

Iran MAGA thinks it's winning because despite the regime has survived surviving and has the with their population under control and the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut to any traffic it doesn't want to let through.

NanLaew Star Member

NanLaew

Advanced Member
(edited)
On 8/30/2026 at 6:36 AM, dinsdale said:

Total exports of crude and oil products from the region have risen to 15 million to 16 million barrels a day, helped by higher crossings through the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman analysts including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said in a note. That’s still 7 to 8 million barrels below pre-conflict levels, but well above a trough of 5 million to 6 million barrels a day in March, they said.

Oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz alone are likely close to US officials’ 8 million to 10 million barrel a day estimates, the analysts said.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/goldman_says_gulf_oil_exports_at_23_of_prewar_level-28-aug-2026-184483-article/

Pre-war exports via Hormuz were approximately double what they are at present.

After 6 months of on-again, off-again war, cease-fires and about US$37 billion spaffed up against the wall, Iran still has the 'nuclear dust', refining capability and the Iranian regime is still in power.

Edited by NanLaew

HolmesEquivelant Silver Member

HolmesEquivelant

Advanced Member
29 minutes ago, heybruce said:

Iran thinks it's winning because the regime has survived and has the population under control and the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut to any traffic it doesn't want to let through.

It’s ain’t over yet. I hope the best is yet to come.

Shock and awe.

heybruce Star Member

heybruce

Advanced Member
2 hours ago, HolmesEquivelant said:

It’s ain’t over yet. I hope the best is yet to come.

Shock and awe.

We have hit them with a lot of "Shock and awe" and the regime is still standing, while we've run down a significant portion of our most expensive and difficult to replace munitions. A blockade of Iran may eventually work, but that requires leaving a significant part of our navy dedicated to the effort. It is much cheaper for Iran to wait us out. Meanwhile our budget deficit keeps growing and China ponders the possibilities for mischief while we're bogged down in the Middle East.

Trump dug us into a hole and there is no good way out.

HolmesEquivelant Silver Member

HolmesEquivelant

Advanced Member
21 hours ago, heybruce said:

We have hit them with a lot of "Shock and awe" and the regime is still standing, while we've run down a significant portion of our most expensive and difficult to replace munitions. A blockade of Iran may eventually work, but that requires leaving a significant part of our navy dedicated to the effort. It is much cheaper for Iran to wait us out. Meanwhile our budget deficit keeps growing and China ponders the possibilities for mischief while we're bogged down in the Middle East.

Trump dug us into a hole and there is no good way out.

What was it about my post “it ain’t over yet “ confused you the most?

The “it” or the “ain’t” or the “over” of the “yet”???

heybruce Star Member

heybruce

Advanced Member
4 hours ago, HolmesEquivelant said:

What was it about my post “it ain’t over yet “ confused you the most?

The “it” or the “ain’t” or the “over” of the “yet”???

I understood. Quagmires last a long time. What was it about my post that you didn't understand?

HolmesEquivelant Silver Member

HolmesEquivelant

Advanced Member
8 hours ago, heybruce said:

I understood. Quagmires last a long time. What was it about my post that you didn't understand?

I already used that statement. Try to be original and quit deflecting when you have no legitimate reply.

heybruce Star Member

heybruce

Advanced Member
9 hours ago, HolmesEquivelant said:

I already used that statement. Try to be original and quit deflecting when you have no legitimate reply.

That wasn't an original statement on your part. It's quite old. I'm not deflecting, you're running from my response. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to repost it:

"We have hit them with a lot of "Shock and awe" and the regime is still standing, while we've run down a significant portion of our most expensive and difficult to replace munitions. A blockade of Iran may eventually work, but that requires leaving a significant part of our navy dedicated to the effort. It is much cheaper for Iran to wait us out. Meanwhile our budget deficit keeps growing and China ponders the possibilities for mischief while we're bogged down in the Middle East."

"Trump dug us into a hole and there is no good way out."

BTW: Did you know that Putin has declared support for Iran? No surprise, he's already provided them with intelligence. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/09/01/putin-pledges-support-iran-rallies-leaders-challenge-us/

SiSePuede419 Ruby Member

SiSePuede419

Advanced Member

War? What war?

We won on the first day, in the first hour.

Pay no attention to those bombs exploding over your heads, Boys.

Commander Runs-away-from-Combat is looking out for #1🤣

file_00000000265881fba02d0698cbc1b102.png

HolmesEquivelant Silver Member

HolmesEquivelant

Advanced Member
(edited)
1 hour ago, heybruce said:

That wasn't an original statement on your part. It's quite old. I'm not deflecting, you're running from my response. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to repost it:

"We have hit them with a lot of "Shock and awe" and the regime is still standing, while we've run down a significant portion of our most expensive and difficult to replace munitions. A blockade of Iran may eventually work, but that requires leaving a significant part of our navy dedicated to the effort. It is much cheaper for Iran to wait us out. Meanwhile our budget deficit keeps growing and China ponders the possibilities for mischief while we're bogged down in the Middle East."

"Trump dug us into a hole and there is no good way out."

BTW: Did you know that Putin has declared support for Iran? No surprise, he's already provided them with intelligence. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/09/01/putin-pledges-support-iran-rallies-leaders-challenge-us/

I’ve said this before and obviously it needs repeating.

“It ain’t over yet “

Maybe, just maybe it will comprehend this time.

But then, maybe not!

Edited by HolmesEquivelant

heybruce Star Member

heybruce

Advanced Member
3 hours ago, HolmesEquivelant said:

I’ve said this before and obviously it needs repeating.

“It ain’t over yet “

Maybe, just maybe it will comprehend this time.

But then, maybe not!

I comprehend. You think a miracle will happen, like when Trump ended the Russian-Ukraine war in 24 hrs (did that happen?).

I'm pointing out that there is no quick way out other than to declare victory, go home, and pretend that Iran is not in a stronger position than it was before the war.

It is much more likely that Trump will keep the region in military limbo, at great expense to the US, until the end of his term. After he is out of office he will claim everything was under control when he was in office. People like you will believe him from start to finish.

All the while the US will go deeper into debt, our munition stockpiles will be drained faster than they can be replenished, and respect and trust will be lowered further than their current low.

worgeordie Star Member

worgeordie

Advanced Member

As November gets closer everyday , Trump is going to resort to dirty tricks ,and even

more lies , as he knows that the majority of Americans are not happy at all about the

way he has ran the country, the only Golden age is in the oval office ,all over the walls,

He tried calling the Democrats' ...Communists as that's all he has ,he cannot say your

life is better ,because you are not a Billionaire ,he cannot say no more wars, that prices

for groceries are down ,and most importantly this is all his fault ,he said in an interview

people are angry at Republicans BUT not a me ,,,it's all your fault Donald , he is such a

Narcissist he cannot see it ,

regards Worgeordie

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