President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to its lowest level of his second term, according to political analyst Nate Silver, as the continuing war with Iran and rising fuel prices weigh on public opinion.
Silver said on Thursday that the timing of Trump's declining approval closely matched the recent increase in petrol prices and the resumption of hostilities with Iran.
"The timing lines up remarkably well with gas prices and the resumption of hostilities in Iran," he wrote on X.
Support declines as Iran war and fuel prices dominate concerns
The conflict, now approaching its sixth month, has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime route that carries around 20% of the world's oil supply. The disruption has contributed to higher global energy costs, with the average price of a gallon of petrol in the United States reaching about $4.11 on Friday, up from roughly $3.15 a year earlier.
Polls Show Growing Disapproval
Two major polls released this week also indicate declining public support for Trump, particularly over his handling of the conflict in the Middle East.
A Quinnipiac University poll published on Tuesday found that 58% of registered voters disapproved of the president's job performance, while 32% approved. The survey marked Trump's lowest approval rating recorded by Quinnipiac across both of his terms in office.
An AP-NORC poll released on Wednesday similarly placed Trump's approval rating at 33%, down four percentage points from its previous survey. It was also the lowest level recorded by the polling organisation since Trump's return to the White House.
According to Decision Desk HQ's polling average on Friday, Trump's overall approval rating stood at 40.6%, while his average disapproval rating was 57.5%.
Economic Pressure Mounts
The prolonged conflict has also increased pressure on the US economy, with higher oil prices contributing to rising inflation and growing concerns over the cost of living ahead of the midterm elections.
Higher fuel costs have become a visible consequence of the fighting, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to affect global oil markets.
Opposition to the War Increases
The Quinnipiac survey found that 60% of US voters opposed the war, the highest level of opposition since the conflict began on 28 February. Nearly three-quarters of respondents also said they did not support sending US troops to Iran.
The AP-NORC poll reached similar conclusions, with 64% of Americans saying the war had not been worthwhile. That view was shared by 87% of Democrats, 68% of independents and 37% of Republicans.
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2 August 2026
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