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ExpatOilWorker

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Posts posted by ExpatOilWorker

  1. 7 hours ago, bristolboy said:

    Interesting that someone who believes he has the knowledge to discern who among scientists who is genuine and who not, doesn't understand that this is a survey article written by a reporter. Either the reporter chose the title or an editor did. The scientists in question had nothing to do with it.

    I don't blame the reporter nor the editor, just do it right the next time.

  2. 48 minutes ago, blackhorse said:

    I remember 13 years ago when I bought my off the plan 10 th floor, 80 sqm condo half way between Asoke and Nana bts for sub 5 million and all the warnings and nonsense about never buy real estate you will lose 50 % immediately blah blah.
    I look around now and see the insane prices and crazy rents around lower Sukhumvit and glad I didn't listen

    I also bought a unit in the early 2000 for about 30,000 baht/m2, which was the going rate back then.

    It is in a pre '97 building and most of these building have appreciated to around 65-80,000 baht/m2, which is good, but still a far cry from the 300-400,000 baht/m2 developers are asking (demanding) now.

    There seem to be somewhat of a disconnect in the market and something could break.

  3. 17 hours ago, bristolboy said:

    I missed reading your research. Can you tell me where it was published. 

    Until then, I'll keep trusting to people known as climatologists.

     

    Scientists Can Now Blame Individual Natural Disasters on Climate Change

    Extreme event attribution is one of the most rapidly expanding areas of climate science

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-can-now-blame-individual-natural-disasters-on-climate-change/

    Interesting these pseudo scientist are using the world "blame" rather than "link" or "correlate". I guess it is a blame game even for the guys in white coats with thick glasses.

  4. 8 hours ago, Ulic said:

    China would like the IMF to bail out Pakistan and essentially bail out China for the poor business decisions it has made in Pakistan. 

    Christine Lagarde is sharp and the IMF have already said that they don't want to bankroll debt to China. 

    On the contrary, Pakistan will have to disclose all the shady deals they have made with China before IMF hands over a dime, hence why Pakistan have been crawling around begging for money in Saudi and now China.  

  5. 49 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

    Here is an interesting article about China's debt situation...

     

    https://dailyreckoning.com/rickards-debt-bomb-ready-to-explode/

    The clock is ticking for the Minsky Moment:

     

    A Minsky moment is a sudden major collapse of asset values which is part of the credit cycle or business cycle. Such moments occur because long periods of prosperity and increasing value of investments lead to increasing speculation using borrowed money. The spiraling debt incurred in financing speculative investments leads to cash flow problems for investors. The cash generated by their assets is no longer sufficient to pay off the debt they took on to acquire them. Losses on such speculative assets prompt lenders to call in their loans. This is likely to lead to a collapse of asset values. Meanwhile, the over-indebted investors are forced to sell even their less-speculative positions to make good on their loans. However, at this point no counterparty can be found to bid at the high asking prices previously quoted. This starts a major sell-off, leading to a sudden and precipitous collapse in market-clearing asset prices, a sharp drop in market liquidity, and a severe demand for cash.

     

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment

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  6. "Too big to fail" or banks with systemic risk was originally defined in 2008 as any bank with assets above $50 billion. Later in 2017 that was revised to $150 billion, but yearly stress-tests have kept the appetite for risk at the bigger banks under control.

     

    Now, take a look at China. They have one $4 trillion and another three $3 trillion banks and no stress tests. The 4 biggest banks in the world are all Chinese and have been funding lavish state project for 10 years now. If just one fail, it will make Lehman Brothers look like a failed bar closure in Pattaya. Happens all the time and the world move on.

  7. 16 minutes ago, mcambl61 said:

    did not see any factual evidence of corruption, just opinions

    Pretty hard to have factual evidence for future events. He just got elected, give the poor guy a chance, soon political opponents will get free accommodation in prison and criminals will fill mass graves. He is a military man, guns and violence is part of his DNA.

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