beautifulthailand99

Notice how the controversial Yermak the power behind the "throne" is on the panel and of course Boris who enobled Lebedev as Lord of Siberia. "Something is rotten in the state of Denmark "

Many western news sources are finding the reasons behind the Kursk incursion either elusive or failing in their intent to divert Russian resources from the Donbas fronts. Russia dials up pressure on Ukraine’s Kursk offensive Moscow claims it is retaking territory occupied by Kyiv, but Putin has not shifted forces away from Donetsk https://archive.is/CFNRZ#selection-1723.0-1727.108 But there has so far been little success for Ukraine in its aim of forcing Moscow to divert substantial forces away from the country’s east, where Kyiv’s exhausted troops are steadily losing ground. Russia has, if anything, stepped up the pressure within Ukraine, particularly around the important railway hub of Pokrovsk. The overall success of the Kursk invasion will now hinge on the costs Ukraine incurs in holding on to territory, potentially for months, according to analysts. And those costs will depend on the tactics Russian forces use to try to push the Ukrainian invaders out.

EU plans to raise up to €40bn in loans for Ukraine without US Brussels drafts alternative funding solution to circumvent a Hungary veto on extending the freezing of Russian assets https://archive.is/FcrIE The important thing to note is that these are loans secured on the assett with an expectation that Ukraine will pay them back in an orderly fashion. It would appear the West falters at the thought of seizing Russian assets unilaterally and disbursing the money directly lest other autocratic investors take umbrage and divest from the dollar/euro areas. Looks like sub prime loans that ended boomeranging back onto central banks , clever financial instruments seldom are in the end.

900 days into the war and sanctions are like a leaky sieve.Default global morality is just like Thailand, there is no 'bad' money - just money. West funding Putin’s soldiers with growing Russian fuel purchases, report warns Countries opposed to Moscow are spending ever more on cheap fuel made from Russian oil, according to a new analysis shared with POLITICO. https://www.politico.eu/article/west-funding-vladimir-putin-soldier-russia-fuel-oil-ukraine-war/ The imports are technically legal due to a well-known sanctions workaround. While the EU and its Western allies banned nearly all Russian oil imports long ago, countries can still buy fuel of Russian origin if it is first processed in another country, such as Turkey. According to the report, Turkey — and the Western firms buying from it — is taking increasing advantage of this so-called refining loophole, despite repeated Ukrainian pleas that it be closed. According to the authors of the report, one of the Turkish refineries, the Azerbaijan-owned Star Aegean, is 98-percent dependent on Russian crude, with some 73 percent of its supplies coming from Russian energy giant Lukoil, which the U.S. has sanctioned. Nevertheless, almost nine in 10 barrels from the refinery go to Western allies backing Ukraine. https://starrafineri.com.tr/?lang=en

His book is still for sale on Amazon - tempted to buy it ! https://www.amazon.com/Ukraines-Unwinnable-War-Abandonment-Citizen-Taiwan-ebook/dp/B0BX4W9XKT

Kyiv launched Kursk incursion despite high-level objections Some of Ukraine’s top army commanders questioned the cross-border assault, Ukrainian military officials tell POLITICO. https://www.politico.eu/article/kursk-russia-incursion-objections-war-in-ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy/ Others who opposed the offensive included the highly respected Emil Ishkulov, commander of Ukraine's 80th Air Assault Brigade. He was dismissed in July amid protests from high-ranking officers who called for him to be kept in post. “We don't understand why commanders who have unquestioned authority among the personnel, who have a victorious combat record and experience of a big war, are out of favor to the top leadership of the armed forces,” the commanders said in a protest video posted on social media sites. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-80th-brigade-against-commander-dismissal-he-will-allegedly-be-promoted/ Zaluzhny’s objection to the incursion, meanwhile, was that there was no clear second step after the border had been successfully breached by elite Ukrainian units drawn from four brigades, according to these officials. Zaluzhny queried: once you have the bridgehead, what then? “He never got a clear answer from Zelenskyy,” said one of the officials. “He felt it was a gamble,” he said.

US military aid packages to Ukraine shrink amid concerns over Pentagon stockpiles - CNN As Budanov pointed out in an earlier post the DPRK has provided virtually unlimited artillery shells and as an ancient former proxy of the 1950s Soviet Union they share a lot of historic kit. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/17/politics/us-reducing-military-aid-packages-ukraine/index.html “Replenishment is also an issue,” the official said. The US is ramping up production of key items, such as 155 mm ammunition and Patriot missile systems, both to supply Ukraine and to refill US inventories. But it is a yearslong process that won’t quickly meet the surging demand. Before the war in Ukraine, the US produced approximately 15,000 155 mm artillery shells each month. With new factories and production lines opening, the US is now producing 40,000 shells a month. But it will still take more than a year for the Pentagon to hit its goal of 100,000 shells each month. The process of ramping up production is on schedule, but the process will take years, requiring new facilities, expanded factories and Congress willing to allocate the money.

Quite - Harris wants to concentrate on domesric issues and avoid interviews so it's steady as she goes until post election. Whatever the collective decision of Europe/UK maybe going it alone it doen't hide the fact that's their precious little imventory as it is. Ukraine wants some more mega PR wins like Crimea and the destruction of the Russian Navy to attempt to gain the upper hand for the much vaunted negotiations and to deflect from the bloody attrition war in the Donbas and the faltering Kutsk incursion.

Looking like Ukraine has accepted they won't be getting long range Storm Shadow acess anytime soon and that's without the fact they are precious few to give anyway. My view is there are 2 things at play here - optics for the west with Biden leading on reticence deferring to Putin's sabre rattling and second the inventory issue which is more chronic they don't have many to give so they obsfucate the real reasons. Zelenskiy's entreaties are real he needs help and fast and isn't getting it from his partners. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38971 “There is no change to our view on the provision of long-range strike capabilities for Ukraine to use inside of Russia,” he said, adding that he “would not expect any major announcement in that regard.” Starmer told reporters at the White House that he had a “wide-ranging discussion about strategy” with Biden but that it “wasn’t a meeting about a particular capability.” Starmer had been expected to pressure Biden to back his plan to send British Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine so they could hit deeper inside Russia.

Alexander Shulgin is much more important.

Apologies have just re-read your post - I speed read so sometimes I miss detail. Thankyou for helpfully pointing that out.

But they certainly wouldn't be game changers then if that was the case. It is back to ammo, artillery and barrels and drones. Given the widespread informed information out there about NATO missiles and the size of the inventory I am curious as to why Zelenskiy is highly focused on them in megaphone diplomacy.

The Ukrainains really want Taurus but Germany has said a firm no and the production line is currently idle. There are barely any left in European inventories that anyone who has them wants to spare. So a lot of this current debate is smoke and mirrors there just isn't the inventory even if the politic side was willing. https://archive.is/5WPvN The UK had around 700-1000 missiles around the 2000s, and there hasn't been any mention of a refresh order. Given the programs to replace the StormShadow started in early 2018, I doubt any have been ordered from then until recently, when the UK donated an unknown number to Ukraine. The last country to order StormShadow was Greece in 2019, and it took 3 years to deliver 90 missiles, with delivery complete in 2022. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow

MARK URBAN - Are Russia and Ukraine edging towards an endgame? Troop shortages and fatigue may force a reluctant Putin and Zelensky to the negotiating table. Who’ll make the first move, asks Mark Urban, as he joins The Sunday Times (he is ex British Army and BBC and rumoured to be a spook!) https://archive.is/S7RWN#selection-1431.0-1439.168 In May, a new mobilisation law came into force in response to army requests for up to 500,000 fresh troops, replacing casualties and allowing war weary soldiers to go home. It has yet to produce even a small fraction of that figure. There have been complaints from frontline units that new conscripts lack motivation or have even refused to fight. All of this has fed into a dismal summer for the Ukrainian army across much of the Donbas region, the main battleground in the east, with the Russian army now closing in on the important transport hub of Pokrovsk. In many units, effective strength is down to one third or even a quarter.

Before my hiatus I think I had covered this. Maybe not. From the FT. https://archive.is/ZTGCk#selection-1647.4-1650.2 One problem, according to western officials, is that Russia began moving its aviation assets deeper inside Russia about three months ago, beyond the 250km range of Storm Shadows and the up to 300km range of Atacms. Another problem is that inventories of Storm Shadows and Scalps are low, so even with permission for cross-border strikes Kyiv would not be able to deploy them in volume against multiple Russian targets. “The missiles are no strategic panacea for Ukraine’s strategic military situation,” said another western official.

Juilan Roepcke one of the most fearerss and honest reporters from Ukraine is back in country on the front lines. Expect some great reporting in the next few days if he survives.

WAPO - Opinion Ukraine is bleeding out. It cannot fight forever. Supporting Ukraine “as long as it takes” does not match the reality of this conflict. https://archive.is/tqy9W#selection-571.0-583.85 Listening to their stories, you realize that Ukraine is bleeding out. Its will to fight is as strong as ever, but its army is exhausted by a ceaseless drone war that’s unlike anything in the history of combat. The Biden administration’s rubric of support — “as long as it takes” — simply doesn’t match the reality of this conflict. Ukraine doesn’t have enough soldiers to fight an indefinite war of attrition. It needs to escalate to be strong enough to reach a decent settlement.

Britain ‘won’t go it alone’ over long-range missiles for Ukraine The UK will not approve the use of the weapons against targets in Russia without the agreement of the United States, as Zelensky pleads for ‘decisiveness’ https://archive.is/GRI8T#selection-1427.0-1431.154 US and UK policy have always been aligned since WW2 it is strict policy - only Harold Wilson had the guts to duck out of Vietnam in the 60s quite wisely at it turns out. However, The Times has been told that the UK will not “go it alone” because US guidance systems were seen as crucial to ensuring the missiles hit their targets. The government believes the US is still likely to give the green light at the UN general assembly in New York, although there are splits within President Biden’s administration.

Could it be an inside job ? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13854285/Trump-assassination-attempt-sparks-chilling-theory-gunman.html

I wonder will this boost Trump's ratings in some weird way - like God is looking after him sort of narrative. If he had been killed by the AK47 there would be the double irony of a Ukrainian supporter killing an Amerocan ex president with a Russian rifle.

You will be pleased to know I have no desire to kill any world leaders or have them killed and fully expect to die peacefully in my bed of natural causes. Something I wish on everyone here.

This guy seems like someone that has been heavily propagandized to by mainstream media with these sort of messages. Probably thought he was doing god's work. “Putin alone is responsible for this war, and if we eliminate him, it will all be fixed!” Russia is an evil authoritarian state, and we are in a titanic struggle of democracy vs dictators. Authoritarianism is spreading throughout the world and we as the good guys must fight back. The solution is to escalate conflict and defeat them militarily. It's very sad if he had kept off the internet and acted locally rather than filling his brain with distant confilcits over which he had no agency he would still be free - instead he is looking at life in priosn now for nothing.

Ukrainian foreign minister Sybiha said he would support Poland's idea to deprive EU benefits to Ukrainian men of mobilization age, adding that one million men of mobilization age were living abroad, including 300,000 in Poland - Euractiv https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/poland-backs-ending-eu-benefits-for-ukrainian-men-of-fighting-age/ I vaguely know one in his thirties who has a Thai girlfriend who is a friend of the missus. University educated , great English and a high paying job in IT has no plans to return nor do many of his mates in the UK either.They are refugees I hope Europe continues to recognise their status and he has no time for either Putin or Zelenskiy or indeed any politics. Just wants to live in peace.

‘Sprinkled with our blood’: Why so many Ukrainians resist land for peace - Ukraine is under pressure to cut a deal to end the war, especially if Trump wins, but there is likely to be fierce opposition from some soldiers and their families in the east. - The Washington Post https://archive.is/VusHu