beautifulthailand99

Since I was referencing Kissinger I did a dive and came up with this perceptive analysis. His final statement is coming chillingly true - the worlds' largest landmass and richest in natural resources allies themselves with the world's largest industrial giant. How do you think that pans out ? Add Putin's stooge Trump likely to come to power in the world's richest and most powerful country no wonder western leaders are panicking at the prospect. The Roman Empire died with decadence and the barbarians at the gate. As Marx said 'The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see' and "History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce" holds immense relevance in this context. "Right off the top of my head, I cannot give a direct answer," Kissinger responded. "Because the war in Ukraine is on one level a war about the balance of power. But on another level, it has aspects of a civil war, and it combines a classically European type of international problem with a totally global one. When this war is over, the issue will be whether Russia achieves a coherent relationship with Europe -- which it has always sought -- or whether it will become an outpost of Asia at the border of Europe." https://www.rferl.org/a/henry-kissinger-evolution-views-russia-ukraine-obituary/32708682.html

You devil ! But what about the wildfires ?

He is a hugely respected Professor at the University of Texas and son of the famous economist JK Galbraith one of the most famous and distinguished economists of all time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_K._Galbraith

These are the points that Professor Galbraith makes in that video, then you ally China is as a "partner without limits" as they call it then it's a perfect storm for the perceived limits of western power and influence. Kissinger no less before he died majored on that point https://www.newsweek.com/kissinger-predicts-china-involvement-will-lead-ukraine-peace-talks-1798917

My play book as you call it is to want peace and an end to war by understanding the complexities of the situation and accepting certain geopolitical realities. We have had 2 years of Putin is dying , he will be replaced in a coup, Russia's economy is on its knees, the counteroffensive will work ,shovels and washing machines, Leopards ,Abrams, Challengers and the next Wunderwaffe are game changers and doubters have been called Putin shills , Kremlin mouthpieces, traitors and the like. The time has come to accept reality and begin a road to a messy peace, not more senseless war. I have been a pacifist by temperament all my life and if that makes me a useful idiot so be it. The Pentagon's think tank the Rand Corporation has already war gamed a potential end to hostilities, Ukrainian watchers may find it of interest if they truly want to be informed. I take care with my posts and links hopefully to inform and educate, not to annoy others with different views if you choose to denigrate them rather than engage with their substance, then mai bpen rai. https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html President Biden has said that this war will end at the negotiating table.[74] But the administration has not yet made any moves to push the parties toward talks. Although it is far from certain that a change in U.S. policy can spark negotiations, adopting one or more of the policies described in this Perspective could make talks more likely. We identify reasons why Russia and Ukraine may have mutual optimism about war and pessimism about peace. The literature on war termination suggests that such perceptions can lead to protracted conflict. Therefore, we highlight four options the United States has for shifting these dynamics: clarifying its plans for future support to Ukraine, making commitments to Ukraine's security, issuing assurances regarding the country's neutrality, and setting conditions for sanctions relief for Russia. A dramatic, overnight shift in U.S. policy is politically impossible—both domestically and with allies—and would be unwise in any case. But developing these instruments now and socializing them with Ukraine and with U.S. allies might help catalyze the eventual start of a process that could bring this war to a negotiated end in a time frame that would serve U.S. interests. The alternative is a long war that poses major challenges for the United States, Ukraine, and the rest of the world.

Paradise is here and now, or it is nowhere. Where is it ?

In terms of sanctions on Russia they have been an unmitigated disaster for the West - forcing a pivotal movement of those markets and resources away from the west to new partners, accelerated the process towards consolidating and expanding their industrial and industrial military base, cementing an inviolable relationship with China and others that can prove an able and willing partner to replace tech know how that they lost with sanctions. What has happened we have sanctioned ourselves, threatened German's industrial base which was posited on cheap Russian gas and markets and by so doing the stability of the Eurozone itself. If you don't believe me, listen to this recent lecture from the noted Professor of Economics James K. Galbraith who makes all these points with great eloquence and persuasiveness

If you are leaving your wife which sounds like you are, maybe that is the real issue, not the country. Good relationships are a partnership where the couple make decisions together, not impulsively by one party on a whim.

Become a monk for a month in some remote jungle temple that will give you tine to reflect on what you really want and what Thailand really is. I'm only half joking as well.

I used to dream of that prospect 20 years ago and even though I have condo with my wife in Jomtien and more than enough funds to live comfortably there for the rest of my life it would be my worst nightmare.

We.Must.Stop.TheCommies.

The proliferation of articles in the pro-Ukraine western press detailing the dire position of the Ukrainian front are an indication of a potential rout and collapse of the front. Macron's posturing about there may have to be boots on the ground is a reflection of that reality. But the truth is the western electorates don't want that, and anyway they are in a poor state militarily to make much difference even if they did never mind the terrible optics of body bags for a war few understand or even care about any more and besides they need any ammo they have for themselves. The Ukrainians have more than shown their bravery and valour, but there comes a time when to continue for no gain is senseless slaughter. Armistice now. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/08/russia-ukraine-forces-struggle-enemy-mariinka “The Russians have more of everything. Tanks, artillery, human resources and planes,” Sasha admitted, speaking as he conducted a test flight with his bomb-carrying quadcopter. In the distance, next to a slag heap, black smoke billowed into a white sky. He added: “We have a lot less. And they prepared for this war for a long time. Unfortunately, we didn’t. We can only survive if the west steps up and gives us more weapons.” If you want the old battalion, I know where they are, I know where they are, I know where they are If you want to find the old battalion, I know where they are, They're hanging on the old barbed wire, I've seen 'em, I've seen 'em, hanging on the old barbed wire. I've seen 'em, I've seen 'em, hanging on the old barbed wire Besides which there is a conscription crisis, the days of young men queuing up to defend their country have long since gone. Would you be signing up to fight at this point ? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68255490 When Pavlo Zhilin and his patrol hit the streets of Cherkasy, men often swerve to avoid them. Pavlo is a conscription officer looking for soldiers for Ukraine's army. But almost two years into Russia's full-scale invasion, there's no flood of volunteers to the front line anymore. Most of those who wanted to fight are either dead, injured or still stuck at the front waiting to be relieved by new recruits. In the central town of Cherkasy, like elsewhere, finding them isn't easy now that the first burst of enthusiasm and energy has faded. Ukraine is exhausted.

Adam Curtis's Traumazone is a peerless 7hr look at how the USSR collapsed and the chaos it unleashed, and ends with the rise of Putin. A must-see for anyone who wants to know how we got here and the best 'documentary' I have ever seen. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_1985–1999:_TraumaZone Trailer All 7 hours

I find r/Ukraine is full on propaganda, fair enough that's what it there for and it's explicit purpose. I read and contribute to r/UkraineRussiaReport that has a lively mix of Pro-UA, Pro-Russia and neutral. So all posts are hotly debated, torn part and critiqued. It has been an amazing source and clearing house of commentary, information links and OSINT that you simply don't get elsewhere. But it's a not an echo chamber and if you come with straight out propaganda you will get ripped anew one. It's got 75k members. WillyOAM the Aussie ex-infantryman is great as well on YouTube.

Thus is beyond tragic in so many ways.

A link would help.

From that Guardian article you qouted. The strength of the proposal is that seized assets would be deemed to have been returned to Russia after the payment of reparations. The proposal’s weakness is that it assumes Ukraine will win a military victory and a defeated Moscow will be prepared to pay reparations for the damage it caused to Ukraine, something that now seems unimaginable.

From that link I provided from Carnegie. I call grandstanding - who will buy this debt ? Anybody here willing to invest in this bond ? Alternatively, under a plan reportedly already circulating among G7 nations, the assets could be used as collateral for bonds. Ukraine’s allies would first demand that Russia repays the debt, and if it refuses to do so, the frozen assets would be confiscated, according to the Financial Times. Selling the bonds would raise funds and the flow of money could be regulated. It would also avoid many of the risks described above, as officially Russia’s assets would remain unappropriated until the bonds are repaid. The difficulty is finding someone to buy those bonds. Central banks are unlikely to step in: that would effectively be akin to printing money and a return to the quantitative easing policies of the 2009 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. For their part, commercial banks are unlikely to buy the bonds without guarantees (in effect, debt securities) from Western governments. Thus, transferring Russia’s frozen assets to Kyiv this way would prove costly for the West and its taxpayers.

No cost for you, of course, in blood and treasure from your Thailand lair, but western taxpayers may think differently if they understand the costs and risks more fully. He may of course be grandstanding, fully expecting it to be lost in the thicket of implementation. Trump may use such threats in his shotgun diplomacy if he comes to power next year.

The danger of course in sequestrating foreign assets from the western banking system for whatever reason is it sends the message to worldwide autocrats that it could happen to them. So China and a host of other countries will begin repatriating their assets to safer havens. If that happens, then there will be a retreat from the dollar and linked currencies and bond market crisis as countries will be forced to raise interest rates on bonds and increase the servicing costs of the debt they already hold. Any remaining western assets in Russia will of course be seized as well to add to the bounty that Russia already has from the fire sale of well known brands to local oligarch such as MacDonalds and Starbucks. The China/Russia/Iran/NK/BRICS Global South alternative financial universe is already expanding at pace - sequestration will be a key signal for many players to move over there. Indeed, China has set up its own Bank to deal with it. The sun is setting on dollar western hegemony. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Development_Bank https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91556 Above all, they fear that doing so would deter sovereign wealth funds, central banks, corporations, and private investors from the Global South from investing in European assets. A potential outflow of investment in euros would have serious consequences: a rise in borrowing costs and inflation, as well as a fall in tax revenues. Some might say that there is nothing to worry about: after all, losing an investment is a calculated risk in high-yield investing in emerging markets, especially when, as in Russia’s case, the threat of sanctions has existed for years. Yet this argument, which is based on a fundamental principle of capitalism—that there is no profit without risk—has a major flaw. For many systemically important Western firms, writing off Russian assets would spell disaster. Take Euroclear, used by foreign investors to buy Russian stocks and bonds. If its clients’ assets were seized, it could face a slew of lawsuits and even bankruptcy. Bailing out companies like Euroclear would ultimately cost European governments even more than direct aid to Ukraine. An exchange of frozen assets is therefore the most logical solution, but so far no one is willing to break the deadlock.

Thanks for that Chat GPT says ; Yes, tax authorities from different countries often collaborate and share information through agreements and conventions to ensure compliance with tax laws. One such agreement that facilitates this is the Double Taxation Agreement (DTA) between countries. The United Kingdom and Thailand have a Double Taxation Agreement in place, which helps prevent individuals from being taxed on the same income in both countries. This agreement also includes provisions for the exchange of information between the tax authorities of the two countries. Under this agreement, Thai tax authorities can request information from the UK tax authorities regarding the tax status and activities of a UK citizen residing in Thailand. Likewise, UK tax authorities can request similar information about a Thai citizen residing in the UK. These information exchange agreements are designed to promote transparency and prevent tax evasion. So, if there are suspicions or if it's part of a routine check, the Thai tax authorities could contact their counterparts in the UK to verify the tax status of a UK citizen residing in Thailand.

Oh dear, never mind.

TVF Keyboard Warrior Brigade - Catering Corp (Retired)

First recorded destruction of a HIMARS battery reportedly by an Isklander-M missile. NOEL Reports is a trusted Ukrainian source.

Just imagine what could happen if Russian agents managed to penetrate the highest political levels in the U.S.! Unimaginable...and that would be wild !