jamesbrock

As I posted a few weeks ago, this by the Committee on the Status and Future Directions in U.S Weather Modification Research and Operations, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences (http://www.eenews.net/assets/2014/12/17/document_gw_01.pdf) concludes:

The Committee concurs with the conclusion from Silverman (2001) that: “Based upon a rigorous examination of the accumulated results of the numerous experimental tests of the static-mode and dynamic- mode seeding concepts conducted over the past four decades, it has been found that they have not yet provided either the statistical or physical evidence required to establish their scientific validity.” This statement was made specifically in reference to glaciogenic seeding of convective clouds. With the possible exception of winter orographic clouds, it applies to virtually all efforts aimed at precipitation enhancement or hail suppression. This does not challenge the scientific basis of cloud-seeding concepts; rather, it is recognition of the lack of credible evidence that applying these concepts will lead to predictable, detectable, and verifiable results.

As Winniedapu pointed out, people on the ground do occasionally see the effects of cloud seeding in some—not all—instances, but as found by various independent first world scientific studies, the effects often appear later in time, and outside the seeded area:

For example, in recent large particle hygroscopic seeding trials involving warm-base convective clouds in Thailand and Texas, increases in rain were reported 3 to 12 hours after seeding was conducted, well beyond the time at which direct effects of seeding were expected and possibly outside the target area.

Some argue that increasing precipitation in one region could reduce precipitation downwind (by “stealing” the atmospheric water vapor), or conversely, could enhance precipitation downwind (by increasing evaporation and transpiration and thus providing more moisture for clouds). Such claims, however, currently belong to the realm of speculation, as no quantitative studies of this issue have been conducted. This is a challenging issue to address, due to the current limitations of quantitative precipitation forecasting.

Again, the reason why Thailand has been wracked by drought for the past 18 months, while releasing mounds of table salt from trap doors in the bellies of its planes, is because seeding only occasionally works if the conditions for rain are there in the first place.

Since 1980 operational and research glaciogenic seeding experiments for rainfall enhancement based on the dynamic seeding concept have been conducted in Thailand. Exploratory analyses of these experiments have indicated precipitation increases on the scale of individual clouds or cells with varying levels of statistical support. The evidence for area-wide effects, although suggestive of precipitation increases, is weak and lacking in statistical support.

More recently, according to a report presented at the 7th WMO Scientific Conference on Weather Modification in Chiang Mai in 1999, a randomised convective cloud-seeding experiment was conducted on mixed-phase clouds in Thailand, based on the dynamic seeding concept. The sample consisted of 62 units, and while the statistical results indicated increases in rainfall, the results were not statistically significant.

In recent hygroscopic seeding experiments conducted in Thailand and reported on in 2003, statistical analyses indicated increases in rainfall, but they appeared later in time than anticipated and did not conform to the original hypothesis. Dynamical effects, which were not included in the original hypotheses, were invoked to explain the results.

Dan Breed, a scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, who in 2014 completed a nine-year, $14 million government-funded study, states “There’s little dispute that if you can actually get the seeding material inside the clouds, it will enhance precipitation, the question is, by how much?” And compared to what?

As the National research Council states in its report:

The need to predict what would have happened had there been no weather modification (which is especially important in the context of attempts to modify hazardous weather) places an enormous burden on prediction. Predictive numerical models are required to accurately assess what would have occurred in the absence of any intervention, in order to assess both the magnitude and the potential consequences of the change. However, model development and physical understanding are interdependent, thus advances in both are slow and iterative.

I could very well be wrong—I have been before—but my opinion, based on decades of observing the RTP:

• only the RTP would be invested enough in the case to try to stop a (presumably) independent interpreter from assisting these suspects;
• only the RTP would be stupid enough to miss the point that said interpreter is also assisting them;
• only the RTP would bash the interpreter and threaten him with deportation (in the history of all warning-bashings has any civilian ever thought that threatening someone with something they have no power to do—i.e. deport them? The very thought is preposterous!);
• only the RTP would be arrogant enough to think that the public would believe that someone working closely with police in arguably one of the highest profile cases in the kingdom would even be using marijuana and crystal meth, let alone wandering the streets with it on his person.

As Caveat Emptor wrote, the RTP have brought these well-founded suspicions upon themselves.

So if you can get past your starting point that the RTP are inherently stupid, it doesn't make much sense does it.

How can an interpreter weaken their case?

If they did want him gone, why not simply deport him for overstay?

YOU think that someone appearing in court 4 days/month wouldn't be using drugs, or making self-serving statements such as helping the Thai justice system will get him 7 years jail if deported. On what evidence?

But I can't get past my starting point, that's why my opinion is what it is.

I could very well be wrong—I have been before—but my opinion, based on decades of observing the RTP:

• only the RTP would be invested enough in the case to try to stop a (presumably) independent interpreter from assisting these suspects;
• only the RTP would be stupid enough to miss the point that said interpreter is also assisting them;
• only the RTP would bash the interpreter and threaten him with deportation (in the history of all warning-bashings has any civilian ever thought that threatening someone with something they have no power to do—i.e. deport them? The very thought is preposterous!);
• only the RTP would be arrogant enough to think that the public would believe that someone working closely with police in arguably one of the highest profile cases in the kingdom would even be using marijuana and crystal meth, let alone wandering the streets with it on his person.

As Caveat Emptor wrote, the RTP have brought these well-founded suspicions upon themselves.

Scary thing for me is how will he react if there is an uprising.

Live fire on unarmed civilians has been their modus operandi in the past, on several occasions, I have no reason to believe that will change.

So why aren't they storming the wat?

...yet?

I think NongKhaiKid pretty much answered the question for me.

Why did they wait for months before declaring downtown Bangkok a "live fire zone"? Probably to (erroneously) ensure that they had just cause to do what they did.

Just give it time...

For all his bravado and shouting he has not fixed one problem in this country...

A high ranking cop & his cronies sent to jail, finally sorted out the lottery price, some people in Phuket just been jailed over land issues, cleaned up Surin beach, army guy & others arrested for human trafficking, many other cases pending. He may not be perfect but has done more than previous governments.

I don't think the top cop issue can be claimed as a govt success because had it not been for an issue we can't talk about it's more than possible he might still be in post and still raking it in. Look how long he lasted without any action being taken and his activities must have been known, then something well beyond his control happens and it's all over.

Yep, just goes to show how selectively enforcing some laws in some cases some of the time is enough to keep some people happy....

Scary thing for me is how will he react if there is an uprising.

Live fire on unarmed civilians has been their modus operandi in the past, on several occasions, I have no reason to believe that will change.

In fact people as young as 15 can marry if the parents agree but the matter may need to be ratified by a court so it is clearly understood that both sides agree. Permission in such cases might be given when a pregnancy is involved.

I would've though a lengthy jail sentence would be given if a pregnancy was involved in a 15 year old's marriage...

So, an Uzbek national, who has been interpreting for the police, is now being accused of "helping the suspects" so the police someone bashes him and threatens to have him deported (not the police, even though they're the only ones who can have someone deported...), and he then gets arrested "carrying drugs" the very same day?

And we're supposed to believe this bulldust?

Thailand: ASEAN hub of justice affairs

Yet again, I am reminded of why I chose my signature... ⬇︎

Surely that boat in the photo can't take 30 cars?!

And traveling 109 km in 90 minutes = 73 km/hour average? Unlikely.

Trust a farang to scrutinise the numbers and cause disunity in the Kingdom. AA invitation on its way for you!

Barely functional website. Links on the top banner all open the home page. News article pages simply regurgitate the headline on the home page.

Stupid me for expecting more.

Be handy for the Thai navy to move submarines and aircraft carriers from one coast to the other. Mountainous spine of the peninsula would be a challenge though.

Not just the Thai navy...

As for the mountainous spine, that can be mostly avoided by not choosing the narrowest route across the isthmus. At its narrowest point, the Kra Isthmus only 44 km (27 mi), but across that point the height of the mountainous spine is 75 m (246 ft). The Chinese proposes a 102km route much further to the south, roughly between Satun and Songkhla, which would traverse a natural valley in the mountains along the 406 highway.

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Thanks for your studied reply to my flippant comment. What do think the chances are of this being done? Would be beneficial to China and a smack in the face for Singapore.

Yes, I did notice an element of flippancy there...

I think the chances of it eventuating are pretty high; according to the International Maritime Bureau in London, the Strait of Malacca are among the most dangerous waters in the world, and with one fourth of internationally traded goods crossing these congested and pirate infested straits—including all the oil and gas that China uses for 80% of its energy requirements—it is a logical answer to China's need. Which might explain why they're pushing it.

That being said, I doubt it will happen while this economic illiterate is ruling the nation.

Of course, then there is the US perspective...

China currently meets 80% of its energy needs by transporting oil and gas through the Strait of Malacca, which is in turn patrolled by Indian and American fleets. The U.S. is already apprehensive about the growing potential of the Chinese navy, and the possibility that it will expand its zones of control worries both military officials and politicians in Washington. Several experts have even expressed the view that China could open its own naval base at Gwadar, Pakistan, since they have already signed an agreement with Pakistani authorities. The ability to pass through the Thai Canal would simplify this task many times over. Such a configuration could undeniably change the balance of power across the entire region in China’s favor, which the U.S. can’t allow to happen for a number of reasons. [http://world-economic.com/articles_wej-342.html]

This is a very interesting article: http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/how-a-thai-canal-could-transform-southeast-asia/

Be handy for the Thai navy to move submarines and aircraft carriers from one coast to the other. Mountainous spine of the peninsula would be a challenge though.

Not just the Thai navy...

As for the mountainous spine, that can be mostly avoided by not choosing the narrowest route across the isthmus. At its narrowest point, the Kra Isthmus only 44 km (27 mi), but across that point the height of the mountainous spine is 75 m (246 ft). The Chinese proposes a 102km route much further to the south, roughly between Satun and Songkhla, which would traverse a natural valley in the mountains along the 406 highway.

Who's idea was this canal before the junta got it's fingers in the cookie jar? I've heard it was some bloke now in Dubai

Not unless he was born in the 17th century

Indeed:

The idea was first mooted by Siamese King Narai as far back as 1677.

Every so often the idea resurfaces, for example in the 1870s, after the Suez Canal demonstrated that a man-made canal was viable.

The 1946 Anglo-Thai treaty forbade the Siamese government from building such a canal without prior agreement of the British government.

The British deemed the canal a threat to the dominance of Singapore - then a British colony - as a regional shipping hub.

The idea was revived in the 1950s and the 1970s, and the thread was picked up in the 1980s by the Japanese. It made an appearance every decade or so, and often when a new administration comes into power in Thailand.

As China's economy boomed, the Thais have turned to the Chinese to lend support the project.

Proponents of the project continue to push for it. Last year, businessman Pakdee Tanapura, a member of a Kra Canal Committee, told The Straits Times that the canal could be part of China's Maritime Silk Route,which is aimed at improving connectivity and trade through the South China Sea. [http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/renewed-hype-over-china-thai-canal-project-5-things-about-the-kra-canal]

lmao!!! Am I the only one thinking those reports of "everyday charms of Thailand, its culture and its people" may turn out NOT to be what TAT Governor Yuthasak Supasorn expects?

Will the dictum of ' no criticism or else ' be extended to this scheme and people who blog about being ripped off etc. ?

Yes, no doubt these blogs would be selectively published; the more idealised, nay, fictionalised the better.

Yet more proof that this guy just doesn't get it...

...but supports economic expansion through the development of agriculture, investment, and infrastructure development to attract foreign investment.

Surely building the canal would support economic expansion by attracting foreign (Chinese) investment, and, as a nation-building infrastructure project, would develop the agriculture industry?

The Kra-Canal could be of an enormous economical benefit to Thailand and it could become a centre of gravity for trade between the Pacific and Indian Ocean. The plan is to develop an industrial zone for heavy industry, including dry-dock and ship-building facilities and a deep-sea port at the canal entrances. This would make the Kra-Canal the ideal and major transhipment port for Asia, comparable to Europort in Rotterdam. [http://www.iims.org.uk/kra-canal-project/]

That being said, despite the incessant protests from the junta, the news from China is that it's all but a done deal:

A memorandum of cooperation among various enterprises on the construction of Kra Canal in Thailand has been signed in Guangzhou China. [https://chinadailymail.com/2015/05/17/china-announces-strategically-important-kra-isthmus-canal-in-thailand/]

I'm calling BS on this story. The BBC had a story about 3D crossings in India a few weeks ago so it isn't Thai innovation. Good idea if the drivers new what the purpose of the crossing was.

This story about 3D zebra crossing in China is dated 2008: http://www.express.co.uk/news/weird/75492/The-3D-zebra-crossing-stopping-drivers-in-their-tracks

"Thai innovation"

Getting very concerning. Step after step towards N.Korean-style information control. Will democracy ever return to Thailand?

Must stop the truth at all costs.

If anyone still harboured any doubts that Thailand is modelling itself on North Korea, surely this is enough to dispel them?

Nothing like North Korea. If you don't see the difference try doing some research. One is a constitutional monarchy and capitalist; the other is a communist dictatorship that was set up and controlled by one particular family.

Then read how many so called democratic countries have restrictive regulation and spy on their populations far more than Thailand. Whistle blowers don't get to blow their whistles without reason.

If you really think Thailand is modelling itself on North Korea then you are naive at best.

Oh really?Maybe you are a bit wrong,In Thailand all is about one particular family,it's the family what can do whatever they like to do without the fear to get punished.It's 2016 there are no real 100% communist countries anymore.Even NK opened up

mrmicbkktxi, spot on.

Baerboxer, I'd rather be accused of being naive than wilfully ignorant.

A constitutional monarchy you say? Strange, I could've sworn there was a coup a couple of years ago, and the leader of said coup tore up the constitution and cemented Thailand's oligarchy - or, more specifically, a form of government that we are not allowed to refer to by name but is identical to North Korea's...

Perhaps, Baerboxer, it is you who should be doing some research rather than swallowing the myths and propaganda and calling others naive.

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To Swiss1960 - while I don't doubt your knowledge and technical expertise; like many others here, the fact that they might not be able to pull this off as reported is not the worrying part - as AlQaholic put it, "the really scary thing here is that the idea is even allowed to float around."

If not for social media, they would never have changed their tune.

I am not saying you are wrong, but I am curious how you reached that conclusion? Or is it just an early morning bash?

Not saying you didn't read the article, but I am curious how anyone couldn't reach that conclusion after doing so.

Is anyone really surprise and I'm tempted to say " we ain't seen nothing yet. " There, I've said it.

We certainly haven't.

The walls will come crashing down any day now, and it won't be pretty.

Wife & I won't be coming back to Thailand for a long time.

Amazing thing, the power of publicity eh?

Oh yes, without it the original take it or leave it offer would have stood.

One can see why the junta is rushing to take Thailand back to the dark ages - it was much easier to get away with all manner of stuff before the advent of this pesky social media!

Getting very concerning. Step after step towards N.Korean-style information control. Will democracy ever return to Thailand?

Must stop the truth at all costs.

If anyone still harboured any doubts that Thailand is modelling itself on North Korea, surely this is enough to dispel them?

I guess there's no better place to hold it than Thailand - after all, the Thais have cured cancer, ebola, and HIV/AIDS...

will the court see past all the B/S and give him what he deserves

I'm willing to go on record as saying 'No, no they won't.'

Denying some of the charges should increase his sentence by a good 15 years

I was going to write the same thing.

If confessing and pleading guilty gets one a lesser sentence, then denying inarguable facts should have the opposite effect.