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21 hours ago, Gottfrid said:

I do not know what kind of problem you have understanding. I have visited the island enough many times to collect information and form an opinion. Why would I live somewhere I do not like or see fit? Assumptions again. Yes, I do know that Thalang is in the north of Phuket. However, again you are totally irrelevant with you ongoing assumptions.

It's great that you've learned how to use Google ????

3 minutes ago, Gottfrid said:

That was not what I posted about. I posted about that Phuket looks like everywhere in the western world, with the addition of palm trees and coconuts. FYI, I do not live in Pattaya, as you just pretended to know. Now you can continue to defend you over developed little part of Thailand, and I will get back to my quiet and nice life in the rural areas. You know, where you meet the genuine part of the country you choose to move to. A place where they do not look at you as a money making machine and try to take advantage of your every step.

So you haven't lived in Phuket at all. Thanks for confirming what I thought. You're sounding off about a subject about which you have little or no first hand knowledge.

If you'd spent any time in Thalang, Chalong or Phuket Town, you would understand that many parts of Phuket have little or nothing to do with tourism. I bet you don't even know where Thalang is.

51 minutes ago, Gottfrid said:

If you really wanted a change of life, new country and different surroundings? Nowhere! Phuket is like leaving the western world, but still living in it.

So how many years have you lived in Phuket to make that judgement?

I'll let everybody reading into a secret. The majority of people who trash Phuket in every thread live in Pattaya.

I'm sure in everyone's hometown, there are nice areas and bad areas. The houses in the nice areas are more expensive, but people are willing to pay more so that they don't have to meet the people living in the bad areas.

If Thailand are struggling to choose which countries to come, why not stage a FIFA-style draw to decide, with each country's name hidden inside a ball?

To make it even more exciting, book your flight and hotel before the draw ????

38 minutes ago, Enzian said:

Would someone please link the contacts of the standard insurance companies that the Thai government accepts for the COE entry insurance? Or at least the ballpark costs for different age groups and different time frames, 30 days to a year? I'm out of the country (in USA), and to renew my Non-O in person (the only way I assume) I will have to return a couple of weeks before it rolls over on Dec. 20, which is about the same time I turn 82. If these onerous requirements are not dropped, I may just let it expire and wait till some time next year.

Here's a link to 3 of the Thai covid insurance companies:

https://asq.in.th/thailand-covid-insurance

Edit: The policies above only cover you up to the age of 75. Here's a link to a company that accepts people up to the age of 99:

https://covid19.tgia.org/

4 hours ago, Guderian said:

They're trying to follow much richer countries with far higher vaccination covereage in opening up (e.g. Denmark. where 88% of people over the age of 18 and an astonishing 97% of the over-60's have received both shots). It's premature, many doctors don't even think the UK (with two-thirds of the population fully-vaccinated, compared with just one-third in Thailand)) should be fully reopening yet. Of course, everyone wants life to return to normal and to be able to go out for a beer, and for people working in the foreign tourism sector to get their jobs and livelihoods back, but they're going too far too fast. They simply don't have the breadth and depth of vaccine coverage, and this is likely to end in tears, I'm afraid.

If fully insured, fully vaccinated tourists with 2 negative PCR tests are allowed into Thailand, what difference does it make?

27 minutes ago, Pedrogaz said:

Personally I would be pleased with a smaller, but much more expensive tourist industry. Of course that would require cleaning the place up, sorting out the dangerous electricity, and impounding the vehicle of lots of bad drivers.

Why would anyone want to come to your expensive, sanitised tourist destination? Cities like Singapore and Tokyo have higher safety standards, cleaner streets and better drivers than Thailand could ever have.

Why don't you live in one of those safe, expensive cities? Not enough money, right? ????

4 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Correct, China isn't even issuing passports to its own citizens anymore.

 

'No Ordinary Passports to be Issued': China Restricts Overseas Travel to Curb Fresh Covid Outbreak
https://www.news18.com/news/world/no-ordinary-passports-to-be-issued-china-restricts-overseas-travel-to-curb-fresh-covid-outbreak-4044824.html
 

China claim to have had 4,636 covid deaths in total, and 96,435 cases of covid since 2019. With a similar population, India have 451,220 deaths and 34,000,500 cases.

If those figures are close to being accurate, China's borders are likely to stay sealed for a long time to come.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

35 minutes ago, ToothlessMatt said:

Thanks for making the effort that I failed to make.

These kinds of predictions are incredibly hard to make on a month by month basis.

What is easier is direction of travel.

Thailand is going to continue to emerge as an aconomy, it wont be straight line growth, and various parties are going to do their damndest to advance their agendas irrespective of how much this slows growth. But the baht will appreciate against the dollar.

On the other hand the (dis)United Kingdom is on a different trajectory, at least for the next 2 or 3 decades.

This combo is going to result in much moaning by fixed income brits. Yes, UK interest rates are likely to go up to control inflation, but they will also go up for borrowers, causing havoc in the housing market. An increase fron 2% to 4% in the mortgage rate doubles the monthly payment.

There is a real risk that interest rates could go up, fuellling inflation, without bolstering the pound, meaning those retirees that don't have indexed linked annuities/pensions, are going to be in for some real pain. Even those that are protected against inflation, like those on police pensions, are likely still in for some pain.

In the longer term (decades) the UK, or its constiuent parts, will either make the structural changes to adapt, or rejoin the EU. In NI's case this would be through re-unification, in Scotland's through independence. In the case of the latter, the battles will be fought in the courts. For the former, the battles are likely to be a lot more more literal.

None of this will be good for sterling or sterling denominated assets.

As oil is dollar denominated, the baht's rise will help with this.

How one squares fossil fuels as a 'stranded asset' with a long-term rise in fossil fuel prices, at least without a meaningful global governance structure with an enforcement arm, I cannot get my head around.

In the short term, with the astronomical rise in sea transport, an increase in demand for oil in Europe because Putin is squeezing supply to get his other pipeline approved, all bets are off - except of course they absolutely aren't if you're a day trader (which I'm not).

Still, it is fun to watch if you havent got too much skin in the game!

 

I'm not sure how much further the THB has to climb. Thailand is an export-driven economy, and a strong baht hurts any further export growth.

Since the Asian financial crash of 1997 when the baht more than halved against the dollar, the Bank of Thailand (a very competent institution) took firm control of Thailand's currency. They built up huge foreign reserves through exports and tourism, peaking at $246B in Dec 2020, and kept a tight rein on government borrowing.

The pandemic has changed the BOTs approach - with no foreign currency coming in from tourism and GDP sharply falling, they have let their foreign reserves drop and they have made multiple statements asking the Thai government to borrow more money (issue government bonds) in order to stimulate Thailand's battered economy.

The foreign exchange markets have reacted to government borrowing and falling foreign reserves, and the Thai baht has fallen against other currencies. As things stand, the BOT probably recognise that a weaker baht is beneficial to Thailand in the short to medium term.

I'm not too concerned about the state of the major western economies, post-WW2 they have thrived despite various peaks and troughs. They have probably reached the peak of their reliance on cheap imports and overseas fossil fuels. Over the next couple of decades, home-grown fossil fuels, renewables, nuclear, and a gradual increase in domestic manufacturing will reduce their trade deficits and revive their currencies.

40 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Wont be any travel trends - apart from stagnation - if they don't decide 100% of entry demands and stick to it for tourists to actually plan anything

 

From Link. Krungsri expects Thailand's population to reach 70 per cent vaccination rate by year-end with tourist arrivals forecast maintained at 300,000 this year, 14 million in 2022, 34 million in 2023, and a rebound to pre-pandemic levels of 40 million by 2024.

 

I think a jump from say 100,000 to 14 million in 2023 is optimistic to say the least without restrictions being completely removed, and 34 million in 26 months time is even funnier.

East Asia and ASEAN account for approximately 27m out of their 40m tourists in 2019, but I can't see China opening their borders any time soon, and the ASEAN countries are also being very cautious.

Fortunately for Thailand, long-staying Western tourists spend a lot more money. Not always in hotels and shopping malls where their spending can be easily monitored, but they are what is needed to kick-start the local economy. Remove the restrictions, and they will start coming back.

Time to end this childish obsession with visitor numbers, Thailand.