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3 hours ago, Kopitiam said:

I was correcting "oldcpu" that international travellers do bring in some virus as highlighted by you above. 

You mentioned that the 600 daily tests were targeting mainly those with symptoms (thus cheery picking and missing those who don't show symptoms). And I commented that the positive cases should be even higher (those with symptoms).

You must admit that 13 out of 12,000 is a vanishingly small number. Domestic cases were a lot lower in July, too, but as of today they have 241 cases out of 695 tests. As things stand now, the danger posed by international travellers following the sandbox rules is tiny.

I thought you'd made the post a day or 2 ago, I should have checked the date ???? Yes, you made some good points in that other thread.

On 7/29/2021 at 9:23 AM, Kopitiam said:

How can you say "the international travellers are not bringing the virus" ? when this is reported:

 

"According to the Phuket Sandbox Daily Report for yesterday, issued by the Tourism Authority of THailand (TAT), of the 29 Sandbox arrivals who have tested positive for COVID-19 in Phuket, 13 tested positive on landing at Phuket airport, ...."

 

Well, you cherry picked that quote! What you don't mention is that the article (from the 29th of July) also says that 12,395 people arrived since July 1st.

So 13 out of 12,395 people arrived with the virus.

https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-third-wave-covid-infections-breach-1-000-80849.php

9 hours ago, Will B Good said:

Sorry! But It would take me 10 minutes to come up with a fairer system than "everyone gets the same money".

Well, I'd be interested to see it. I don't think it's as easy as you imagine.

I was once given the task of designing a system to give members of staff at a company a surprise one-off bonus. Seniority and rates of pay were not a factor. Hours worked, number of hours covered for other staff, hours of overtime worked were all stipulated as factors.

No matter what formula I came up with, it was obvious that certain members of staff would feel aggrieved at the outcome - and that included giving everyone the same amount (same for staff working 3 hours a week vs 60 hours a week).

You can guess what ended up happening to the surprise one-off bonus ...

7 minutes ago, Scrotobike said:

I am not looking at the actions of individuals in Phuket, I am questioning the scheme as part of the drive for HiSO $$ at the cost of lives. I do not think the sandbox deserves any praise as it is part of the exchange of lives for $$. It was known at the time that the old die of Covid. Shame on them.

It is Thailand's policy of not prioritizing vaccines for the elderly that has resulted in more deaths. That policy has been in place since the start of the pandemic. Blaming Phuket for this is an unhelpful distraction.

Quote

Government data analysed for the first time by Reuters shows Thailand has fully vaccinated 6.7% of an estimated 10.9 million people 60 and older, compared with 15% of adults aged 18 to 59 and 10.2% of the total population - including children, who are not being vaccinated.

Quote

Thailand was the only one of 30 countries for which Reuters reviewed data that had a lower percentage of seniors vaccinated than those in younger age groups.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-thailands-elderly-lag-behind-covid-vaccination-drive-data-show-2021-08-31/

Just now, Scrotobike said:

It is the deaths caused by Vax redirection to this scheme (the old are only now being vaccinated) vs the few $$ made. In my opinion the puny success of this scheme is and will continue to be negligible and has cost lives.

 

Lives matter no matter how old.

But Thailand haven't been prioritizing the vaccinations of the elderly anywhere in Thailand. The UK started off with the over 85s, then the over 80s (and their caregivers), then the over 75s etc.

Thailand haven't done anything like that. Apart from hospital staff and "VIPs", vaccinations have gone to whoever signed up to a list first or got to the front of a queue.

No system was in place to prioritize the elderly anywhere in Thailand when Phuket got their "extra vaccines". If Phuket had refused to accept them, they would have just gone into the arms of 20-somethings in Bangkok instead.

30 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

considering at least half would probably be thai nationals, I doubt 6,000 long term visitors will make much difference to the thai economy ! Won't even replace the number of expats that die off in a year probably !

According to the numbers in the story, it would be (4,963 + 12,742) = 17,705 long stayers so far. Thai nationals who've spent time abroad are usually wealthier than their domestic counterparts.

Of course, what you say about the TAT's predictions is spot-on.

15 hours ago, Will B Good said:

So a 90 year old who dies would fall into the same category (400,000) as a 28 year old married man with four children (say).

 

Ridiculous 

Most countries are not giving any compensation for vaccine related deaths. Deciding not to give anybody any money is certainly a "fairer" solution.

Thailand may have made many mistakes regarding covid, but offering this compensation isn't a bad idea. It provides a bit of relief for families who have suffered, and helps to encourage vaccine-hesitant people to go ahead with their vaccinations.

There is no possible "perfectly fair" compensation scheme, other than no compensation at all.

22 minutes ago, Liverpool Lou said:

And what an attractive lady you once were, sir.

Oh, you old charmer ????

1 hour ago, Tropicalevo said:

Good question with lots of variables to help to define an answer.

How many of you?

How old? (Older folk - resistance and stamina training is good.)

Do you have children? How old?

Do you have visitors? With families? Neighbours etc?

I built my pool for my wife. Sadly she died before it was finished. In the previous house she would swim in the pool regularly and frequently.

Friends and family visit - all use the pool - I do not. My company manages pool villas and we have to maintain 45 of them! ????

I jump in the pool to cool down usually after I have cooked on the BBQ. I am in for 10 mins max. About once/twice a month on average. Mostly in the hot season - rarely in Oct - Jan. ????

Neighbours that do not have a pool use mine. (Cheaper!)

Of the 45 villas, roughly half are rental. Pools used all of the time - even on one year/long term rentals.

The rest are owner occupier or 'snowbirds'. Most use the pool.

If the pool is only for you then the maintenance is a pain in the buttt.

At the end of the day, it is down to you. Do have have friendly neighbours (like me ????) that would let you use their pool?

If you are ever on Samui, you can always use mine. ????????

Sounds like your pool has a very positive effect on your social life ????

On 9/4/2021 at 8:29 AM, Liverpool Lou said:

Well observed.   I take it that includes yourself.

Well, my profile picture was taken a few years ago ????

On 9/4/2021 at 10:29 AM, Kopitiam said:

If 600 tests are conducted daily and we have more than 200 positive cases daily the past week.  Don't you think its alarming? Or maybe not, the infected people (mostly unvaccinated?) will develop antibody when they recovered.

I definitely think it's alarming. It's likely that many of the tests are being given to people displaying covid symptoms, hence the high numbers.

If Thailand were to test 800,000 people a day like in the UK, the percentage of positive tests would be far lower, although the raw numbers of positive tests would rise.

22 hours ago, Gottfrid said:

And why did you put my name together with another persons post? That also says a lot about you.

When I click reply, it only includes the post I'm responding to, not the one before made by a different person. My post didn't make much sense unless both replies were included, unfortunately I didn't include the other person's name, which I should have done.

My post wasn't criticizing you or anybody else, it was intended as a joke. Don't worry, be happy ????

7 hours ago, Gottfrid said:

Quote

Says he was 49 in UK tabloids.thought it was odd so checked here

 

Why would that be odd?

Anyway, happy to hear Mr. Weller is alright.

Judging by the average poster on Thaivisa, most of the expats in Thailand are miserable old sods, not youthful 49 year-olds ????

On 9/2/2021 at 1:18 AM, Bkk Brian said:

I think your confusing active cases per capita and accumulated cases over the pandemic period.

 

Phuket has obviously been an anomaly against all other Provinces in Thailand, it did not go through the same increase in cases as the rest of Thailand in the 3rd wave as it contained it well. Its only since July that cases started to creep up by communal spread (nothing to do with sandbox).

 

At the beginning of July cases were in the single digits daily then have shown a slow but steady increase to the high of the last couple of days. This goes against all other Provinces which are decreasing, so their total number of cases have been accumulating at a much slower rate. They only went to the 5th highest infected Province per capita on the 31st Aug, you can track back where they were previously here. 

 

Added to this Phuket is the highest vaxxed Province in the whole of Thailand. Hence why I said that obviously their covid deaths will be lower. They've only had 20 covid deaths since 1st April which with a case count of 4,535 makes a covid mortality rate of about 0.48%, very low.

 

As for testing, a media article of one Province does not make a comparison to the other Provinces in Thailand, for that you need to track back each Province testing data here https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/index.php?dashboard=province

 

You can also track back positivity rates per health district here https://djay.github.io/covidthailand/

 

 

I was thinking more in terms of the daily confirmed cases vs the daily confirmed deaths -  cumulative cases/deaths don't tell us what is happening now, as you alluded to in your post.

Thanks for the links, very useful. I had a look at the figures - in the last week, Phuket do appear to have more tests than average, but not way more:

For the last week:

Approximately 600 tests a day in Phuket, 550,000 people (according to the data)

600 / 550000 x 100 = 0.11% of Phuketians tested daily

Approximately 50,000 tests a day in Thailand, 72,000,000 people

50000 / 72000000 x 100 = 0.07% of Thais tested daily

https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/index.php?dashboard=province

Good point regarding the deaths in Phuket being low due to high levels of vaccinations. When I look at covid stats from different countries, I usually regard daily deaths as being more reliable than daily positives (due to varying numbers of tests in each country). However, the high number of vaccinations in Phuket would mean that the opposite is true in this case.

_

21 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

Thai figures do not include loan sharks etc. however. If they did, it is likely they would be on par with or exceed those levels. 

"Public debt" is how we used to describe the "national debt" - how much the government owes.

It has nothing to do with "household debt", which is the category under which loan sharks would fall. Thai household debt is 89.3% of GDP, compared to UK household debt of 96.6% of GDP.

18 hours ago, superal said:

That's the bit that baffles me .

The Thai baht isn't really "strengthening". The pound has gone from 37 baht in August 2019 to (very briefly) 46 baht earlier this month. Now it is 44.93.

Currencies go up and down within short periods of time, hence the jagged graphs.

IMO the pound will be 48-49 this time next year, but there will be lots of ups and downs before then.

4 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Obviously not the 5th in covid deaths. Regards tests you are just speculating. I was giving official figures.

Why is it obvious? There should be a direct link between deaths and infections. I don't know the figures for deaths or infections in Phuket, but it's interesting that my guess that deaths would be lower than infections turned out to be correct.

Certainly the foreigners who have 3 PCR tests in 2 weeks are getting more tests than anyone else in Thailand. There have been various news stories about increased numbers of covid tests in Phuket, like this one.

https://www.thephuketnews.com/more-than-12-000-tested-by-atks-in-phuket-more-than-500-covid-cases-identified-81124.php

9 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Thai tourists to Phuket the 5th most infected Province per capita, highly unlikely.

If Phuket is the 5th most infected province, it's probably because Phuket are doing far more tests than other provinces.

I bet Phuket doesn't have the 5th most covid deaths.

10 hours ago, webfact said:

Domestic tourists will be allowed to enter Phuket on holiday from next Wednesday (Sept 8 ) providing they satisfy certain criteria, including showing proof of hotel or accommodation reservation paid in advance and they must be tested for COVID-19 on Day 5 of their stay if they are staying more than seven days.

So:

1) They don't need to pay 4500 baht up front for 3 PCR tests

2) They don't need to pay to stay in an SHA+ hotel for 14 days

3) They don't need to pay 5000 baht for special Thai covid insurance

Those sound like sensible rules. Why not do the same for their foreign tourists?