Eric Loh

Political expediency by courts in their verdict happened in all countries.

After a decade of insipid and incompetent military government, the fiscal position has weakened badly. The junta government had record budget deficits in relation to GDP and continous account deficits. In 2021, Thailand had a blow-out budget deficit of 7.03%. They are spending more than the country revenues. The country coffers are empty. The present government will have little room to initiate stimulus policies and have to tread carefully not to worsen the debt situation.

The rail link to Laos will have extensive reduction of cargo transport costs by 30-50% and increase the export and import border trade. The construction has been snail pace during Prayut's adminstration.

Common people are not restricted from joining the civil services and uniformed groups. They served the country in their capacity and duly paid in salary and kinds.

EU is Thailand's fourth largest trading partner and the bilateral trade was worth around USD$38 B last year. Re-routing costs, war risk insurance rates jump, supply disruption costs will be affect Thai economy. Somehow Red Sea crisis hasn't hit energy; yet.

I will be surprise if the opposition think out loud that Sretha government has a good strategy. They not called the opposition for nothing.

January 31 is the judgement date for Pita and the party not this case which he likely to be acquitted.

Perhaps food for thought re oil pipeline; not the Chinese bit. At the moment Singapore banned VLCC and ULCC from entering its ports. A portion of the Malacca Straits (Phillip Channel) is quite shallow which limits the size of ships over 200 thousands dwt to pass through. The land bridge will not replace the Malaca straits but will offer an alternative route for the larger ships and for the IndoChina and West China hinterland.

Your misconception mirrored Trump's claim that EV is a hoax. Can't say about you but we know Trump has a low IQ.

All these GOP candidates like Hailey, Desantis, Vivek are cut from the same cloth who fail to called Trump out and who are all trying to do the same Maga thing. None have a chance with the independents and the election. Republican Party need a complete overhaul and exorcise the stench of Maga and serve the country rather than for one man. Then maybe a reformed Rep Party will have a chance in the 2028 election.

The visa announcement was from both sides. Bit too hasty to draw conclusion. Thailand has live in a bubble for a decade whereby Prayut limited overseas sojourn due to his lack of vision, language and competency. Srettha meeting global corporate leaders and governments and pitching for FDI should be applauded and not doubted. https://www.china-briefing.com/news/china-and-thailand-to-waive-visa-requirements-permanently-from-march/

Polls are questionable. More can be extract from events on the streets. So far most anti Thaksin yellow shirts and actvisits have stayed out from the streets. Even serial social activist Srisuwan Janya has not directly filed court petition on Thaksin and rather accused Department of Correction of abusing power. All understand that the pardon is royally endorsed and will be fateful to protest. People has got over Thaksin and there will be no political tsunami as a serial Thaksin critic tried to frame. I believe that Thaksin will get a role in the government probably as an adviser. A decade of economic mismangement by the incompetent generals have put Thailand in a bad spot and Thaksin's contribution will be constructive. If this government can reverse the current economic poor state and the population livelihood, the subject surrounding Thaksin will fade into the background. Thailand need decades of peace and elected governments to resuscitate the economy.

In my opinion, the CC will dissolve MFP and impose a political ban on Pita for 5-10 years but allowed party MPs 60 days to migrate to other parties or register a different party. The CC has always send a strong message when adjudicating this kind of case. We have seen this before when TRT and PPP were dissolved. There will be sporadic limited protests but not prolonged. MPF followers are mostly young educated working supporters and lack charismatic leaders to lead the protests. They also lack resources and fundings like the Red or yellow shirts. Above all they don't have an exit plan like the yellow shirts with the military coming in on the pretext of restoring peace. Thaksin tried to attack the established structures and paid the price. The new MFP may have to do the same.

I have very little doubt that the government will proceed with the mining. Lithium is just too important as an integral component of the national strategy to made Thailand a major hub for EV production. The prospecting for Lithium started in 2019 in Ruang Kiet when Pan-Asia was awarded propsecting licences covering 38 sq meters open pit mines. The current Industry minister have already tasked the Primary Industries and Mining to speed up the exploration of potential lithium resoruces. For now the exploration is in Ruang Kiet and Bang E-tham. The government can only say that the technologies to be employed will reduce the impact on the evironment and local resident health. That will be left to be seen.

If you noticed, the subject of Thaksin's parole and hospitalization have not generated much interest in the media and on the street. It does seem that Thais have finally accepted the fact that the last 2 decades of colours hostilities and seizures of legimately elected governments were instigated by powerful personalities which have since passed and about maintaining the status quo. Perhaps the misfortune of Pita by the neo-conversative senators have opened their eyes that he was too victim of the establishment's reaction when challenged and not much about corruption. Thais will be happy with the easing of tension between the colours and the military.

Just out of curiosity, what will happen if PTP decide not to form the alternative coalition. The junta form a minority government and chaos in the House and probably in the streets. Unstable government, disfunction legislative house and economy stagnated in this troubled times. Another election and further financial drain and same results as the appointed senators are still involved in the voting. Is it worth it?

He was given a royal pardon. No yellow shirts protest. PAD leaders acquited. Coup general promoted. End of story. Why so much conversation over him which none will make an iota of difference. Be glad that there will be no color shirts chaos and coups in the near future. Move on.

Trickle down is when you cut tax & regulations for the corporations and wealthy and they spend more and trickle down to the people. This is more a multiplier generated by spending numerous times. In my opinion, the cash handout programs should not only be targeted but in tranches rolled out in 3 years to lessen the debt problem and to evaluate the effectiveness.

I can't state catergorically that all Thais have mobile phone but there are 126.41 million mobile phones actvely connected which averages to 1.8 mobile phones per person. All parties campaigned with promises of stimulus packages to win over the voters.

Internal fighting and 2 sacked MPs not good optics for MFP.

Poor landless farmers are happy but not the hard to please guests of the country.

The country’s first female leader was found guilty of negligence Really up to the court to interprete negligence and can easily be influenced by political expediency at that time. It is an unusual case to be found guilty of a crime over a matter of policy implementation. Ahbisit and Prayut had many policies that can be classified as negligence resulting in losses and corruptions. Both will never see a day in court for negligence.

The 250 military appointed senators were legal and constitutional. What illegal was the 2014 coup which gave raise to the 2017 constitution. Fortunately the senator appointment was only transitory provision of the constitution and tenured for 5 years.

Is Thaksin a peacemaker? There are others powerful figures involved in the peaceful transfer of power and next 4 years. Is he stirring up that politics? Haven't seen any significant political movement. Most don't see this as an issue.

by loads of hot air as usual. By Nov more of the Maga diehards will have enough of his bs and stay home.