bkkcanuck8

5 hours ago, Xonax said:

And it´s still not difficult to find a condo selling for the old 2019 "bargain" price ????. They still believe, that foreign buyers will soon be coming to save the real estate market.

I have my doubts, not enough of a discount for a market that will not have the influx of foreigners -- enough to support a sudden burst of buyers...   There are probably a number of distressed sellers waiting for the chance to dump their property so many of those may also be talking up the market.

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I don't find any need to mention what my family and I have done in the previous year and a half to help our local communites. I find it a bit distastefull. A little like giving to charity and advertizing the fact. However you carry on.

I am actually of two minds on this one. 

I don't mention what I do with regards to charity because ... to be quite honest it always feels I could do more than I do...  I have have no issue recognizing others (including family) generosity when I feel they have gone above average.

However if mentioning it publicly (as long as you keep the person you have helped private) encourages at least one other person to also be more generous, then it has had a possible effect on society and I have no issue with issuing a challenge in a way.   I shy away from being too public about anything personal, but then that is who I am.

11 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I wish I knew too. There is evidence that delta surges through a country and then just as quickly surges back down without any one particular measure that can be identified to say why that was. India, Indonesia now as well, however I just saw this tweet that seems to give that a little more weight:

 

Again and again, Delta soars quickly and then plummets. Delta's so bad it necessitates action that brings levels down, coupled with underlying transmission dynamics. In some countries, lockdowns, in others vaccination, in other a mix of many means of mitigation.

Uganda

Namibia, all about a 2 month surge:

So lets all hope that will be the case here. Like any rational risk assessment, prepare for the worst but hope for the best.

 

 

 

 

You have posted two countries from Africa, home to Lambda...  Do you have a matching graph for the Lambda variant for those two countries?  (is it the virus going down, or Delta losing to another variant such as Delta+ or Lambda)

5 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Thanks.  Obviously what you have written makes sense.  But it doesn't answer my question: when will it (the current lockdown) end?  I'm not suggesting opening up the country fully to tourists and fully opening up the nightlife, but allowing day to day life for most people to get back to normal.  Macrohistory suggests "many months to come" - but how many?  What do you consider to be an acceptable level of infections and deaths per day to be?  After all, the UK has opened up and still has a similar rate to Thailand.  Waiting for Thailand to be fully vaccinated will mean waiting years and could never happen anyway.

With the failure worldwide to manage the virus, I think eradication is a pipe-dream, and there will be future variants that hopefully will continue to be ones that the vaccines will continue having to some effect on.   The focus on lock-downs has to be more granular, which means making sure testing/tracking/tracing is first rate.  Lock-downs function has to be primarily to control the outbreak enough to keep the healthcare system from collapsing.  Assuming the vaccines have some immunity it should go a long way to keeping people out of the hospitals and hopefully keeping the healthcare system from collapsing. 

The first step is to make sure everyone that is not rejecting the vaccine outright is vaccinated, those that outright reject it ... that is on them... and we will have to live with it.  mRNA vaccines are actually a huge improvement in vaccine development in that it 'skips a step' (you don't have to 'culture' (not sure the word to use) then inactivate a live virus for use in a vaccine, but work with the 'blueprint' (which can be transmitted to manufacturers around the world) to create updated vaccines (speeding any vaccine to market - will also be useful for flu and other viruses).  On a regular basis (yet to be determined) people will have to get updated/booster shots to cover new variants of COVID. 

The behaviour of people will have to adjust some of our custom norms, probably more like asian/japanese norms (no handshakes / bow (yay, it is a family trait and comes naturally to me), wearing a mask when you are sick, wearing a mask when you are flying on a petri dish in the sky). 

Society will have to learn to live with the new normal...  (which will still have a dampening effect on the economy for sometime).

He might have been lucky to be 'enshared by the PI'.  You con 5 women of status, who then lost face.... you might have that one hire a PI, but another pay a bit less and have him assassinated.  ????

3 minutes ago, buick said:

israel has the same issue that many nations face, not everyone is willing to take the vaccine.  so they have a third wave and more people will die.  the vaccines should keep the death numbers well below those experienced in the previous two waves.

Israel actually is a little lower than Canada is for vaccination... and Canada had a much later start (about 4 months after US).  If I remember/understood correctly from my fb newsfeed, certain religious sects within Israel are less likely to be vaccinated.  They were referred to as 'Charedi' which I had to search and find (what I suspected) referred to as what is most commonly called in North-America as 'Ultra-Orthodox' (obviously my Judaic knowledge is limited) [also called Heredi].  Israel also has a more mono-vaccinated population than most (Pfizer), I would think variety would be better in some cases as different vaccines would have different strengths/weaknesses.

2 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

Another flat day suggesting we have reached the peak and with the falling numbers in Bangkok, all bodes well going forwards with reason for optimism. 
 

The opening for peak season seems on track and will be a mighty relief for all the struggling and desperate Thais. 
 

 

You sound like an optimist, others sound like a pessimist, me I am more of a realist (somewhere in-between).  Let's hope the optimist is right this time.

On 8/8/2021 at 9:32 AM, placeholder said:

So much for the statisitics and the laws of probability. According to your way of thinking, Public Health isn't a thing. And the R(0) factor is a myth.

Are you talking about 'R not' or R₀?  It is not a factor nor a myth, it represents the basic reproduction number -- which is the number of secondary infections generated from an initial case at the beginning of an epidemic.  R_t is basically the same value at another point of time in the epidemic.  It is a function and like any function there are multiple variables that the function is made of -- as such it can be affected by efforts to combat the spread such as masks, keeping ones distance, etc.  If you can adjust the variables so that R₀ or R_t falls below one, then the total number of cases drop and the pandemic eventually ends if it is consistently is held below one everywhere.

6 minutes ago, Macrohistory said:

 

All the countries that got an early start on vaccination will now face the problem of waning efficacy, especially when confronting Delta.  I believe Israel is now starting to offer vaccinated elderly people and those with preexisting health conditions booster shots.  The U.S. will probably soon do the same.  Meanwhile, the data continue to show that vaccinated people may well contract COVID but they will be much, much less likely to get seriously ill and die.  Any anti-vaxxer who wants to use this new CDC advice as a tool to bash vaccines has their head screwed on backwards.

 

"waning efficacy" - efficacy use is generally used to describe the ability of the vaccine to produce a result, I think you meant waning immunity.  Data currently out there is that the currently the use of the vaccine is still providing long term and continued protection.  Immuno-compromised (most often from drugs that suppress the immune system because of things like transplants, cancer treatment, etc.) may require additional shots to help them get or maintain.  If you receive a vaccine to tell your immune system to recognize a given virus, and you are also suppressing the immune system so it does not damage you by attacking what it should not attack, then logically they would never get the same level of protection as someone who is not, so the use of a 3rd shot to either continue boosting or maintaining is a reasonable investment (it is a rather small subset of the population percentage-wise).

18 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

As I said believe what you will. You trust the government, I don't.

Who said I trust the government?  Massive conspiracies are not that easy to do -- even in countries like Thailand.  If it is one grand conspiracy to redefine the criteria, you will see the government getting egg on their face shortly.  There is a whole reporting chain so too many people can compare their region against what the central authorities are reporting - and that includes enough people who are not necessary loyal to the current government.

1 minute ago, cyril sneer said:

19,xxx again

 

what are the odds!

If you don't have all the variables, you cannot calculate the odds. 

Regardless of local pandemic state, people are not going to get on big petri dishes in the sky and fly (a lot of flights go through a 3rd hub) all the way to Thailand for a vacation.  There will likely be a long time til the air industry itself recovers worldwide - not just flights to Thailand because people's behaviour has been altered.  During the pandemic, flying has become even more of a hassle with PCR tests, potential quarantines both going and returning to Thailand.   The people that would be the most likely to fly to Thailand at this point would be those that stay here for long stretches of time (snowbirds, retirees, digital non-nomadic nomads working remotely, etc.). That being said, they could change things at least temporarily to remove some of the impediments:

• implementing 6 month visa-waiver with unlimited extensions
• temporary reprieve from 3 month deposit rules, drop 90 day reporting
• replace registering where you are staying once when you extend or land
• implement a non-subsidized base public [private you have to pay more] healthcare system for people staying here long term [based on actuarial and estimated cost with a slight surcharge which is adjusted based on revenue needed... basically the same standard as the 30baht healthcare Thais receive -- but fully funded

It will not help too much, but when you have low demand you make adjustments - and right now you just have to be seen as welcoming. 

You can test people on landing for COVID, have them stay near one location for 5 days - then have the local authorities stop by for a second test.

19 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

Good post. Yes you may well be right but they desperately need a high season. 
 

Just seen some videos posted by a friend in Pattaya of the lines of people sitting queuing at Bali Hai for  handouts. Hundreds of them. 
 

They need tourism back sooner rather than later. 

You are right of course, the problem though is that I don't think it will recover fully for a long time, and there will have to be adjustments... but then there is the personal side where people only know what they know and when there is a sudden change to the economy (and you are living week to week or day to day as many are even in good years) - you fall and without a helping hand getting back to a point where you are self-sufficient seems insurmountable.  It is in these times that people should take extra care to go out of their way to help out, even if it is making sure to continue to visit little shops, one person businesses, specific food stalls just going a little out of your way and helping a couple people.   Then there is little things like contributing or helping out when local Thai friends are doing their charitable duties.    I have to admit, I could always be more charitable...  I know my parents are more charitable than I am (by far),  the largest being sponsoring a Vietnamese refugee family who lived in house for 18 months while they (had sufficiently large house that making a portion of it with enough privacy for the family was doable).   (the government of Canada promised to match private sponsorships at that time - and my parents figured it was time for them to step up... as many did ... so much so the government 'adjusted' the promise to cap it at 25,000 maximum matching at the time).

3 hours ago, Kwaibill said:

Where is my promised jab?

Oh, forgot. Govern mental (sic) promise.

What promised jab?  The Aug 1st signup invitations to the jab party - were suppose to possibly start going out on/after Wednesday this week (and no promise they will send them all out on Wednesday or actually a stated date that all will have been sent). 

4 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Amazing, last year in Phuket they had the harshest lockdown in Thailand when there was less cases. We were not allowed out for 6 weeks, curfew and could not venture out of sub districts. Military manning the road blocks, headman delivering food, eggs, etc to houses including us. 
 

It worked and cases were brought down to zero, I know this was a different variant then but that’s what Phuket in my opinion needs again now before the spread is worse than ever.

 

The vaccines do not seem to be having much impact here or if they are then I hate to think what the cases would be without them.

Phuket is large enough that 61 cases is manageable to contain without a city-wide lockdown (maybe more granular lock-downs would suffice if there were specific problem areas).  Part of it would depend on the type of cases (linked/unlinked community spread, increased testing in problem areas, tracking and tracing [which Thailand has been able to do fairly well in the past], and strict mask mandates.  Actually large swaths of the red/orange etc. areas should be controllable (the vast majority of Thailand).  Bangkok and region and a few other though have unfortunately gone past that point and may require a period of disruption to normal life.

I have seen that the Delta variant, because it is more communicative, could require more like 80% immunized to reach herd immunity -- and Phuket I suspect is below that level still.

1 hour ago, Kadilo said:

New cases possibly peaked, seeing deaths rates possibly starting to fall, vaccinations being stepped up. 
 

Would not be surprised to see to it fully open for high season. I’m sure that will be their  target before the country is ruined and the death count will be higher from starving desperate Thais as opposed to a virus. 

I would be very surprised to see it fully open before high season (which is December+).  I do not see the government taking sufficient action to bring the case count down to nominal before sometime next year (hopefully the first quarter or two).  They keep giving either unrealistic expectations, and I do not see them meeting their stated expectations (over promise, under deliver seems to be the current government's new motto).  Even if they were to bring it under control, the tourism industry will not recover immediately, and likely won't return to the new normalcy for maybe at least a couple years after the pandemic world wide (which will be much less than what it was before).   Hopefully, this will refocus efforts of the government to diversify the economy a little more... Thailand's international tourism industry is too large for the country as a whole and relying on it has detrimental effect on the environment and culture (probably could have higher before doing so if it were better managed).

25 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

Good call. 
 

Would leave even more for the Thai citizen's then to get an improved vaccine. 
 

Disgraceful that countries may be binning over supply when there are still countries that could do with a boost b

What is the source of this 'binning' story?  What state is the vaccine in?  How long til it expires?  Is this binning opened vaccines, opened packs, (one vial contains 10 doses; 1 pack contains 195 vials).  A pack would be shipped in a container that serves as a temporary ultra-cold freezer (-70C) and the dry ice must be replenished regularly.  If shipped from the manufacturer directly, it can be packed on and loaded on a flight and arrive, but to collect these already distributed vaccines, merge them, probably cannot verify that the vaccines vials of an open pack have not been compromised -- then you get into a situation were maybe one vial is good and another not so much.  The US is donating ordered vaccines that are coming from the manufacturer but will not be needed within the time allocated... but I think you may not be getting the whole story (or the writer is not understanding the whole story) about what is binned and why and in what condition...

Once a vial has been breached it has to be used in a short period of time or the rest of the doses are lost, in fact in some regions when there was a priority list and you were not that priority... you could get a vaccine if you put yourself on a shortlist of people that could show up at a moments call so that doses in one vial were not lost.

3 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

Not sure I understand it but as someone else mentioned, no blue.  And, I would assume at least half and possibly the majority of 2 shot folks are Sinovac as most people seem to be waiting for their second Astrazenica.  So, is this evidence that Sinovac  (2 shots) is in fact preventing death?

I had no doubt of that (though Bangkok area is prioritized as AZ for first shot, and Sinovac the second shot; provinces the reverse)....  The evidence is that it is not as effective, but being partially effective is very likely to have a greater impact on the severity and thus the mortality rate.  A vaccine does not prevent infection, it prepares your immune system to recognize the virus and thus the speed at which it is able to fight off the infection... which typically means less likely to have symptoms, and much less likely to have severe symptoms (and since the Delta sheds in 4 days, potentially does not stop the spread of the virus as much as other vaccines).   The evidence of this is the 600+ medical staff getting infected after receiving full vaccination... and having medical staff infected and either being a spreader or at risk and thus potentially leading to a collapsing healthcare system -- very problematic.

26 minutes ago, mtraveler said:

Nice that it reminds you of that.  But they're not the same.  That's a false equivalency.  

 

Wrong?  Well, that's your opinion. 

 

As a taxpaying American, MY opinion is this:  I think there's some merit to my being allocated a vaccine, inasmuch as it's a small percentage of what is being donated, and it would be nice if some of the donated vaccine were allocated to us citizens.  Were there sufficient good quality vaccine here, that would be a different story, and I'd wait my turn for something offered to me. 

 

In addition, most of us foreigners are either over 60 (which I am), have risk factors, or both.  I've waited a long time for an opportunity to get the vaccine, and still waiting.  So, this to me seems fair.  

It is my opinion as well.  Everyone that chose to move to Thailand for whatever reason from our original (I will use United States in this thread - but it extends to all countries) country, chose to leave the United States and live under the rules, and regulations of Thailand.  You have that freedom to leave your country and do, but once you leave the borders of the US and move permanently to another country - you are choosing to live under that local jurisdiction (Thailand).   There is no medical priority of because you are an expat you have a higher priority, and any deviation from those medically decided prioritization are wrong...  US has no authority or responsibility for people living under another countries jurisdiction, though the US through it's embassy may exert pressure to make sure you are treated fairly and equal to a local citizen.  There is also a concept political of reciprocity, where the US does something for foreign nationals and can pressure foreign countries for similar treatment (it is under this that foreign diplomats generally were prioritized -- mainly since by sending them on a foreign post -- they are responsible to ensure they are safe -- and you cannot close an embassy or foreign mission and have everyone work from home). 

So there you have an example of hypocrisy generally speaking, there is talk of vaccines should be prioritized based on medical conditions and vulnerability... but then they want to change the priority to favor themselves and use other criteria such as nationality which is not a medical criteria to push themselves up as they see themselves deserving of special treatment by right of birth.

---

You should be treated equal to a Thai over 60 that has risk factors, it is medical criteria that must determine access to vaccines in Thailand.  Once you chose to live in Thailand, you chose to live under that jurisdictions laws and regulations.  The US has no responsibility to extend social programs (free vaccination is socialized medicine) to foreign jurisdictions.  If you want to be prioritized to the same as the US, you should take a PCR test, put on an N95 mask and hop on a plane and go home.

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

You don't seem to understand life expectancy statistics. Life expectancy of 78 years is at birth. 

If someone is already 77, their life expectancy is not 78, it is much higher. 

Yes, it is arbitrary, just like someone picking 55+ is arbitrary.  Absurd misuse of math deserves and absurd misuse of math in response.

1 hour ago, jazzdog32095 said:

That's as wrong and twisted as anything I've heard ever. Lets play God and while we're at let's call Soylent Industries to come pick up your over the hill Mom and Dad, a couple aunts and uncles, and have them returned as a box of Soylent Green. Dude, seek some help.

Oh, I can be much more twisted, I can see humour in pretty much anything as humans generally are absurd quite often.   Any time you make life and death decisions in areas where you have a shortage, you are playing god... and that happens every day in the area of medicine...  The US healthcare system is rationed based on affordability, most other western countries are rationed based on agreed upon criteria on who they think deserves treatment (kidneys, hearts, etc.) and who does not - effectively rationed based on some made up criteria.   What I was responding to was effectively an abuse of math, where did the 55+ years come into play (I can only guess the person was greater than age 55 and less than 60), what rational was this age to split into two groups... in effect the purpose was first you had a conclusion they wanted to back up with some math and then through together some math to 'prove' their point.   Yes, vaccines are in short supply in Thailand, and MEDICAL professionals have to make life and death decisions on the prioritization of those vaccines... as ethically as they could...  I am fine and support professionals making those decisions and I have often said on many forums that people will just have to wait in line for their turn based, not try to jump ahead of Thais (as many were calling for earlier).  That said, you have made some fundamental mistakes ... Soylent Green should only be made of humans in their prime or at least the majority of it...  As far as COVID and aunts and uncles... well, I have mostly aunts very few uncles... and I have lost two of them to COVID....    Life is often absurd, humour is the only way to stay sane when the world goes insane.

4 hours ago, jazzdog32095 said:

I'll make it simple to understand and then you decide. In the US since 01/01/2020 till 07/31/2021.

Covid killed 606000 and of that 560000 were 55+ meaning 46K were less than 55.

If it was Big Foot ready to kill you are you going shoot it in the arm or head? Over 55 has affected 12:1 over 55 and under. Immunizing that group first is a no-brainer. Do the math , you have 100 jabs.

Give 50 to each group, the 50 to the under 55 group saves 1.25 lives, the 50 you give to 55+ saves 46.25 lives. A combined 47.5 lives. Give all 100 to the 55+ and 92 lives are saved. Point is to save the lives first and work your way to the least affected. Your implying an unfathomable change in infections that more than likely affect both groups. Spending limited jabs on the 8% and not the 92% is plain foolish. 

If you are going to silly math then maybe you should calculate the number of years saved ????  Average life expectancy (both sexes) in Thailand is a little less than 78, so if the person is 75 then you are saving only 30 years for that ten individuals.  Hmmm... I am sure there are some young people of lets say 30 years that if you saved one for those 10, you have saved more life years...   Math can be abused.  (I won't even get into weighting it by average productivity / contribution to society - which takes place for most people before 65; with the exceptions that take an active interest in charitable activities in their retirement). 

Vaccination is as much about trying to get to the point of herd immunity, and having society return to some level of normalcy (for economic reasons) as it is about protecting those that are at risk.