placnx

7 hours ago, DaLa said:

That is what the plan should be and should be the WHO’s role. However given that agreements between countries can take years to finalise and not all countries will join, I can with almost certainty say that it will be nearly impossible to implement. Think of countries that hold databases already and the error rates, add the  logistical problems of maintaining a record of even half the worlds population.

WHO or certain capable countries could help countries with low digital capability, so Singapore could take care of any Asian countries that needed help, while South Africa could do the same for Sub-Saharan countries, and so forth.

8 hours ago, hotchilli said:

India produce around 60% of the worlds vaccines, don't know why Thailand didn't look to them a long time ago.

Even India cannot produce enough vaccine for the whole world.

8 hours ago, NorthernRyland said:

Why do we want to vaccinate kids? They're basically immune and in fact I think COVID is less dangerous for under 18's than flu is.

Regrettably kids are not immune.

9 hours ago, wordchild said:

one big issue here is , what about  kids? they cant get vaccinated.

ie Will families with kids still have to quarantine? Including those of us who live in Thailand and may wish to travel abroad and then return to Thailand?   Or will it be sufficient just for the adult members of the family to  have been vaccinated? 

 No families will come unless this is resolved. 

Single adult males only. Just like the old days!

Certainly there will be followup trials for children since recent variants are infecting them at a higher rate.

35 minutes ago, ChouDoufu said:

 

cards

card readers

database

done.

 

it's not like we gotta reinvent the wheel.  credit cards, passports, id cards - the technology is already available.  you can even add blockchain if you wanna sound hip.

 

your card data will hold your personal information, date of initial vaccination and all boosters, vaccine version, manufacturer, lot number, facility giving the injections...scanned into the system from the barcodes on the vials.

 

the who can maintain the database with the various vaccines using information supplied by the manufacturers. 

Yes, I posted about the data to enter back in a discussion around September. Also, my idea about blockchain was to ensure that distribution would be transparent, that vaccines were likely authentic. The databases should be national. A physical card would be better than the high tech plastic since it could function better in a low tech environment. This is a pandemic.

1 hour ago, Netzero said:

Here is a novel idea for Novel Coronavirus....Thailand approve Moderna and Pfizer, allow private hospitals to buy and distribute to supplement the gov't initiative  with the Oxford vaccine, speed up the vaccination program and allow vaccinated travelers to enter without more than a 4 day quarantine and a negative COVID test. Just got back from Mae Hong Son - it is a ghost town like so many other places in Thailand - people are really suffering under the current government approach with no real vaccination effort in sight for months - a novel idea is needed now

It's wonderful to have more vaccines, but it will be quite a while until existing orders are filled. The reality is that world production capacity is quite insufficient. Bottlenecks!

2 hours ago, SomchaiCNX said:

Thank you, I should do something like this but I'm not a huge smartphone user. ????

 

You are right. There needs to be a physical card that even someone in a remote village can have, where cell service is limited. But the card can be read through a QR code unique to the individual by health workers, immigration, etc.

4 hours ago, SomchaiCNX said:

This year I needed a tetanus and a rabies booster as they (my hospital) could not find the records. Asked them if I was up to date with my others but they could not answer that as well. While in the military I had a card that was carried on person and up to date with all injections and vaccines. Even a dog has his own small little book nowadays. Now I have nothing regarding vaccines, but a different book for blood thinners another for allergies and a blood donor card from the red cross. 

The new WHO vaccination card should accommodate all vaccinations. These should show on the physical card. Testing could be confined to the digital record.

7 hours ago, jonclark said:

Well lets just hope that Covid doesn't turn out to be one of those pesky influenza type viruses that rapidly evolves and mutates, so that a new vaccine is required every year, otherwise this proposal probably won't work, as it would require the production / updating of a new passport every year. 

 

I mean there is only one strain of covid isn't there? (rhetorical question). 

Airlines will probably have to check your vaccination record when you make a reservation. Answer may come back that you need a booster.

9 hours ago, internationalism said:

high season is winter time, not spring (too hot in thailand) or summer-autumn (rainy season). Even if not 10-14 days quarantine in thailand, tourists will have it in return to their countries (already to the UK, and now also to the USA).

 

before jumping into unknown, stick to the old ideas:

 

travel corridors with not infected countries. That first would be Asian countries, short, continental flights, allowing shortish stays, group travel and cheap enough for family holidays. China is the main country to have ready traffic, with korea, india following.

 

develop local tourism (the international one is 12% of gdp, domestic one 6% - not huge, but able to sustain)

 

limited quarantine on islands - beach resorts with 1km radius of free movement, after short time allowing on

all island, later to anywhere

 

in the meantime offer quarantine at cheap hotels hotels with less stringent health regulations. Starting from 1000b per night, allowing budget travellers (that price was offered for thai repatriating the last year, who didn't want to stay in military barracks).

 

 

Travel corridors haven't worked well so far, but in the future, even after digital WHO cards are used, some countries may differentiate between passengers arriving from countries where the virus in "under control" and others. There may be differing degrees of checking passengers depending on the probability that they might be infected.

21 minutes ago, connda said:

Why not a full hazmat suit.  The airlines could make a killing by requiring hazmat suits if the get into the business of supplying them at the airport (HAZMAT REQUIRED  $300 per day)

A lot of airlines require masks, and I believe that Qatar Airway requires face shields as well.

10 hours ago, ChouDoufu said:

 

something like this?  maybe updated as a plastic card with embedded chip?

 

This is not enough of a solution. It needs a whole digital infrastructure to verify the document's authenticity, the continuing effectiveness of the vaccination, etc

13 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

From the WHO website

WHO | International certificate of vaccination or prophylaxis

This is the old form now. Estonia is working now on a new one.

10 hours ago, Oldie said:

Okay - vaccinated people can come without quarantine. What will happen if they are here? Do they have to expect the same limitations as not vaccinated people here? Can they enjoy a soapy massage and not vaccinated people not? Can they drink alcohol when and wherever they want? And endless other things. How will this be? A two class society? 

 

And how do they check if the vaccination (still) protects? 

 

The digital WHO card is not the end. We have to have up to date information about individual vaccines, about when they may start to stop giving protection, as you say. Presumably only vaccinated tourists will be visiting, those whose jabs are still working.

10 hours ago, kevin612 said:

This is insane, passengers may get the Covid in the airport. 

It's would be a good idea to wear a mask, N95 if you can get, plus lab goggles in the airport and on the flight.

11 hours ago, yeahbutif said:

I think the passport Idea is very good.but the thing I see is who issue them.As we all know a false piece of paper can easily be obtained in most countries.for a price.not even having a test.i reckon

There are at least two private projects, but these would not be practical except for transatlantic flights. Really the solution has to be multinational by governments, so WHO is the obvious candidate. WHO has asked Estonia to develop a new WHO card:

https://www.euro.who.int/en/countries/estonia/news/news/2020/10/estonia-and-who-to-work-together-on-digital-health-and-innovation

But the authenticity must be verifiable digitally. I have no idea whether this Estonian will fit the bill.

11 hours ago, NorthernRyland said:

COVID is already in Thailand and probably has been for months. They're fooling themselves if they think tourists are going to make the situation worse.

 

How is being vaccinated different from already having COVID? You can still carry the virus either way I believe.

People from South Africa or elsewhere could bring that variant which is much worse, so there is a point to control entry.

As for herd immunity by infection, if that's what you're implying, immunity may be fleeting compared to  immunity by vaccination.

13 hours ago, webfact said:

Dr. Kiat said the centre will decide whether the third stage of the trial can be skipped, depending on technical data available at the time.

Perhaps this is another way of saying that the project can be abandoned after second phase if those results are not productive.

2 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Political calculation that taking Taiwan by force is high risks in terms of casualties and international condemnation in form of trade sanctions. Considering that the Taiwanese are fiercely nationalistic, China may win the battle but will inherit as long fight and ravaged economy. But should Taiwan declared independence and re-write the constitution, all bets are off.  

There was a status quo where Taiwan would be left alone unless it declared independence. That has changed with Xi. With the situation in HK, popular opinion in Taiwan is increasingly uninterested in any association with China in the future. The US stance is a reaction to repressive and aggressive Chinese behavior.

For now the EU is disunited, but they have strategic interests that may trump the economic temptations of the Chinese market.

19 hours ago, rickudon said:

Various denial posts in this thread. First, how deadly is coronavirus? In Europe, many countries already have a national death rate of 0.1%; the uncertain factor is how many have actually had the virus already. In the UK some random tests put this rate at about 12%. If we assume you need at least 50% of the population to have had the virus to get even close to herd immunity, about 4 times more people will die - As the UK is close to 100,000 dead already, that means about 400,000 dead - but if you need more than 50% getting the virus to get herd immunity, death toll could be higher - maybe about 600,000 (we are not considering vaccination in this). So the final death toll without vaccination could become close to 1% of the population. So your average risk of death is not one in a million, but one in a hundred. Death rates per 1,000  in hospital is about 10 (1%). Overall deaths from Covid are about 14 per 1,000 known infections (1.4%) This is higher because because those in nursing homes may never get hospital treatment (yes, triage already happening, unofficially). Was Spanish flu worse? Maybe not. UK official death toll was 228,000. Covid-19 Pandemic is still going strong, this figure could be beaten.

 

Anecdotally, i know of 4 Covid deaths in the UK - 2 relatives, one in his 80's and a Nursing home, one 73 and previously quite healthy. My ex-wife lost one friend last week and my son a work colleague the week before - both still in their 50's. Just because Thailand has been lucky so far doesn't mean it will continue to be - Eastern Europe was only slightly affected in the 1st wave last spring, but they are catching up fast this winter.

 

The Astra-Zeneca vaccine is of slightly older provenance than the MRA vaccines like Moderna, the technique was used for the Ebola vaccine for instance. And since SARS, a lot of work has been done on coronaviruses and potential vaccines. So the steps to take were quite well understood.

 

Finally, i was curious as to the list of countries India is giving the vaccine to - some have very low coronavirus rates - why were they prioritised? They were small countries, like Maldives, Seychelles and Bhutan - I think they were chosen for advanced testing - to see if the vaccine actually stops transmission - the countries can be vaccinated very quickly as not many vaccines doses needed, and as infection rates currently low there will be time to find out if the virus is actually stopped - in large, heavily infected countries how can you tell if new infections come from infected people or vaccinated people who are just symptomless? Pakistan, Bangladesh understandable as they border India.

Due to the greater infectiousness of the UK variant, in the US epidemiologists are saying vaccination of 80% of the population might be needed for herd immunity. I suppose that this assumes that immunity after an infection is not long-lasting. That is not good news considering your analysis of death rate based on the 50% figure.

In Bhutan which has a population of somewhat over 700,000, I hope that they try out different schedules for administering the second dose, since vaccine supply is limited, so it will take a long time to vaccinate the world as things stand.

Unless vaccine production is greatly increased, plus raw materials and equipment to administer the vaccines, we might have to start giving boosters before the first round in completed elsewhere.

On 1/23/2021 at 4:30 PM, Proboscis said:

In fairness to federal workers of all kinds, it is standard procedure to refer all inquiries from journalists to the press office of the organization. Otherwise, you become a whistle-blower with all the ramifications that has for you, your career, your family and your friends.

 

As a whistle-blower in the USA Federa government service, be prepared for investigation by any of a number of law enforcement agencies, including the FBI, be prepared for your home to be "tossed," for hateful and wrong stories to be aired about you in the press. And woe betide you if anything, and I mean anything, you said to a reporter or anyone else appears in something resembling a classified document. By the time you get in front of a congressional subcommittee, you may have spent time in prison and will very likely be both bankrupt and unemployable.

 

Now, tell me that you will talk to the press about such matters!

In the US, people speak on condition of anonymity, just because of the reasons you cited. There have been contentious instances in the Trump era where the Dems were shielding identity of whistleblowers from Republican colleagues so that whistleblower's identity would not become public.

In this narrative, all the CDC people questioned by Reuters, who declined to comment and referred Reuters to the CDC press office, should now be questioned, interrogated, by Congress!

Whoever made the "ethical" judgment that cancelled testing for asymptomatics should be sent for advanced ethics training. Their ridiculous decisions based on superficial ethical criteria probably caused many deaths.