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mfd101

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Posts posted by mfd101

  1. 2 hours ago, GOLDBUGGY said:

    Canada has gained its independence from Great Britian 150 years ago, but in all this time it has never learnt to be independant, and especially when it comes to the United States. Canada depends on the United States too much, and I have been saying this all my life. 

     

    Take Oil for instance. Canada Exports a lot of Oil. But when the Storage Tanks fill up in the United States Canada is forced to sell their Oil at huge discounts. Only to have our Brothers in the States load this Oil onto Tanker Ships and sell it at huge profits. Why?

     

    It is because in 150 Years, Canada has never built an Oil Pipeline from Alberta to the West Coast ( a mere 1,000 kilometers) or to any Ocean to ship there own Oil to Japan, China, and the Far East..Yet have extensive pipelines throughout the USA and as far as Mexico. 

     

    Canada has a way over abundance in Natural Gas. For the past 20 years the hottest market out there has been Liquified Natural Gas or also known as LNG. I recall Big Shots from Austraila (Santos) coming to Canada in 1982 and our Gas Plant, to see how it was run, as they didn't have any in Austraila at this time. Now Austraila has some of worlds largest LNG Plants and Exports many Tons on LNG to Japan and other Asian places for huge profits.

     

    So how many LNG Plants does Canada have now after this 20 year period? Zero! For the same reason is that all there Gas Pipelines goes to the United States and as far as California, but not one to the West Coast and Asian Markets. But in the United States they have many LNG Plants, as they now can take Canadian Natural Gas at a huge discount, Liquify it,  and again send this on a LNG Tanker to sell this at a huge profit on the Open Market. 

     

    It is because Canada has depended on the United States for most of there trade that they have become very volnerable. Trump may be many things but he is a Business Man First and when it comes to business he is not that stupid. He knows that if they stop buying Canadian Oil or Gas, when they already have enough of there own right now, what are they going to do about that? Do you think he is afraid of hurting somebodies feelings? That Trudeau doesn't like him? He would just laugh about that. As Business is just Business and nothing personal! 

     

    Canada! You slit your own throat! So maybe grow up after 150 years and be independent! Heaven knows you have most of the worlds natural resources in Canada to do that with. From Oil to Diamonds! From Gold to Wheat! From Telecommunications to Cars! From Baseball to Ice Hockey! And on and on and on! .     

    Yes, I remember arguing with my Canadian cousins back in 2004/2005 at a time the US Congress was placing or threatening to place duties on imports of Canadian timber ('lumber'). I pointed out that the whole world was short of timber - Japan, China, Korea, India, Europe ... - and Canada had it in abundance. So how come the Yanks had them over a barrel instead of the other way round?

     

    My cousins agreed that Canada had perhaps become complacent & lazy ...

    • Like 1
  2. 1 hour ago, Orton Rd said:

    True, can't imagine crazy Hillary sitting there shaking Kims hand

    The problem with Hilary is that she isn't crazy. And so would not have had the courage or the perspective to make this happen.

     

    It takes at least 1 crazy to shatter the 60 years of frozen history & start the process of moving forward. Where will it end? Noone knows, but better to start than to do nothing.

     

    Hilary probably never heard the saying: If I'm not making mistakes, it's because I'm not doing anything.

     

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1
  3. I think reasonable people might agree that (1) Trudeau is a dork & a lightweight, and (2) Trump is a vile & disgusting human being who might nevertheless, despite himself, produce a few good outcomes simply by destroying the various status quos (economic & strategic).

     

    On the other hand, George W Bush tried that in the Middle East - let's throw all the pieces up in the air & see where they come down - and that didn't turn out too good.

    • Like 2
  4. 6 minutes ago, Roadman said:

    I would no say gone forever

    Meaning, I assume, that post-Trump Usofa will recover.

     

    Yes, to some extent, but some things [eg weakening of Nato & weakening of NW Pacific alliance] are unlikely to recover. Once you've lost trust/credibility on security matters, it's very hard to recover from that. And Usofan power, both hard & soft, has been steadily diminishing RELATIVE to a rising China for 2 decades now. I expect that will continue no matter who's in the WH, although China does have its own economic, political, social & ethnic fragilities which we may see a lot of in future ...

     

    And Usofan domestic problems long precede Trump [educational & economic - very large numbers of Usofans unable to participate in the post-industrial economy; political/ideological roadblocks to reform ...]. Trump undoubtedly makes them worse but they won't go away when his time is up.

  5. Bureaucracy: a multi-headed hydra that grows constantly & requires constant hacking back.

     

    I know it well, having spent most of my adult life in the federal bureaucracy in Canberra. Noone ever agrees that they have enough staff or not enough to do: one may be cynical about this (lazy hacks, status seeking ...) but I think that managers in the bureaucracy are little different from their opposite numbers in large private enterprise corporations. The difference arises from the much more rigid financial bottom line in the private sector which enforces discipline in ways mostly lacking in the public sector.

     

    The problem is that POLITICIANS always want any new project they dream up to be an add-on (ie more and more resources for an ever-growing bureaucracy). The politicians can't cope with the thought of making CHOICES ie if you want to have more resources for X, you'll have to take them out of Y. All too hard for the pollies, I fear, most of whom have never managed anything larger than a paper bag.

  6. 1 hour ago, mogandave said:

    As someone that grew up in a state which saw property values soar, there seemed to be a lot of people that were happy about it.

    Sensible people (ie already in the market) profit. A few profit rather too much (ie don't know when to stop - rather like bodybuilders).

     

    And those not in the market already (including - but not exclusively - young people just getting started in life) miss out and struggle longterm.

    • Like 1
  7. 2 hours ago, terryw said:

    Well done Boris for telling the truth. Now he needs to keep on confronting those members of the Government who are trying to block Brexit. May is trying to deliver Brexit with half the Government opposed to her.

     

    The odds are increasing everyday that there will be No Deal and the lack of readiness for this outcome will have a profound effect on both the UK and European economies. 

     

    A profoundly negative effect on the British economy for the next at least 10 years, possibly 20, depending on how well the Brits manage themselves and their no doubt new federal system of government [which, on current performance, is likely to be: profoundly badly].

     

    As for the Europeans, a small negative effect for the next 5 years, barely noticeable as a blip on the graph.

     

    Conclusion: One of the drivers in all this is the British - and mostly English - continuing delusions of grandeur. In Europe they are useful & important, but not all-important. Out of Europe they sink to also-ran.

    • Like 2
  8. A modern or even semi-modern economy of 70 million people is hugely complex. All sorts of structural & incidental changes are going on simultaneously, many positive, some negative. Anyone who thinks that a few simplistic comments can summarize it all intelligently is kidding themselves. For example:

    (1) The baht is strong. And why is that? Because the economy is strong ie the measured economy is growing at a robust pace [though in Thailand the measured & measurable economy is no doubt a smaller sub-set than in most Western economies - other than Italy & Greece, no doubt!]. Is the strong baht harming exports? Well, given the Thai balance of trade - hugely positive, with very large foreign exchange holdings - clearly not.

    (2) The structural changes happening are massive - aging population, 1940s agriculture suffering, service industries growing rapidly, uneducated & undereducated population struggling to adapt ... Just like The West of the 1950s-70s and it continues today, except off a higher base. And, just like everywhere else, some people benefit by being adaptable & seizing opportunities, many people struggle & survive more or less well, and many sit still hoping it'll all just go away.

     

    For those of us old enough to have a memory and still able to use our brains, it's a fascinating process to watch. And, in my case, to be part of as my Thai family displays all the above characteristics (though mostly of the neutral-to-negative type). Trying to help them is difficult. Throwing money helps, but only shortterm. Just like welfare everywhere ...

    • Like 2
  9. 2 hours ago, lovelomsak said:

    Of course the people think the economy is doing poorly. They are now middle class. They want more money to pay off their new truck sooner,more money to go out to restaurants,more money for new house,fashion clothes. etc.If they lived like they did 20 years ago they would have plenty. Middle class never have enough. When they can afford Toyota they move up to Benz and complain it is hard to make ends meet.

      

    Yes, ask Aussies the same question - from one of the 5 or 6 richest highest-quality-living countries in the world - and you'll get the same answers: Oh it's terrible! Can't afford anything better than $30 for a bottle pf shiraz. Government's terrible. All the politicians are just terrible. I don't know how I cope ...

    • Like 2
  10. 3 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

    Things are booming all over Thailand. Hua Hin is packed full of Mercedes and BMW's.

     

    I just completed a 1500 kilometer motorcycle trip in Thailand and everywhere I went the roads were full of rush hour traffic, the malls were packed full of people eating and shopping, new and late model cars everywhere you looked.

    Yes, but - as usual everywhere in the world - as the average rises, some rise far & fast, others don't move, and most just move a little at a time.

  11. Much of this is good, of course, though not for good reasons (ignorance, stupidity, bullying etc).

     

    Sudden discontinuities force us to rethink, to reconsider what's important & what isn't, to review long-lasting relationships & consider new ones [like moving to Thailand!].

     

    Countries such as Australia are carefully considering their options and working out how to keep the old while adjusting to awkward new realities: increasing Usofan unreliability in all domains, likely Chinese economic hegemony combined with bullying attitudes on security & likely long-term political fragility ... A brave new world that challenges our complacency, our old ideas, and our lack of imagination.

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