jas007

Yellowtail, I guess I was just thinking out loud. While you may see the real estate market in Thailand and the U.S. as similar, in terms of risks and rewards, I was just pointing out that in the U.S., it’s sometimes the banks that take on much of the risk, not the buyer. With non-recourse financing, and 30 year fixed rate loans at absurdly low interest rates, it’s the banks that take on much of the risk. The buyer can just walk away from the loan and mail the keys back to the bank. Ever hear of ‘jingle mail”? The house is then the bank’s problem. Of course, the banks usually bundle and sell mortgage loans off to another party almost as soon as they are made, so the cycle continues. And when the real estate market crashes and the people holding the loans are in danger, they are bailed out by the government. That has happened before and it will happen again. Right now, the commercial real estate market and many banks are in big trouble. So at this point, it’s all a great game in the USA. Anything to support the system. Whether it makes sense or not, they don’t care. In Thailand, foreigners usually have to pay with cash. Their own money. They have a real estate market risk, and they have a currency risk. And if they lose, no one bails them out.

Yellowtail, I agree. Everyone’s situation is different. I’m at the point in life where I don’t want to spend all my time trying to maximize my wealth. Doing that really does take time. I remember years ago, when I first “retired” at age 35. At the time, my genius idea was to trade stocks, so I spent all day online, glued to some computer monitors. Back then, online trading was in its infancy and all the free tools they have today weren’t available. Anyway, at the end of the year and after all that work, I was only up 38%. The market had a good year that year, and in retrospect, I could have accomplished the same thing by buying an index fund and forgetting about it. I could have been down at the beach, chilling out, instead of sitting inside watching a stock ticker. So I’m now retired again, and as of a few years ago, I don’t really trade stocks. Whatever I buy, I keep. Year to date I’m up 33%. Not great, but ok. I could be back to no gain by the end of the year, but so what? If history is any guide, holding long term turns out ok 90% of the time. Back to real estate. Foreigners in Thailand usually have to pay cash. No mortgages. So anyone buying really has to risk their own money. In the USA, some states have what they call “non-recourse financing.” Suppose a person in one of those states buys a property. They can usually do that with only a small down payment. The rest of the purchase price is “somebody else’s money.” If the value of the property drops after the purchase but the buyer is forced to sell, there’s no deficiency judgment that can be obtained. Typically, the bank just gets the house back. The buyer is off the hook. Buying property in one of those state can almost be a no brainer. The only thing you can lose is your down payment and your credit rating. Banks don’t want repossessed houses. So they sell them. People buying such houses from the bank can get a good deal. The bank will even lend them the money. During the crash in the 2008 period, one of my friends bought a nice house in AZ from the bank for about 40% of the prior sale price. When he sold that house a few years later, the market had recovered and he made a nice profit.

Sure, sometimes the currency moves can be substantial. But that can be a crapshoot, right? People got some great deals back in the late 90s during the Asian financial crisis. Not only was the Thai economy not doing so well, the Thai baht had dropped significantly. Some sellers were motivated . In retrospect, many foreign buyers did well. But it can also work the other way. My only point is that buying a condo isn’t for everyone. How old are they? Do they have a significant other? Do they have kids who might not want to fool around trying to sell a condo in Thailand? What other assets do they have? What’s their income? Will they live there full time? Are they absolutely sure about the location? As for paying rent in Thailand? To me, it seems so low that it almost doesn’t matter. I’ll gladly pay it every month. I don’t pay property taxes, I don’t pay HOA fees, and I don’t pay for insurance. I guess that’s why Thailand is so popular as a retirement destination. I’m not sure where you’re from, but the property market in the States has been crazy. Not only for buyers, but rents have gone sky high as well. And don’t forget property taxes, homeowners insurance, regular maintenance, utilities, and so on. It all adds up. And if you’re not careful, you’ll be stuck in a money pit. For young people with a long time horizon, buying may well be the smart choice if they can get a fixed rate mortgage at a good rate.

Don’t believe all that. The court can’t rewrite the constitution and the case law that has evolved over the years. The court conceded that the president has unqualified immunity for actions taken when performing his core presidential duties, but also concluded that the president’s immunity is not absolute. And the president surely isn’t immune from actions taken in a purely private matter. All that makes perfect sense. It’s nothing new, really. The problem is that there’s a large grey area. The President may be performing in an official capacity and yet he might, at the same time, arguably be dealing in a mostly private matter. Just because some nutty DA somewhere dreams up a crime that the president supposedly committed, doesn’t make it so. Think about it. The president can always be charged with something or other. But being charged with a crime does not automatically remove the president’s immunity. It’s a finding the court has to make. So this case doesn’t really fix anything. It benefits Trump, in that the case was remanded and is now delayed, but that’s about it. The people screaming about the outcome are politically motivated. They hate Trump so much they’ll spout any kind of nonsense.

The court pretty much had to rule the way it did. This should be no surprise to anyone who knows anything about the Constitution and about how the court works. They couldn’t leave a president with no immunity, and it’s probably fair to say that the president would not be immune from prosecution for all acts, especially those done outside the scope of his authority as president. It becomes a question of fact. In any event, the case has been remanded and that process takes time. There will be no trial before the election. A big win for Trump in that regard. It’s all crazy, no matter how you look at it. Now, the question of whether the president was acting in his official capacity when allegedly committing a crime will always be a necessary finding. Just this morning on Al Jazeera, they interviewed a law professor about the case. She said the decision would go down as one of the worst decisions ever by the Supreme Court. It’s funny how even well educated people can be oblivious to reality. Blame Trump Derangement Syndrome.

Presnock, An update. The inpatient billing department at the hospital contacted me yesterday. They said they now have an updated approval from the insurance company, and that if I stoop into their office, they can credit the amount I paid them back to the credit card I used.

That may be. I’m pretty sure, though, that most people aren’t dressing more casually simply because they don’t want to be a mugging target. Today, it’s just a matter of people dressing however they want. And it seems to work. When I first moved to Southern California from NYC I the summer of 1977, one of the first things I noticed was that people in California were almost always dressed casually. Even in the best restaurants, you could get away with wearing a polo shirt and jeans. In NYC, that wouldn’t work too well. There were many restaurants in Manhattan that wouldn’t even let you in the door if you weren’t wearing a dinner jacket. Anyway, I think that the people in NYC now simply think that casual makes more sense.

I think that may be true, in part, but I also think that some of what you’re seeing is just a cultural shift. People in NYC used to pay attention to how they looked. They tried to look good. And that meant dressing well. Fast forward to the year 2001 (the last time I was in Manhattan) and it seemed like the dress code had changed. You could look more like a slob and get away with it. At least that’s the impression I had. Today things may be even more relaxed.

They once managed to turn NYC around. I lived in Manhattan in the mid 70s. It was a lot of fun back then, but the city was also a mess. Homeless people everywhere. Beggars on every block. Prostitutes on just about every block. Graffiti everywhere, including graffiti that covered just about every square inch of every subway car. Drugs openly sold on street corners. I sort of came away with the impression that unless you were murdering someone or robbing a bank, you were good to go. Anyway, Rudy Giuliani came along and they somehow turned things around. I think it helped that the economy was improving at the same time. More recently, the city seems to be on the decline. Some of that is by design, and some of it is because the economy was weakened by the COVID lockdowns and all the work from home people are now doing. So, it’s possible. Any city in America can be turned around, I think.

Upon further reflection, I’m beginning to think the next election will be another Trump vs. Hillary. How this happens I’ll leave to everyone’s imagination.

It will happen one way or another, if the people actually running the country decide that’s what needs to be done. 100% guaranteed. Don’t make the mistake of thinking that the left flank of the party carries any meaningful weight. They serve as useful idiots, only.

Anyone who has ever spent time around a person with advancing dementia should have known long ago that Biden was not fit for office. I went through a similar situation with my father. When he was 80, he was 100%, both mentally and physically. By the time he was 85, a slight decline was noticeable. Some days were worse than others. He was mostly doing well, but once in a while it was obvious. His memory was not all there at times. For example, he’d tell the same story twice during one meal. Less than a six months later, his wife was in a nursing home and he didn’t even realize she was no longer around. When she died five months later, I told him, but it didn’t sink in. Anyway, by the time he was 87, the doctors said he needed to be somewhere where he could receive professional care 24/7. So the decline can happen pretty fast. Biden for another term? Absolutely not. Anyone who thinks otherwise doesn’t understand.

For a foreigner who can’t get a mortgage in Thailand and will have to pay cash, buying a condo might not be such a smart move. The opportunity cost is too high. Even if the price seems reasonable, without the benefit of a mortgage, you are not using other people’s money, you’re using your money. If you assume the condo won’t appreciate at all, then it sounds like a losing proposition. And even if it appreciates, it probably won’t appreciate that much. So it’s still not that great of an investment. You can probably find hundreds of better options. Stocks, bonds, commodities. And don’t forget the currency risk. You buy the condo with currency from your home country, and the next thing you know you have an asset priced in Thai baht. Will the baht rise or fall? Perhaps you have so much money that buying a condo would be no big deal. In that case, if it makes you happy, then why not? I’ve decided just to rent. I don’t have any money tied up and I can always move. And the rent is very reasonable. So much so that I sort of feel sorry for the Thai owner. She’s getting an income, though, so she’s happy. I sometimes wonder who owns all the condos in my building. I’ve seen my next door neighbor exactly two times in two years. I’ve never seen the person in the condo next to that. There was a Korean couple that lived at the other end of the floor, but they moved, so right now I think I’m the only occupant of my floor. Anyway, someone must own all the other condos. Rich Thai people? Whoever they are, they can afford to own condos that are never used.

One time I was at the American embassy in Bangkok to get them to sign off on my income affidavit. This was back in the day when they still did that. A guy in the waiting room next to me was there to make a sworn statement to support a credit card fraud claim. He said someone at a grocery store somehow got his credit card info and after that $300,000.00 was charged to his account in Hong Kong. I was going to ask him why he was using a card with such a high limit, but I didn’t want to be nosey. Anyway, if I was using a physical card for everyday purchases, I’d probably have the card set for a low limit. Big enough to use for everyday purchases, but not so high that there would be any danger if I somehow got stuck paying for a fraudulent charge. A large charge wouldn’t go through in the first place.

Utilities and telecoms I can sort of see as defensive dividend plays. Some health care stocks may be a little overvalued, though. LLY, for example. A few years back I bought 1000 shares of it one day and was just going to let it ride. I think I paid around $120 a share. Something like that. Anyway it started becoming way too volatile for me, so I sold it. Of course not too long after it started its climb to its current level. What is it now, around $900? That seems nuts to me. Other drug companies haven’t fared too well and have already dropped considerably. Maybe some of the big hospital corporations? Or just find a basket of health care stocks.

Serious issues with reality? One day, the truth will come out. In the meantime, continue living in fantasyland.

I haven’t looked it up, but I think that some Medicare Advantage plans (Medicare Part C) actually cover overseas medical care. I’m not sure of the particulars. The Advantage plans use this additional coverage as an incentive to get people to switch. What I’m not sure about is whether a person without a U.S. address would be eligible to switch in the first place. As a side note, based on what I’ve seen, I would never consider switching to an Advantage plan. The way the plans make money is by denying as many claims as possible. They keep the premiums in any event.

Supposedly, the Biden family is having a big meeting tomorrow. Maybe he will do an LBJ and drop out of the race. That’s likely. Less likely but possible, he steps down from the presidency for “health reasons.” That’s what should happen, but then the Deep State would have a President Harris issue to deal with. A real nightmare in the midst of the U.S. involvement in Ukraine and the Middle East and a shifting balance of power. Ukraine, the Middle East, and now the involvement of China and North Korea. The balance of power in the world has shifted, and the U.S. has a foreign policy based on a fantasy concocted by a bunch of warmongers and Neocons. Add to it a President who knows nothing and might just take advice from the State Department and it all adds up to WW III.

Believe what you want. It was a well orchestrated event meant to fool people.

I was nowhere near the place. I did watch some of it on TV, though. At the time, I thought it was crazy. Later, trying to piece together what happened, it became obvious.

The fascist playbook is in use today. By the so-called Democrats. Starting with the educational system and the indoctrination of children from an early age. Continuing with a tightly controlled and highly censored media, the weaponization of the justice system, and so on. I could make a big list, but I’ll skip that. It’s obvious to anyone who has been paying attention.

Whatever the Democrats do, you can be sure it will be really really dumb. Democrats inside the Beltway all seem to be living in a delusional fantasy world. And they really do believe their own nonsense. Fortunately, they have a date with reality in November.

Did you not see the police usher people into the building? They directed them inside, as if they were tour guides.

All the outpatient visits and tests I usually just pay for out of pocket. They always give me a claim form, but I never bother with it. Too much aggravation for me. Too little money. Life is too short.

They say Jill doesn’t wane to give up all the First Lady privileges. To the extent she is pulling Joe’s strings, Biden may have little to say about it. As for the current VP? She was selected to be Biden’s insurance policy. Anything happens to Joe and the country would have a world class mess on its hands. That’s another reason why I don’t see Biden stepping down before the end of his term. No one wants a President Harris. She might somehow get the idea that she’s actually in charge. So, the LBJ move is the most likely scenario.