Cadbury

7 minutes ago, saengd said:

Yes sure, why try and blame falling exports on the two countries that represent 32% of all Thai exports and some silly little trade war! https://oec.world/en/profile/country/tha/#:~:targetText=The top export destinations of,and Malaysia (%2410.7B).

Close but no cigar!

As usual you select outdated numbers to lend support to your proud defence of junta style economics. These days both China and the US combined only represent 22% (not 32%) of Thai export trade. 

The updated 2019 figures from your 2017 numbers are, to quote:

"Major export partners are China (12 percent), Japan (10 percent), the United States (10 percent) and the European Union (9.5 percent). Others include: Malaysia, Australia and Singapore." 

I do acknowledge that if one Googles hard and long enough that statistics can always be found to suit any purpose and support any argument.

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

3 hours ago, webfact said:

81.9% of respondents to a Super Poll agree that there is no better alternative to conscription

I think all this proves is that 81.9% of respondents were over the call up age for conscription, or were sexually disoriented in a way that would make them ineligible.

2 minutes ago, baboon said:

But in their defence, there is no real point to them attending. Any meaningful opposition to the junta will simply be ignored by the said junta and forgotten about in the media after a few days at best.

I think many of the Democrats were the ones who were traitors to their voters and their cause and sold their souls to the devil in exchange for ministry and lesser appointments. They are the ones who helped vote Prayut as the Prime Minister in return for prime positions at the trough.

Funny man is Dr Somkid. Last week he came out with.............Sssh! "Don't mention the economy"; "if we keep talking about it, it'll make good things look bad......"

Today, in contradiction of his earlier remarks, he out and about in a depressive mood mentioning the economy and talking it down by telling everyone it is not doing so good and 300,000 to 400,000 workers have been laid off because of the drop in exports and factory shut shut downs.

And the predicted GDP growth which was originally set at 3.3% is now only 2.4%.

I suppose at least he is being honest about it, in contrast to TAT and some of the other flaky government spokespersons. Khun Prayut Chan-o-cha is maintaining shameful wall of silence; as he should.

Chin up everyone....we still have the "eat, spend, travel, shop" stimulus programme going......ad nauseum.

6 hours ago, damascase said:

The title of the article is incorrect. This doesn’t concern an ‘EU paper’, it comes frome private parties.

Correct, a very deceptive headline created by the The Nation. This paper is not an EU paper at all.

It was prepared by members of The European Association for Business and Commerce (EABC) which is based in Thailand.

They are simply doing a suck up to the EU and trying drum up business in Europe for their own benefit.  

Almost all the economic indicators signal more bad news ahead. TAT's exaggerated claims should be totally disregarded.

If for some reason the baht falls in value there might be some hope but others would argue there is little chance of that in the near future. Even the Thai Central Bank chief says the rising baht is a worry.

The government's unimaginative and addiction to "Chim Shop Chai" stimulus campaigns will do little more than give temporary relief and nothing to fix decreasing manufacturing and farm exports. Rice exports is shaping up as a big worry as other country's rice export prices are going down while their productivity and quality rises. Thailand is losing their share of the global rice market fast.

Thailand has an export driven economy and if that is not performing well then the country as a whole will not do well. 

A lot will depend on the global economy and if that goes into recession then Thailand will likely be dragged down with it.

When Somkid, one of the chiefs of Thailand's economic team, comes out publicly and says.....ssssh! "Don't mention the economy" and saying it could affect confidence then something bad is in the air for sure.

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/economy/deputy-thai-pm-dont-mention-the-economy

12 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

“After we receive information from each ministry, we will categorise in each aspect such as social, economic and public welfare in order to make a presentation,”

The public can expect outpourings of, self-aggrandizement, pomposity and vanity mixed with a smatterings of conceit, narcissism and faux humbleness. Face preservation will take top priority.

It should be expected there will be extreme contortions of the truth and deliberate avoidance of controversial topics like the terrible road toll, legitimization of toxic poisons, decreasing exports and poor economic performance. 

18 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The Philippines went to the WTO in 2008 to complain that Thailand was illegally discriminating against imports to protect its state-controlled Thailand Tobacco Monopoly.

 

Another sharp lesson to potential foreign investors and traders. Even with a WTO decision going against them they still try any dirty trick in their book when things don't go their way. Foreign investors are still effectively dealing with a military junta government and are playing with fire when dealing with Thailand.

A similar case to Hopewell. Thailand and the junta is not to be trusted as Kingsgate found out.

1 hour ago, saengd said:

"The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate slightly decreased, in line with the rising number of employed persons in agricultural sector". 

 

Historically in Thailand, when the economy takes a downturn, people return to their roots and start farming again.

 

The remainder suggests that economic contraction is in line with global trading conditions, the current account surplus shrinks as exports shrink. But nice to have two strings to the bow, once again Thailand falls back on tourist numbers which have increased (seasonally), will be interesting to see what happens in March or so.

 

 

The Thai economy is an export driven economy. That seems to be the real root of the problem given what has now become an unhealthy and consistent pattern of falls in export value. To quote:

"The value of merchandise exports continued to contract, mainly due to the economic slowdown of trading partners, consistent with deterioration in manufacturing production and private investment indicators.......The value of merchandise exports, both including and excluding gold, dropped by 5.0 per cent".

They talk grandly, as TAT always does, of the increased non spending tourist arrival (Chinese and Indians) numbers as if that will save the day. Diddling around with repeated and unimaginative stimulus programmes like "travel, spend, eat and shop" might at best only give temporary relief.

Likewise, reliance on FTAs with basket case countries like Turkey won't help much either. 

And still they obstinately refuse in this story to make any comment of the high baht. 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1136197-thai-central-bank-chief-says-worried-about-rapid-baht-gains/

One thing I believe hasn't helped and that is Prayut playing at being an economist and appointing himself as head of the economic team while relegating the experienced Somkid to nothing more than a salesman for the EEC. Maybe it is proving now Prayut has bitten off more than he can chew.

Yes indeed, interesting days ahead.