8 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Or in the UK one expert predicting Doomsday 500,000 dead, revising his paper and now saying less than 20,000 dead.

Keep posting that lie about 500000. That was his prediction if nothing was done.

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Lol, this is EXACTLY how the end of this pandemic will be sold. 

 

Never mind reality, that the Chinese did a study that tried to ascertain the effect of a social distancing measure but then had to conclude that it was impossible to do so (because several measures were used at the same time and it was not possible to apportion a specific effect to each one).

 

Social distancing is of course not succeeding. The US has tested 1 million people and that is what is helping, to isolate the infected.

 

Equally Boris Johnson got the message now that testing makes the difference and has vowed to ramp up testing to German levels.

 

Yet everyone will remember "social distancing" because that's what the UK focused on (in the initial absence of test kits and hospital beds, ventilators etc) and think this is what defeated the virus. 

 

Obviously it was testing and isolating the infected if this pandemic comes to an end for any other reason but herd immunity, which I strongly doubt.

 

Despite the case number in the UK, the latest study again says millions in the UK are infected. 

 

But sure, social distancing worked. Okay. Lol.

 

Ya see, the problem with countries like China is that it's government wants to be the keeper of all the information. And if you release that information without their approval, you're likely to find yourself in a whole lot of trouble.

But in the USA and other reasonably democratic nations that isn't the case. Even private for profit companies can gather and release useful information without seeking the approval of a government apparatchik.

Social Distancing May Be Working, New Study Hints

"Social distancing measures such as closing restaurants, bars and other nonessential businesses is slowing the spread of thre coronavirus in the United States, early evidence suggests.
Data show that the number of people with fever that's an early indication of coronavirus infection started falling almost immediately after social distancing measures took effect in some areas, USA Today reported.
The findings are from health technology company Kinsa, which analyzed fever readings from more than 1 million thermometers in use across the U.S."

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200326/social-distancing-may-be-working-new-study-hints

That is very powerful data. Especially impressive given its instantaneity. It can actually be seen happening as it happens.

And there is lots of new evidence of the more traditional kind emerging. This is just one example:

Social distancing works. The earlier the better, California and Washington data show.

Mandatory social distancing works. The earlier the better, preliminary data from two weeks of stay-at-home orders in California and Washington show...

Compared with the Boston area, which has a more-similar population density, California’s Bay Area has about a third of the of the cases, per capita. The state of Massachusetts ordered people to stay home 8 days ago.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/01/lockdown-coronavirus-california-data/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/01/lockdown-coronavirus-california-data/

42 minutes ago, Nyezhov said:

BS. He was a head of the curve or on the same lap as others, and if we are going to Monday morning quarterback while the game is still on, a least lets recognize the bottom line China lied, people died.

 

Hey can you get Chloroquinine by prescrip in NY? If not, is their blood on Cuomos hands?

 

 

If you have been paying even the most cursory attention to any other news source than Fox and its ilk, you would know that once a drug is approved for treatment of one illness, doctors are allowed to prescribe it for any illnesss. It's called off label prescribing. That said, how do you know that Chloroquine won't result in more deaths than if it has not been used? So if Cuomo had it in his power to allow it and more people died as a result, in that case would he have blood on his hands?

8 minutes ago, Logosone said:

This would be the perfect time for China to invade and occupy the USA.

 

What is China waiting for? It will never be more perfect than this.

I guess they're waiting for a politico-military genius such as yourself to convince them to take advantage of the opportunity.

But really, your focus on polls is just a way of distracting from the same big issue that dogged republicans in 2018: Health Care. Do ya think health care is going to play a smaller role in 2020 than it did in 2018? Who do you think that issue is going to favor?

18 minutes ago, Crazy Alex said:

1) The national popular vote in a presidential election is irrelevant.

2) Quantifying odds of winning that turn out to be incorrect are difficult at best quantify. And pointless.

3) Yes, I'm sure people who pay pollsters will have to find new ways to drive public opinion, given what a hit their credibility took in 2016.

What about the hit their credibility took in 2018. Fivethirtyeight got it exactly right. What about 2012. 2008? 2004? 2000? 1996? 1992? The polls have gotten it mostly right. What's your problem?

15 minutes ago, connda said:

Every main-stream poll between now and November will show Biden leading Trump.  We've seen this before in 2016. Main steam information source are beyond unreliable. We'll know the night after to polls close, if there is an election.  November will tell.

Btw, I've no dog in this fight.  Two sides of the same coin.  I could care less about either.

So, if we go back to a history of presidential polls for the last 40 years, do you think the results would be the same as if a coin was tossed?

12 minutes ago, Crazy Alex said:

https://theweek.com/articles/806043/what-happened-democrats-blue-wave

 

But still, you fail to address comparing the non-wave with previous results. If 2018 was a blue wave, how would you describe 2012 and 1996? Obviously, you'll come up with words much stronger than "wave". I await your expertise on the matter.

 

 

Were the results as dramatic in the either the senate or the house in either of those years. I think the democrats did regain the senate in 2012.

And you forget that gaining 40 seats in 2018 is particularly impressive given the widespread gerrymandering the Republicans accomplished in the wake of their red wave victory in 2010.

12 minutes ago, AgMech Cowboy said:

The Obama administration fail to replenish N-95 mask inventories after the H1N1 outbreak in 2009.

And what stopped the Trump administration from remedying that deficiency? But what the Obama administration didn't do is try and diminish the public health services upon which defense against pandemics rests. Unlike the Trump administration.

25 minutes ago, Crazy Alex said:

I agree. Not so well. Trump suffered far less losses than both Clinton and Obama. In fact, even leftist media outlets concede the predicted blue wave didn't happen.

 

Now, if you'll pay attention for a moment, check out the topic. It's about the upcoming PRESIDENTIAL election. The last one was in 2016. There wasn't one in 2018. So tell me about your confidence in presidential polls, given your experience with them in 2016.

Are you living in an alternate reality? The Blue Wave most emphatically did happen. 

Democrats’ blue wave was much larger than early takes suggested

With all votes counted, it’s a larger landslide than 1994 or 2010.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/13/18082490/blue-wave

2018 midterms: A blue wave or merely an electoral adjustment into a new presidency?

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/419308-2018-midterm-election-a-blue-wave-or-merely-an-electoral-adjustment-into-a

And as pointed out above, the polls actually showed the race to be close. 

6 minutes ago, stephenterry said:

Obesity rates could be a correlation effect, as could race differences, certainly IMO, but the numbers are so skewed it's reasonable to conclude that other life factors are in play - e.g. poorer people are less able (or willing) to have Medicare insurance to pay for life-saving treatment. 

 

It would be of educational interest, IMO - and that's not dismissing the seriousness of this virus's ability to cause premature deaths in so many people. Very sad. 

 

 

Actually, the poorest Louisianans are eligible for the ACA's expanded Medicaid program. And there are lots of Louisianans who meet the criteria for eligibility! Go Obamacare!

6 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Obviously he likes Putin. 

 

It's a bit strong to say they "lied", a website gave a statement that it was aid. The Russians no doubt see it as that, many others would too. Regardless of whether Trump paid half or even all.

Since when does one nation giving another nation "aid" not mean a gift?

As for "Obviously he likes Putin." Because what is there not to like?

5 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Obviously he likes Putin. 

 

Trump, as he said is not concerned about propaganda. Neither are most people now. If a country helps another that's a good thing. You can overthink things and see an ulterior motive when there isn't one.

 

 

Yeah, sure. Trump says a lot of things. Often self contradictory. If you look at his behavior, though, it doesn't usually jibe with that protestation, does it? Except when it comes to Putin and Russia. 

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

They do, but only when they give the desired results.

In that event, you aren't going to be counting the results of most polls.

53 minutes ago, Logosone said:

If Putin paid half and the US paid half it's still a humanitarian gesture. The Russians don't have to supply these rare

supplies to other countries. Even selling them full price is generous in these times. Given that the US has sanctions on Russia.

Why would you believe what the Russians say on this score"? They have already lied about it. And what you construe as generosity is more likely Putin trying to score propaganda points. And don't you think it strange that Trump didn't correct Russian false claims that it was a gift? What is there about the Russians that makes Donald Trump, usually so quick to fly off the handle, be so gentle in his conduct towards them?

11 minutes ago, stephenterry said:

You need to take into account that there are nearly 3 times as as many black people (c.3 million) in N.Y state than (c.1.4 m) in Louisiana. So the above percentages are misleading for numbers of death comparison purposes. I got caught out on that earlier on today.

 

And to clarify 'similarly obese', as in equality of weight. 

But we're talking about mortality rate, not totals. So if obesity is a factor, than the higher rate of obesity in N.O. is also a factor. And if race is a factor and being black means you're more likely to succumb to Covid (I'm not maintaining that's the case) then once again the would tend to make the mortality rate higher in N.O.

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Let's hope if Russia needs these supplies herself later on other nations will be as charitable as Russia was here.

Which was possibly not at all?

49 minutes ago, tifino said:

Looks like the CCP is at the fact hiding again... 

already on the television News there's the announcement broken out from behind the bamboo curtain;

 - that already at least one Province has returned itself to total lockdown 

 

especially after everyone has gone back out to the wild animal markets...

I couldn't find that about the province returning itself to total lockdown. Got a source for that?