swissie

Monk Mode and "productivity". "Productivity" hardly in the economical sense. Spiritually maybe. Not beneffitting the rest of the world. "Monk-Mode" is everywhere and in full swing. In Europe: Next door neighbors not talking to each other. "Hello" the only conversation, after years of living next door to each other. No need to join a Thai-Temple. If getting tired of European "Monkism", one can always link-up with our 200 Facebook friends.

Quote: "the writing style strikes me as verbose, unnecessarily complex, and often rife with melodramatic sentiment". It may strike us like this today as we have lost half of our vocabulary. The "richness" of languages is gone. Be it English, French or German, compared to before, we speak and write those languages as "skeleton-languages". Even Arthur Conan Doyle and Aghata Cristie spoke a different English compared to todays English. Remarkably: The youth of today seems to be limited to some basic 600 words. Even refusing to pronounce the words understanably. Their speach resembling the speach of a 95 year old toothless senior. Like everything else, languages change/adopt over time. The greatest literature ever written was during a time when it was perfectly normal to ship millions of Africans to the new world and the kings ruled the world in the name of "God" and the Pope in Rome. ---------------- The future of languages. Thanks to AI we will only have to commence a sentence. AI will complete the sentence for us. Therefore, we should manage just fine with a vocabulary reduced to 200 words.

Now that "the Markets" have reached the conclusion that the long awaited recession is finally coming, "everything" is (will be) down, not only Copper. As the long-term fundamentals for Copper remain intact, I will add to my position on severe setbacks. Currently, I am only engaged with 30% of my planned position in Copper.

Forgetting to "tip" their retail customers. The usual. After a massive price increase, they will recommend it to their retail-custoers as a "strong buy". (The unloading process from "strong hands" to "weak hands"). Usually the end of every Bull-Market.

True "preppers" have built their bunkers already, stacked with supplies lasting for 2 years. Only problem: Someday they will have to emerge from their bunkers. If the ultimative "armageddon" should have happened in the meantime, they will feel "very alone", as the "non-prepping surface dwellers" will all have died. How to organise a "resurrection" party when nobody is left to join the party and your underwear starts to glow in the dark? Everybody not having built a bunker is not a true "prepper". Having accumulated 50 Kilos of pasta makes one merely a "Hamster", but not a true "prepper".

During the COVID Lockdowns that was the case in Germany. In France, the most hoarded article were CONDOMS. Does that tell us something of the "charakters of nations" ?.

Current and projected Supply and Demand can not be compared between the 2 commodities. An entirely different situation.

Yes.

I can do better: We all should have bought "Apple", 500 years ago.

Amen! The priests have alwas fared better than their followers. Hate to think that the creators of "new cryptos" (weekly or monthly) are the modern day priests.

Can't remember. But I also can't remember when I heard "Hello sexy man" for the first time.

Point 1,2,3 are absolutely correct, resulting in "trust", making it a "common denominator" for worldwide trade. If the Thai Farmer should decide to export his water melons, he would have to take a glance at the US$/BAHT exchange rate occasionally. He is not likely going to look at the price of Bitcoin.

Above comment makes it clear to me, that unless someone is a "computer-wizard", it is not possible to understand the "inner-workings" of crypto currencies. I happen to believe that 95% of people are not computer-wizards. Caution would suggest, if something is not understood, better "hands-off". This brings me in "devils-kitchen". Men claim, that we don't know the "inner-workings" of women. That has not stopped us from keeping our hands off women. "Brute Force" was mentioned. I can rob a bank with brute force. Someone tell me how to rob with "keyboard brute force". It might turn me into a convert.

These days, the "Market Gurus" cant't make up their minds. Torn between market statistics that can indicate a future economic "recession" or a general "nevermind". We will "sit out whatever comes", recommending mostly a very conservative approach to "the markets". Fine. - But future "Bull-Markets" sneak up like a cat on silent paws. Not noticed by the Wall Sreet Guru community, until the cat has leaped foreward (upward) by 50%). Then they recommend it with "a strong buy". Currently we have a cat, getting ready to "leap". Having formed a very solid technical and fundamental base from witch to "leap". Having build up the foundation to laep for months. Most producers of this material agree that they will not be able to satisfy the demand for this material. At the latest by September this year. Regardless if the Chinese Economy recovers or not. (A major consumer). The Wall-Street Gurus have not gotten wind of it yet. But the producers of this material have. Does the cat, aproaching on silent paws has a name? Yes, it's name is COPPER.

I have asked many questios and received many answers. Can you ask again what answer I have not given.

According to you, not long enough. But I have never met a person that bought Bitcoin at $ 60'000 and is still happy.

Quote: "No technical reason. Its creator just made that choice so the system is not indefinitely inflationary. What if he changes his mind and allowes for 100 million coins? Quote; "It's called Crypto Currency because it relies on Cryptography. Kryptos means concealed, hidden, secret. Not unexplainable, mysterious or beyond comprehension. Secrecy is the key to digital security because the opposite would mean everyone could access your accounts, wallets, data etc. Then why is it that on a monthly basis we learn that certain Crypto accouts heve been plundered by some sophisticated "hackers". Secrecy? PS: It happenes that some native English Speakers occasionally post messages here, that I can only qualify as "cryptic messages". It may have something to do with local "slang", giving new meaning to Crtiptologie, dwarfing the Cryptig messages of the old Greeks. ======================== Now down to some basic fundamentals: To asses the intristic value of something we need a "measuring stick". Here, we are walking on "thin ice". 2000 years ago, in the middle east, the measuring stick consisted of 100 sheep skins equals the value of 10 cows. I strongly believe that the US$ will remain as the "measuring stick" for a long time to come. (power of taxation). To what would one link any crypto to a system without power of taxation? Exchanging a hundred sheep skins for 10 cows, taking place at the New York Stock exchange? Or exchanging a good looking women for 1 Bitcoin? An exchange of " values" can only take place with a centralised common denominator. Worldwide. And this is the US$ still. Formerly Gold and Silver coins. Cryptos can not replace "the value compass" of this world due to the lack of the power of taxation. Worse: Without any "tangible" anchorage of any sort. (Unless backed by 100 sheep skins or 1 good looking women as currency).

Of course, turning it into "economic-growth". For better or for worse. Do Crypto Miners contribute to Economic Growth"?

Thanks guys. I am a bit wiser now. A few questions remain: - The "production" of Bitcoins is called "mining". I read that the amount of Bitcoins that ever could be mined is limited to 21 Million coins. Why not more? Please explain. Surely we will not run out of numerical combinations. - The "mining" uses already as much elctricity as the entire country of Morocco. "The Governements of this world" may find this unacceptable, if this trend continues. ------------------- Many speculative bubbles have come and gone over time. Starting with the "Tulip Mania" in old Holland. 1 Tulip seed had the value of a downtown house, before the big crash. At least a tulip was something tangibe. One cold see it, smell it, touch it. On the other hand, most people have never seen, nor smelled, nor touched a Bitcoin. I like "tangible things". Holding a 100 Dollar billl in my hands still gives me a warm feeling. Especially as long as the value of Cryptos is measured in form of US$. The word "Crypto" has it's origins in the old Greek language. Meaning: Mysterious, unexplainable, beyond comprehention. Food for thaught.

Thanks eisfeld. Very helpful. Commodity Futures prices take their clue from the cash market price. Projecting the cash price into the future. That's why they are called "futures markets". That can lead to "Contago" or "Backwardation" situations. Finally backed by something tangible, the cash price of a commodity. Not really comparable to "Cryptos".

I truly want to understand "crypto currencies". "Experts to the forefront". I understand, that "fiat currencies" are becoming more suspicious. For thousands of years Gold and Real Estate were a refuge when "Currency De-Basement" were on the agenda of Kings an other rulers, when they ran short of Gold (the only money, back then). As I understand it, while buying Bitcoins I get a combination of numbers that my baker around the corner will not accept as currency and give me no loaf of bread for a part of my numerical combination. Outside of a numerical combination I can not see the value of anything outside of the value of a numerical combination. Backed up by nothing else than a numerical combination, hoping that another fellow will consider a purely numerical combination is some sort of "currency". Backed by nothing but a combination of numbers. - In my younger days, I traded all kinds of volatile commodites (CBOT, CME) mainly "Pork-Bellies", knowing that the worst thing that could happen, is having delivered 40'000 Lbs of "Pork Bellies" at my doorstep. A big loss, but still an "asset", because people like to eat bacon. How do you eat Bitcoin? Unlike "Pork-Bellies", a combination of numbers is not an "asset". Both highly speculative. I still prefere "commodities", with a tangible value, instead of a numerical combination, called "assets". My baker across the street does not believe in "numerical assets". He believes in "cash" and won't sell any of his bread for some part of a Bitcoin. Any currency (fiat or not), reflects the state of the "health of a nation", politically, economically, sociaally. Not looking too good, I agree. To replace this by something backed by absolutely nothing tangible must fail. As the Central Banks will not abandon the privilege of controlling "the money supply", not tolerating alternative "dream-currencies", bare of any tangible "assets". Nor having the power of "Taxation". Knowing that the greatest "ponzi-scheme" is in the making. China has already forbidden "crypto currencies" unless approved by the "Governement". So truly, I need to know, why would anyone buy a number of other numbers for 30'000 $ and call it finally an "asset". Back on Toipic I would simply like to know why some people prefer to invest in something that only exists as a mathematical complicated password, basically. Hoping that the next fool will buy the "complicated password* for 1 Dollar more. ----------------------- My perception on things. Opposing views to enlighten me are very welcome. Especially if it comes to lend credibility of the greatest "Ponzi-Scheme" there ever was.

No matter what political system mankind lives in. There is always an "Elite" forming. (Even in old Communism). Accumulating a nations wealth in no time at all. As far as as our written history goes back, it has always been that way. Until today. To summarise: "Man is mans wolf". "The freedom of the wolfes is the death of the lambs". Or, according to my 2 Thai stepdaughters: No matter who is in power, we still have to go to work every day.

As you mention, a Dollar Put Option is another way to go. But notice: The Option is linked to a futures contract. That means not only come the "Carrying Charge" for the futures contract into play, you would also have to pay for the Dollar Put Option. In other words, before your "hedge" even starts to "hedge", the Dollar would have to have taken a historical nosedive already. Financing cost 23% plus 10% Option Premium = minus 33%. After that, your "hedge" will start to work. That makes for a lousy hedge. PS: If at all, something like that should be done via a internationally operating broker, not by any Thai Bank. They are not equipped to handle complicated "financial constructs". Not to speak of their high commissions, just for buying and selling Thai Stocks. I hate to think what they would charge if they have to involve a "Corresponding Broker".

The OP asked how much does it cost. In Dollar and Cents. Well, here it is: To establish "a hedge" with futures one must short the $ against the BHT. CAUTION: Often overlooked, "Carrying Charges / Financing Cost" come into play. Currently, a $ vs THB hedge would cost you a whopping 23.76 % per year. Extremely expensive. Source: https://www.oanda.com/uk-en/trading/financing-costs/

My Thai wife is now 20 years in my home country. Just back from her annual visit to Thailand. To visit daughters/family. She came back in some sort of a "somber mood". She claims that Thailand has not changed for the better. Complaining that 1 part of her Thai Family is well educated, with good jobs (financed by her), but still always short of money. The other part of her family is less educated and also always short of money, naturally. With a granddaughter, growing up in the Bangkok smog. The plan was, that after my demise, she would return to Thailand in old age. (Home country/family etc etc etc). Not anymore. She has made it clear, that after 20 years of residency in this small country in the middle of Europe is now her "Home Country", not Thailand anymore. She claims, that Thailand has given her nothing but hard labor, humiliation and Thai males that have seen a wife as something as a "sex slave" with a marriage certificate. (Long before some Europeans came to Thailand, looking for "sex-slaves"). That was her time in Thailand in her younger years. Then came the "white knight". = ME. She insists, that the "white knight" was the best thing that ever happened to her, elevating her from an underpriviledged lifelong Thai existance. We both like the way things have turned out.