Walker88

You really have no idea of the actual costs. Talk to a restaurant owner. Get a list of all of their costs....rent, staff salary, equipment, raw materials, cutlery, electricity, VAT, water, insurance, basic maintenance, accounting, legal, and a host of other things. The cost of raw materials might not be too high, but the selling price has to not only cover the foodstuff inputs, but contribute to all of those other costs. There's a reason 95% of restaurants fail in the first year, and it's because they post prices based on your 'logic' of what foodstuffs cost. Also, riddle me this: how much burger meat should Owner Guy order for the next week? Do you think any of the food inputs go bad, or is every restaurant not only 100% efficient, but 100% prescient to know exactly how many 'meat pies' to make?

I don't think bar owners should have input into my salary and bonus, and I don't tell them what to charge for a beer. I can sit and pay, or go elsewhere. Being a diehard Capitalist, I'm all in favor of folks, who put capital on the line, earning a profit. They post prices for their goods and services, and if enough people think they offer value, the business succeeds. I know the wholesale price of beer in Thailand. Buy at 7-11---a major bulk buyer and seller, besides being owned by a beermaker---and one pays very close to wholesale. Any independent bar or restaurant selling at that price is not going to come close to covering salaries, rent, electricity, insurance, VAT, etc. Those who don't want to pay what a bar asks can go to 7-11 and sit on the steps outside at Cheap Charlie's al Fresco Pub & Whine Bar.

I have no idea what your job or profession is or was, but my opinion is that you were grossly overpaid. Slash your compensation by 95% will teach you a lesson. I'll save my sympathy for bar owners (I'm not a bar owner). Yes, there's some sarc up there^ Perhaps you are unaware how bars and restaurants make a profit. Food has a low margin. Food by delivery service is a loss. Places closed because without booze they couldn't cover variable costs, and most were incurring fixed costs regardless of open or closed. Why should they add variable costs they cannot cover? You might argue, 'then raise the price on food', but GUARANTEED you would complain about that, too. I'm guessing only YOUR remuneration is sacrosanct. Every business owner, in your world, is a blood-sucking vampire.

Don't think it's 'one size fits all' re cities. Pattaya seems hellbent on changing its image. Maybe it will succeed, but at present Pattaya offers precious little besides the nightlife...at least for foreign tourists. Folks are well-advised to avoid the water, and there are few attractions that would entice tourists to come visit. Pattaya will, for a long time, be known for what put it on the map, so not only is there likely to be demand, but all over Isaan, Pattaya is known as a place where a farm fresh young female can go to make ends meet....and remit to the family back home. Thus, supply will be there, too. Maybe it shifts away from Walking Street, but it will be present somewhere in the city for those foreigners who still want to come to Pattaya. Otherwise Pattaya is likely to be much more Thai oriented....a family weekend destination from folks living in Bangkok. Bangkok is a different story. The nightlife is contained in a few places, and not so visible unless one actively seeks it out...such as in.Nana Plaza and the very short street Soi Cowboy. Patpong was dying before Covid, but is likely to keep a few bars, mostly catering to the Japanese who 'own' Thaniya Street nearby. Also, the folks with their hands in the game seem to be people with influence and power, so expect Bangkok to be cut some slack. Finally, the number of males who came to Thailand without at least a bit of curiosity about the infamous nightlife is lower than the number of winning Powerball lottery tickets. Those who claim it never interested them are likely sons of Pinocchio. Many who satisfy that curiosity become frequent visitors to the nightspots, and that's enough to keep the trade going and the cash registers ringing. Even visiting female tourists often enjoy at least a glimpse into what made Thailand famous throughout the world. The adult entertainment industry was a major employer and contributed to the (theoretical) low UE numbers during the debt-driven boom years of 2010-2020. After Covid, all of those workers are not going to be absorbed by other businesses and professions, so many will do what folks have done since humans wandered out of Oldavai Gorge: sell themselves to make money. Unless some major industries suddenly emerge in Thailand, or people decide harvesting rice is really entertaining and highly lucrative, there will be plenty of supply coming to market. I would guess that within a year the agogos of Bangkok will be as busy as they were in 2019, down perhaps from 2010, but major employers nonetheless.

I see that as most unlikely...that China comes out of this okay. When people had little to no expectations, the CCP could get away with a lot of things. Unfortunately for them, they overestimated their ability to command control an economy, but they succeeded in raising the expectations of the common people. China funneled massive amounts of private savings into money losing SOEs. China also did things like add more steel capacity in the last ten years than existed since Oldavai Gorge, but when there are no more Chinas or Romes or anything to build that requires steel. China has massive overcapacity in a host of things. The country even warehouses ghost cities...which are nothing but examples of once current labor morphing into bad debts. Even in a command controlled, theoretically communist economy, revenue minus costs = P or L, and for many things in China, it's a lot of L. The velocity of money is China is quite high, which means that there are more claims on the same yuan as there are on probably any major currency in any bank deposit system. When things get that crowded, defaults hurt the maximum number of people, all scrambling to get what they believe is their deposit. When China faces an internal crisis, the practice has been to manufacture an external bogeyman. Usually that is Japan, though sometimes it is the US, other times it has been India. In the past that has worked. If the Evergrande collapse cannot be controlled, savers are going to make runs on banks, as that money velocity thing comes home to roost. In the internet age, when even Chinese can access banned material via a VPN, Tor, Tunnel Bear or some other means, the people will be aware that the problem is not japan's, the US', India's or anyone else' fault except the CCP. China has done many things well, but has done an equal or greater number of things badly. Allowing their entire economic system to be dependent on domestic asset prices was the epitome of a Bubble Economy, no matter the productivity of the workforce. The egos of CCP leadership, as well as corruption, got in the way. All the massive amounts of funding funneled into SOEs was to hide the fact the bureaucrats were ultimately incompetent, as well as corrupt.

FX Reserves are a funny thing. It isn't just some box of money currently unused and looking for a place to go. Generally it is already committed to something, so removing it can affect some or other market. The notional number is false comfort.

Actually it is more. Beginning in about 2010 China began using proxies and offshore entities to mask their purchasing. Yes, they have sold down somewhat to fund their Belt & Road Initiative, but the combined direct ownership, proxy ownership, and private Chinese citizen ownership remains fairly substantial. In any event, prices are set on the margin. Even a 4% sale---using the official figures---would create a buyer's strike and at least a short term spike in rates. Perhaps the Fed could conjure another $trillion to absorb sales, but otherwise there isn't such a sizable pool of uncommitted funds sitting in a box somewhere that could take up what China might be forced to sell, hence 'prices are set on the margin'. In the bigger picture view, I always wonder how many hits sovereign debt and fiat currency can take before we stop suspending our disbelief that any government is ever going to repay or that any sort of transaction save for direct barter is a confidence game we all practice so as not to have to slaughter each other for food. I hope we agree to keep believing in ether. This is an aside, but consider how the EU 'solved' the 2008 crisis. It was faced with two problems: bad debts and high rates for sovereigns. It created what I call a Tautological Solution: it printed money, gave it to banks, and told them to load up on EU sovereign debt. That drove rates way down and allowed EU govts to fund their deficits (In Spain rates fell 700 basis points, for example). The banks also then had 'gains' which they could run through P&L and into capital reserves, thereby lowering the leverage ratio. It worked because the world NEEDED to believe in it. The US took a slightly different approach and forced banks to reduce leverage and issue new equity. That was slightly less smoke and mirrors than what Dragi and the ECB did. One more aside....ALL of these problems stem from a single thing: the loss of pricing power for labor and the various solutions societies created to try to appease the masses who are, in effect, redundant. Jobs did move to low labor cost places, but those are merely way stations on the road to oblivion, as technology will obviate them. Tech is also moving up the labor skill chain, so it isn't just the unskilled who will be made redundant.

Don't see those conspiracy theories here. What is undeniable is the the CCP acted incredibly irresponsibly when Covid first arose, squashing any mention of it and even jailing doctors who tried to speak out about it. Despite knowing that it was a dangerous and infectious virus, China allowed the masses to travel during Lunar New Year, and nations unaware what virus was emerging accepted millions of Chinese tourists, thus allowing the virus to go global. CCP had a responsibility not only to its own citizens, but to the entire world, to warn of the emerging virus and welcome any and all experts to look at data and virus samples and get to work understanding it and taking steps to mitigate its spread. The CCP failed, and two years later the world is still fighting, and dying, because of the fragile ego of the CCP.

If the Chinese property bubble bursts, the implications rival that of Covid. The CCP, a self-appointed government answerable to no one, has tried to build legitimacy via economic growth. A billion three hundred million folks were dangled the carrot of wealth, and that made them favorably disposed (somewhat) toward the corrupt, self-appointed, self-serving leadership. EVERYTHING is tied to property, and that includes the bank deposits of the 1.3 billion. A wave of property bankruptcies will lead to the evaporation of all of those bank deposits, given the way banking works with money creation that dwarfs even spendthrift governments like the US. When reserve requirements are what they are, a single yuan of bank deposit can become seven yuan with many different people claiming ownership of the same yuan. Dash the expectations of a billion plus folks, and it is conceivable the Cultural Revolution will look like a frat party in comparison. The world would not escape unscathed. First Chinese investment (such as in Thai property or the Road and Belt Initiative) would dry up. Next, a good deal of the world's manufacturing relies on a supply chain that often begins in China (e.g., Apple). Third, China still owns a few trillion dollars of US debt. Dump that and either US rates rise considerably, or else the US decides to default by CUSIP, choosing to not honor bonds held by China. Neither is pretty. Overall world rates could go either way. I can make an argument there would be a 'flight to safety', driving rates down. Just as easily one could make an argument rates will soar, and NO COUNTRY can survive if rates merely return to the historical norm. Since 2008 rates have been close to zero, which has given govts the ability to fund themselves. Consider the US, now with $27 trillion in debt. If the Yield Curve shifted to its historical norm, which is about 500-600 basis points higher, the yearly deficit would add an additional few $trillion as existing debt matures and was rolled over. (+270 billion for each 1% jump in the Yield Curve). The entire financial system of the world is based on suspended disbelief....and that includes cybercurrency. We all know inherently that what we consider money is just a confidence game where at least one party to a transaction has to believe in fiat or cyber or whatever folks decide is a means of exchange, though all has in inherent value of zero. China gave the world the all purpose curse: "May you live in interesting times". They may show us what that means (which they have already done by giving the world Covid-19). Things could get interesting-er.

As many people in the energy field have pointed out---and as some social commenters have pointed out (re the hypocrisy of many cybercoin-investing, but 'climate conscious' Millennials), the mining of bitcoin uses more energy than the combined energy use of the companies Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google and Netflix. A single bitcoin transaction uses more energy than 200 Visa or Mastercard transactions. Carbon neutral it ain't, but hey, those Millennials are 'entrepreneurs' and expert traders, on the cutting edge of 'modern finance'.

I read the LINKed article and noticed that from now 'amulet markets can open at the normal time'. Imagine my relief

First hand knowledge. I'll leave it at that.

To a certain extent masks work. The virus might be a hundredth the size of a bacteria, but it is carried on water droplets, and a mask will stop some from leaving one's mouth or nose (just as a tree that is mostly air, not branches, still stops a lot of golf balls). Thus, that is one reason to wear one in public. If I happen to be a carrier without knowing it, and I thus save even one person the pain (or worse) of catching Covid, that is worth it. It's the human thing to do. The second reason is that as a foreigner, I do not want to add to, or exacerbate, any xenophobia that may exist in some Thai people. After two years I'm pretty used to being masked and it doesn't bother me to have one on (unless I'm doing a vigorous workout). Thus, for me personally, the cost is nothing, I don't feel my "freedom" is being violated, and I am less likely to bother Thai people who may inherently fear foreigners.

Several ways this could go, one of them even being a positive. 1) Omicron could be easily spread and deadly 2) Omicron could be easily spread and about as deadly as existing variants 3) Omicron could be easily spread and less deadly than other variants. #3 is the best case, as a fast-spreading variant that isn't deadly could bring about the end of Covid, as its ability to spread quickly allows it to overwhelm the other variants. So far the evidence suggests Omicron spreads faster than Delta. Unknown still is how virulent---or not---it is.

Never fear; odds are there will be a new virus coming along in the near future. The bio-tech industry will never be starved for work. Since 1980, viruses have been coming fast and furious. It isn't just better detection methods; it is actual numbers. This has not gone unnoticed by the bio-tech industry, hence the buildup. HIV, SARS, MERS, Avian Flu, Swine Flu, West Nile, Ebola, Covid.....all since 1980, at least in widespread infection rates. Globalization has been a boon to the world of viruses, sending them fast, far and wide.

Well, crude prices fell 13% yesterday on the New York Merc, so perhaps a little relief is coming....for which the PM could even try to take credit.

I've been wondering why DDCI Cohen met with PM last week, as it was a bad optic, all things considered, for the DDCI to meet with a fellow who came to power via a coup and who retained power in an election many say was fraudulent. Perhaps Cohen was quietly delivering a message that Thailand would not be invited to this Democracy summit. Then again, maybe David just wanted to take advantage of a C-17 always on call on his behalf. It's kind of exciting to refuel mid-air, too.

No, President Biden can actually point out countries on a map. He also knows China and India share a long common border (and have historical issues over it), and would never call some South Asian countries Nipple and Button.

I originally came as a tourist, on a one month visa, early in the Year of Our Covid 1. I was granted the various amnesties, and then a couple of Covid extensions. That was back before Covid hit Thailand badly, but when it was hitting other parts of the world. I was thankful that I had permission to stay, even though I have none of the vulnerabilities Covid tends to exploit. Somewhere into an extension I saw a business opportunity and bought a Thai company. I applied for, and was granted, a Non-B Business Visa. I also transferred a rather substantial amount of money into Thailand to pay for the company I purchased. That would seem like a plus for the Amnesty-Extension program, even if it was serendipity. I know of others who were staying (as Tourists) because of the Amnesty-Extension, who were of means and thus spending a considerable amount of money each month...another plus for Thailand, for the hotels where they stayed, and for the places they ate and shopped. I did have some issues getting my 1 year Non-B Business Visa, as most people do. There were many 'hidden costs', but that is another matter. Suffice it to say the Amnesty-Extension has paid benefits to both parties....Thailand (and its still-employed workers), and the foreigners who were granted these stay permissions. There appears to be little to no downside to the program, hence the govt has chosen to continue it for the time being.

So you think the economy got the full "8% of the 20%" last year? I'm guessing it didn't. I'm guessing domestic tourism also felt the pain. Also, losing 80% of something that was 12% of GDP---even assuming they lost zero of that 8% domestic contribution--- is still a 9.6% loss of GDP, which by any economist's measure is butt ugly (a macro technical term). Toss in a temporary factory closure here and there due to a Covid cluster, and unless other parts of the economy kicked butt and took names (another macro technical phrase), DP probably took a big hit. My hotel had, at times last year and this, low single digit occupancy, vs what was at least 75% in 2019. 330 odd rooms with 10 rooms occupied does not equate to biscuits and gravy (yet another macro technical term). At least it stayed open. Many hotels closed for months on end. A walk along Sukhumvit and Silom, or Beach Road and Second Road, shows lots of boarded up shops. Again, unless some other part of the economy went gangbusters last year, the actual drop in GDP seems likely to have been closer to 10% (if two Quarters, that would qualify as something between a deep Recession and a Depression), rather than the meager drop the govt reports. Oh, and the official figure of 2.5% UE is just silly on its face, believed by no one.

I don't think the financial pain came as news to anyone to whom these petitions were addressed. "What? You're losing money? People have been thrown out of work? Bangkok can serve booze? Goodness, I didn't know!" was never spoken. There seems to be some other reason why Patts has been placed in a special category, and it doesn't seem likely it's related to Covid. Maybe the authorities give in, maybe they stick to their guns for whatever reason they have been sticking to them up to now.

"I think the map TAT gave us at the airport is wrong. According to the map this IS Nana Plaza, but I don't see Billboard or Butterflies anywhere!"

Since they only come out at night, they limit themselves to moonshine.

No. One more guess.

It was Somerset Maugham who once wrote that he'd met many men who spent their lives living the straight and narrow, and in their last days regretted not having sown a few more wild oats, while Maugham said he never met a man who had given in to carnal temptations who had any regrets whatsoever at the end. We all make choices. When our days are done, little matters and we get no points for living one way vs another. That fellow may have made choices different from what you or I might make, but it seems his choices made him happy. At his end he'll likely have no regrets but perhaps lots of happy memories. Is that shallow? By whose definition? Then he, like the rest of us, will transition into non-existence for all eternity, how he lived mattering not a wit. Personally I find other things sad....as we all have our individual likes and dislikes. I couldn't care less if I see a 60 year old man walking hand-in-hand with a 20 year old Thai woman. If that is what he came to Thailand for, good for him. If someone else came for the temples or culture (I would guesstimate that number as less than 10% of arrivals, at least male arrivals, and I think 10% is generous and allows some fudging for outright liars), good for them. I hope they, too, found what they wanted. What irks me, or rather what might lead me to say 'sad', is the man who let himself go, didn't take care of himself, and arrived at age packing 10-50 kgs of unnecessary bulk. It certainly has to detract from life, toting around all that useless fat, and it represents a healthbomb waiting to happen. Other people are fat and happy---their choice. My opinion on their girth doesn't matter, nor should it.