Walker88

Lots of production is down worldwide. Also, many imported goods are coming by air now (expensive, passed on to consumers), as importers don't have enough demand to fill a container and ship by sea. Fuel prices have also jumped considerably, so that factors into costs.

Recession is s definition: two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. I think I know what you meant, but the answer is that many 'ongoing concerns' have very thin margins, so drops in sales (what happens with a falling GDP) often means layoffs as firms try to stay as close to the black as possible. Layoffs directly lead to lower consumption, plus indirectly cause non-laid-off workers to cut back on spending out of fear. The non-official definition goes like this: a Recession is when your neighbor gets laid off; a Depression is when you get laid off.

David worked under John Brennan, never under Pompeo. Lucky him. Agency case officers, of which the reality is there are very few as a percent of the workforce, played 'case officer' with Pompeo, which means eliciting info from him. The views I note in the quoted message are real. Pompeo's views on religion make Mel Gibson's dad seem mainstream. Pompeo and Gen Kelly used to be part of a Wednesday 'prayer study group', despite Kelly being an Irish Catholic, and Pompeo being a fringe Christian with bizarre views. I always wondered how someone who was #1 at West Point could subscribe to such utter nonsense, plus incorporate it into his supposedly non-denominational work in a country with no official religion. Frankly, it was scary that someone with such views held such power. The agency was quite glad to see him go, though folks felt bad for what colleagues in Foggy Bottom inherited. State was gutted during his tenure, and sadly it is not being rebuilt by Blinken and Wendy Sherman, who want to play Henry Kissinger or Vernon Walters, as roving diplomats and rainmakers. Incredible amounts of expertise were lost during the previous Administration (the kind that could tell you Iraq would not instantly embrace democracy, nor that Saudi and another supposed ME ally were never anything of the sort). I fear for the future of US foreign policy and intel. NSA continues to do a great job, but there is far too much attrition from the agency. It needs to re commit itself to traditional espionage in a hi tech world, which means teaching many of the 'old ways' of working that rely more on street smarts and non-technical means. Think John Le Carre. David is a nice guy, but his expertise is in nuclear matters and energy, and that as an academic sort. The agency needs a field officer with lots of experience in the DDCI or Ex-Dir slot. State and the rest of the FP community needs more opinions, and the current FP team is an example of group think.

I just don't know what 'economic statistics' means anymore. I only know one would be wise not to put too much faith in them. In 2019 Tourism was reported to be 18.8% of Thailand's economy. Okay, that was both foreign and domestic, but Covid put a hit on both. If I'm generous and say Tourism only took a 50% hit, that still would rob the economy of close to 10% of GDP. "Somehow", the reported fall in total GDP is a sliver of that, even though many factories also shut down due to Covid clusters. Lose tourism, temporarily lose factories, yet only lose a tiny bit of GDP? Wonders never cease. Did rice exports surge? Did healthcare soar in terms of its impact on GDP? Maybe the changes to accounting rules (banks allowed to record imputed interest as revenue, even though borrowers were not paying) had a great impact? When I walk along Silom and Sukhumvit or Beach Road and Second Road, and see blocks of businesses shuttered, I wonder how the economy made up for those losses so it did not impact the GDP bottom line. The cynic in me suspects some accounting shananigans, but I cannot find data to prove me right or wrong. Common sense seems to say one thing, but maybe there's stuff I'm missing. I get the feeling that even if Tourism was downplayed in the 2020 and 2021 'official' GDP numbers, it will somehow and miraculously get added weight if arrivals suddenly jump. I remember years ago when another regional nation---China---once released its 4th Quarter GDP number in mid-December. That suggested to me that I should put a lot less faith in officially issued data.

Maybe the agency has a growing shadow, but there are still a few staffers who are as good as it gets. Sadly, many highly skilled people bagged it during the last Admin, as that guy tried to turn it into a political entity as well as a private hit squad. The former guy's first appointee---Pompeo---is a nutball. He actually believed he was appointed by White Jeebus to help bring about Armageddon, and he thought he could orchestrate it by getting the US into a war with Iran. (His 2nd wife wants him to be POTUS 47, while he wants to sit at the right hand of White Jeebus; neither, of course, is going to happen). Before the former guy nixed the extremely successful JCPOA (aka, the Iran Deal), the agency was required to do a periodic assessment of Iranian compliance. Iran always got 100% compliance, and they were effectively out of the nuke game (which was the primary goal of JCPOA; the secondary goal was to use JCPOA as a stepping stone to get Iran to stop other behaviors, like supporting Shi'a terror the way 'ally' Saudi supports Sunni terror). The then-Admin didn't like that, the POTUS because it was an Obama success story, and Pompeo because it got in the way of White Jeebus 'calling him home among the 144,000'. Also, the then-Admin did not want to hear anything negative about Saudi (like that MbS ordered the slaughter of Jamal Khashoggi), because the former guy had business and financing goals with Saudi) (On around the 2nd day of the former guy's Admin, he sent his son-in-law and bannon to the agency to see what its capabilities were. They were astonished at what the agency could do, and wanted all of that skill and tech to be used to go after domestic political opponents. People who were in those meetings were shocked at what that Admin had in mind.) The Israelis then got in on the act, hoping to win POTUS's undying love and support, so they produced docs claiming Iran was still in the nuke game. The docs were from 2002, and everything in them had been discontinued, some even before the JCPOA. It was pure BS, but it 'helped' the former guy justify pulling out of the JCPOA. Since then Iran has gone back to enriching U238 into U235, has rebuilt smashed high speed centrifuges, and has taken steps to restart its nuke development program. There is another Obama success story re Iran that has been noted in the press, but which remains theoretically classified. Suffice it to say the agency is hardly a shadow of itself when it can deliver the sort of program it did and which Obama allowed to proceed.

The paper given to Gen Powell was edited and re-edited many times. The late Tyler Drumheller kept writing the truth, and before Gen Powell ever saw it, Cheney had it re-written. Tyler edited it again, Cheney changed it back to the BS. It made Gen Powell look like a dupe and an idiot, when he was only the former, not the latter. When the UN inspection teams were still in Iraq, the agency gave them 'the best' intel on WMD sites, all provided by a single source (Curveball). The reason was because the agency did not believe the sites were real and wanted it proven so as to avoid war. Also, when the agency gives an asset a name like Curveball, it is for a reason. The inspection team found nothing. The agency folks hoped that could avoid war, but the Neocons were just dead set on war, saying it would be easy, the Iraqis would welcome us with rose petals, and a place that in its 5 thousand year history had had exactly zero seconds of democracy would instantly embrace the Western ideology. History proved otherwise, as well as proving the case officers and analysts of the agency got things as right as the filed of espionage allows. $3 trillion and a million dead could have been avoided.

Unlikely anything was 'up'. David might have wanted to pass along the Admin's thoughts on Myanmar or China/Russia's efforts to make Myanmar a vassal state, by coopting the coup plotters. David probably wanted to ferret out Thailand's views on China's tacit takeover of Myanmar. For some reason, Biden's FP team all seem to wish they were something other than what they are. The DCI wanted to be Sec State, and has acted as if he's SecState rather than DCI. David wanted to be DCI, but only got his second shot at DDCI. The main 3-4 (SecState, DCI, DNI and NatSecAdv) are all cut from the same cloth and are in danger of operating via groupthink. The only non-clique member of the FP team is SecDef Austin. My opinion is Biden erred in his selections and will suffer the consequences in terms of missing opposing views. He should have picked a career spook for DCI, or at least as DDCI. The COs and analysts of the agency are free thinkers and not beholden to one view. They will come to a conclusion and refuse to budge, unless new intel convinces them, while the DCI will want to go along with what DNI, SecState and NatSecAdv already believe (and think they know best). That is not the way it should work.

And you know that how? I'm guessing you have no clue what the agency has done over the last 40 or so years, but are convinced you're an expert, because you read something online. One of the 'jobs' of the agency has always been to be the sitting Administration's fallguy. In a way that serves the agency, as it keeps adversaries confused as to whether the agency is omnipotent or incompetent. The reality is in the middle, closer to omnipotent. I always laugh when I see folks say the agency got WMD in Iraq wrong. Not true. Because a negative cannot be proven, the agency had WMD at a low probability, but not zero. Cheney decided he wanted war, so ignored what the agency said, and got Tenet on board, against the advice of the agency folks who do the actual work.

Ah, no. Reality is quite different from pulp fiction and Hollywood B-fare. Most people would be almost embarrassed by the restrictions put on case officers and the agency on the whole. The one real negative over the last 40 or so years is the rendition program just after 9-11. Sadly, most of that was outsourced, using either other 'friendly' nations or else contractors who seem to have read the aforementioned pulp fiction or watched Hollywood B-fare. That doesn't absolve the agency of responsibility, but the vast majority of case officers were firmly against EIT, as was the DCI who came in after Petraeus (Brennan).

Wasn't that the name of George C Scott's character in Dr Strangelove? Okay, seriously, vulture capitalism and bottom fishing can be immensely profitable, but one must be very selective. A return to the past is an unknown at this point, as we've never experienced a worldwide collective experience like this one. Wars end and people make up, and the 1918 epidemic came well before int'l travel was the norm. This is uncharted territory. It's a parlor game guessing when the average person will feel comfortable enough to travel again---and that only when entry-exit become easier. That being said, some assumptions can be made. I would say the 'tourist' most likely to return is the single male, because the drives that bring that demographic to Thailand are eternal. Thus I might concentrate on Bangkok (Pattaya remains up in the air as a major family seems intent on carrying out its own rebranding of that city). In Bangkok, I would look inside the square represented by Siam to Thong Lo, Petchburi Rd to Rama 4, as that area allows access to Nana and Asoke. The major chains within that square have the fat to endure, but there are one-offs and possible boutique hotels that could be interesting. Also, restaurants within that square should fare well. The next demo that might return is the snowbird...folks escaping the frigid winters of some parts of the US and EU. Backpackers might be a third demo, as the young feel themselves invulnerable, so they will have little fear of getting sick, plus the trend in that age group is still geared toward 'experience' (so they can post on FB or TikTok). I would bet the family vacation is a thing of the past, and folks will remain closer to home.....Grand Canyon instead of Thailand. I think some of the old supposed 'major draws'---food, temples, shopping---are less of a draw now, as its a cost-benefit decision with a touch of fear. The impetus, it seems to me, will be 1) the biological imperative, 2) escape bad winters, and 3) the millennial 'experience'.

Two points....who the heck is this 17 year old that thinks he's skilled enough to: go to a protest in another State and determine who is a rioter and who is merely exercising First Amendment rights, and then thinks he's skilled enough with an AR-15 to use it merely to stop violence or protest himself, without hurting any innocents? 2nd point: At least some of the people who rushed a gun wielding and using an AR-15 (30 round mag of 5.56 NATO with a muzzle velocity of 3200fps, which makes it energy (killing power) about 4 times a .45CAP handgun or 3 times a 9mm shot from a handgun) did so without being armed themselves. Such people would have made good school cops at a place like Parkland. If one has shot an AR-15 or heard it in action, it is difficult to ignore the effect. It takes pretty big cojones to dare to go at someone so armed. My opinion is the kid is a hero wannabe and was messed up well before he took to killing people, and will be messed up even more after. His mom claims that "he wouldn't be alive today is he hadn't defended himself" (which may or may not be true, but it is ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN that if he had stayed home in Indiana and let TRAINED police do the job for which the taxpayer pays them, he wouldn't be on trial now and facing jail. In my opinion he is a perfect example of much that is wrong with the US now, and which shows no signs of getting better.....only worse.

I saw a tourist who seemed to be thrilled. He wasn't at the airport, however. He was walking down the street holding hands with a Thai woman who looked to be 30-40 years his junior. Funny what sort of things make people thrilled. For some, according to the PM, it's more machines at the airport that 'save their valuable time'. For others, it's the chance to engage in the biological imperative for just a token fee.

Thai people absolutely do not have sex. It's an entire nation of Immaculate Conceptions.

I represent a headhunting firm specializing in junta mouthpieces. I have two attractive positions I'd like you to consider. One is as a Talking Head on State-run TV in the DPRK, working under his glorious perfection-ness, Kim Jong-un. The other is something similar under Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow, the even more gloriously perfect man-god and flowing font of testosterone of Turkmenistan. Sycophancy pays big bucks if you can sell it with feigned sincerity. Take your pick: As an added incentive, Kim assures me he'll introduce you to his barber.

As I saw someone write on another forum, take Occam's Razor to the no-booze Pattaya issue, cut away anything that doesn't make sense, and what you are left with might just be the answer. I hope it's not, but 'never let a crisis go to waste' comes to mind.

I think we all know the elite and senior officials are immune from Covid laws

Come on, there's Hertz and Avis, Apple and Samsung, Ferrari and Lamborghini, Airbus and Boeing, Facebook and MySpace.....okay, 4 for 5 Why shouldn't there be SHA+ and ThaiStopCovid+ ? Everybody has to make a living, especially the authorities.

A common refrain I hear when speaking with Thai people is: "We Thais believe that.....(followed by some absolute nonsense)." It's incredibly uniform and ubiquitous. Much of these 'beliefs' involve superstition and myth, but all of it stems from the same process involved in general education: there is one and only one answer; you will learn it and never question its veracity. Everybody has to be on the same page. I suppose every culture and society has absurd beliefs, but I cannot think of any other place where there are so many covering almost every aspect of everything. Maybe it works for them, but having been raised with a few more choices, I would find such forced conformity stifling.

We all make choices as to how we behave and what we put in or on our bodies. This Swiss fellow took a different path than I would take, and no doubt neither of us could understand the other's choices. Given his current predicament, I guess at least some of my choices work out better in the long run.

A country decides what the goal of education is (obviously). In Thailand, the goal is not, and never has been, about fostering the kind of free thinking and creativity that leads to discovery and invention. While many nations have problems with their system and some odd goals, many do foster creativity, and that can be seen in what such nations produce and what their citizens add to the body of human knowledge. Thailand has around the 25th largest population on the planet (of approximately 200 nations and states), and has likely always been at that level, yet has added no discoveries, inventions or additions to the body of human knowledge in its entire history. That suggests, at best, a system with another goal other than creativity.. Rote learning and many sacred cows, whether that is elders or authority figures, does seem geared toward societal control. Perhaps that choice and system works for what leadership hopes to construct for Thai society. I'm not sure Western nations still follow the system under which I was schooled, but in the past educators accepted a kind of Pareto Principle re education, that most enduring value comes from the very few (Pareto is that 80% is achieved by 20% of any entity). Those with superior intellect, creativity and curiosity were given special treatment, grouped together, and allowed to run as far and fast as they could go. The results of nurturing and unleashing that intellect are clear, such as the instrument on which I'm now typing and the system that allows it to be posted instantly for anyone anywhere on the planet to see.

Whether 'entertainment venues' open or not on 16 Jan, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: Pattaya as it has been known is destined for the dustbin of history. It is going to morph from Sodom and Gomorrah to something closer to Disneyland. According to Forbes magazine, the major Thai developer Asset World Corp (AWC) has a plan and has already secured financing to remake Pattaya as both a family destination and a convention/conference/exhibition hub. AWC is led by Wallapa Traisorat, a London School of Econ graduate and daughter of SIno-Thai billionaire Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, the owner of Thai Beverage and a host of major hotels around the world. Getting financing for that family is about as difficult as Elon Musk affording another McLaren. The family is one of the biggest fish in the Thailand pond. "Thy will be done" applies to them. If I was the owner of Pin-up on Walking Street, I'd be heading to Bangkok right now looking to secure space in Nana Plaza or Soi Cowboy. I might even guess that the reason Pattaya remains dry today, even though Bangkok is freely serving booze, is yet another strongarm tactic to get the riff raff to make way for AWC. Never let a crisis go to waste.

A year and a half ago folks were offering predictions on when 'things would get back to normal'. The guesstimates ranged from "June" to the then-very pessimistic "end of 2020". When those dates passed guesstimates shifted to "June 2021" to "Dec". Now we're looking at mid-Jan. As winter sets in in the Northern Hemisphere, what is becoming increasingly apparent is that Covid is like the relative or college buddy who shows up at your place and will sleep on your couch 'just for a day or two'. A month later he's still there and is getting Amazon deliveries at your house. "Breakthrough" infections are, in some cases, quite serious. Some of the mRNA vaccines are showing massive drops in protection after 4-6 months, requiring booster shots. Covid is signalling loud and clear that it is not going to go away. I shudder to think what the headlines are going to be in Germany or the US or Japan come January. Unless this new Pfizer pill turns out to be as effective as initial reports indicate, the world---including Thailand---is going to have to decide if we are all going to live a sheltered life until the sun burns out (actually, it's going to mini-nova in 1.5 billion years and reduce Earth to a burned out cinder...for you science buffs) or else we're going to accept that life has a new threat that is going to take a good many people and cost a lot in terms of healthcare. (Optimists can say that if US GDP is 18% healthcare now, it will be 25% in time due to Covid). The Greek alphabet might have to be expanded, too, as soon we're going to get to the Omega Variant and need news letters. Jan 16? If the numbers in Germany ( a harbinger of things to come everywhere) et al keep looking ugly, that date, too, will be moved back......and back......and back. I swear I walked past the entrance of Nana Plaza in BKK the other day and "World's Largest Adult Playground" had been replaced by Dante Alighieri's "Abandon all hope, ye who enter here".

Very simple: "You have a problem here (with a document no one ever requested). For XX,XXX baht, we can fix it today. Up to you." The demand for a tribute is made up on the fly, after they assess your ability to pay. It is no more complicated than that.

Since you asked..... Getting a Non-B Business/Investor visa is a multi step process requiring around 100 pages of documentation, submitted on multiple occasions. You receive a number of different temporary visas, each with the usual 'under consideration' stamp. After two temps you apply for the one year, which requires the same application of 100 pages of docs you submitted for the first two temps. Besides many pages of fake and contrived 'action photos' of you at work, there is the DBD filing that notes the business and capital, as well as copies of your VAT filing for the months you operate under the temp visas. The IOs can asses your 'ability to contribute to their lifestyle' by reviewing the numbers. At every step of the way, despite using an agent, 'something is missing' came up, despite the fact the IO did not even review the stack of docs. Put the pile in front of her, she leafs through without looking, then announces an 'issue'. "Fortunately" for you, she has a quick solution and tells you that if need be, there are many ATMs downstairs. In my case there were three times when 'issues' were discovered that required ATM visits. There is no attempt to hide what is going on, which made me realize that not only is it common, there is no chance anyone will be punished for 'supplementing their income'. They also seem to find issues when it gets close to expiration of the temp visa, so that you fall into overstay. You then get scolded like a schoolboy, pay a fine, then sign a doc admitting you're a bad boy. Next time you try to avoid that silliness by applying a few weeks before expiration. That's part of the Learning Curve. Speaking with numerous other folks on similar visas who have set up or bought businesses here, I learned my experience is the norm. Often the 'issues' are rather foolish. One poster on this site noted that he was dinged because in his 'action shots' he was not wearing a suit and tie. From speaking with my agent, I understand that the IO position addressing Non-B Business Visas is the most sought after job in Immigration, as it affords an officer the greatest opportunity to be 'tributed'. As I noted in my other post, even my accounting firm withheld a doc because I did not use their agent service in trying to get my Non-B, instead using another agent. It took them six weeks to produce a one page doc, and that slowness put me on overstay. I suspect for large multinationals all of this is not even a rounding error, but for smaller businesses and entrepreneurs, it is both irritating and an unwanted expense. Lost in all of this is that folks like me create and/or maintain dozens of jobs for Thai workers. Maybe it's not the 20K jobs a major mulitnational creates, but add all of us up and it's a lot of Thai people with gainful employment. It is a shame that Imm practices discourage this type of FDI. The process has me reassessing my situation. If this is what I can expect again when I renew, I will likely close shop, accept the loss of my sunk costs, and leave the country. The thread concerns the country's efforts to 'attract more expats'. Do you find what I wrote an attraction?

While falling into one of their coveted categories of welcome farang, I am rather hesitant about moving any substantial sum of money into the country. Rules change, and rarely do they change for the benefit of non-Thais. When I say 'rarely', I am being generous, as in "rarely does one win the Powerball $billion lottery" or "rarely does an extinction level event comet strike the Earth". That kind of 'rarely'. Only what I can afford to lose will ever arrive on these shores. Perhaps like the proverbial whiny farang, the Immigration system continues to bother me. I understand rules and restrictions, and I certainly appreciate the difficulty average Thais have trying to visit my country, but those who can visit my country do not face the abject corruption foreigners face here with Immigration. Yes, one can use an agent (I do), but it still results in demands for tributes all along the way. Also, everyone gets in on the act. The accounting firm who handles the business I own here would 'prefer' that I use their service to handle Immigration issues. I choose not to do so. That has resulted in the firm---quite soon to be former firm---dragging its feet on documents I need to add to the onerous 100-page application for my visa. Their failure to produce a one page doc held up my application and actually put me on overstay. Obviously it is my fault for buying a business here without fully appreciating all the nonsense I would be forced to endure. I knew, but figured---wrongly---I could somehow avoid it. I waver at the moment as to whether I'll just accept the sunk cost, shut it down, and pull up stakes, or stay and 'hope' things get easier. Perhaps the govt believes there's plenty of other suckers like me out there to fill the void if and when I depart. Who suffers when either businesses depart for greener pastures or never come in the first place? It's the average Thai, the folks who are given jobs due to FDI. Clearly these people are not a priority in the eyes of the ruling elite. Rules are made to benefit those who already have plenty, and if a rule change does benefit the common Thai, that is merely serendipity, not conscious intent. What they fail to realize is that a smaller piece of a bigger pie might be larger than the piece they already get. On the other hand, perhaps the intent is control, and the elite gladly accept a larger piece of a smaller pie so long as they remain the biggest fish in the puddle.