Walker88

The govt is going to goal-seek. It's clear in their statements that they are intent on creating what they want folks to believe, whether it's real or not. They will limit testing so as to limit 'new infections', and send more people home as 'cured' when they're not quite cured. Two things are likely driving this: -the constant daily protests calling for the PM to go away -economic pain even beginning to hit the hi-so 'donor' class They seem hellbent on giving 'relaxation of restrictions' a go. They will do it and hope to get lucky. They tried this once (or twice or thrice?) and then had to put restrictions back on. Third (fourth?) time's a charm. Maybe they will get lucky. One has to think it's personal interest, not the public good, driving this nascent trend toward re-opening. I do hope they get lucky, but with vaccines still quite limited and supplies coming in only slowly over the next 4 months, they are going to need a lot of luck. As in the previous re-openings, they will move in stages...from public parks 1st to last (someday in the distant future) bars.

A guess on the first 'relaxation measures'.... -open public parks -open IT stores in malls -open hair salons with every-hour-cleansing requirement (which none will do) -change curfew from 2100-0400 to 2200-0400 (I think similar to last year April) -allow restaurants to deliver until 2100 Next round: -allow sit-in dining, but no alcohol with meal (unless in a coffee cup) -open 'foot massage' (which means EVERY massage parlor in Thailand re-opens, and few feet get any treatment) -open other mall shops for limited hours and 'strict' customer limits (which will be ignored) -open swimming pools In other words, we'll go back to June and see what happens I suspect it will be a while before gyms re-open and restaurants can serve alcohol. It will be a loooooong time before bars re-open.

I don't see anyone disparaging the efforts of the healthcare community. The post to which you reacted seems to have been taking exception to the govt, which failed to get sufficient vaccines in a timely manner, and thus cannot supply those performing the 'vaccination efforts' with enough medicine. Do the math on what's on hand and what is coming when. A shortage develops next month, unless some the PM can play Jesus with the loaves of bread and fish. Nobody is going to blame healthcare workers for the govt's failures. As for not appreciating healthcare workers, articles have appeared in various Thai media reporting that healthcare workers showing up for the donated Pfizer jabs were told they would get AZ instead. Who got the Pfizer? Seems the govt doesn't respect the efforts and risk being faced in the healthcare community.

When the rules are changed so that: -You need not report actual NPLs, as there is a 'debt moratorium'. -Imputed interest (interest customers should have paid, but did not) can be run through the P&L Everything is coming up roses.

I believe it's "due to the gloriously fantastic vaccination efforts, we are now moving at twice the speed light towards 300% of population....." When one is auditioning for a spot on the North Korean Govt Media Team, no hyperbole is too much.

The quote is the most misused piece of verbiage coming out of Einstein's mouth. He was a non believer. He also would not be so goal-seeking as to think---even if he thought some entity created the Universe (which he did not)---that any deduction as to good or bad entity, one or many entities, purpose or no purpose of home sapiens, or any of the other things those with 'faith' have decided must be true simply because the Universe is here was logical. The height of non-logic is: the Universe is here, therefore there is only one god, he loves me, he is pure love, and his rules say no lying, cheating, stealing, killing, cussing, missing Sunday service, coveting neighbors goods and wives, and dishonoring your birth mother and sperm donor....and follow all those rules you get a seat in some celestial country club because the deity knocked up an Earthgirl and let the kid get nailed.

Nobody is going to convince anyone else of anything. Nor is anyone ever going to 'know' who was right, because dead is dead, and we're all heading that way. We'll go full circle and become part of another star similar to the one that once had our end-of-life atoms as part of it. (Since the body is always replacing structures and cells, save perhaps for some neurons, the atoms we contain at death are quite different from the ones we contained at birth. It's possible an atom or two that is 'me' was once part of Shakespeare. All that is kind of cool and much more interesting than virgin births.) Even as science continues to reveal the reality of existence, many choose to hold onto Bronze Age myth, because the idea that existence on an individual level has no actual meaning save for what each of us makes of it, is too unsettling for many. So be it. A child with an imaginary friend either needs to grow out of it or get counseling. An adult with an imaginary friend is 'spiritual'. An adult with an imaginary friend who isn't on the list of accepted Imaginary Friends is considered psychotic or schizophrenic. That's kind of funny. If I fight a paternity suit by claiming some deity made my woman pregnant, I would get hammered in a court of law. If some Bronze Age guy says that, or if an adulterous woman uses that as an excuse to her husband or boyfriend, great cathedrals are built celebrating those lies or delusions. Mary is lucky neither Nazareth nor Bethlehem had DNA testing. That, too, is kind of funny. If I have a problem with faith, it is that it so easily breeds ignorance that causes harm, and harm to others than the 'believer'. Whether the harm comes in the form of a fanatical terrorist or one who scorns masks and vaccines during a pandemic because their opportunist charlatan preacher pretends he got a message from some deity, it is still harm to innocents. Also, 'faith' leads to people discounting science, and gives the upper hand to societies who move science forward rather than continue to embrace silly superstition. That can be economically damaging. This thread is for entertainment purposes only.....kind of like a Sunday Sermon....entertainment purposes only. Are you not entertained! (Gladiator) To paraphrase my long post, some of us choose modern medicine, some still prefer leeches.

What you are incapable of understanding, or what interferes with a belief system based on myth and superstition manufactured by Bronze Age guys, is termed 'pseudoscience'. Okay. Up to you.

As Bokonon asks us to sing along in one of his Calypsos Tiger got to hunt Bird got to fly Man got to sit and wonder, why, why, why Tiger got to sleep Bird got to land Man got to tell himself he understand Oh, and because a negative cannot be disproven, Bokononism is as real and legitimate as any faith. It’s certainly as legit as a Universe created by a deity---One, incidentally, not two or ten or a hundred million or a team, or competing teams of deities who take turns creating Universes to see which team can make a better one----for reasons that seem all too human: a need to be praised for its greatness. (Note: while most major superstitions are mono-Skydaddy-ish, Hinduism has at least 3 million deities....and that gives us endless festivals because, on average, 10,000 of them have a birthday on any given day.) From time immemorial to 13.8 billion years ago, this deity apparently did nothing. Then for reasons unexplained by any of its followers (Boredom? Need to be praised?), it decided to create a Universe of a few trillion galaxies, each with trillions of stars, most with orbiting planets…..and in one pedestrian galaxy, in one obscure corner, around one very average star, on one planet, ‘created’ a species ostensibly in its image, whose sole functions are to follow a set of rules some guy claims to have been handed on top of a mountain when nobody else was looking, and praise the entity that dictated those rules. Along the way---in a Universe of ever exploding stars, and on a planet rife with natural disasters and plagues and wanton purposeful destruction---said deity knocks up an Earthgirl, plays deadbeat dad, then sits back and watches as the now-adult kid gets nailed to a cross---all so other members of the species on this obscure planet in some meaningless place in a massive Universe, who follow the rules the guy who will one day be played by Charlton Heston claims were handed him on a mountaintop, can get into some country club in the sky that the deity created---so that it can be praised incessantly until time itself ends. There seems to be precious little difference between these praise-needing deities and North Korean dictators. All of that silliness somehow seems to be deduced from the mere fact that the Universe exists and some folks cannot explain how it could materialize from ‘nothing’, while their deity had absolutely no problem performing that magic act of materializing from nothing by claiming it always was and always will be. Oh, and because the Universe does exist, those rules are not to be violated lest one risk the wrath of this vessel of Pure Love ©, the one whose Master Plan involves such loving features as tsunamis and earthquakes, childhood cancer and other ‘mysterious ways’ of demonstrating ‘greater love no man has’. Really, one might think an entity that had all the time in the world----from time immemorial until 13.8 billion years ago---could have come up with a better Master Plan. Not having the need to believe in anything other than the individual randomness of my existence, it always puzzles me how so many---some of whom are otherwise intelligent---need to grasp on to such myths and superstitions, manufactured by people who didn’t even know the Earth was round. That’s like seeking out a doctor skilled in bloodletting rather than a modern hospital with fancy machines like MRIs and a pharmacy stock full of life-saving potions. “You want the antibiotics or the leeches, Sir?” “ I’ll go old school. Give me the leeches. Those guys knew.” So obvious were all of these deities created in man’s own image, that it is a constant amazement that people refuse to see that patently obvious reality. I also wonder why none of the “Try MY Brand of Faith” folks who claimed to have their deity on their LINE contact list never said anything that wasn’t already known. Not a thing came from anyone from Moses to Jesus to Mohd to John Smith to L Ron Hubbard that wasn’t known. Not a single one ever noted things like….there’s a continent out there where part of it will someday be called the US of A, or that Tom Brady would win at least 7 Superbowls. Certainly their deity could have built itself a ton more credibility by letting on a secret or two. Instead, just rehashing of the usual social constructs of “be nice”, and then maybe some rules that make absolutely no sense but must be followed by true believers (don’t be a practicing gay, women have to cover their faces, no pig eating, etc.) So since nobody, self-proclaimed prophet in touch with a deity or otherwise, ever revealed any information not yet known, that leaves the fallback term “faith” as the only thing between common sense reality and superstition. As for such spurious arguments as “Well, why not accept Pascal’s Wager?”, Pascal must have forgotten that there are many more belief systems than Christianity, so a proper wager would have to be a choice among five or six major faiths and dozens of smaller ones. Odds are just as good for an agnostic or atheist as one who latches on to Jesus, but finds out John Smith nailed the “One Truth”. Uh oh! Bad choice, you Christians. The really big joke is that since there can be at most only one “Truth”, all non,-truth faiths were created either by a liar or a maniac. There is no other possibility. Since at least 4 faiths have a billion or more followers, that means billions are living a life of delusion, and as science keeps revealing, likely all four of those major faiths. Each of us gets one shot at existence, yet billions choose to be deluded for the duration. Okay. Looking back on what I wrote, I submit Bokononism makes a heck of a lot more sense, even though like the crypto Dogecoin, it was made up as a joke. As Dogecoin shows us, even jokes can gain a rabid following.

And the Earth MUST be flat; otherwise we'd all fall off. Can't see any force that would keep me tethered to the dirt under my feet, while doing the exact same thing to a guy on the opposite side of the planet. I mean, our feet would be facing each other, sole to sole. Makes no sense, so it cannot exist.........unless.......it's a miracle created by my pure-loving Skydaddy so as to allow both me and the guy on the opposite side of the planet to get on with our duty of offering Skydaddy endless thanks and praise. Actually, physicists have an answer now to the old saw about 'how can something form from nothing?' It's difficult to understand, just as gravity (an acceleration of spacetime) was difficult to understand for dyed-in-the-wool Flat Earthers. Even consciousness is now becoming understood for what it actually is......a vast collection of sensory stimulations that are instantly backward looking in time, all carried on a brain architecture of neurons and mini-fibules that can carry impulses generated by charges on large molecules of neurotransmitters. Skydaddies are kind of like monarchs and other royalty in modern Parliamentary Democracies. Bit by bit their jobs and duties are being lost to elected officials, so that they are becoming mere vestiges of bygone era, anachronisms with no use nor value other than as silly symbols or caricatures in the gossip pages of tabloids.

Math can be deceptive. It can also be abused. Reduce to the ridiculous: Day 1: 1 ICU. Day 2: a second ICU....Oh my! 100% increase! A week later 30 in ICU: Rate of growth, which is less than 100%, shows a decline. Moving averages do not smooth that. Any initial increase over a small number is a large percent, while once overall numbers are large, the percent change is obviously less than when the universe was small. Also, one performing such math gymnastics has to assume all data is accurate and reliable. Also has to assume an infinite number of ICUs and ventilators, as otherwise the rate of growth is capped by the facilities available. Thailand does not have infinite ICUs nor ventilators, thus nothing can be deduced from your math.

I'm not down on them (there's a double entendre there for the taking). They are a product of their culture. Even if they have faults, that doesn't mean they lack all socially redeeming qualities. Many are delightful people. The point I made is that they---and all of us---are honed and tempered by the culture within which we were raised. Tough to escape the qualities that culture inculcates in us.

You're a jaded cynic, but I can't find too much fault with your argument (which might make me a jaded cynic, too) Every country has corruption, but here it's ubiquitous. It's elected officials, petty bureaucrats....all the way down to taxi drivers and scheming bargirls. I don't necessarily fault any of the lower-strata corrupt types, because they have learned that in life one is either a fleecer or the fleeced, often both. There is no culture of earned achievement or lifting one's self up by his/her bootstraps; it's more he who scams first, scams best. Culture is difficult to overcome, as one is honed by its warm embrace. A place where some are semi-divine merely by virtue of birth, while others gain from a supposed previous existence nobody remembers (because it's silly superstition) tends to create an environment where hard work and honest effort can be viewed as pointless or for mugs and suckers. It's no wonder in such a culture, despite its claimed age, there is a sum total of zero additions to the body of human knowledge, nor a single invention or discovery of note. That is actually astonishing, as in terms of population, the country is something like #25 in the world. Bargirls are thus a product of the culture in which they grew up. Their looks or body is a gift for past life nobility, so they put those gifts to work trying to get ahead in the manner her society demands, which is finding someone to scam. It's not easy to be objective, see what traits one inherited by virtue of birth and rearing, and remove the ones that either are unattractive or immoral (by whose definition?), and developing a humanistic approach to life. Like corruption, most societies also have deeply held beliefs that are nothing more than silly superstition. EVERY indication is that the Universe is random at the personal level, that existence has no meaning whatsoever except it is, and yet most people need to manufacture a framework in which they can fool themselves into believing they have more control and relevance than they do. They do illogical things like thinking they 'make merit' by releasing birds or fish somebody else caught for the sole purpose of making money selling to such addled brain believers (apparently merit is neither created nor destroyed, but what is lost in capturing a bird is gained by its release....it's almost Newtonian!). People also need to believe there is some entity in charge...sometimes Earthly, sometimes celestial...and that entity need not be good, but just in charge. Deals can be made even with a malevolent entity; no deals can be made with a random Universe. So folks whose ostensible goal is to reach a point without want or need, pray for anything and everything they shouldn't want nor need, and then expect to get it because they let a bird go or gave tribute to someone with power.. It's all so befuddling that it is hardly any wonder that folks---bargirls---end up as they do. They are too deep in the weeds to escape their conditioning. Perhaps we Westerners are, too, caught up in our own cultural beliefs and peculiarities, but I think more of us are able to separate ourselves from our upbringing and take a more honest look at it. I think we owe folks like Francis Bacon, Spinoza, Desiderious and others some thanks for opening a door to objectivity. Here, few can do that (be objective), hence what you note in your post.

According to Johns Hopkins Medical, the worldwide mortality rate from Covid infection is 2.15%. Countries now suffering higher infection rates are moving toward that figure asymptotically.

I believe you meant 'fill a void', and indeed they are intended to do just that.......fill a void where a woman feels empty and un full filled, so to speak. No doubt this arrest was the climax of a long and multi-pronged investigation, a riveting case with many ins and outs. Kudos to the BiBs for penetrating this lascivious crime enterprise. We men can all sleep soundly now knowing we still have a job. That being said, like many things in Thailand, illegality is a fluid concept. Sidewalk vendors on Sukhumvit deal in such novelty items, along with bedroom pharmaceuticals, switchblade knives and brass knuckles, and I have been to a downtown market where dozens of vendors sell these carnal novelties, while the vendors next to them have table after table of e-cigarette machines and associated paraphernalia, which---to my understanding---are also illegal.

If that ~ $81 billion is a true estimate, and Thailand has a shade under a $500 billion GDP, then how does that same BoT conjure up +1.3% GDP growth from that? Even if that loss is spread over 2 years, that's at least an 8% drop in GDP. Given Tourism was 18.8% of Thai GDP in 2019, and it's now but a fraction of that, the actual GDP decline is likely quite a bit higher.

So if I understand correctly, only absolutely essential shops can remain open. This includes banks, grocers, pharmacies and Indian tailor shops.

It's not so simple. First, despite all the comments over the years that 'jobs are plentiful in booming Thailand', that is not reality. Hundreds of thousands of people could never get 'normal jobs', as virtually everything was saturated. (Go into a Tesco or Big C and see dozens of superfluous workers sitting in the aisles, chatting up their mates, occasionally re-stocking a shelf.) The bar/agogo industry was then there to absorb the excess....bargirls, wait staff, security, bartenders, etc. Second, the consequences for one's behavior are in no way equal between the genders. One spontaneous romp in the hay between teenagers changes one life irrevocably but is less than a mosquito bite for the other. Only one gender gets pregnant. A boy can father a child and never miss a day of school. If he's not a slacker, he can complete his education. A pregnant girl is often forced---by schools or her own/her family's 'face'---to drop out. Rarely do these females go back to school after the child is born (abortion is pretty rare in the provinces). There's also a new mouth to feed. These females are the prime candidates to head to Bangkok or Pattaya to do the few things their limited educations allows. Some might find factory work, make 9000-12000 baht a month, but that may not be enough both to live and remit funds back to Isaan to care for the baby. Others get enticed by rumors of big money available working the agogos. It's not easy to understand for those of us never faced with such choices, but getting dressed up and made up, having disposable income, being able to go party with friends, and being told incessantly one is 'beautiful' seems glamorous to a female raised in the back of beyond in Isaan. Yes, I'm sure that if that was my Birth Lottery Runner-up Prize, I would behave quite differently and make sure I completed my education, worked my tail off, and overcome the consequences of my spontaneous teenage behavior, then would have gone on to live a productive and noble life that did not put me in a position to let others ravage my body so that I could take care of my kid. /sarc Actually, I wasn't born female to uneducated parents in rural Isaan, so I was way ahead of the game at birth, through no fault or effort of my own. Where and how one materializes on Earth is random chance. On a spectrum of lucky to unlucky, it probably goes 'white male born in the West between 1950 and 1990' to 'female born in Afghanistan in the old or new Taliban Era'. If one were to place 'female born to uneducated parents in Isaan' on that spectrum, it would be a heck of a lot closer to the Afghan girl than the white Western male. Yes, everyone plays the cards he or she is dealt, but it's a heck of a lot easier if one's hand isn't 7-high in various suits. It would take rare skill and drive to win the pot with that hand.

Harsh reality seems to have forced authorities around the world to have a new goal with regard to Covid (even if no one has stated it explicitly). This new reality comes from now knowing Covid is not going to go away, even if vaccinations are widespread. The 'herd immunity' meme that was popular last year is now recognized to be wishful thinking. The battle against Covid isn't going to go away, 'magically' or otherwise. The new goal is: reduce Covid at least to the threat level of seasonal flu. This can only be done through widespread vaccination and (likely) yearly booster shots. Some need to be reminded that Covid is not 'just the flu'. Covid, at least using US statistics, has a morbidity rate at least 16 times higher than the common yearly flu. With vaccinations, Covid's virulence can be dramatically reduced. Indeed, the majority of Covid deaths now happening in the US are among the un-vaccinated. Sadly, there are now reports of twice-vaxxed people succumbing to Covid, though the numbers are quite small. Vaccination gives people the best chance of survival. In a morbid sort of way, this is probably good news for the likes of Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca et al, as they will be called upon to produce billions of booster shots each year. Currently many people take a yearly flu shot, but given the much more lethal threat of Covid, many more will choose to take a Covid booster. It may even be required, at least at the private sector level. The best case scenario is that yearly Covid deaths are brought down to roughly the level of yearly flu deaths. Covid will be yet another pathogen we'll all want to avoid, but if we're lucky it can be controlled to such an extent that it will no longer cause healthcare systems to be overrun nor societies to be forced into lockdown. We're not there yet, and won't be for the better part of a year, as there are still some 8-10 billion doses of vaccine still needed just to get the world population up to 70% vaxxed (with 2 jabs per person). Also, widely vaxxed populations---for example the US, Canada, EU, Israel---are now gearing up for boosters. A cynic can admit that somebody's cash register is going to be ringing madly. Ideally it will be Big Pharma, and not morticians, undertakers and crematorium facilities.

Ah.....no. Here's the US as an example. In the last 10 years, 360,000 Americans died from the common flu. In just one year, 610,000 Americans died from Covid. 610,000 in 1 year vs an average of 36,000 per year. That is hardly 'identical' morbidity. The mortality rate from Covid---all variants---is 2.15%, according to Johns Hopkins Medical. That rate is likely higher for the Delta variant.

Anybody tried to find an open bank lately? Mall branches are closed, and non-mall branches are often shut because Covid was found inside. The branch open yesterday might suddenly be closed for the next 14 days. If one has banking business that cannot be handled online or via an ATM, best get to the bank branch (if one can find an open one) right at 0830 opening. Come at 1000 and get a queue # that places you perhaps a hundred customers in the future. Plus, a limited number of folks are allowed inside, so most of the hopefuls are waiting on the sidewalk. Adding to the difficulties, business that cannot be handled online or via an ATM tends to be complex, so each customer takes a while. Before I learned my lesson and started getting to the branch just after 0800, I had a four hour wait at one of my banks. The first three hours were spent on the sidewalk. Folks weren't exactly queuing to get an inside seat. When a seat became available, there was a rush to the door to get in and escape the outside heat. Once I realized everyone who beat me to the bank had already gotten an inside seat, I played 'ugly farang' and bullied my way inside (though it was my turn). I guess we're in the tropics, so it's 'law of the jungle'......whoops....'rainforest'. The word 'jungle' has been PC-86'd. Bottom line: perhaps consider opening a few mall bank branches, as the outside wait is still in an aircon environment.

There's an old quote the source of which I cannot find: "If my demons leave me, I fear my angels will soon follow" Like it or not, Pattaya, at least for foreign tourists, is the nightlife. Take that away---"make it a 'family destination'"---and not only does the city die, but the industrial corridor from Bangkok to Patts dies. One of the reasons so much FDI went into that corridor, is because senior management of those factories liked the proximity to Walking Street (or the Bangkok equivalents) for weekend fun. Foreign management tolerated the nonsense associated with investing in Thailand (visa problems, work permit difficulties, graft and corruption, high taxes on such things as cars and booze) because they could have fun hitting the spots that made Pattaya famous. Already firms, especially Japanese firms, are amortizing existing Thai factories and plants and shifting to friendlier environs like Vietnam. Take away the nightlife and that trend will accelerate. The industrial corridor will begin to take on the appearance of Chernobyl. Current pie-in-the-sky fantasies have the sea side of Walking Street turned into 'luxury shops and upscale restaurants'. For whom? Tourists who want to pay two times the price for goods they can buy back home? Tourists interested in eating locally harvested seafood full of bacteria or heavy metals ? Thailand isn't the only SE Asian country with a coast. Why would foreign tourists or 'families' choose a destination with dirty water and nothing to titillate Dad? Even the myriad busloads of Chinese tourists used to follow their flag-bearing guide up and down Walking Street to gawk at the scantily clad women. Perhaps a Patts without the pre-Covid nightlife holds appeal to Bangkok-based Thais, but that isn't the city's bread and butter. Take away Walking Street, which is also a kind of euphemism for all Pattaya nightlife, and tourism revenue will fall to maybe a quarter of what it was in, say, 2018. Such revenue hardly justifies the massive investment that would be required to create the Pattaya or officials' dreams and fantasies.

Very good question. An acquaintance (late 30s, male, quite fit, no underlying maladies or issues) spent a few weeks in a hospital, suffering mostly blood clots due to Covid. After a negative PCR test he was declared 'recovered' and sent out. He has ongoing balance issues, extreme leg pain, some mental fog, and liver damage (either from the virus or drugs administered to treat it.). Currently being treated for Hep A. Recovery seems to be a path, not a destination. A cynic might also say (based on rumors I have heard from the medical community), it means "Some hi-so family offered us big money for your hospital bed, so time for you to go".

Thank you to those who responded and said, yes, what I experienced is typical. Corrupt to the core and juvenile at the same time. Diogenes lantern would burn out if his search had been in this country.

It is either the height of naivete or the height of cynicism where an official can say 'no strings attached' to valuable drugs plus money that goes to a self-appointed govt who took original power in a coup. Reports in a host of media have already quoted frontline medical workers as saying they went in for their Pfizer booster shot and all they got was an AstraZeneca. No strings, perhaps, but some corrupt paws seem to be firmly attached.