herfiehandbag

Please, don't go putting ideas out there...

By all accounts for the first few hours they were very calm. You see, they believed it was unsinkable, and that everything would carry on as before; then...

Unfortunately the Constitutional Court is fully occupied with a number of other cases at present. They may be able to hear a petition from Pita in about 12 months.

Ah, 'tis a while since we have heard from the "Thailand is not ready for democracy, the people cannot handle it" school of thought! Deep in the undergrowth the slumbering fascists stirred, their tight starched uniforms ready in their closets!

As someone once said, in an entirely different context on the other side of the world - but also underlining politics with the threat of force - " they haven't gone away you know". The powers and the bodies remain extanct.

Interesting semantics, they no longer see themselves as "caretakers" but as an "interim government". They perhaps anticipate being a presence for the foreseeable future, and are starting to react to/moving to deal with protests and street opposition. Will the mantra be " opposition protests are a threat to the economy"?

Revolt does not necessarily mean violence. Violence is far more likely to be initiated by the government in an attempt to cling to power.

That is why the present government intends to remain in place. They have to construct the replacement.

Utter rubbish. You know full well that they would have manufactured some other charge against him, and Move Forward.

Let's be quite sanguine about this; When Pita is ruled against, he will be disqualified from Thai politics for ten years, he will be in prison, and his party will be disbanded.

Nonsense. In virtually every Western democracy the government in power was put there by the electorate. It may well be a party of which you do not approve, but that is a very different matter.

Unfortunately those " born to rule" will also be creating " loopholes". They control the ( discredited and discreditable) machinery to do so. Their is only one tool in the younger Thai's toolbox. Revolt.

Which rather assumes that they will take any notice of Parliament! They have ignored them and their electoral mandate to select a government. Why should they be remotely bothered about taking any notice of them when it comes to governing?

Yes. It will require the political equivalent of lifting up a large flat stone in a dark damp place so he can slither out, but that, I think, is the intention. They obviously don't want Move Forward, I doubt they would be happy with Pheu Thai for the simple reason that it will entail the return of both Shinewatras. The loss of face entailed in having him back would be unsustainable.

They have shown that they recognise that, by voting the way they did in the election; rather confirmed by the results of this opinion poll.

Personally I think that the "white man's burden" to which I refer is not so much expecting Thailand to mirror Western systems per se, ( there is nothing wrong for example with simple democratic legitimacy or independent apolitical courts for example, rather expecting Thailand to follow their personal ideals, often ones which would be regarded as beyond the constitutional boundaries if not downright authoritarian in their home countries. And, a minor point, but I find that the most common actors in this field are often "Teutonic" rather than "Anglophone"!

We've seen it before on these forums when discussing Thai politics - expatriates convinced , who are certain, that they know what is right for the Thai people and therefore the views/decisions of the electorate should be disregarded, and their solutions adopted; and therefore refuse to accept the settled views of the Thai electorate. A strange phenomena in some ways, one that would be openly ridiculed in their home countries yet here they feel that they invest it with some validity; perhaps a 21st century Siamese equivalent of "the white man's burden"?

Goodness me, what bit of getting more votes than the other candidates do you not understand?

So she is different! If you are going to feed the troll, well done for taking the piss. Will be a difficult one to fit onto his spreadsheet on "how many farangs marry bargirls" though!

When the new Senate is in place, as things stand at present it will have no powers to vote on the selection of a Prime Minister, that will be entirely in the hands of the lower house, no matter how hostile they are. That is why I expect them to play for time, in order to put in place a 3 part "fix". Part 1: to appoint the new Senate along the lines of the old one, cronies, political allies and senior military people. Part 2: a constitutional amendment which keeps the Senate's role in selecting a Prime Minister. Part 3: a further extension of the Senate's voting rights, which allows influence (control) over certain government measures, I suggest these may include budgets, the military and reform/ change to certain laws. Now this is supposition of course, but put yourself in the shoes of the ruling elite. There is a large, predominantly young opposition movement which is not going to go away. They need to be kept from power at all costs. It needs to be done, as it is at the moment, under a veneer of constitutional process/respectability. That is why a waiting game, buy time to sort this out before allowing fresh elections; and hope that they can keep the lid on any protest movement. It is also, bitter pill as it may prove to be, why perhaps they may allow Pheu Thai (suitably emasculated of course) some limited role in government, even including a return for Thaksin. Conspiracy theories some may shout, but it was all written without a tinfoil hat!

As I understand it, at present, the only effective (if not explicitly defined) veto which the Senate holds is in voting for the Prime Minister's post. Those voting powers, and this the veto, expire when the Senate's term expires in May 2024. There is therefore a waiting game to be played, the present government or something reliably close to it to remain in place until the new Senate is appointed, and it's powers/ voting powers adjusted. Then, hey ho, we'll have a new election.

You have spent the last two months variously suggesting that Pita and MFP are a risk to "stability", reckless political adventures with a programme to bring Thailand down, and that they have no right to claim to govern and should allow Pheu Thai to take the lead in forming a coalition government. Now he suggests that he may consider doing that, he is a fraud! Make your mind up!

Personally I tend to ignore posters who describe anyone who subscribed to a point of view other than theirs as "sheep". A reaction rather reinforced I must say when it is suggested that anyone advancing views he does not agree with is a " military industrial complex officer with no shame!" Some of the punditry may be suspect and their conclusions exaggerated (on both sides of the argument) however I have served under at least two who have been relatively frequent contributors in the British media, and respect their judgements! All wars are inherently attritional, and about territory. The aim is to control territory, if you do not seek to control territory you are not waging war, you are just being a bloody nuisance. You take control of territory by destroying an enemies will and ability to fight; an inevitable tool of that is attrition. Baah, baah, where is my tinfoil hat, the military industrial complex raises its head again!

The whole point of MFPs Electoral success, and that of Pheu Thai, although it is a much more conventional political party, is that the large numbers who voted for them want things to be different. They want to change the things which they perceive as wrong, the corruption, the legal shenanigans, the cronyism and the monopolies. They didn't vote for "Uncle big whatever" to run things, they voted for their movement to grab the country by the throat, to shake it, and to change it. They want to be making that change, not simply spreading another layer of sickly flavouring on a slightly larger slice of the cake.

There are lots of elaborate lamp posts en route to the airport...