wadman

35 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

China orders are around 3% of Boeing's backlog.  The operative word being "backlog".  Meaning someone else in line will just get theirs sooner.

 

And anyone who thinks Airbus will be the big winner here isn't following news of the C919.  And the C929.  And the...

 

 

Far too much is being made of the "backlog" in orders at Boeing and Airbus. Yes, they do have a big backlog. They could of course just add more production capacity (more production lines), ***IF*** they were confident that orders will continue pouring in at the same rate in the future. But they are not confident, so they don't spend the billions to add more production lines.

2 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

The vast number of Chinese tourists in Thailand indicate that the Chinese middle class has plenty of money to travel and that they are free to travel anywhere they want.

 

The fact that the Chinese are opening businesses here and all over Asia indicates their entrepreneurial spirit and belief that they should work for what they want rather than depending on govt handouts.

There are some cases where Chinese nationals have their passport taken for "safekeeping" by their employer/government. One fairly high level bank manager told me that her passport had been taken for safekeeping, same with other managers at a high level. Reason: so they don't embezzle a big bunch of money, and then skip the country.

4 hours ago, jas007 said:

That's my fear. Xi starts a war over Taiwan. 

 

I'm not at all worried about the market dynamics at play here. China will fold first. They're weaker than people have been programed to believe. What I am worried about is what China might do before giving up.  Analysts think that China will easily win any war with the USA that occurs in China's neighborhood. The US military is already stretched thin.  Much of the US stockpile of certain weapons and munitions went to Ukraine and can't be quickly replaced.  And to make matters more complicated, Trump has another conflict in the works in the Middle East, a conflict which could involve not only Iran, but Russia and China as well. Three wars going on at the same time?   The outcome would not be good, and I think both China and Russia realize that fact.  

 

Before long, we could see WWIII.  That's what should worry everyone. 

China isn't going to start a war with Taiwan because of US tariffs. Even if the economic situation with the US escalates, there is still the economic ties with the rest of the world. The EU would cut back trade drastically, if China were to invade. As would Japan, South Korea, etc.

43 minutes ago, FriscoKid said:

Not necessarily. The economy could move even more towards stagflation. High prices, high unemployment, and no growth. 

Good point. Usually in a recession, inflation goes down. But quite possibly not if Trump keeps all those tariffs in place.

20 minutes ago, FriscoKid said:

There is a theory floating around that this whole trade war designed by Trump has now shifted into simply being a red herring to try and get (what he sees as an uncooperative Fed chairman) to cut interest rates rapidly. That in itself could help Trump to be perceived to be a winner on the economy. 

The US economy was doing just fine before Trump started all this tariff nonsense. So why the big need to cut interest rates?

12 minutes ago, blaxon said:

 

Core inflation is at a 4 year low. TRUMP Effect, no thanks to the failed Biden debacle admin.

 

"U.S. inflation dropped in March 2025. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% annually in March, down from 2.8% in February, marking a six-month low. On a monthly basis, prices fell 0.1%, the first monthly decline in nearly five years, driven by lower gasoline prices (-6.3%), used vehicle prices (-0.7%), and airfares (-5.3%). Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.1% monthly and 2.8% annually, the lowest since March 2021."

 

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/u-s-consumer-prices-decline-in-march-core-inflation-hits-four-year-low/100055119/

When the recession/depression comes, inflation will be even lower. Things may even get cheaper.

2 hours ago, FriscoKid said:

 

Desperation? It looks more like China is adapting and moving on, while the real damage is happening inside the U.S. Trump’s policies, especially his sweeping tariffs, are doing more to hurt the American economy than anyone abroad. Since January, we’ve seen business investment drop as companies freeze hiring and delay expansion. Major manufacturers are laying off workers due to rising costs and disrupted supply chains. U.S. exports are taking a hit as other countries retaliate with tariffs of their own, pricing American goods out of key markets.

 

Wall Street is jittery, with markets swinging wildly every time a new trade threat is announced. The dollar has weakened, Treasuries are underperforming, and global confidence in the U.S. economy is slipping. Tourism is down, international students are pulling back, and consumer confidence has hit its lowest point in years. Even sectors that once thrived under open trade: tech, autos, agriculture, are now shedding jobs and facing mounting losses.

 

So no, China doesn’t need to take down the U.S. economy. Trump’s doing it just fine on his own.

What one also has to understand is that the true trade imbalance between China-US is not nearly as lopsided as it may seem. 

1. Americans buy a lot of Chinese products, made in China, but directed by American companies. Such as iphones, Nikes, Disney toys, etc. A pair of Nikes at 20 USD factory price gets sold for 200 USD at retail in the US. Americans make the big profits, China is used for cheap labor. 

An iphone might have a factory price of 700 USD, and it's recorded as a 700 USD export from China to the US. But many of the components inside the iphone aren't made in China. 

2. Americans don't really buy high end Chinese branded products from companies such as BYD, GWM, Geely (EVs), or Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo (phones and electronics), or Lining, Erke, Anta (shoes and clothing).  This is where the real money and value is in Chinese exports, but by and large Americans don't them for a variety of reasons (mostly because they have been blocked by the American government on "national security" grounds).

3. America runs a trade surplus on services with China, as they do with many countries.

4. There are quite a few American companies that operate inside China at the retail level. Think McDonald's, Burger King, KFC, Starbucks, Walmart, etc. Comparatively very few Chinese companies sell at the retail level in America. One report estimates the annual revenue from these American companies at 600 billion USD, while the Chinese counterparts take in 65 billion USD.

34 minutes ago, GammaGlobulin said:

 

Soon, Beijing might begin growing pineapples in hothouses, on the outskirts of the city.

Beijing will have plenty of water, once their new South-to-North water project is completed.

They will channel water from the South, and use it to grow pineapples in the North.

The Commies always love to build extravagant worthless Gov-Projects, such as this, which...

Destroy the environment.

 

 They are BIG on Taming Nature, you know.

 

 

All that for 10 rmb per pineapple?

1 hour ago, thesetat said:

Then if you are in China... Perhaps you should be somewhat careful what you look at while in public...  

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/phones-police-checks-03262024133232.html

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/security-police-check-devices-05082024130107.html

https://www.m9.news/social-media-viral/police-randomly-checks-mass-phones/

I don't do politics, they can monitor all they want.

53 minutes ago, NoDisplayName said:

 

Seriously, man?  "Beijing" doesn't produce pineapples?  That's like saying Washington, DC doesn't grow oranges.

 

Look to the southern provinces for pineapples, durian, jackfruit, bananas, coffee, chocolate.  Half of Hainan Island is pineapple plantation.......

 

 

There is a certain amount of tongue in cheek in my post. Beijing itself is too cold for pineapples.

China isn't really making agriculture and farming that big of a priority (other than what's needed for national security), manufacturing brings in more money.

10 minutes ago, NoDisplayName said:

 

Yes, I went to China and installed a VPN there.

Used one of the free ones (UB-something) that you could download onto a USB stick and use in the internet cafes.

 

Later used ExpressVPN on the annual payment plan as they were one of the best at circumventing the great firewall.  They have a crack team of coders that can break through the upgraded firewall before the end of the congress sessions.

Letsvpn is the one that has never gone down. May or may not be monitored by the government, but as long as you aren't politically active, who cares 

2 minutes ago, thesetat said:

So you went to China and installed a VPN from there? Or are you just spouting nonsense because I showed your ignorance?

Like I already told you in my last post, all you need is to know 1 person with VPN access in China. You can then use his VPN access to install a VPN on your own phone or computer.

Just now, thesetat said:

Once again you show ignorance in this topic. The average person does not even know about VPN and in case you did not know. You can only put a VPN app on your phone or pc from outside of China. I know because my friend who is a teacher tried many times. The VPNs that are allowed. Are permitted by the government which can block them at anytime. They are all blocked (even foreigners visiting or living there) when the government has their high official meetings in Beijing and nothing can get you online using them. 

Schools are given limited VPN that are seriously censored.  

The average educated Chinese is very aware of VPNs, they are not stupid. 

All it takes is for someone in China to know 1 person who has a VPN in China. He can then use that VPN to download and install his own VPN. A typical Chinese person has tons of friends, family, coworkers, acquaintances.

I am telling you, I am in China right now, using a VPN, and I can access YouTube just fine!  In the words of Elon: you are truly a more on. 

Just now, thesetat said:

Wow really?  And you do not think for a minute that those YouTube Vdos are not propaganda?  Did you know YouTube is banned and blocked by the Chinese firewall? Anything posted in there is going to be approved by the government. Or made by one of their lackeys. 

Or by using a VPN. I watch YouTube all the time in China.

1 hour ago, Gweiloman said:

Some expats live here in Thailand on 20,000 baht a month. Some spend that on just electricity alone. How much it costs you bear very little relevance. Were you living in a first tier city? Do you eat local or western food? Do you own a car or take the subway?

 

 I went as a tourist but stayed some time in a friend’s apartment in Chongsan. He lives in Melbourne but couldn’t tell me how his utilities bill (water, electricity, internet) costs him as the amount is too insignificant.

 

What I do know is that good high quality Chinese food such as roast quail, Peking Duck, fresh fish, oysters etc costs less than it does in Chiang Mai and Bangkok.

For a typical apartment with 3 occupants, say, monthly bill (1 USD = 7.32 rmb):

- water 80-100 rmb 

- electricity 150 - 500 rmb, depending on how much you run the Aircon in the summer, and the heater in the winter

- gas (as in natural gas, most homes, apartments use gas for cooking and hot water) 150-250 rmb

50 minutes ago, GammaGlobulin said:

 

Speaking of pineapples, they are no longer produced in America, Hawaii.

I think they have been outsourced to Beijing, or some place.

The French are the barbarians, these days, particularly the Parisians.

 

 

Beijing doesn't produce pineapples, too cold. I have seen pineapples being sold for 10 rmb (1.36 USD) for a whole fruit, too low value for Beijing to really care about.

3 minutes ago, GammaGlobulin said:

 

For now.

 

I don't foresee a mass migration of white people into China now or in the future. Do you? So America and the UK will be whiter than China for a very, very long time.

2 minutes ago, thesetat said:

You speculate a lot for someone who 1, do not know me or how I live. 2, do not know much about China and speculate based on your tourist visit. 3. Know nothing about the working people in China. 

 

 

1. You are saying you and your friends are living on 6000 - 7000 rmb a month, without any "extras". I'm telling you that locals can easily live cheaper than that. I have given you some actual, current pricing in cost of living items. 

2. I can guarantee that I know a whole more about China than you. I have been kicking around in China for the past 22 years. 

3. Again, I can guarantee that I know more about the working people in China than you. Having worked with them, dealt with them, done business with them.

Based on your claims, it seems you have taught a few years in China, and think you know everything about it. Do you even speak and read/write Chinese? It's true what they say: it's not the know nothings that are dangerous, it's the ones with a little bit of knowledge but think they know a lot.

1 minute ago, GammaGlobulin said:

 

But, UK is no longer white.

And, the USA will soon bee non-white.

So then...problem solved?

 

Still a whole lot whiter than China.

11 minutes ago, GammaGlobulin said:

 

The Biggest Question of all is how to solve the China Problem.

Or, is it already too late?

 

10 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

What is the China Problem? And who has this problem?

IMO, the China problem is that the Chinese (or any other non-white country) may not overtake America in terms of living standards (individually) or power (as a country).

1 minute ago, thesetat said:

You can not base your knowledge as a tourist. It may be a fraction of the cost as a foreigner travelling.  I lived there 5 years. Paid rent and electric.. Minimum spending without drinks and women or other pleasantries cost me over 6000 CNY a month.  That does not include food or clothing.  My friends who still live there are now paying even more. His average monthly bill is over 7000 RMB.. Without travel or fun. 

That's because you lived like a laowai (foreigner) with laowai tastes and standards. Locals live significantly cheaper. In Shenzhen city, a typical starting wage in a restaurant is around 5000 rmb (=682 USD), people live just fine on this. Find shared accommodations for 700-1400 rmb per month, phone bill 59 rmb, eat cheap meals, buy very cheap consumer goods online.

As an actual, real world example: I am paying 79 rmb (= 10.78 USD) per month for my mobile phone account + wired high speed internet. That's about 1 McDonald's meal in America.

59 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

I sure as hell hope you weren’t teaching them economics or accounting. Taking a figure of USD1,000/mth means absolutely nothing by itself. In econs (and in real life too actually), there is something known as “cost of living”. In simple layman terms, if things in country A costs half as much as in country B, then a worker in country A will enjoy the same standard of living as a worker in country B even earning half the salary.

 

 I hope this is clear for you…

"thesetat" has absolutely no clue what he is talking about. He thinks that the tariff war will make prices rise in China for those earning 1000 USD or less there. 

I am currently in China (leaving for Indonesia later today), and I can tell you for a fact that even before the tariff war, prices of manufactured goods had been going DOWN. Partially because factories get more efficient at making things, but the bigger reason is that everybody buys their stuff online now. And if you think shopping on Temu, Alibaba was cheap (before Trump cancelled the de minimis), wait until you see how low prices are in China. 

Cost of labor has been about steady. So going out for a meal, say, isn't getting cheaper, as that directly involves labor in the restaurant. Mind you, even the restaurants are getting more efficient (cutting costs). You no longer have a waiter taking your order. Instead you scan a QR code with your phone, up pops the menu, and you order from there, and pay through the app too. So a lot of labor saved there. 

1. In terms of direct buying: the 1000 USD earner in China won't be directly buying a lot of goods imported from the US, as he simply can't afford it.

2. In terms of indirectly buying: China used to buy soybeans from the US. The far majority of this was in the form of animal feed, to feed their pigs as the Chinese do love their pork. But there are plenty of alternatives to US soybeans, China can buy it from Brazil, Russia, etc. China can also buy rapeseed meal from India instead, to feed their pigs.

So the 1000 USD worker does buy pork, but it won't be going up in price due to the tariff war.  Quite on the contrary, the tariff war does cause economic pain for China, so people have less money overall. Less money = less demand = prices go down. That may sound good for the consumer, but remember that they have less money, so overall it is still economic pain.

2 hours ago, still kicking said:

Go back to school

It's obvious you have never been.

3 hours ago, thesetat said:

Do you realize that most Chinese people earn less than 1000 USD per month to live on? That is the average salary for a full time job. Some make even less. Any price increases will surely hurt them quite a lot. Especially to the average person struggling to pay their bills and save a little money. 

When I worked there, I was making more than 3 times the salary than the other local teachers. 

 

For those making 1000 USD or less, they won't be buying a lot of imported American products, if at all.  This trade war will have a deflationary effect on prices in China (in China, not America), meaning things will get cheaper on average.

The problem is that Chinese exports to the US will go down, which means reduced money/business.  The deflationary effect will touch on salaries as well, at the very least that 1000 USD/month worker won't be getting a raise.