wadman
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Posts posted by wadman
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1 hour ago, JBChiangRai said:
Battery swapping makes a lot of sense for taxis.
We keep the phone numbers of grab drivers running EV’s. The airport run is much more relaxing in an EV.
Battery swapping also makes a lot of sense for electric scooters. In China, the delivery companies run their own swapping stations. It's hole-in-the-wall type of setups. One of their drivers pull in, battery gets swapped in about 1 minute.
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1 hour ago, vinny41 said:he was refering to global share of market
Akio Toyoda, Toyota's chairman, has publicly stated that he believes battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will never exceed 30% of the global automotive market share. He argues that factors like limited access to electricity in some regions, the cost of EVs, and the need for charging infrastructure make it unlikely that they will dominate the market
As for why, Toyoda points to around a billion people in the world who live without access to electricity, for whom he says it doesn’t make sense to limit their choices and ability to travel with expensive BEVs.
https://www.teslarati.com/toyota-evs-30-percent-market-share/
If you don't have access to electricity, you live in a very poor area, and are unlikely to be able to afford any kind of car. For the (very) small percentage that can, they can always install solar panels on their roof to power their EV.
Not every EV is expensive. China sells the seagull for under 8k USD (in China). Seagull + solar panels (without tariffs) probably makes car ownership more financially accessible than an ICE car in very poor areas.
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Isn't this just the government version of "business is down, raise the prices". Fewer tourists? Make them pay more each.
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The description of the book couldn't possibly be more general. Not a single thing mentioned by name. Book is likely to be the same. Pass.
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35 minutes ago, impulse said:
China orders are around 3% of Boeing's backlog. The operative word being "backlog". Meaning someone else in line will just get theirs sooner.
And anyone who thinks Airbus will be the big winner here isn't following news of the C919. And the C929. And the...
Far too much is being made of the "backlog" in orders at Boeing and Airbus. Yes, they do have a big backlog. They could of course just add more production capacity (more production lines), ***IF*** they were confident that orders will continue pouring in at the same rate in the future. But they are not confident, so they don't spend the billions to add more production lines.
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5 hours ago, Gweiloman said:Another point is that most Chinese citizens can see exactly what the US is trying to do so they are willing to endure as much hardship as necessary to ensure that China will not lose this trade war. However, I don’t think the Chinese people will suffer much hardship. As mentioned many times before, only 15% of China’s exports go to the US. Complete loss of this market (which won’t happen anyway) will inevitably cause some job losses but nobody will be starving or homeless. All that is required is some belt tightening and dipping into some savings if really necessary.
3 hours ago, Gweiloman said:As for market dynamics, you’ve gotten it all wrong. China is stronger than people (especially Americans) have been programmed to believe. The US will fold first, if either side folds. This is very obvious from the desperate messaging coming out of the US, pleading for Xi to call, saying that the ball is in China’s court, that China needs the US more etc etc. China has confidently just kept quiet and mature, saying only that talks can begin when America learns some respect (a tall order, I must admit).
IMO it isn't so much a case of who will win this tariff trade war, and which side will fold first.
1. It's overwhelmingly obvious by now that America (and the euros to some degree) want to contain China. Trump in his first term put tariffs on China, Biden did too, and now Trump has put even more tariffs. It's just like a extortion/blackmailing/protection money kinda of situation: once you pay, there will almost be more demands in the future.
2. 15% (400+ billion) of China exports to the US is good chunk of money. But none of that export is in truly high profit (profit for China) products, as I have detailed here
3. China is/was coerced into buying soybean, LNG from the US. LNG is especially a costly one, as they have access to cheap Russian gas and oil.
4. So overall, the economic benefit of this 15% of exports isn't nearly as big as you would think at face value. China had already reduced US exports as a PERCENTAGE of their total exports (from something like 30% down to 15%). No need to think they can't survive cutting the remaining 15%.
5. That 15% US exports is 3% of China GDP. So even if all of that were to disappear, the China GDP would go down by 3%. Except it wouldn't, because the China government is sitting on tons of reserve cash, and they can easily afford to use that to cushion to blow.
6. Both the Republicans and Democrats in the US see China's economic strength as a long term problem, and have so for years. So I don't think the US will "fold" either. They just don't like the way Trump went about it. You would think, that with all the anti-China propaganda released by the west, it would be easy to marshall a coalition against China in terms of trade. But Trump did the exact opposite: he pissed off everybody.
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2 hours ago, Gweiloman said:
The vast number of Chinese tourists in Thailand indicate that the Chinese middle class has plenty of money to travel and that they are free to travel anywhere they want.
The fact that the Chinese are opening businesses here and all over Asia indicates their entrepreneurial spirit and belief that they should work for what they want rather than depending on govt handouts.
There are some cases where Chinese nationals have their passport taken for "safekeeping" by their employer/government. One fairly high level bank manager told me that her passport had been taken for safekeeping, same with other managers at a high level. Reason: so they don't embezzle a big bunch of money, and then skip the country.
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4 hours ago, jas007 said:
That's my fear. Xi starts a war over Taiwan.
I'm not at all worried about the market dynamics at play here. China will fold first. They're weaker than people have been programed to believe. What I am worried about is what China might do before giving up. Analysts think that China will easily win any war with the USA that occurs in China's neighborhood. The US military is already stretched thin. Much of the US stockpile of certain weapons and munitions went to Ukraine and can't be quickly replaced. And to make matters more complicated, Trump has another conflict in the works in the Middle East, a conflict which could involve not only Iran, but Russia and China as well. Three wars going on at the same time? The outcome would not be good, and I think both China and Russia realize that fact.
Before long, we could see WWIII. That's what should worry everyone.
China isn't going to start a war with Taiwan because of US tariffs. Even if the economic situation with the US escalates, there is still the economic ties with the rest of the world. The EU would cut back trade drastically, if China were to invade. As would Japan, South Korea, etc.
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20 minutes ago, FriscoKid said:
There is a theory floating around that this whole trade war designed by Trump has now shifted into simply being a red herring to try and get (what he sees as an uncooperative Fed chairman) to cut interest rates rapidly. That in itself could help Trump to be perceived to be a winner on the economy.The US economy was doing just fine before Trump started all this tariff nonsense. So why the big need to cut interest rates?
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12 minutes ago, blaxon said:Core inflation is at a 4 year low. TRUMP Effect, no thanks to the failed Biden debacle admin."U.S. inflation dropped in March 2025. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% annually in March, down from 2.8% in February, marking a six-month low. On a monthly basis, prices fell 0.1%, the first monthly decline in nearly five years, driven by lower gasoline prices (-6.3%), used vehicle prices (-0.7%), and airfares (-5.3%). Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.1% monthly and 2.8% annually, the lowest since March 2021."
When the recession/depression comes, inflation will be even lower. Things may even get cheaper.
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2 hours ago, FriscoKid said:
Desperation? It looks more like China is adapting and moving on, while the real damage is happening inside the U.S. Trump’s policies, especially his sweeping tariffs, are doing more to hurt the American economy than anyone abroad. Since January, we’ve seen business investment drop as companies freeze hiring and delay expansion. Major manufacturers are laying off workers due to rising costs and disrupted supply chains. U.S. exports are taking a hit as other countries retaliate with tariffs of their own, pricing American goods out of key markets.
Wall Street is jittery, with markets swinging wildly every time a new trade threat is announced. The dollar has weakened, Treasuries are underperforming, and global confidence in the U.S. economy is slipping. Tourism is down, international students are pulling back, and consumer confidence has hit its lowest point in years. Even sectors that once thrived under open trade: tech, autos, agriculture, are now shedding jobs and facing mounting losses.
So no, China doesn’t need to take down the U.S. economy. Trump’s doing it just fine on his own.
What one also has to understand is that the true trade imbalance between China-US is not nearly as lopsided as it may seem.
1. Americans buy a lot of Chinese products, made in China, but directed by American companies. Such as iphones, Nikes, Disney toys, etc. A pair of Nikes at 20 USD factory price gets sold for 200 USD at retail in the US. Americans make the big profits, China is used for cheap labor.
An iphone might have a factory price of 700 USD, and it's recorded as a 700 USD export from China to the US. But many of the components inside the iphone aren't made in China.
2. Americans don't really buy high end Chinese branded products from companies such as BYD, GWM, Geely (EVs), or Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo (phones and electronics), or Lining, Erke, Anta (shoes and clothing). This is where the real money and value is in Chinese exports, but by and large Americans don't them for a variety of reasons (mostly because they have been blocked by the American government on "national security" grounds).
3. America runs a trade surplus on services with China, as they do with many countries.
4. There are quite a few American companies that operate inside China at the retail level. Think McDonald's, Burger King, KFC, Starbucks, Walmart, etc. Comparatively very few Chinese companies sell at the retail level in America. One report estimates the annual revenue from these American companies at 600 billion USD, while the Chinese counterparts take in 65 billion USD.
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34 minutes ago, GammaGlobulin said:
Soon, Beijing might begin growing pineapples in hothouses, on the outskirts of the city.
Beijing will have plenty of water, once their new South-to-North water project is completed.
They will channel water from the South, and use it to grow pineapples in the North.
The Commies always love to build extravagant worthless Gov-Projects, such as this, which...
Destroy the environment.
They are BIG on Taming Nature, you know.
All that for 10 rmb per pineapple?
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1 hour ago, thesetat said:
Then if you are in China... Perhaps you should be somewhat careful what you look at while in public...
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/phones-police-checks-03262024133232.html
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/security-police-check-devices-05082024130107.html
https://www.m9.news/social-media-viral/police-randomly-checks-mass-phones/
I don't do politics, they can monitor all they want.
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53 minutes ago, NoDisplayName said:
Seriously, man? "Beijing" doesn't produce pineapples? That's like saying Washington, DC doesn't grow oranges.
Look to the southern provinces for pineapples, durian, jackfruit, bananas, coffee, chocolate. Half of Hainan Island is pineapple plantation.......
There is a certain amount of tongue in cheek in my post. Beijing itself is too cold for pineapples.
China isn't really making agriculture and farming that big of a priority (other than what's needed for national security), manufacturing brings in more money.
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10 minutes ago, NoDisplayName said:
Yes, I went to China and installed a VPN there.
Used one of the free ones (UB-something) that you could download onto a USB stick and use in the internet cafes.
Later used ExpressVPN on the annual payment plan as they were one of the best at circumventing the great firewall. They have a crack team of coders that can break through the upgraded firewall before the end of the congress sessions.
Letsvpn is the one that has never gone down. May or may not be monitored by the government, but as long as you aren't politically active, who cares
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2 minutes ago, thesetat said:
So you went to China and installed a VPN from there? Or are you just spouting nonsense because I showed your ignorance?
Like I already told you in my last post, all you need is to know 1 person with VPN access in China. You can then use his VPN access to install a VPN on your own phone or computer.
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Just now, thesetat said:
Once again you show ignorance in this topic. The average person does not even know about VPN and in case you did not know. You can only put a VPN app on your phone or pc from outside of China. I know because my friend who is a teacher tried many times. The VPNs that are allowed. Are permitted by the government which can block them at anytime. They are all blocked (even foreigners visiting or living there) when the government has their high official meetings in Beijing and nothing can get you online using them.
Schools are given limited VPN that are seriously censored.
The average educated Chinese is very aware of VPNs, they are not stupid.
All it takes is for someone in China to know 1 person who has a VPN in China. He can then use that VPN to download and install his own VPN. A typical Chinese person has tons of friends, family, coworkers, acquaintances.
I am telling you, I am in China right now, using a VPN, and I can access YouTube just fine! In the words of Elon: you are truly a more on.
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Just now, thesetat said:
Wow really? And you do not think for a minute that those YouTube Vdos are not propaganda? Did you know YouTube is banned and blocked by the Chinese firewall? Anything posted in there is going to be approved by the government. Or made by one of their lackeys.
Or by using a VPN. I watch YouTube all the time in China.
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1 hour ago, Gweiloman said:
Some expats live here in Thailand on 20,000 baht a month. Some spend that on just electricity alone. How much it costs you bear very little relevance. Were you living in a first tier city? Do you eat local or western food? Do you own a car or take the subway?
I went as a tourist but stayed some time in a friend’s apartment in Chongsan. He lives in Melbourne but couldn’t tell me how his utilities bill (water, electricity, internet) costs him as the amount is too insignificant.
What I do know is that good high quality Chinese food such as roast quail, Peking Duck, fresh fish, oysters etc costs less than it does in Chiang Mai and Bangkok.
For a typical apartment with 3 occupants, say, monthly bill (1 USD = 7.32 rmb):
- water 80-100 rmb
- electricity 150 - 500 rmb, depending on how much you run the Aircon in the summer, and the heater in the winter
- gas (as in natural gas, most homes, apartments use gas for cooking and hot water) 150-250 rmb
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50 minutes ago, GammaGlobulin said:
Speaking of pineapples, they are no longer produced in America, Hawaii.
I think they have been outsourced to Beijing, or some place.
The French are the barbarians, these days, particularly the Parisians.
Beijing doesn't produce pineapples, too cold. I have seen pineapples being sold for 10 rmb (1.36 USD) for a whole fruit, too low value for Beijing to really care about.
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2 minutes ago, thesetat said:
You speculate a lot for someone who 1, do not know me or how I live. 2, do not know much about China and speculate based on your tourist visit. 3. Know nothing about the working people in China.
1. You are saying you and your friends are living on 6000 - 7000 rmb a month, without any "extras". I'm telling you that locals can easily live cheaper than that. I have given you some actual, current pricing in cost of living items.
2. I can guarantee that I know a whole more about China than you. I have been kicking around in China for the past 22 years.
3. Again, I can guarantee that I know more about the working people in China than you. Having worked with them, dealt with them, done business with them.
Based on your claims, it seems you have taught a few years in China, and think you know everything about it. Do you even speak and read/write Chinese? It's true what they say: it's not the know nothings that are dangerous, it's the ones with a little bit of knowledge but think they know a lot.
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Electric Vehicles in Thailand
in Thailand Motor Discussion
These top 10 countries with the lowest percentage of population with access to electricity, they are all in Africa. Very poor countries, but lots of sunshine there. Solar installation+ EV surely makes a lot sense there?