One of the reasons that polls are so worthless is that there are factors other than public opinion that impact the vote in November.
For example, in Nevada, the combination of the Harry Reid organization and the SEIU labor unions has a significant impact on Dem voter turnout. Even if the polls are tight, Dem voter turnout is usually higher than expected.
In Virginia, the vast number of Federal employees who vote is significant.
The number of abortion initiatives on the ballot in swing states will be large, and this will drive turnout.
Joe Biden lived in Scranton, Pennsylvania and gets a big turnout there.
Rather than public opinion, voter turnout is important, and it's hard to know the turnout factors this early in the race.