The Cipher

Uh oh. October's some time away. Sounds like some folks will have to face their fears one way or another ????‍♂️

Can't speak to your specific tax liability, but do keep in mind that exchanges are being leaned on to implement KYC to help combat illicit financing and money laundering in addition to the tax collection angle that you mentioned. I'm not aware of a way around it unfortunately.

54 minutes ago, Heng said:

I doubt anyone here believes they will be changing anyone else's mind.   It's just all in fun poking back and forth.   It's like having a burgers and beer BBQ next to a vegan protest about something or other...

Right? Lol. Nobody here is trying to hustle folks into a scam. At this point it is institutional adoption that will determine the future of many of the more famous assets in the space, not the savings of a handful of expats.

Plus, as probable retirees (based on the Thai Visa demo), high vol potentially long-horizon assets probably aren't appropriate for most of the portfolios here.

The funniest thing to me is that I might actually indirectly manage the pension funds of some of these folks. So uhh, you better hope I'm not a garbage investor who has no idea what he's doing...???? (before anyone freaks out, I have no authority to deploy pension funds to cryptoassets).

2 minutes ago, Pravda said:

Still not getting any value for my coffee. 

Not even entertainment value? ????

I've found this thread pretty entertaining lol. Coffee's just average tho.

Demographic trends and oversupply make Thailand relatively less attractive than a lot of other countries for real estate purchases. Especially when coupled with highly affordable rents.

There is a subtle hilarity to (figuratively) the career welder from Blackpool, the warehouse manager from Darwin, and the goat herder from Waikato coming onto Thai Visa, confidently airing their takes on the direction of financial innovation, and then congratulating each other for it lmao.

Crypto is likely still in its infancy. Yes, there are a ton of scams out there and yes it does have a cult-like following in some corners of the internet. But its recognition as a burgeoning institutional asset class is growing, as is the development of use-cases for the assets. Crypto-ETFs have been tradable on stock exchanges for some time now, banks like Goldman Sachs are working on bond issuances on the Ethereum blockchain, and Central Banks like those in China and the UK are working on creating their own digital currencies.

If you don't feel comfortable buying crypto, don't buy it. In fact, if you're a retiree and you do feel comfortable, at least hesitate before establishing a (risk-controlled) position and make sure you know what you're buying and why.

But if you've always been a random bloke with absolutely no track record of outperformance, and you think you're trolling folks with crypto positions, maybe at least consider that there might be more out there to learn. Because honestly, you're just coming on here and playing yourselves.

Yikes. I guess we could try living with courage! But...nah, that's gotta be crazy

1 minute ago, PGSan said:

Why would you hope for such lack of action?

Selfishly: Because I have would like the freedom to assume the risk/reward tradeoff to live as normal a life as possible, and also because I have a major exam to write in late May that I don't want cancelled (postponed twice in 2020 already because of Covid).

Unselfishly: Because I believe that stricter regulations than these would be an overreaction at this time. The spike in cases in Thailand's prisons is at minimal risk of causing a massive surge outside the system, and new case counts excluding prison cases have been broadly stable. The damage to the livelihoods and well beings of ordinary folks would not necessarily be best served by a stricter lockdown based on the information that we have at this time.

This is awful. I realize that the majority of new cases are in prisons, but the headline numbers are going to scare a lot of ordinary people. I very much hope that the government will not declare that stricter measures than the current ones are required.

2 hours ago, MasterBaker said:

there is no way tourist numbers will ever be the same as before. not just in thailand

Lol do people actually believe this?

2 hours ago, LivinLOS said:

You keep talking about value proposition's and money saving.. Everyone else is talking HNW or VHNW people.. 

So either everyone you know is in the nine-digit-plus range, or you just said more about yourself than you think you did lol.

2 hours ago, LivinLOS said:

So far we have 'bars' and 'Stumbling out of a dingy Thai after-hours at 4am' which I cant help but point out is.. er.. also bars... Dont get me wrong, I spent a decade 5 or 6 nights a week coming home at dawn, but thats one pretty low rent budget thing... You think VHNW people with plus 5 mil in the bank have a hard time finding a drink ?? 

But about this, I used the after hours bar as a specific example there because it was what my brain came up with in the moment to contrast the opera. Because that specific experience is relatively better here than in many other countries.

But. I have said above that I think there's plenty to do here even if one were teetotaler (and outlined examples). This is especially true in a post-Covid world where travel resumes normally. I do think that Thailand skews better for relatively younger folks at all HNW+ levels of wealth, but it's heavily subjective on the person because - as I've also said before - 'the wealthy' are not homogeneous.

My entire case is that that Thailand is a viable destination for a HNW person to set up shop in as part of a dual or multi-city living arrangement. I do not believe it is the ideal place for many, but I still believe that it is the right option for some.

If you look at a map of Asia, how many other destinations are obviously more appealing for someone looking to establish a base on the continent (or, for Asian wealth, a second home). Singapore is the only one I see. Formerly Hong Kong, but I think it's now dropped a tier.

2 hours ago, LivinLOS said:

Exactly another tax evader, claiming how cheap it is.. while abusing the labour law, likely abusing the immigration law and abusing the tax code.. 

Take away the crimes and even that marginal appeal to a basic worker is shrinking by the second. 

Also, dude, I'm not evading taxes anywhere. I pay a ridiculous amount of tax in the country where I'm employed, and in the locations where my assets generate taxable gains/income (I also use materially none of the social safety net, but I digress). Those locations just don't happen to be Thailand at the moment. My tax situation is, apparently, completely legal as outlined in a separate forum thread.

38 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

This isn't about poor migrant workers, unless of course you think that Thais travelling to your country are migrant but people from your country coming here are expats. One of my daughters studies in the UK, at a top university, and another wants to work in Australia. 

It's rather sad to see Colonial attitudes and discrimination against Thais from Isarn. 

Dude, I'm Asian-Canadian (parents were immigrants) and a private equity analyst. My girlfriend was born in Thailand (Roi Et in Isan, coincidentally), is successfully employed overseas and works in enterprise software sales - a well paying career that lets her back-and-forth to and from Thailand. I am well aware that Thais (and many nationalities) can successfully immigrate overseas, and also well aware that some do and some don't prefer their lives there.

My previous comment in reference was about "poor folks with little prospects" specifically and not the general person. I didn't even mention Isan. If you are taking offense with me calling them migrant workers then I apologize. We can call them immigrants. My point about their relative situation is exactly the same.

12 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

I get you.  The thing is, most of us commenting on TV are not dirt poor with little prospects.  So of course, none of us would want to do what these migrants are willing to do.  Not only Mexicans risking their lives to get to America, but Burmese and Cambodians coming to Thailand to take any menial jobs.  I see migrants working in our moo baan, all day in the hot sun, practically every day.  I wouldn't want to do it.  But they're quite content...because it's better than where they came from. 

This occurred to me while I was writing my previous post and did give me pause. Like, clearly people are doing this (even with Thailand as the destination country!) so there must be some appeal to doing so.

But from my (very limited) experience with poorer migrant workers, it seems that many of them are happy to tolerate tough lives for themselves so that they're able to send some money back to their place of origin to help their families still living there. And that's noble for sure.

But are most of them willing to endure their difficulties because they know that their hardship is helping their family back home, rather than enduring in an attempt to actually build a life in <abroad country>? I don't have the answers to these questions. Just think the topic is interesting and am curious.

7 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

I was speaking specifically about poor folks with little prospects

Is life abroad really better for these people though? Genuinely curious.

Like, how would life improve for the average low-skilled, impoverished person in Thailand if you gave them a work permit and relocated them abroad? As I see it they'd suddenly be in a brand new place with a brand new culture in which they don't speak the language and suddenly have to fend for themselves against a deeper pool of talent than they'd ever encountered before.

So they'd probably slot in at the very bottom of the earnings pyramid (just like they were at in Thailand) and their nominally higher earnings would be offset by the higher cost of living, so would their relative position even improve?

I picture the situation of migrant workers in places like Singapore or Hong Kong where those workers are crammed like 10 to a room and have to go out and work for barely subsistence wages and I just don't know...

????????????

3 hours ago, webfact said:

How to get through the pandemic questions resulted in 92% putting their faith in masks, 88% lessening travel, 87% hand washing, 77% staying at home and 64% exercising. 

Any word on whether 'my immune system will handle it' was an option?

The answer to whether a young Thai person should move abroad isn't uniform. Depends on their personality, their individual skill sets, and how their intended location meshes with those two things.

Cultures and environments in other countries (esp Western ones) can be radically different than here. It's not hard to imagine a Thai person (or any immigrant) not adapting well and preferring to return to their home country. Not sure how anyone can believe that materially all immigrants settle well and inherently prefer their new country to their old one to the point where they'd never consider returning.

Imo those that would benefit most from moving (assuming no support from a spouse or whatever) are those with in-demand skills who would be able to benefit from the structurally higher pay (above cost of living) for those skills in certain other countries. Think folks like young software engineers or data scientists. Maybe nurses also.

But for someone doing a basic job and living month-to-month with no ability to save/build wealth, is life really better in <other country> than here? It's debatable at best.

It is pretty surreal. I got in at $800 and have been wanting to buy more on a big dip for some time, but the supposedly inevitable big pullback never seems to arrive. Will probably just end up doing a market buy since the runway still seems pretty long from here.

33 minutes ago, Airalee said:

You sound quite price conscious.  I don’t think that’s what the TAT has in mind when they think of wealthy retirees.  But if an infinity pool is what excites you....fabulous.

Hm, I don't consider myself rich, and would describe myself as value conscious. A bit about my situation: I'm 30 and currently have positive net cash flow of about $10k per month. I try and stash half of that while enjoying my life with the other half. That $5k a month spend goes a loooot further in Bangkok than in other big cities that I like.

I like to think (maybe fancifully) that the Gov of Thailand appreciates that injection into their economy? With the new trend to remote work - if it sticks - I'm inclined to believe, based on my experience and my friends' experiences, that there are a lot more me's out there who are frustrated at the pace of meaningful wealth accumulation in high-cost Tier 1 cities and would appreciate a smooth path to a setting up shop somewhere like here.

In the time I've spent here over the years I've met a few wealthy people who enjoy living here or spending material parts of their years here - most are Southeast Asian business people, which I realize is a different demo than most on Thai Visa, but there have been handful of HNW Western retirees, as well as other young guys trying to ramp from $1-5M or $5-10M.

Is this the optimal target demo for the government to be focusing on? Maybe not. But I do believe there is at least some reason for the Thai Gov's hope of attracting more of this type of person.

25 minutes ago, DerbyDan said:

Sitting in bars, clubs, nana, drinking?

Not quite? There's plenty of value to be had without drinking. Wealthy under 40s trying to ramp up their net-worths are probably spending a good chunk of their day working. So what's important for them re: productivity? Convenience, working-location comfort, and value.

Bangkok currently offers incredible value. I'm able to rent a wonderful flat, comfortable size, good fit and finish, great gym, infinity edge pool...the works, for literally a small fraction of what the eye-watering cost would be for a similar unit in Vancouver, Singapore, or Hong Kong - the other cities in which I regularly spend meaningful time. Can work comfortably from my unit, or from one of the many decently-furnished cafes in the city.

Beyond that I have a fairly wide selection of food that I can order to save on cooking time - for again - significantly cheaper than what it would cost in the aforementioned cities. House cleaning? Ditto.

Malls and here amenities here are great, if a little homogeneous in their offerings. I never hit the red lights unless friends are in town and want to go, but conventional night life is fantastic, and Bangkok has plenty of niche little areas to explore in the daytime if you're inclined to do that - way more than a smaller city like Vancouver has. And. Once again everything is cheaper at the same time. 

Quality of life = high. Time efficiency maximized and spend minimized.

If you get bored of Bangkok, the Thai islands are a short hop away. Want to get away from Thailand? Singapore and Hong Kong are each a couple of hours away and can be a weekend trip. Major cities in Japan, Korea, China, and Taiwan are all reachable within 6 hours by plane.

If that doesn't do it for you then that's fine, but I don't know man, maybe Asia isn't where you'd be happy.

28 minutes ago, Airalee said:

World class Opera, Symphony, Ballet, museums, architecture, have lunch at a street side cafe without sweating to death and breathing in fumes from exhaust belching busses and tuk-tuks, shop without paying grossly high luxury taxes, enjoy clean beaches, stroll along nicely landscaped avenues without worrying about twisting an ankle.

Ok sure. But if that's what you're looking for in life why choose Thailand? That's not what it's value prop is. People who want that would set up somewhere like Vienna or New York, right?

I personally don't feel like seeing an opera or symphony more than once or twice a year, so I'm fine flying to do that and tagging it on as part or holiday. Folks that want to go often and are complaining that Thailand doesn't offer that might be trying to fit their square peg into a round hole here. Or at least, that's how I see it.