The Cipher

19 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

However on behalf of the world community I'm sad you have been discomforted. 

Bit like my two 30 year old sons in Melbourne. Hard lockdown 112 days last year and currently back in lockdown. 

The difference is they didn't moan about it.

Thanks for your condolences. Much appreciated.

But what would really help each of myself, your sons, and yourself the most, is if you could get vaccinated as soon as practicable with whichever of the jabs is available. And if you could encourage those in your network to do the same.

It's one thing to endure restrictions when there are no solutions available, but it's quite another to endure them when the group that they are most meant to help decides that they want to have their cake and eat it too.

 The risk curve for Covid isn't flat across all demographics and varies widely by age and other underlying factors. This is easily demonstrable in data.

I'm 30 with no history of ill health or underlying conditions. I'm not at no risk, but I am at very low risk. The primary reason I even think about Covid on a day to day basis is because of the ever changing restrictions associated with the disease.

 I currently can't do a ton of stuff that I'd like to, and although you might not notice a restraint on your life, I certainly do.

People like me have made what we consider to be considerable sacrifices in order to slow the spread of Covid. It is frustrating to watch the at-risk people clamor for harsher or longer restrictions just because they want to hold out for a jab of their choice when approved options are already available to them.

45 minutes ago, Logosone said:

But yah, you really really need to know what you're doing with Forex and there's a lot of bs out there.

Hm, sounds familiar. I wonder what other type of traded instruments this could apply to ????

24 minutes ago, BangkokReady said:

Wouldn't there be some logic to that since some brands make it more likely for community spreads to occur?  Surely having a "preference" of jab for others is not completely crazy?

Yes. I could see a case where there was logic in this, if it could be proven likely that the benefits of waiting for a 'better' jab offset spread during the wait-time lag.

I have a vaccine preference as well and am in no rush to get vaccinated. I think the difference between my position and some others', is that I absolutely do not expect anyone else to have to make changes to their lives (ie by suffering extended restrictions) to accommodate my preference so that I can 'feel safe' until such a time as the vaccine of my choice becomes available.

3 minutes ago, clokwise said:

but if it's some random dude smuggling vials through customs in his luggage (or elsewhere) I'd be wary

The risk from getting injected with an unknown jab via something like this is waaaaaaaay higher than the minor risk of a negative Covid outcome or the miniscule risk of a negative outcome from not-your-favorite-vaccine-brand.

I really hope the people who are determined to wait for the vaccines of their choice also aren't the same people clamoring to keep tight restrictions until they are vaccinated.

We're more than 10 pages in at this point lol. I think enough has been posted for interested observers to know who's got the goods and who's fronting.

43 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

or that you "believe" and "respect" crypto traders who obviously don't understand financial risks

- GrandPapillon, CFA FRM CQF

50 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

I mean seriously, man, do you actually understand what you read above?

Nah. Seems complicated. Better left to the pros and seasoned investors, like apparently yourself.

Good thing I'm not a professional investor, right?

9 hours ago, GrandPapillon said:

then I would seriously consider looking for help for your reading comprehension and analytical skills 

<deleted>. You are on to me. Don't tell my boss tho or I might not get to work remotely anymore (which I am really enjoying).

But. Never let it be said that I don't at least try. I'm attaching three example one-pagers that applicants had to submit for a senior analyst job focusing on decentralized finance. The applicants had to answer the questions: How would you explain DeFi to a beginner; How would you value a DeFi protocol; and how would you assess safety. Submission limit was one page.

Disclaimer: I did not submit any of these and am not affiliated with the account that posted them on a different community. I would normally cite my specific source but don't particularly want to dilute that community via cross-pollination with this one. If you are an owner/creator of these docs and you take exception to me doing it this way, DM me and I will attribute properly. (Although if you have read this far through the thread, I get the feeling you will agree).

9 hours ago, GrandPapillon said:

so basically, you follow blindly some people advice on some "perceived" respect. Yep, that's the way to do it. Madoff will be proud, young padawan

They are, bluntly, better crypto investors than me and understand it far better than I do. If they're chasing Madoff, they're doing it wrong because they forgot to charge me fees lol.

Gotta know when someone is better at something than you are so that you can benefit from their knowledge. I have no problem taking advice from bright people who have investment specializations in different areas than me.

There's levels to this game, man. ????

20 minutes ago, josthomz said:

I highly doubt this is any different from an investment in let's say purchasing shares from X company.

It's not different. It's exactly the same. Except that crypto has a higher degree of uncertainty.

21 minutes ago, josthomz said:

Now let's say, you bet $10,000 that in the next F1 race Lewis Hamilton will win. You could also do an analysis and say that Mercedes has the most suitable car for Baku, you could say that Lewis has won the majority of the races this year....... Does this count as investment or as gambling? It doesn't depend on 'random luck', it depends on Lewis, and Mercedes, and the rest of the pilots, right? 

Would consider this an investment. You did your due diligence and staked some capital on an uncertain future outcome presumably because you liked the opportunity based on the market mispricing the probability of a Mercedes win. There are actually investment funds that are wholly, or partially, mandated to sports bet. It's pretty interesting.

Quote

Crypto trading is not investing, it's gambling

9 minutes ago, josthomz said:

I thought that was a no-brainer and in this topic we were past that..... 

But we're apparently not past debating whether crypto has fundamentals, no matter how much info I post...

7 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/ThaiVisaNews/

 

 

Thanks. Much appreciated.

I'm usually more of an optimist than most on here about life in Thailand, but gotta admit, this is absurd.

29 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

But since that announcement there has been a further announcement which contradicts the initial announcement and those places of business are not allowed to re-open. 

Do you have a source for this?

It's not that I doubt you, I just can't find the news myself and would like to read it/share it with others.

Edit: Nevermind. Gf found the news. Sorry for the ping.

15 minutes ago, Antonymous said:

large number of petrified and over anxious Americans in Thailand too

They must be those people that I see out there wearing two masks lmao.

Good luck to those people. I get the feeling they are gonna need it.

7 hours ago, GrandPapillon said:

and this crypto thing is actually very interesting, it says a lot about our society and the future generations (the clueless kids)

One of the things that actually makes me the most bullish about crypto actually carving out a sustainable place in the world is the amount and quality of human capital behind the good projects.

If you know where to look for quality info on the asset class, a quick read through of comments makes it obvious that the IQs and achievement-histories of many crypto participants are meaningfully above average.

But beyond that, crypto is becoming less a space dominated by retail capital from younger generations and increasingly one that is trending towards general institutional adoption (a big deal).

I mean this in the best way, but if a person has never had a six figure earnings year over an entire career, that person might want to consider why we are seeing many folks who are talented enough to pick up those pay packages leave their stable jobs to start businesses or work at projects oriented towards the crypto space.

Crypto isn't a sure thing and could be gone in 10 years, but if I have to choose between the ideas of folks with track records of outperformance versus folks with 20-40yr career track records of mediocrity, I guess I know where I will lay my bets. ????‍♂️

38 minutes ago, Susco said:

unless you can post a credible source, which shows the intrinsic value of any crypto

I thought about making a detailed post about this, but then I read every response since my last comment and now I don't feel like it would do any good to attempt to explain the value proposition to a demographic of essentially my grandparents; skeptical people for whom crypto positions are unlikely to be suitable anyway ????.

But what I will do is link the below articles and folks can read them if interested.

Here is a good article that explains why a cryptocurrency - Ethereum in this case - might be valuable.

Here is a research memo from *checks notes* Goldman Sachs that discusses some of the risks and opportunities in the crypto space. The memo contains various views on the underlying potential of the technology.

And just because of the demo on this forum, here are a couple of articles from Forbes that I haven't read and am including only for name recognition since everyone on Main Street Thai Visa knows Forbes. Article 1 and Article 2.

---

To be clear, this is presented for knowledge purposes only and is not intended to entice anyone to invest in any asset.

Assuming you identify the legitimate projects, a long investment in a crypto asset is a speculative bet on the technology gaining widespread adoption and accordingly, on the value of blockchain networks and the products that are offered on those networks.

It is uncertain whether these projects will be able to carve out niches long term and, even if they are successful in doing so, the extent to which they will be adopted and used.

However, the above statement is very different from something being an outright scam.

(That being said, there definitely are a ton of scams and ponzis in the space, but that's a different conversation).

On 5/30/2021 at 5:36 PM, Susco said:

So yes I quote articles that confirm my OPINION, same as you do, but seemingly you can not agree that someone has a different OPINION as you, and everybody is only allowed to quote articles that share your views.

 

Maybe better you move on if you can't live with that.

I am totally fine with articles that contradict my beliefs. You can't be a great investor without considering the merits of differing views.

What I find difficult to accept is that - prior to now - you've treated your position as de facto correct and have generally refused to engage in any meaningful discussion on why crypto assets may or may not have value.

My intention isn't to be an <deleted> here, and I am sorry if this is harsh. But you are coming across as a bad faith actor, and if you're going to mock people who are going through losses (which is never fun), then I gotta speak up ????‍♂️

26 minutes ago, Susco said:

On this forum nobody (except @Heng) will admit that they bought and are now saddled with a loss, but you will see them come out of the woods in droves, in the unlikely case it get way above 60K anytime soon.

 

The tulips are wilting, dispose of them while you still can

I am up on my crypto allocation in general, but am about 33% down on some of the new positions that I bought into during the recent dip.

But dude, you are literally a walking example of confirmation bias. You regularly trumpet articles that support your views while overlooking anything that does not. More than that, you add materially nothing of substance to this conversation because you either refuse to, or unable to, engage with nuance.

Have asked this before and will ask it again. Specifically what is your background/qualifications and what is your financial track record, that you can claim with such certainty to have an information advantage over everyone else? ????