chiang mai

"But why inform of departure Nothing to be gained", Sometimes, some of us do things, not just because there is something to be gained but because we're playing by the rules and it's the right thing to do.

@Thailand My personal experience is very different from what I have read at the start of this thread. I had been Thai resident for many years and my UK State Pension was frozen as of the date I left the UK in 2004. In 2018 I returned to the UK, purchased a flat and set about making myself UK resident once again. It took about three months and required support of my MP and also a letter to the Secretary of State, Amber Rudd. My intention at the time was to spend 6 months in the UK and 6 months in Thailand but to be UK resident for all purposes. After 3 months I received a letter from DWP confirming that I was once again UK resident and that my UK State Pension would be permanently uprated, the letter is copied below but is redacted to protect personal information. After a further two months I left the UK and returned to Thailand, the colder weather was starting to wear me down. The following year I returned to the flat and spent two months there with my wife on holiday, before we returned to Thailand. We were ticketed to return in the Spring of 2020 but Covid intervened and our flight was cancelled.....we have not returned since and the flat has remained tenanted, Per the letter below: I am very comfortable that my permanent and settled lifestyle is that I travel frequently and spend time in different countries but always return to live on the UK, often after a period of many years away. I am also very comfortable that the next time I return to the UK I will once again claim settled UK residency and my pension will be permanently uprated. The letter follows: I am responding to the email dated 1 April 2019 to which included the Rt. Hon Amber Rudd MP about your UK residency status. I should explain that due to the Secretary of State’s wide ranging responsibilities, it is not always possible for her to respond to every letter personally. In this instance I have been asked to reply. I was sorry to read of your concerns and on receipt of your email I arrange for your UK residency status to be investigated. I can confirm the International Group (IG) does not undertake Statutory Residence Tests (SRT). However, they did write to you on 20 December 2018 asking some questions about your residential status in the UK and abroad, this was to establish whether you are a habitually resident in the UK. As you have spent a significant time abroad we needed to establish whether you are now habitually resident in the UK. I understand that you returned to the UK on 1 July 2018, then left for an extended stay in Thailand on 6 November 2018 . As this was approximately 4 months after returning to the UK and because State Pension (SP) rates can be frozen, depending on the country of residence, IG required information to establish whether your stay in Thailand was temporary and to confirm that your country of residence is the UK. **Redact** IG has accepted that you are habitually resident in the UK from 28 June 2018. Your SP is paid up to 27 March 2019 at £xx per week, Increasing to £xx per week from 11 April 2019. It may help if I explain that your country of habitual residence is not decided on the number of days spent in a particular country. IG considered your individual circumstances, taking into account a number of factors such as: whether you retains a residence and continues to have financial commitments in the UK, when he goes abroad is your intention to return to the UK did purchase a return ticket do you own property abroad and have financial commitments in that country There are other factors which IG will consider when making a habitual residence decision and each decision is based on that customer’s circumstances. I have asked IG to write to you to confirm they consider your country of residence to be the UK. In the meantime, should you have any further questions about this matter you can write to, Complaints Resolution Manager, The Pension Service 4, Mail Handling Site A, Wolverhampton. WV98 1AG or by telephoning 0191 613 8158. Once again thank you for your enquiry, I hope I have clarified the current position. Yours sincerely Complaints and Correspondence Manager

It's questionable whether "most" are, judging from what is written and the times of most forum activity.

Because: - government debt remains low by comparison to other countries; - the debt is 95% in Thai Baht with very low foreign currency debt; - the historic trend is for THB to strengthen so capital inflows are already speculating on that by buying Baht; - large foreign currency reserves support the export trade. You should understand that most of the Baht strengthening has resulted from USD becoming weaker, because the US Fed has reduced interest rates and is forecast to continue doing so. The only Baht strengthening has come from speculative capital inflows.

An article on THB from a few days ago, perhaps interesting for those who haven't read it. https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/2870433/all-eyes-on-thai-baht There seems to be an acknowledgement that the MPC will cut rates in October and that the Baht will remain volatile for the rest of the year, potentially heading back to 36 by the end of the year. There's a second but unscheduled article below by Chartchai, who is a highly regarded economist. He discusses Baht exchange rates, again, a very interesting read as always from this highly regarded economist. https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2872367/bot-ought-to-revise-exchange-rate-policy Chartchai argues that the recent Baht appreciation was largely the result of speculative inflows. He goes on to argue that whilst the BOT is on target by managing the Baht against NEER and REER (trade weighted and currency bucket comparisons), that doesn't hep exporters. he also says that he calculates the fair exchange rate to be 36, not BOT's 33. Je also repeats this mantra of Thai exports being too expensive when the rate is tot strong at 33. What he doesn't mention is the large excess profits Thai exporters were making when the rate was at 37! He also doesn't mention that 33 was a fair rate for exporters for many years, what happened, did Thai cost inflation suddenly become so much greater than anywhere else in the world that it now requires a 10% increase prices! I think there are two factors not mentioned in this argument. One is that suppliers in competing countries are able and willing to undercut Thai prices and are eating into Thai market share, they are becoming more competitive. Secondly, Thai's are renowned for being unwilling to reduce prices and that probably also means they wont reduce their sales forecasts estimates either. If the exchange rate eats into their profit margin, that's not seen as a valid reason to reduce the selling price, it may even make them increase it....how many times before have we seen evidence of that in the Thai economy! If we're approaching hjgh season, prices must be increased, no exceptions and regardless of whether there are customers or not!!! SO, whether or not this whole business is exchange rate related, is not entirely clear, I think it may well just be an excuse that isn't valid, once you dig into things. Let's face it, even Chartchai says that the BOT is right on target with its NEER and REER exchange rates.

I don't know how much money other people spend here every month but I certainly don't spend the large sums that some others seem to imagine is needed. I have two pensions remitted here every month which at todays rate of exchange total about 55k a month and that's plenty to see us through the month without cutting corners or scrimping. It helps that we own our house plus my wife has her own business so there are no financial demands there, but I pay all monthly expenses. I have other income that remains overseas every month, another pension, an investment account and rental income. I also have ample Baht on hand to see us through any emergencies or desire for holidays or large purchases. Many of the expats that I know, brought over decent amounts, fifteen or twenty years ago when exchange rates were very good, knowing they wouldn't last. Of course that meant having some faith in Thai banks and also our choice of partners, and in Thailand overall. You don't need huge amounts every month to live well in this country but life style is major factor.

A few posts further back.

An interesting theory. But the Baht only strengthens when USD is sold to buy Baht, any Thai corporate that was making an overseas acquisition wouldn't be doing that. From memory, most of those acquisitions have been made in the UK and Europe where earnings are not in USD. Selling GBP or Euro's against THB wouldn't have anything like the same effect. A simpler and more probable explanation is the one sided trade surplus and balance of trade numbers, this is the same problem that the US Fed has when it refers to Thailand as a currency manipulator. If Thailand imported more, it would be selling THB against USD and helping keep the currency weaker but protectionism of the home market and home products doesn't allow that.

Apparently it's a 1% risk. https://www.kcretina.com/blog/treatment-for-cataract-surgery-complications-retinal-detachment#:~:text=Although relatively rare%2C retinal detachment,patient's lifetime after cataract surgery.

I don't see there's any evidence that the Baht strengthens against USD in high season every year. https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=THB&to=USD&view=5Y

I don't know how many tourists would cancel a holiday in Thailand, just because the rate was 43 instead of 47, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't, but that's just me.

Dr's Preeyanuch and Voraporn, bothe associate professors have good reputations, I've been treated by both and have no major complaints. I also had laser repair done by Paradee, an experience I may share privately but not in the forum.

I'm told by friends who have a business on Chanklan that the flooding is from underground sources, presumably via the drainage system.

A Thai trader sells widgets that are priced in Baht, if an overseas buyer wants to buy those widgets he agrees a sales price in Baht, not in USD, because the seller is Thai, is based in Thailand and he spends Baht. The seller has the option to ship the product and await payment in Baht but that’s risky and may mean a long wait until he is paid. The alternative is to demand cash payment up front, which most overseas buyers will resist, for obvious reasons. The compromise solution is for the seller to use an EXIM Bank who will manage the export process and ensure both parties are satisfied and that payment is only made when the goods are satisfactorily received. But because the overseas buyer’s home currency is not Baht, the Bank uses USD as the transaction currency. The buyer is not interested in the THB/USD exchange rate because it’s not relevant to him. The buyer is only interested in the exchange rate he must pay using his home currency against USD. And since foreign currencies move in different ways against USD, the sellers home currency may move differently to the way the Baht moves (hard pegged, soft pegged, crawling peg, cross rate free floating etc etc). Buyers of Thai exports only care about the value of their home currency against USD (if the trade is settled in the traditional way) and whether or not their home economy is sufficiently buoyant to where they can sell what they have bought from Thailand, in their home country, at the right price. The value of THB/USD is of no interest to them, unless they are buying currency which they can’t do anyway.

BOT has a rule whereby exporters must sell their foreign currency income to the bank, within a specific timeframe. Until recently, that was within one year although now they are allowed to invest those funds overseas. BOT made the latest change quite recently, the purpose behind it being to attempt to weaken the Baht rather than constantly intervening in the markets themselves. Previously, every time an exporter sold USD earned from exports, to the BOT to buy Baht, that caused THB to strengthen. In the past, BOT rules have been the cause of the Baht strengthening but they are slowly addressing that. The second part of your question has to do with balance of trade and yes, Thailand has frequently operated a trade surplus in the past. I don't think trade subsidies are the issue but I do think restrictions on imports might be. There's a lot of protectionism of the home market products and suppliers which shows up in the shops through a lack of choice of quality products at competitive prices.

"So if buyer places an order in January for x amount of Thai baht". I read that as a person buying Baht. But assuming you mean product, not Baht: Prices of goods fluctuate based on supply/demand, input/commodities prices, weather (in the case of agricultural products and many other factors, I doubt there's any such thing as a continually fixed price A buyer agrees a price for product X at point A in time, the price for product X at point B in time may well be expected to be different. The seller makes a greater profit when the rate swings in his favour and has to accept a cut when it doesn't. The seller doesn't have to sell but choses to, an an agreed price, using the prevailing rate of the day. It's late now.....pick this up in the AM if necessary.

It is for married retirees.

Your talking about currency trading and FOREX rather than the effect of baht value on exports, two very different things. The Baht is a restricted currency that cannot be freely exported so nobody can place orders such as you have described, without BOT specific approval. Entities outside of Thai borders are heavily regulated as to how much THB they are allowed to hold, if they exceed those limits, BOT will not allow them to do business in Thailand or with anyone connected to Thailand where the transaction must go via the bank. Thai exporters sell their goods overseas and typically finance their trades via EXIM, the bank of export/import which uses USD as the middle man. The seller wants Baht, the buyer may be paying in their local currency, both halves come together at the USD exchange rates for the respective currencies.

Do you mean, Foreign Currency Reserves? Foreign Currency Reserves are designed to guarantee trade, they give confidence that the foreign buyer of Thai products will be paid and and also by the BOT to help maintain Baht stability. They are held at the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) but are owned by the BOT, NOT by the government who is unable to access them. Once the FCRs reach a certain level, equal to about 6 months of imports, the cease to have a meaningful role. If the BOT only held say three months, Baht value would be compromised because Thai trade credit would be in question but beyond 6 months, there's no impact.

They've not done a bad job this year. We have a klong that flows across our land and it's been channelling water full bore for the past two months, all the feeds from the main water source have been the same way for weeks. The problem now is that the reservoir at Mae Tang is now at capacity and they will be forced to release water from the dam, into the Ping, this evening, locals around the dam have already been warned......that will make the CM situation markedly worse.

Thai citizens only I see, sad.

There have been several studies over the years that show export volumes are not significantly impacted by the exchange rate of the country that is selling, but almost entirely by the state of the economy of the country that is buying. Any loss that does occur is in THB revenue to the seller, but there is almost no change in volume terms. Most export trade bills are settled in USD, which means the buyer is not impacted by the Baht/dollar exchange rate, no matter if it strengthens or weakens. What does happen is exporters try to increase their price, to compensate for the loss of exchange rate, and this has the potential to reduce export volumes. https://www.bot.or.th/content/dam/bot/documents/en/our-roles/monetary-policy/mpc-publication/monetary-policy-report/mpr-box/MPR_2018_Q2_BOX2.pdf

See Paradee at Sriphat will be the less expensive option.

Chang Klan is flooded, a friend with a business there sent a video this morning.....nasty.

"They mentioned that if one has no assessable income (i.e. only have exempted govt pension or social security) then one does not need to get a Thai tax number nor file any tax form". That confirms what we already understood, but still doesn't shed light on the much debated, somewhat contentious, middle ground scenario where there is some assessable income but not enough to pay tax.......it would be nice to lay that one to bed with confirmation from an external source.