My Friend Same

Anyone heard of Vioxx? they were supposed to be finished (Merck). Gee what happened there?

The media hype was just that. Exxon Valdez. Media - BLOOMBERG, CNBC, NYT, GOLDman, wsj. You get the picture, Watch out for the hype, the controllers. They need to scare everyone who owns the stock. Get em to sell it. Push it down as far as possible ($26 mrk in 2005, back to $60 in 2 years). Yeah after they puke everyone out, they swoop in and gobble it up and then hype it in the up direction to triple their money. How many times have I seen this? They need a jail the size of CT to cage all these thieves

BP's price now depends on so many imponderables that are more political than financial that it remains impossible to attempt to define value. Speculators may look and decide that the risk (further falls extending to the entire value of BP if it's out out of business and there is no residual equity left on the closure of the business) is outweighted by whatever the upside is from here.

I suspect that there are smarter ways to play the opportunity though based on the fact that market assumptions may be flawed - option pricing could well be making false assumptions about the stochastic volatility of BP's price -

1) I see that the structured product providers are rushing out BP-based products. The retail ones that I've seen so far are wildly over simplified but I believe that it's possible to exploit these to generate a premium today for taking a 12 month position that sees you 100% positively exposed to share price movement of -20%to+15% from today's pricing neutral on falls of 20%+ and 15-30% and leaving yourself -100% exposed on gains of 30% plus. If you felt confortable that you could trigger-buy into a rising BP in a way that mitigates the cost of that risk and assuming that BP pay some dividends, this would appear to be free money but it then hinges on BP vol in that +15to+30% range over the next 12 months

2) You could buy a basket of stocks of the participants in the well problem - it's not just BP that have been marked down so badly - but will the blame be shared equally - will BP/Transocean/Halliburton take an equal caning here - if so is 50% excessive? or will the blame largely devolve to BP in which case the others are the buy here? buy an equal basket of the related stocks and as long as the final outcome is overall positive for the basket, you're doing OK

3) The entire sector seems to be suffering (not to the extent of the participants admittedly) but is it reasonable to have a 25% markdown in the price of oil service companies that have no exposure to this situation?

There's an opportunity here for sure - it's too speculative for my taste and I'm happy to not participate as for my requirements the risks here outweight the upsides. As I pointed out sarcastically to Sokal a few days and several dozens of points of price action ago, I think that you need something more scientific than a previous pricing chart to define BP's value right now.

Goldman estimates that the the all the claims combined against BP will add up to 180 billion dollars. That is enough to bankrupt them. The question is, will the UK government allow this to happen ? BP accounts for 12% of all dividends paid in the UK. It is the UK's largest corporation.

Will BP assume all the costs of the clean up if they where forced by special interest groups to drill in deep water rather then the shallow water closer to shore ?

you just hit the nail on the head right there pal. Goldman knows everything, right? Nobody smarter. They are the market controller criminals! 180 bil is horseshit.

You need a work permit to open a bank account now, love it or leave it. It's just the facts maaam

Is their a shortage of massage tables in bkk? lol

You guys better be careful. Israel controls your brains through cnbc and nyt. dont it suck. they got you right where they want you. BP going out of Biz. remember cnbcstein told ya so

You are my idol, Mick. I want to try for thai citizenship. I'm married to a thai now for 5 months and I lived here for 8 years before that on tourist visas. How can I do it? possible? I dont speak any thai except simple words

My non Issan wife and I did the Amphur marriage and and scrapped the official one as she told me that it was a scam for others to get cash. She's a doll. We take care of her mother and step father super great and that's it. no bothers or sisters in the family. I got lucky

How many passports has your wife washed by mistake. I see this most recent one was for her new name. Wow Tropo, you filippine wife has really been put thru the ringer but your dream of Pattaya living with her has finally been realized, Many congrats on that after years of co-visa runs, visa denials and all kinds of crap. I was this close to bringing a filippina here to bkk but at the last second I met the non issan girl of my dreams. Man I felt lucky after hearing all the stories, I reside in heaven now

Why would you want to live in Thailand.

<deleted> does this have to do with visas?

I think 50% of the falongs will live off the lay of the Issan land that they have with the Issan girl they met in the bar

yeah, my wife has been studying this US visa process for a while and she knew you'd get it due to your gf's education and work staus. Also she said that svenn's husband got his because he is a ladyboy and wont have kids and such in the USA. We will be trying for ours soon with high hopes. cheers

wow, I thought my friend was getting played lol

This can not be a serious post.

Most obvious troll post I ever did see

She has told me that no salon will hire her for less than six days a week at 15 hours a day. She has told me that no one will hire her part time. So she stays home all day and complains she is bored.

Just a thought, if cash is a problem why doesn't she work part time, seems she can double your money. What does she do now not working. If you buggered off she would be back working.

Do NOT let your lady control you (cash) even if she is your dream come true.

Hi OP, here's the big secret no one talks about. Go to her village in Issan and live happily ever after on 3000 baht per month for a 10 person family. I know 74 falongs personally who do this. Shhhhh though, quiet and you didnt hear it from me. Blame some other poster

I was willing to give her a pass for most of her misinformed views, until I got to the very last sentence in that article.

That was just totally uncalled for. I don't even believe it. Sounds to me like she made the whole thing up. Come on. There must be people here who live in Nong Khai and are regulars at "Ice Bar". Do you remember this miserable excuse for a human that calls herself a reporter? I seriously doubt there was ever anyone called Terry. Nobody would say that. Nobody. Even if they thought it, they wouldn't say it out loud.

What a disgusting cretin this Jessica Olien is. Everyone in Thailand with the first name of Terry should sue her for slander. Couldn't win of course, but it might make an impression.

OK so she did make up some lies but some of the stuff was the truth; such as the fact that most of Thailand sex workers are from Issan. That's a fact. and the fact that thaivisa is part sexpat forum in that many sexpats do use the forum, though of course none of you

I'm very happy about this. Throw away the key on the idiot/jackass.

You'll still get the bar goers meeting their future wives and moving to Issan. This will never change; not a chance

How worn out is the bottom of your mouse? These are pressing and important Thai related issues that should be clogging this important general forum.

I literally had hundreds of filipino "friends" try and scam cash from me using this zoom thing. I used to play with them and say I had 200K USD in credit cards (which I do). They'd go wild and tell me to sign up for ZOOM. What happened to xoom? no filipino ever got a baht of my cash though cause it was always a scam. Thais yes I've given cash to no prob. I say just send her a credit card to use as she pleases

Completely absurd! I am an adult with little to fear from the Red Shirts, or anyone else in Bangkok. Once again, the Thai government chooses to treat its citizenry and the others living here as if we are all 12 years old. Why is it that every "solution" from these guys tends towards the lose- lose category? Incidentally, I walked around last night at 10PM. It was quiet, but there were still normal people out and about. One taxi even tried to pick me up for a fare.

So your solution is that everyone that looks like a farang should be able to be out and about? And where exactly should we go since the rest of the millions of people are restricted to their homes? A taxi driver and "normal" people (whatever that means) that are breaking curfew is your reasoning for breaking the curfew as well? The vast majority of Red's are regular people that are fighting for something they believe in, but there is an element (obviously) in that group that would love to take this to another level with guns, bombs, fires and other destructive measures. They have already been named terrorists and if caught will be executed. What is there to lose now? You are foolish to act as though this curfew is an inconvenience when in all practicality YOU the foreigner is a prime reason why the curfew was put in place to begin with. How do you think it is going to play to the rest of the world when the first TOURIST from the UK or USA is blown away by a grenade while they are taking a stroll out on the street? The Red's did not get their way... what makes you think that moving them out of the downtown has broken their resolve? Stop crying about a few days of curfew and wake up to the fact that this isn't the typical "coup" scenario that we've seen in the past with the Thai government. This is a movement that has a strong support structure made up of (to use your description) "normal" Thai people. I hope that the radical element in that group does not go to new tactics including bombing locations where foreigners go so that they completely cripple this government. A curfew is small price to pay to help enable the military and police to stop, detain and disrupt the Red's that intend harm to society. Get a grip.

I didn't say anything about everyone who looks like a farang should be out and about. Those are your words not mine, chief. Normal people means motorcycle taxi drivers, street vendors, old men, young ladies, etc. Don't kid yourself for a minute that I, or any other foreigners in Thailand are the Prime reasons the curfew was put in place. Quite frankly, your concerns about how it would play to the rest of the world if a foreigner were hurt or killed is moot. Thailand has never shown much concern over that. My whole point. Beginning to end through this whole thread, is that the Thai government knee jerked an over the top reaction. They did. Full stop. The lack of any breaking news today, thus far at least, is just proving that point> I don't know why there are so many on here that are so adamant about railing against someone with an opinion. Have you been out today? I have. I drove through six postal codes in central Bangkok. It's a beautiful sunny day, and there is nothing untoward going on. Pull your heads out of the sand. The sky isn't falling, and as far as crippling this government goes, that has been pretty much achieved.

I'm proud of you, so proud. You are my hero

Completely absurd! I am an adult with little to fear from the Red Shirts, or anyone else in Bangkok. Once again, the Thai government chooses to treat its citizenry and the others living here as if we are all 12 years old. Why is it that every "solution" from these guys tends towards the lose- lose category? Incidentally, I walked around last night at 10PM. It was quiet, but there were still normal people out and about. One taxi even tried to pick me up for a fare.

The curfew is there to protect Bangkok and it's citizens - people like you and me.

The less people there are on the streets - the easier it is to distinguish between troublemakers with bad intentions and innocents.

So keeping us innocent bystanders inside will keep us safe and make the job of clearing up the troublemakers quicker and easier.

And then hopefully normality can return quickly and we can all stay out all night long again until the sun rises

yes but you see he dont get that. he has a learning disability; he was dropped on his head from the 2nd floor when he was an hour old. he did survive the drop but that's about it. Thank you though for trying to point out the common sense of the curfew. u r a noble man

And all this from a holocaust denier!! I've read your other posts... I think you're the one dropped on his head

So this is your #2 ID out of how many? Nice that you come out and acknoweldge your other IDs.

I read in the New York Times that the four leaders who surrendered yesterday, before the greatest unrest and the fires, at the speaking platform inside the Red Shirts area pleaded with those there to just give up that day and to pick up later on, that they could carry on this struggle later on. However, the crowd booed them! The leaders then left to be tried for treason. I really do not believe that, in the hearts of those who lead these demonstrations, they were at all intent on violence; they wanted to peacefully achieve something that the crowd really wants: liberty, equality and fraternity, not the "peace and bread" offerred by the Bolsheviks before the 1917 Revolution. I am sure that these people really care more about Thailand and the future of Thailand than people here seem to give credit. Why are so many here not interested in the deeper ideas behind the protests of the Red Shirts? Is it that you have a "position" here that is comfortable and, of course, with a higher economic level than most Thais will ever enjoy and you are afraid to lose it? Is it that you are carrying with you a certain sense that you are of some higher class or ethnicity than most Thais?

When I move to Thailand in 2011, I know that I will be a guest there. I will act as a guest. I will, most certainly, develop friendships there as well with people of many "classes" as well. I would hope that we could discuss things that are happening in Thai social, political, economic and cultural areas openly and that they can educate ME. I will certainly not be there to dictate what the people want, need or do. When I was there for a month on Phuket, I was fortunate to make friends there and to be able, to this day, to ask questions honestly and to discuss them freely (of course there are some things forbidden and I will not go there with them at all as I respect that as a matter of course). As a "farang" myself, I will never stand in judgement of the actions of any group in Thailand for it is, most certainly, not my "place." Fortunately, you have this forum to talk in and to say as you please to the same extent as I have.

Please, tell me, politically, socially and economically, where the Red Shirts are "off base" here! Also, what are the goods as well as the negatives of BOTH the Red Shirts AND the Yellow Shirts. What are, as you see it, the platforms of each group and how do they mesh or not mesh with the current Thai political, social and economic structure. What are the "classes" in Thai society? Where are you in terms of this heirarchy?

Thank you so much. You may email me directly, if you wish to establish a dialog over time, at [email protected].

Take care. Hopefully, for now, this is settled. However, I am sure that this entire thing will be revisited in the not-too-distant future.

Glad to hear that after 1 month here, and with intention to move here next year, that you are so well informed on the social, political, and economic situation that you are able to advise all us long term expats how we should behave.

Thanks.

Yes and didnt they make a movie about dudes like that. dam whats the name of that movie, it's on the tip of my tongue. Wait I got it, the movie was "Jackass 3"

Personally I disobey the curfew - I value my freedom more than anything else. There might be some risk associated with my attitude but I'm willing to take it. I spent a couple of hours last night just riding my motorbike all around Chiang Mai. With very few cars and bikes on the street it was great fun. Only saw a lonelz policeman on a bike and he didn't seem to be interested in me at all.

I think some of you are taking this curfew thing way to serious, but if you want to stay at home that is your call of course.

I'm so proud of you! You're so brave and so right too! Chang Mai? Come on down and start riding around Silom and Din Daeng you lousy chicken you. Once a pussy always a pussy

Are there any travel restrictions for daylight hours? Are the BTS and MRT open? Are there barricades still on Shumvit?

Sorry if this is the "wrong" place to ask, but I don't know how else to find out.

Thank the "stars" for Thai Visa and all of you.

Cheers,

Keoki

yes there are many soldiers 24 hours a day at every intersection near Nana and Asok. Forget about chitlom and siam direction

Provinces under State Of Emergency (SOE) and Curfew:

Chonburi, Samut Prakan, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Ayutthaya, Khon Kaen, Udon Thani, Chaiyaphum, Nakhon Ratchasima, Si Sa Ket, Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Nan, Lampang and Nakhon Sawan, Bangkok and Nonthaburi and parts of Samut Prakan, Pathum Thani, Nakhon Pathom, Ubon Ratchahani, Maha Sarakam, Roi-et, Nongbua Lumpoo, and Sakhon Nakorn, Kalasin and Ayutthaya

the people are pissed now the war will start poor against the rich not a lot a curfew will do to stop it

not poor vs rich, it's thaksin pawns vs persons with brains and education. lets get that straight

THAI GOVERNMENT IS A KINDERGARDEN!

Now the citiziens and businesses even in unaffected areas have to suffer from their incompetence! They should have cleaned up this mess the day the protests started. And the curfew what good is it outside bkk, udon, chiang mai? How many red shirt lootings has Pattaya and Chonburi had? Well, none but lets just impose a curfew, why not its kinda cool.

Yesterday they said one night. then its 3 more nights. probably 3 more weeks they way this incompetent bunch of idiots behaved since the start of the crisis.

Why do the citizens and businesses should follow these idiotic orders?? The red shirts were the ones hijacking and destroying property. They certainly did not follow any laws?! What good will come from that curfew outside of certain areas of BKK? Complete joke which makes thailand show its real face that of a coward incompetent nation with incompetent citizens to boot.

I ask all self thinking individuals NOT to follow this silly order!

do not spend even one unnecessary baht in this pathetic country! let them feel the full swing of low season, worldwide recession, terrible exchange rates and let them suffer for their increasingly bad service, corrupt police, hostile attidude, incompetent leadership, ridicoulous education and xenophobic, self-centered world view. RIP THAILAND. SOM NUM NAA

catch ya later. enjoy your trip back to wherever ya came from. you shant be missed