Base32

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2024-07-07/vice-president-trump-biden-running-mate-election-2024 Couple of wartime Democrat VPs there who were terrible for reasons no one can remember. Polls like this come out everytime there is an election because one or both of the has to be "terrible" according the the candidates. Thats why they are campaigning. In slightly less febrile times; https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4103153-kamala-harris-is-far-from-the-worst-vice-president-why-do-polls-say-otherwise/ At every elections, half truths and sometimes are spouted, as politicians scramble for every vote. The outright lies usually get found out during the campaign, and then its some action to mitigate the harm. But now its gotten to new heights. Take the case of George Santos; it seems utterly absurd how such a person got anywhere near office. But now its routine, and the lying is influential, even when found out. I know some people dismiss the role of a malign power like Putin's Russia, but this is what he has done. He has undermined our faith in politics such that "we" believe politicians are all liars, but we vote for them anyhow, like in Putin's Russia. There are a few of reasons for that. One is to shore himself up at home; there is political opposition in Russia, but its small, and the people indifferent. If he can demonstrate the Western democracies are rotten, then that undermines the messages of the opposition groups. Then there is the mission to extend Russia's influence overseas. Putin still believes in the USSR (greatest tragedy of the 20th century etc) and believes Russia is still a super power (the war in Ukraine is demonstrating it is not). He believes Russia is in competition with the USA for the souls of the world (ignoring China, and forgetting about Islam, given 10% of Russians are Muslim). He's embraced this Eurasian nonsense, which signals out the "Atlanticists" (the USA, Canada, Britain, Australia-New Zealand) as being the cause of all the world's woes, and seriously believes the world is better off without us. To win his hearts and minds, he's got to persuade the world that the Atlanticists are a rotten lot, not to be trusted, and part of that is making a mess of a societies, so that no one thinks about things like parliamentary elections again. His brutal support of Syria was to demonstrate that only Russia can bring order, not America. Its easily forgotten that despite all the flag burning, many Arabs love America. They might not like America's policies, but they love the idea of America, hence the many influential American Universities in the region. He needs to snuff that out, and disappoint them. In Syria, his policies were to ensure that the Russian navy still had refuelling facilties in Syria, which is utterly essential for any of the Black Sea fleet, whats left of it, to operate out of the Black Sea. The third objective of his undermining of Western democracies is to paralyse us. The polarisation of societies in the US, Canada, UK, France, Germany and Italy is intended to undermine our ability to come to collective decisions, react to events, and sew distrust. 5 Eyes depends on utter trust between the allies and their leadership, but now apparently, elements within the previous UK government were talking about gaming out a Trump win as a worst case scenario, and how the UK Armed Forces need to prepare for that (eg exiting of US bases from the UK, various capabilty agreements coming to an end, cessation of cooperation between UK and US forces). Trump can't actually take the US out of NATO; he won't live long enough given the process, but what he can do is to stop the US acting as an ally, follow the French approach of non-cooperation. If that happened, there are practical things the UK needs to do, such as figuring out how to secure control of Trident (or indeed, getting rid of it), canceling the F35 orders and so forth. How did we get to that point; two countries with a much vaunted Special Relationship, now distrusting each other. Trumpf is reportedly anti-NATO, and views it as a protection racket. His VP (who, as far as I can see, has achieved FA during his short working career) is even more anti-NATO, despite a service career

It won't work. Too many lunatics who would take a potshot. People shoot each other over trivial issues. In 2010, among males. there were 15 firearm deaths per 100,000. By 2020, it was 22 per 100,000 (DaCruz, Bryant University, , but gun ownership is more or less the same (Gallup). Its not because of more crime. In 2010, the crime rate was 389 reported crimes per 100,000, by 2019, it was down to 360 per 100,000 (Statista). People are just shooting each other more.

Susan Thistlethwaite

You have no clue about me. You cannot "buy" (sic) my opinion. And what is "traditional America"? Redcoats? Lynchings? Segregation? Coke floats? Turkey with trimmings? Pizza? Cahokia Mounds? Traditional America doesn't like braggards, with trophy wives, who's father stiffed the US people during a war of survival. Traditional America doesn't like people who made their fortune on the backs of others. They like people who made stuff. Trumpf never made a thing in his life. Why are you grieving over "weaponization" (sic) of unelected bureaucrats. You prefer elected bureaucrats. The rest of the world laughs at America for electing police chiefs, prosecutors and judges. You prefer the process of electoral cronyism to actually appointing people to the job based on skills, then firing them when they are not up to it. You don't know the difference between "to grieve" and a grievance. Given that poor use of English, and knowing many Americans when I lived in Alabama and Tennessee (with a smidgen of Missouri), I will conclude you are someone posing as an American, and that English is not your mother tongue. I don't think you understand the meaning of "political shill" either. Its just a term your handlers instructed you to use. Colonel Adam Kinzinger, after serving 3 tours in Iraq (well technically over Iraq), entered politics and was endorsed by Governor Palin. He won all his elections very solidly. He refused to vote on any climate change legislation that would raise taxes. Quite conservative. He sponsored a bill to enable combat medics to transfer their skills more easily to civvie street. Supporting the tropps, very conservative. He voted to support 2017 Republican reforms to healthcare legislation that would have repealed much of the ACA. Very conservative. He supported Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017; cutting taxes, positively Reaganesque. He constantly tweeted #chinahidthevirus. Trumpf would approve. He thought alleged kiddie fiddler Matt Gaetz should have stepped down while he was investigated for sordid trafficing of minors. That seems conservative. He supported cross state line carry laws. Conservative. On January 6 2021, he had a bad feeling and went to the Capitol rocking a .380 Rugar ACP. That is totally fecking conservative American. He seems a man of principle; he doesn't see eye to eye on many issues with those across the aisle. For most of his adult life, he has served his country. He clearly believes in Law and Order and the US Constitution. He clearly decided that Trumpf is little more than a Pound Shop (Dollar Store) Mussolini (Mussolini, for all his pouting, did actually develop clear principles). His going away speech: I quite like the cut of his jib. I hold in great esteem those in public service, in uniform or out uniform. And for those in uniform, the greatest respect for the reservists, the part timers; they sacrifice so much. I've seen much the same in the UK; the finest conservative minds hounded out of parliament by a scoundral who misused, lied to and abused his Sovereign, utterly destroying a party with hundreds of years of tradition, leaving us at the mery of Labour and the rotten lot at Reform. Trumpf has suckered you, just like he suckered people before he even got into politics.

Do you think the "Church" 100 years ago was anything like 1900 years before it, or the Church 500 years ago was anything like what passed for a Church 1500 years? The infrastructure, the terminology, the language changes (eg. King James Bible, the Tyndale Bible). Heres a thing; the only reason the Gaelic language survived in Ireland was because of Protestant missionaries. In the Catholic churches, the services were mostly in Latin. The congregation hadn't a clue. These missionaries cottoned on to if you wanted new members of the flock, talk to them in a language they understand. It looks like the agnostics/atheists moaning about a changing CoE (the Established Church) have never heard of High Church.

Decent speech from a genuinely conservative Republican (judging from his voting record). Trumpf-supporting Republicans, when you look at their voting records and beliefs, are not really conservative (they don't really understand the term). The same happened with the Tories, and the whole nonsense of Red Wall Tories. The thing about Trumpfism; there are no principles, just grievances. Which means support for Trumpf can be fickle, just waiting for the next David Duke.

I'd, to an extent, agree, except for the mass extermination bit. Make it compulsory to neuter/spade all Bull Terriers and derivatives. Within 10-15 years, the breed will be gone. They all eventually die of cancer anyhow. My Grandad had Staffies; he went by the pedigree etc. All of them short tempered dogs, and they all cost him a fortune when they got cancer.

The other signatories to the NPT also "pontificate" about who else in the world should not have nuclear weapons.

State pensions exist; they are paid through the largesse of today's taxpayers. The military is paid by the taxpayer; its not a private enterprise, which was the case until the early 20th Century, when significant parts of the british military were the Militias, which literally were private armies. Famously, the East India Company had its own armies and navy. Under present rules, residential homes are state subsidised; they take all your money until that last £25k or so. A residential home will easily burn through £50k a year, so for most people, its more or less all gone after 5-6 years. The last Conservative government wanted to put a cap on personal care, so was proposing to initiate effectively a socialist policy (ie. in the end, the State will help you to the grave). Labour has kiboshed that. The Police are also state funded, far removed from the original Bow Street Runners, that were funded throuh a business subscription. Britain still has State funded education, a socialist idea. There is also unemployment benefit and child maintenance support. Its still possible to get social housing. Having a 2 day weekend is a socialist idea. Some say Henry Ford invented it; nah, it was an idea he stole. The 2 day weekend was established in 1843 by Marsden and Lowes who secured a saturday afternoon off for Mancunian workers. Public holidays; an example of the dull hand of government interfering with the private business of enterprise. There is a reason why football matches used to all have a saturday 3pm kickoff. Then there was then paid summer break, invented by French communists in the 1930s. Maternity leave, also very socialist. Free eyeglasses and prescriptions for kids; socialist. Vouchers for childcare; socialist. Veteran's pensions from a grateful nation; socialist. Lots of policies embraced by Brits who describe themselves as anti-socialist, yet would consider many of these things the natural order of things. I suspect many Americans would be quite jealous of the ability to take a paid vacation, take maternity leave or even something like redundancy rights. Market Socialism and Free Market Capitalism are probably dead in the West; we don't make anything to control, because of Free Market Capitalism, and now the most ardent proponants of capitalism are finding themselves espousing quasi-communist (Godwin Law Mk2) policies of protectionism (what gives them the goddam right to tell the owners of a company where they should make things). We are left with vacuous Populism. No one calls themselves a populist; that's a labeled applied by others. Populism has no ideology besides being all things to all men, ideas that bend with the wind. Populism feeds on fear. Charlie Chaplin's largely adlibbed Great Dictator speech still has an impact 90 years later, thanks a bit to an Inception soundtrack https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8HdOHrc3OQ Perhaps the old isms have had their day; they were largely responses to technological changes in society. Our societies are undergoing profound change due to technology, but the question will be whether we become slaves to the technologies or masters. And become masters for what purpose; we want the technologies to fix the problems in the world (eg environmental damage) and to free our time up (which is the general direction of travel taken ever since man discovered fire leading to the paid time off or early retirement in Thailand). This is when we get into gene Roddenberry visions of a society where money has no meaning. Maybe that ism is technoutopianism. Though that is an ideology, but not a political ideology (yet).

Well were. You are getting wound up about a job interview from 7 years ago, that went to an industrial tribunal, which resulted in the faulty policy being ditched. Its a police service. I was in Northern Ireland when the RUC was about. It didn't really represent the community that it policed, because there were hardly any Catholic officers serving. A lot of good has been made in Northern Ireland policing by getting Catholics to join up; it was complex why they weren't. Intimidation from parts of their own community for a start. But also, within the RUC, loyalist infiltrators. Still not perfect, but far better, as the PSNI.

I think it refers to a link embedded in the original version of this article https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/the-police-cant-be-impartial-while-discriminating-white/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/02/22/police-force-guilty-discrimination-rejecting-white-heterosexual/ The full judgement is here, of one doesn't want to read an article containing spin: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5c66abfd40f0b61a1e93a27a/Mr_M_Furlong_v_The_Chief_Constable_of_Cheshire_Police_2405577.18_judgment_and_reasons.pdf If you can't get past the DT paywall (there is a way involving a single key on the keyboard), it refers to a case brought by Matthew Furlong against Cheshire Police at an Industrial Tribunal, where it was found that he was a victim of positive discrimination. He didn't get the job because he was white heterosexual, he didn't get it because the other candidates weren't (his lawyer tried to spin the white heterosexual bit in a comment to journalists). Cheshire Police had been taken to task in 2015 for being one of 4 police forces without a single black officer. Cheshire has an ethnic minority population of 6%. Unlike other police services, Cheshire Police made a disproportionate response to the criticism, by instituting a yes-no selection system with a low threshold, rather than a points system. Basically, the application system involved a series of interviews. Furlong performed well in the interviews by all accounts, and was well prepared. However, Cheshire police merely put in pass/fail for each interview, not a grading, leaving positive discrimination as being the only mechanism of recruit selection. The original article paints a picture of events over the past 5 years, though actually Cheshire Police's issue dates to 2017, with the case being settled in 2019. Notably, Mr Furlong actually withdrew the complaint; his father was a Chief Inspector. He went on to join Cheshire Police. Now why did Cheshire Police come up with the original policy. About a week before the report on Cheshires lack of BAME officer came out, then Home Secretary Theresa May, in a speech to the National Black Police Association Conference, said: At the time, she was in a well publicised spat with Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe, the Metropolitan Police Commissioner, who at the time wanted to increase stop and search, following an increase in knife crime. The Home Office rejected this saying there was no correlation in London boroughs in the level of stop and search and knife crime. The Office of National Statistics thought that the notional rise in knife crime was actually due to the police bothering to report crime, rather than an actual rise. The Chief Constable of Cheshire at the time the new selection was put in place was Simon Byrne, who went on to head the PSNI. Ironically, that is a police force where the demographics are very sensitive. It seems to me that someone in Cheshire Police interpreted the Home Secretary's critique as being "we better recruit 120 ethnic minority officers ASAP", without really understanding the issue.

I've noticed a new variant of Godwin's law, where any internet conversation inevitably results in comparisons to the Nazis Mike Goodwin talking years later about his Law https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2013/03/godwins-law-mike-godwin-hitler-nazi-comparisons.html But actually Godwin's Law predates before even MIke Goodwin was born. It was the East Germans who came up with it in the 50s, when they took umbrage at broadcasts from "Radio in the American Sector", which was obviously broadcasting news about the free world into the GDR. The best the GDR could come up with was to literally call the American broadcasters a bunch of Nazis. Now it seems there are elements of society, for reasons only known to themselves. to substitute Communist/Socialist for Nazi. This isn't the same as Reds-under-the-Bed. Like people who threw around the word Nazi into every conversation, this mob of thickos don't really have any idea of what Communist or Socialist (or Marxist, Trotskyite, Leninist etc) actually means.. Its just some word they heard their grandad used when they were a kid, and now they are using, in same way as "Nazi" to try and shut down discussion, which is very Communist of them. I expect Yellow Peril to see some revival in some quarters (this quite an old term of abuse, reaching back to the 19th century); the Kaiser used the term die Gelbe Gefahr, and used that as the excuse for war with China, which is reality was all about setting the stage for WW1, and ultimately who would hold hegemony over the Globe (the Kaiser thought it should be him).

Firstly, you have to take into account that "Social Media" is deliberately posting provocative articles, often selectively paraphrased, to stoke enmity and division, and, importantly, generate traffic for a forum that was recently sold, and probably, like most other forums now, dying on its knees. "Social Media" I noticed doesn't take a side, just seems to revel is the resulting discourse. I am not sure why you are trying to make this a freedom of speech thing. I suspect <deleted> stirring. The UK has no general right to free speech, but under Common Law, freedom of expression is a negative right , which means the government is obliged to take no action against a person because of their views, but no one else is obliged to help facilitate publishing those viewpoints, nor listen to them nor agree with them. ie some nutter can't demand a tv or radio station propagate his views. They can cut him off, because they are not the government. Those rights are enhanced by the ECHR, which might be moot given that the UK is likely to withdraw from that within the next 10 years. In the case of Ashkan Kareem; you misread the article, maybe because because English is not your first language. He was not arrested for chanting racist and far-right slogans. He was part of a group confronting other rioters. His defence was that he was trying to defend a mosque. But where his defence fell down was because he admitted charging the crowd, and thus guilty of violent disorder. There are allegations he threw something at the crowd, though he claimed it was just a throwing action, which is bordering on the ridiculous. Police footage suggests he threw something, at people or at cars. https://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/2024-08-14/man-caught-on-cctv-throwing-missile-during-violent-disorder-convicted Violoent disorder comes under the Public Order Act 1986, and there are clear sentencing guidelines. You can go to prison for upto 5 years. He plead guilty, so the Judge's job was to sentence. To his (slight) credit, he turned himself in. First the judge considers the level of culpability; A, B or C. C basically means threats of violence, and a lack of planning. Category B involves groups, and a degree of planning; he traveled to "defend the mosque", he wasn't someone passing by who on the spur of the moment, got involved. He was part of a group. Category A means you are Category B, plus you have come tooled up (ie you brought weapons). There is suspicion about whether he brought something to throw; can't be proven. So he was a Category B offender. Next is the level of harm he caused, 1, 2 or 3. 1 is the most serious, and is combinations of harm considered in category 2. Category 2 includes actual injury, destruction of private property, loss of earnings (eg the pub hat to shut, so the staff didn't get paid), cost to the public purse, attacks on police and other public servants. You get the picture. Category 3 is basically making a bunch of threats and shuting. A combination C3 is at the lowest end of the violent disorder spectrum, and for that the starting point is 26 weeks inside; mitigation can bring that down to a community order (cleaning dog <deleted> or something). A1 means probably 4 years inside, but mitigation might bring this down to 3 years. Kareem was probably B3; he could have got 2 years inside, so should consider himself lucky. He will likely be deported after serving his sentence.

20% of US males have a conviction for driving while under the influence by the age of 40, George W Bush has one, Dick Cheney has two. Bush was convicted in 1976, and that had no effect on his election as Governor, nor of course, President 24 years later. He only disclosed it when running for President, and never disclosed it when running as Governor. I would put wife beaters and child abusers as lowest of the low. Alongside rapists, no matter how those rapists want to define rape. But apparently some here would rather rub shoulders with a paedophile than a drunk driver. I doubt that actually true, but I suspect someone who spits out "drunk drivers are the lowest of the low", in the context of a discussion about a politician, don't actually mean that, just stating something for effect. Most drivers caught drinking and driving have made a mistake, and the vast majority never reoffend. Most will try and deny it, saying they were unlucky, the machine didn't work properly, "I felt fine" etc. I can understand why they do that. I don't understand the rapist who attempts to belittle his victim, even after conviction, deny what he did was even a crime, and never expresses regret. Trumpf going to say sorry?

GDPR meams that many US regional affiliates, and sites like Yahoo Japan, will block content from being viewed in Europe, including the UK. Watching RT is a bit like those who used to tune into Radio Moscow during the Cold War in the belief that it gave some sort of balance to Radio 4, the World Service, VoA etc. It didn't of course.

The debacle in Afghanistan was partly driven by the collapse of the ANA, a military force that Trumpf and others spent billions building. Trumpf then went into direct face to face negotiations with the Taliban, undermining the elected government, and no doubt demoralising ANA commanders; he was supposed to have their back. He then ordered rapid drawdowns of US troops. Biden should have reversed that idiotic strategy, and that was his mistake. To his credit, Trumpf's plan was delayed by Biden from May 2020 (complete pullout of NATO) to September 2020. Some say that triggered the ANA forces collapse, others will point out it brought some time to allow most of the Afghan airforce fixed wing to get out, at least denying the Taliban most of their air transport, and ground attack capabilties. Fundementally, Trumpf was naive; he chose to believe the commitments of a fundamentalist religious terrorist grouping over an elected government. The Qatar agreement of February 2020 killed the democratic government of Afghanistan. Trumpf speaking to the Taliban was equivalent to Tricky Dickie selling out the Vietnamese by making friends with Communists. But it would have been the same, or even worse, if Trumpf had been re-elected (by worse, I suspect he would have been less willing to give vital support needed for other NATO members involved in those final operations, so besides US troops being butchered there would have been British, Germans and others.). By any measure, Trumpf's tenure was bad, maybe "not that bad", but that was in spite of him, not because of him, given the way his cabinet ended up at times just ignoring him. In many ways, because of that lack of leadership, he was an exceptionally weak leader, despite all the bombastic speeches, and that relates to him as a business man. Most business men go through building businesses up, and learn the art of leadership through that; they inspire people to work to make a business succeed. Trumpf inherited his. Hence, despite holding advantage, like Jimmy Carter, he failed to be re-elected. Most Presidents seeking re-election, get re-elected, and its PPP to mess that up.

Using that logic, neither does yours. Mr Trump did say, while describing himself as a "non-Christian" (is he pagan now?), told Christians that they won't need to vote.

Someone in authority needs a serious word with this chap; https://x.com/IvanRaiklin/status/1825254679082635623

Confusing times. I thought Trump supporters rather be Russian than a Democrat. Nothing wrong with wanting friendly relations with a religion. If voting democrat means you support Russia, does voting Republican (Trumpian) mean you support rape and adultery? Of course, you'll probably claim the alleged rapey actions by Mr Trump are not true, but it is certainly true he has committed multiple acts of adultery. Then we need to discuss if Leviticus 20:10 and Deuteronomy 22:22 apply. Hamas and Iran's relationship is interesting. Its a relationship of convenience, witha common cause, but on everything else, they are diametrically opposed. The iranian government believes in something called the guardianship of the Jurist. Essentially, there should be a leading Islamic jurist, or scholar, who enjoys complete authority until the 12 Inman arrives, kind of like the second coming, and how the Pope is seen among Roman Catholics. Hamas though adheres to the Muslim Brotherhood, which was an ideology that emerged before WW2, and was heavily influenced by European fascism. This ideology rejects the notion of the organised Islamic theocracy, and that Islam itself is the politic, to be wielded by the people in the street, not the dudes in the robes. There are thus ways to split that relationship; ultimately they are uneasy bed fellows. Which is why Iran is raging about the assasination of a Hamas leader inside of Iran, but actually hasn't done anything. They don't actually care that much about Hamas. The role of Russia is even more complex. Now you will read about how how Russia i using hundreds of Iranian designed drones, initially drawn from Iranian stocks, but more lattery assembled inside of Russia (not clear if these are CKDs, or Russia is licence manufacturing them). But at the same time, most of the Russian designed drones are actually Israeli designed; Israeli companies are deeply embedded in the Russian defence industry. Russia has mostly used Israeli drones to prosecute its actions in Syria. In 2019, Israel signed an agreement with Russia not to supply Ukraine or Georgia with military hardware in return for Russia not doing the same with Iran. This is obviously now kaput. 15% of Israelis hold Russian citizenship, and among them there will be undoubtedly those who still hold a loyalty to Putin's Russia. 10% of the Russian population are Muslim, and they are suppressed. There is a Quisling administration in Chechenya, which holds extraordinary influence with Putin. Within the Ukrainian army are Chechen seperatists; with 30 years of conflict, I suspect many of these men will not hold moderate views. Now how does Iran view this situation in Russia, given its basing its position in the Islamic world as a combination of theocratic interpretation, and a constitutional document based, amazingly, on the US Constitution (well technically Khomeini brought with him when he returned from exile in 1979, a document based on the French constitution which itself was inspired by the US Constitution). It has to look the other way. These relationships are much more fickle than you suppose. Arabs hate Persians, and Persians despise the Arabs. This was at the root of things when Saddam Hussein attacked Iran, hoping to get one over. Britain promoted Zionism largely because of Imperial ambition and a need to remain relevant. The US, through Truman, supported the founding of Israel, largely because of Truman's Evangelical beliefs, where the existance of Israel is central to their pretty apocalyptic beliefs. Eisenhower evidently thought this was a load of nonsense, and blocked private shipments of munitions to the young Jewish state. Kennedy and Johnson were the ones who stepped up on the military and political aid to Israel

A reminder when most thought Palin had a screw loose. Halcyon days its seems now......

Or the guy isn't much of a politician.

Has Fatty ever used his tennis courts? And I note his pool isn't really a swimming pool. A spell in clink might actually do him some good. He can work out, lose a bit of weight.

Interestingly, the UK has links to Ukraine that go way back. Donetsk was founded in 1870, but it wasn't called Donetsk then. It was called Hugheskova, after the man who founded the city, John Hughes. Welsh migrants to the area established the Russian metallurgy industry. 70 years before Hughes, a Yorkshireman Charles Gascoigne founded what is now called Luhansk, setting up an iron foundary there. What he did there was make guns for Catherine the Great. Ironically, many of the captured Russian cannons on display around the UK, were made by Gascoigne. And it was a young Welsh journalist who brought to international attention the Holodomor. https://www.garethjones.org/

I'm a microbiologist of over 35 years standing (yikes, has it been that long). During that time, I worked developing ways to detect the worst pathogens known to man, and unknown to man. I was also a biological safety officer for a major Plc (in addition to being a senior researcher). These days I preach microbiology from an office. We started talking about this virus in early January 2020, and, as you do, speculate about its origins. 98% of the microbial world is completely unknown, The potential for new diseases is infinite. The world only starts picking up on them well into the infection's development. Many burn out, without making a single headline. Take MERS; this was another coronavirus, related to SARS, and related to Sars-Cov-2. It made the headlines around the world when some elderly Saudi was evacuated to London with a respiratory illness, and an Anglo-Dutch team identified the virus. MERS has an incredibly high mortality rate. But at least 6 months before this virus was identified, I was writing articles on the Amman cluster, where some doctors and ER nurse died following a short respiratory illness. It seemed significant to me at the time, and later on was confirmed to be MERS. MERs had the potential to cause a frightening pandemic, and for a few years, we were anxiously keeping an eye on the annual haj, and the potential for new cases. But they never happened. Its not gone away, there are still cases. His high mortality rate probably limits forward transmission, But MERS appeared following a change in human behaviour. All emerging infectious diseases follow the same path. Flu, an avian virus, impacted humans farming pigs 2000+ years ago. It was about the time when someone invented the pig sty, rather than taking the pigs out to forage. MERS emerged because of the wealth of the Gulf. It became commonly associated with elderly Arab men who kept a few camels. Saudi Arabia imports camels, due to rising demand for camel meat, camels for racing and for old men wishing to keep a few camels around after retiring from a prosperous job. The camels mostly come from the Canaries, Australia (the feral Afghan camels) and Sudan. The MERS virus was only found in Sudanese camels. The change in human behaviour was Saudi Arabia now being full of wealthy old men pining for something resembling the Bedu lifestyle in old age (ie the good old days). and all buying camels. The story of COVID-19, and its origins, will occupy entire lifetimes. We still do not know exactly where Spanish Flu came from, thought there is strong circumstantial evidence that it emerged in China in 1917 (newly discovered old Chinese medical records), about the time the British and French were recruiting coolies to serve on the Western Front, and these coolie battalions were then shipped via Canada and Kansas. What really caused this virus to take off, besides the unusual act of mostly young Chinese men being shipped off to France, was the end of WW1. There was a priority to evacuate men in the hospitals home. Other soldiers remained at their posts, allowing a virus to circulate among relatively fit men living in close proximity, leading to recombination events, and selection of a strain with heightened virulance. After 120+ years, we are getting closer. As for COVID-19, my working theory why this EID becames a pandemic so quickly was, again, due to a change in human behaviour, this time "Globalisation". Wuhan, by 2020, had become part of a global supply chain for the textiles and car parts industries, leading to particular traffic between Wuhan and Italy. The city's residents had become much more properous, and were enjoying a lifestyle far better than during their parents in the 1960s, when there was genuine hunger. Part of this means indulging in exotic meats. This prosperity attracted the attention of Western banks, who has invested heavily into the surrounding farming sector, pushing traditional farmers out onto lands not farmed before, increasing the chances of first contact with novel disease causing organisms. The increased farming activity has also driven up demand for fertiliser. The area is well known for bat guano deposits, that itinerant miners excavate. Let it be remembered that coronaviruses circulate among the bat community Bats has really slow immune systems, and these viruses don't really bother them. There are a number of scenarios for transmission. Wuhan is a prosperous city, with more more coming from the rural area. One reason is to bring in livestock for the wet market. There is more prospect of human to human contact, and livestock to human contact. Then you have all the international visitors. One cannot disregard the laboratory, but as a microbiologist with experience of the kinds of facilties involved, I find it incredibly unlikely. Some assume if it came from the lab, it must be some sort of engineered strain. well, maybe, probably not. The Wuhan Institute of Virology has a number of functions. One of which is to conduct research on novel pathogens. Around the world, in the major metropolises, you will find research institutes looking at some of the nastiest pathogens know. For instance, Colindale in London, is one of Health England's main reference labs, the other being the civvie lab at Porton Down. Where my lab was, was in one of the Home Counties close to London, and it was a private lab. The other function of the Wuhan lab was as a reference lab, meaning they received clinical samples coming from hospital labs for further investigation. Every city will have at least one hospital, and typically, that hospital will have a pathology laboratory, which will include a virology section. In those labs, the scientists are deliberately propagating viruses to identify them. That means producing millions up millions of viruses. And mostly this will be in fairly open bench BSL2 and BSL3 labs; the scientists aren't usually wearing breathing apparatus. Hazardous work can be conducted in open front laminar flow cabinets venting to atmosphere via a HEPA filter. So a lab origin might be from a BSL 4 research lab, a lab that was newly built by a French firm, and which was apparently in good corder, with a combination of physical and non-physical (ie training) controls in place. Another origin would be from the reference lab, which would be at a lower standard, but there are still controls in place. If reference labs didn't have controls for BSL-2 labs, then why aren't they the source of STDs in your city? But lab leaks do occur, when someone circumvents a control. The last smallpox death in the UK was in 1978, a forensic photographer in Birmingham. The photographer's office was below a lab looking at Smallpox. For many years it was thought poorly maintained ducting was to blame. But this has been ruled out. As a result of death, the head of the Birmingham Medical School microbiology department took his own life. He had been harassed by the Press and others, who accused him of genetically manipulating the Smallpox virus, utter nonsense. Where it emerged from; its still most likely a zoonitic infection. 60% of all human infections have crossed the species barrier