Cameroni

In a time of war you need control over your steel producers. It's no good to rely on Canadians, who have now shown they think nothing of targeting the electricity supply of American cities.

The situation is different now. Canadian investment is in a substantially worse shape now than it was then after being hit by a global pandemic, followed by an underperforming economy over the last two years. The U.S. accounts for over 90% of Canadian steel and aluminum exports. The renewal of the tariffs from 2018/19 would apply to roughly $24 billion of Canadian exports. You think Canada will just shrug that off?

No, the threat was not a direct Canadian invasion obviously, the threat was that Canadian steel caused American steel producers to fail, which would indeed have a direct impact on America's military.

Not preparing for a specific war, but he is considering the necessity to retain strong steel producers to maintain America's ability to build a strong a military. The US military is a crucial tool of US policy. Speak softly but carry a big stick as Teddy said. If US steel would wilt away, how could the US maintain its military glory? It couldn''t.

That was the justification used for the steel tariffs the first time around, national security. And of course if you want a strong military you do need strong steel producers. Trump can't afford US steel producers to fail because that would mean America's military nimbus would vanish.

Trump is not causing any chaos. The correction was overdue and everyone knew it. As for a 16 year recession, the chances of that are nil.

Well, I think we have seen a large bubble and you are right that there will be difficult times ahead. My horse is Forex trading, so I make money if the dollar goes up or if it goes down. A nice trend actually helps. Whatever the direction.

Yes, there are obvious problems the steel tariffs will cause. Cars will get more expensive. But this will be the case across the board. Part of the reason why the steel tariffs are necessary is because China has been dumping cheap steel everywhere around the gblobe, depressing prices. However, the US needs high prices for steel. And don't forget these tariffs will be bad for the US, but they will be mortal for the 25000 Canadian steel workers. They will kill Canadian steel right off. So Trump will eliminate a competitor, Canadian steel producers. However, it may be that the real reason that Trump wants strong US steel and aluminium producers, is that he wants to prepare the US for military purposes.

Four hours ago JP Morgan estimated the risk of recession in 2025 as less than 50%. They still predicted respectable growth. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/jp-morgan-economist-sees-40-us-recession-chance-risks-exorbitant-privilege-2025-03-12/ Look, the Cassandra analysis has been ongoing for the last 40 years. At some point it will come true, no doubt, but we're not at that place yet.

Ah, the Cassandra analysis. Well, I would be willing to put a wager that should there be a recession it will not last 16 years.

The big takeaway there is that economic orthodoxy is not necessarily that useful in a modern economy, and also that the benefit of tariffs depends on the context. i don't think it's dumb to put a tariff on steel or aluminium, in fact in the US context it makes a lot of sense. It will lead to US produced steel and aluminium on a greater scale. It will reduce subsidies on Canada. Not to mention bring in a lot of tariff money into the tax pot of the US.

Actually the US did exactly that in the past. How do you think they went to the moon?

You want to read this article: https://www.ft.com/content/61f289b7-a953-4067-a8a3-9bb1ba7f16da

It's hardly a secret that the market is in the largest bubble in history and was due for a correction. So far it is only dropped 12% from the recent all time high. in the 2008 crash it shed 65%. We have gone up OVER 100% since that time, which is incredible. If the market is down 4 trillion, what about the 50 trillion it's gone straight up since 2009? The market goes down, sure. It will go up again. Don't worry. If it crashes now, don't get out, buy like crazy at the bottom. You will make a fortune.

Yes, there are the odd diamonds and exceptions. It's certainly nice to hear these true positive accounts and of course very happy you found a good woman. But if you had not had the funds to buy her a house, retire in Thailand, how long do you think this woman would have stayed with you? Clearly she is of good character, from what you have said, but don't you think your resources and willingness to buy her a house contributed to her happiness, and thus to her staying with you?

I very much do. What cards do you think you hold ronnie?

That's a classic "...using hurty words to will Harry Potter Trump away"...lol...can I use that? Yah, I'm also enjoying the show of grown men talking nonsense, world will end, Trump is a Russian asset, Trump is going to destroy the US economy. They don't realize it says more about them than the future or the present, but you get to enjoy the freak show. Loving it too.

Lol, you have to give it to Donald, he's a loyal friend. He saw Tesla stock going down and is trying to help his buddy. Such a good friend, Trump.

Well, right now UJ is going up. It's hard to make a prediction here because UJ has gone up so MUCH, and therefore the Yen has fallen so much, that it has indeed corrected a bit recently. As you know the Dollar Index has gone down. But indications are the Dollar Index will go up. Then again the BOJ has indicated it will support the Yen. But right now UJ is going up again, so the downward trend for the Yen is indeed continuing. Technicaly analysis is extremely useful, but I also look at fundamental data to make trades. As for economists beliefs about the economy, it's like with scientists you put 10 in a room and you get 12 opinion, unless they started an investment fund and are trading profitably don't even bother to quote them. Their guess is as good as mine.

I'm serious. Even if it goes to plan and Ukraine and Russia sign a peace treaty it will not stop Europe rearming madly. If the past few years have shown us anything it is that European politicians are the most inept. Imagine them armed to the teeth on a collission course with Russia. Dangerous times ahead.

Exactly, Minsk 1 and 2. This one will succeed though, because Russia wants peace and Ukraine desperately needs peace.

If you build her a house it may work. And if you're lucky to get a woman of good character, it may work. A lot of "ifs".

The market high for the NASDAQ was on 19 February, not December.

This is a good point, the Ukrainians too have committed killings of civilians and atrocities in this war.

Indeed it could have been avoided and Ukraine and Russia were far down the road of negotiating a peaceful settlement when Boris Johnson flew in and threatened Zelensky with total lack of US and UK support if Ukraine signed the agreement, instead urging Zelensky "let's just fight". Starting a war is not a crime. The US did it against Panama, Iraq, it's just not. War is a legitimate tool of policy. War crimes are war crimes.