ArranP

Hello Nakhon Sawan citizens,

My wife is from Nakhon Sawan, we will be returning with our newborn daughter sometime next year.

I was wondering how does one find property/land in Nakhon Sawan, is there an estate agent or website where property/land for sale is listed?

I've looked a little bit but not found anything so far.

Thanks

Regards

Arran.

I dont want to rent a car in the airport, i want to rent it in Nakhon Sawan!

Just a logical suggestion as you're likely comin in there. It's only 3hr drive from airport.

This is a sensible suggestion. I have been to Nakhon Sawan city many times and have never seen a car rental outlet.

My wife is from Nakhon Sawan, when we return there we take a rental from BKK for about 1000 baht per day, she does not know of anywhere on NS to rent a car.

Easy for u who know, tell me, where is it? How far from bus station?

Nakhon Sawan Train Station is about 3km from centre of Nakhon Sawan (Big C). No busses run from train station to town center but you can take a truck cab (colour green) for about 10baht

Hi,

My wife is from Nakhon Sawan, we've just had a baby girl in the U.K and are looking to move out there next year sometime and am interested in looking at property/land in the area.

Please could you provide me with the contact details please.

Where do you go to find properties like these, I spent a little bit of time looking around on the internet for property/land in Nakhon Sawan, but so far only found the majority of websites selling properties in Chang Mai, Phuket, BKK, Hua Hin etc..

Regards

Arran.

I go long sterling from this month end onwards, I entered into dollar june last year at 1.96.

In the next 2 to 3 months I may or may not miss out on further strengthening of the dollar, but I think 6 to 12 months from now the dollar will be weaker against the pound than it is now.

Arran, Just curious as to why you would choose this point in time to take a long position in Sterling? Perhaps there is something that I can't see from my vantage point, but no matter how I look at the situation I see the BOE having more rate cuts down the line, unemployment increasing and the real estate crisis in the U.K. getting worse Is there some immenent economic recovery that you expect in the U.K. that no one else can see?

Hi Vic, thanks for your interest in my thinking.. I am no expert, only accumulated views from watching bloomberg, but here goes I lay my cards on the table...

Whilst there maybe some movement in USD/GBP toward dollar strength in the next 2 or 3 months, I think 6 to 12 months from now the dollar will have weakened against the pound. Possible trade points for me are at each month end. I moved into the dollar at 1.96 june 2007. My reasons for moving out of the dollar and into sterling are:

De-leveraging... banks cutting back on lending, forcing investors to liquidate equity/commodity positions and re-patriating money back to the dollar and yen has given rise to the majority of strength observed in the dollar and yen. This de-leveraging story, I think, has run the major part of its course.

Monetary policy... whilst most of the movement in USD/GBP was observed before BOE rate cuts took place, therefore I think attributable to the de-leveraging story noted above. However, some USD/GBP movement has been attributable to rate cuts. The BOE probably has another 1% to 1.5% of cuts ahead in the 1st QTR of 09, this may cause sterling to weaken further, but also the FED will probably cut another .5% to 1% so would possibly offset the affect from BOE cuts a little.

Macro... I think dire for the most part of 09 in both economies... I think negative UK reports will offset negative US reports and visa-versa....

Cash.... people/institions have flocked to cash, with interest rates nearing zero, there will be little to no returns and therefore increased incentive to sell positions in cash and seek returns elsewhere....

Bonds... I am not an expert here, but I think yields are dropping here too, as it seems bond traders are taking a dismal view of things to come.

This leaves equities and commodities.... both of these have come a long way in one direction already, I think investors will start to move positions from cash and bonds (as they offer little return) into equities sometime next year (maybe in qtr1 / qtr2).

- Equities, it seems, tend to be 6 months ahead of the macro.... if the maco were to stabalise/improve toward the end of 09, then equity investment would pick around summer 09.

- As equity rise, so the dollar weakens, and so does the yen. These currencies, due to there low yield, have been used as funding currencies...

Obama... has indicated he will give priority to getting the US economy back on track, and a lesser priority to the US deficit. I think this means he will print money, this would weaken the dollar also...

I do not try, nor can I do, timings of the exact bottom or tops in currency movement.... I can only come part of the way then switch currency to lock in those profits and wait for the reverse. I do not see this switching to be taking place every month, but probably every few years as one currency gains strength against another.

An alternative strategy would be to hold capital in two or three currencies and withdraw livings expenses from the strongest of them.

Aaron, I don't have the time now to comment on your entire post, but you definately have a view and put your money where your mouth is, so you have my respect for that. You do need to pay a little more attention to Bloomberg news in the future though, because the FED funds rate is 1% not 1.5%, and it has been there since October 29th! With that said I think the FED will get down to .5% later this month, however the BOE has at least 1.5% more of cuts coming. There is also more deleveraging yet to come, but most of this will likely occur in the first Q so 12 months from now the Pound might be higher than it is now but for the time being it has further to drop I fear. GLTY in your investments!

Thanks Vic, I think maybe the way I wrote the post, I meant to convey between .5% to 1% of further cuts, ie interest rate could go to between .5% and 0%.

I think the same, the pound can go lower and probably will, but I cannot time exactly when it will strengthen, but I can choose to lock in what profits I have by making the switch here and wait for when pound stengthens again....

I don't know about anyone else but I reckon that a pretty full and complete reply and certainly mirrors the way I feel about things also.

Second that. Arran, you are one smart kiddy!

Thanks MJP, many hours of watching bloomberg, which my missus has had to endure also :-) Proof is in the pudding, hopefully will help preserve my capital through 2009.

I don't know about anyone else but I reckon that a pretty full and complete reply and certainly mirrors the way I feel about things also.

Thanks ChiangMai.

I go long sterling from this month end onwards, I entered into dollar june last year at 1.96.

In the next 2 to 3 months I may or may not miss out on further strengthening of the dollar, but I think 6 to 12 months from now the dollar will be weaker against the pound than it is now.

Arran, Just curious as to why you would choose this point in time to take a long position in Sterling? Perhaps there is something that I can't see from my vantage point, but no matter how I look at the situation I see the BOE having more rate cuts down the line, unemployment increasing and the real estate crisis in the U.K. getting worse Is there some immenent economic recovery that you expect in the U.K. that no one else can see?

Hi Vic, thanks for your interest in my thinking.. I am no expert, only accumulated views from watching bloomberg, but here goes I lay my cards on the table...

Whilst there maybe some movement in USD/GBP toward dollar strength in the next 2 or 3 months, I think 6 to 12 months from now the dollar will have weakened against the pound. Possible trade points for me are at each month end. I moved into the dollar at 1.96 june 2007. My reasons for moving out of the dollar and into sterling are:

De-leveraging... banks cutting back on lending, forcing investors to liquidate equity/commodity positions and re-patriating money back to the dollar and yen has given rise to the majority of strength observed in the dollar and yen. This de-leveraging story, I think, has run the major part of its course.

Monetary policy... whilst most of the movement in USD/GBP was observed before BOE rate cuts took place, therefore I think attributable to the de-leveraging story noted above. However, some USD/GBP movement has been attributable to rate cuts. The BOE probably has another 1% to 1.5% of cuts ahead in the 1st QTR of 09, this may cause sterling to weaken further, but also the FED will probably cut another .5% to 1% so would possibly offset the affect from BOE cuts a little.

Macro... I think dire for the most part of 09 in both economies... I think negative UK reports will offset negative US reports and visa-versa....

Cash.... people/institions have flocked to cash, with interest rates nearing zero, there will be little to no returns and therefore increased incentive to sell positions in cash and seek returns elsewhere....

Bonds... I am not an expert here, but I think yields are dropping here too, as it seems bond traders are taking a dismal view of things to come.

This leaves equities and commodities.... both of these have come a long way in one direction already, I think investors will start to move positions from cash and bonds (as they offer little return) into equities sometime next year (maybe in qtr1 / qtr2).

- Equities, it seems, tend to be 6 months ahead of the macro.... if the maco were to stabalise/improve toward the end of 09, then equity investment would pick around summer 09.

- As equity rise, so the dollar weakens, and so does the yen. These currencies, due to there low yield, have been used as funding currencies...

Obama... has indicated he will give priority to getting the US economy back on track, and a lesser priority to the US deficit. I think this means he will print money, this would weaken the dollar also...

I do not try, nor can I do, timings of the exact bottom or tops in currency movement.... I can only come part of the way then switch currency to lock in those profits and wait for the reverse. I do not see this switching to be taking place every month, but probably every few years as one currency gains strength against another.

An alternative strategy would be to hold capital in two or three currencies and withdraw livings expenses from the strongest of them.

Listening to Bloomberg today, two different speakers put forward a new theme to me, one of them being Bob Parker of Credit Suisse Asset Management, that is:

As interest rates reach near zero, investors (including banks) will no longer be getting a return on cash, also with bonds giving little return, they will turn back to equities, funding these positions with cheap (close to 0% interest) money!

Correct me if I am wrong, typically as equities rise, the dollar will weaken, as SumNumNa can demonstrate in his charts showing the DJI correlation to the dollar.

I go long sterling from this month end onwards, I entered into dollar june last year at 1.96.

In the next 2 to 3 months I may or may not miss out on further strengthening of the dollar, but I think 6 to 12 months from now the dollar will be weaker against the pound than it is now.

Dollar weakening ahead.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/11/05...r-danger-ahead/

Everything is relative isn't it. The $USD Index has just completed week 38 of it's 40 week Hurst Cycle. It should have broken sharply into this timeframe. It hasn't. Curent price is the best indication of future price. If it drops 9% or more in the next 2 weeks I'd probably go along with this appraisal you've posted. If price holds up reasonably well in that timeframe I expect it to go to higher highs.

Normal logic would say we should see more USD technical strength off the back of the non-farm report for November (-533k). Equities should tank. More liquidation of USD denominated, but the market was up 3%!

I recently heard a friend say "A depression is when all bet's are off".

US stocks rally as Hartford leads financial shares after profit forecast. As stocks rose the Dollar weakened.

Also there was the US Jobs Report, not sure how much of the dollar decline is attributable to the Jobs Report and how much is attributable to the stock rally.

One thing to note, the stock market is allegedly about 6 months ahead of the economic.

Arran, the non-farm was one of the worst on record and that's with GM/Fird/Chrysler etc. This being the start!

Stocks are completely irrational now. Listen to the recent Hugh Hendry interview on Bloomberg. Go with what the bond market is saying.

Point is, in a rational market, investors would be liquidating US denominated assets off the back of the dire non-farm report, driving technical strength in USD.

All bet's are off.

Does this support the argument that the Dollar will weaken against the Pound ?

The macro in the UK is also likely to be not so good in 2009. If this is the case, can you see something else being the driver behind USD/GBP movement through 2009 ? Maybe the FED printing money/deflation ?

I thought it would be the end of the de-leveraging story and positions being re-established in global equities, causing out-flows from the Dollar, apparently there is a lot of cash on the side-lines waiting to buy into the markets at the right time.

Hugh mentions he believes the stratigists are wrong to think the bad news is already priced in.

Dollar weakening ahead.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/11/05...r-danger-ahead/

Everything is relative isn't it. The $USD Index has just completed week 38 of it's 40 week Hurst Cycle. It should have broken sharply into this timeframe. It hasn't. Curent price is the best indication of future price. If it drops 9% or more in the next 2 weeks I'd probably go along with this appraisal you've posted. If price holds up reasonably well in that timeframe I expect it to go to higher highs.

Normal logic would say we should see more USD technical strength off the back of the non-farm report for November (-533k). Equities should tank. More liquidation of USD denominated, but the market was up 3%!

I recently heard a friend say "A depression is when all bet's are off".

US stocks rally as Hartford leads financial shares after profit forecast. As stocks rose the Dollar weakened.

Also there was the US Jobs Report, not sure how much of the dollar decline is attributable to the Jobs Report and how much is attributable to the stock rally.

One thing to note, the stock market is allegedly about 6 months ahead of the economic.

Hello,

In the UK, I understand that each parent has 50% responsibility/custody of their child. In Thailand, however I understand that the mother has 100% custody of the child?

For a child born between Farang and Thai in UK the child is therefore 50% custody/responsibilty between both parents, when the family moves to Thailand does it remain 50% between both parents or does the child become 100% the mothers custody/responsibilty ?

Regards

Arran.

I give up.

UK cuts it's interest rates and Sterling falls in value.

Thailand cuts it's interest rate and the Bht gains in value.

Someone please help me understand!

From a FOREX mate,

Sterling's oversold unless the BOE go and make a monkey out of me and undercut their own gilts as well as their inflation targets is another way of looking at it.

'Course dumb people do dumb things and there's absolutely no stopping them. But I don't figure the MPC are that dumb, and if I had to take a call I'd figure that even 'though all the dumbness in the market at the moment has a greater volume than all the dumbness in the MPC, the MPC's dumbness still has more mass. I can count the stupidity in the MPC and feel its tug but I can see the dumbness in the market and it's big and hairy and scary and reminds me of something I can't quite place.

And there's a ferpectly simple 'splanation for this - people are punting on FX the way they once punted on the footy, junk bonds, dot coms, you know the drill. It's the new new and everybody who's anybody has got an angle and bait and a hook. Home team playing away says play GBP crosses (even though that's dumb) because even if you lose you understood why and if you happen win by accident instead everyone else gets it too (even after six pints or three bottles of Chardonnay for a tenner too many). Some folk aren't punting though, they win big and regular and talk places they shouldn't about what they did and why - then people see and blather a bit and want a piece and this is what sucks 'em right in.

And you know what that means - come the fourth, the market's going (I think anyway) to get sucked into the MPC's gravity-well of stupidity; Mohammed will move a little sure as baby camels get the hump (sometimes two) but the mountain's going to move far, far more.

Tears before bedtime, the dumb losers will get burnt and maybe double or quits, the dumb winners will double up anyway and sure as that camel the inside track (that's what it reminds me of) is the house'll win in the end.

CHFJPY is still a wonderous thing.

That's really interesting that he sees that because I sense the same thing also from talking to a range of people and from reading threads here on TV. All of a sudden the worlds population has become part time FOREX traders - not a bad thing in some respects I suppose because it means that people are becoming more aware - the downside of course is that part-time and ameateur traders can do both a lot of damage and lose a lot of money. On the former point, hoards of folks climbing on the shorting bandwagon compounds a problem that is already difficult to manage - e.g Citi Group, RBS, A&L and yes, Sterling!

The part time FOREX players are small timers and in the long run they will get burnt, however to think that Sterling is oversold and will bounce back anytime soon will also get you burnt. Sterling will not return until there is some catalyst to help it to make a comeback, the BOE rate cut tomorrow certainly will not be helping Sterling in the short run. Does Sterling remain at or near these levles for a couple of years? It is certainly a possibility, given the dire economic straights that the U.K. is facing

Most currency strategists on bloomberg are forcasting a recovery in sterling against the dollar next year from about march onwards.

I believe their reasoning behind this is not directly due to the marco or monetory policy of either U.S and U.K, but due movement of money caused by the de-leveraging story which they seem to attribute the major part of the USD/GBP movement seen upto last month (also seen in the JPY).

Moving forward the reversing of this ie. re-establishing positions in equities which necitates in part out-flows from the dollar (and JPY).

What are your thoughts on the effect of this de-leveraging and predicted out-flows from USD to re-establish equity positions next year ?

This morning a currency strategist on Bloomberg (a Mr Gallo if I remember correctly) , forecast the trough for the pound against the dollar during first qtr 2009, then 1.65 / 1.70 by end 2009.

Also forecast the Euro would weaken to 1.43 against the pound.

Its difficult to time the exact bottom for the pound, but is on the weak side currently. Therefore for me its about time to move dollar capital into the pound.

This capital I moved into the dollar when the pound was strong last june 2007 at 1.96.

I cannot time the tops and bottoms exactly but only work on the notion when it is strenthened move to weak and when its weakened move to strong.

Likewise, would look to move back again from pound to dollar when the dollar has weakened sufficiently...

I don't see this moving of capital on a daily or weekly basis but every 1, 2 or 3 years maybe more....

I just read the RBS forecast for exchange rates and historically they have been pretty close over the years - their latest report makes grim reading however. They see GBP/USD remaining in a range of between 1.48 and 1.53 for the next two years!

I don't know how useful this is but at least it's perhaps another indicator as to the future.

Barclays Capital have forecast above 1.40 near term, above 1.60 from 3 months onwards, 1.89 by 2009 end.

I remember another guy on Bloomberg quoted parity :-) Many different forecasts! But generally, after watching the many different forecasts, they seem to predict pound strength due to usd weakness.

I'm not sure how forecasts from Barclays Capital have faired in the past.

as i'm currently getting paid in £ sterling and having the possibilities to switch it to € would you do it?

Right now the £ has recovered quiet a lot with the € from 1.15 to 1.21 and may be the best moment to switch it, as the Euro looks more stable in the long run i guess.

What would you do it if you were in my position?

Cheers

EUR has come a long way in one direction, it is forecast to weaken against the pound, I've observed the following reasons given for this... Euro is a single currency but not a single country, ECB has cut interest rates the least so far.

Hi All.

You have got to hand it to Bingo.After much ridicule on his forcast for the SET, in the end he was 100% right, I hope he is wrong about Sterling, but I wont hold my breath.

phupaman

thank you, i only tell it like it is

the next stop for sterling is around US$1.36 per 1 British pound (it is $1.53 as of this post), if that does not hold (which it will not given the UK central bank will keep slashing rates) parity to the US $ will happen US$1 = 1 British pound that is not a misrpint, all hel_l is going to break loose as inflation in the UK will be devastating.......get ready, its coming

additionally, you have a death cross on the $/pound chart (50 DMA moving below 200DMA), needless to say the crushing of British pound will affect LOS tourism

The dollar strength seen over the last 2 months, do you see most of this attributed to BOE interest rate cuts? do you think the de-leveraging has played a major role in this ?

Moving forward at some point out-flows from the dollar and yen will increase as risk apetite improves.

The situation has escalated, but is not the root-cause the credibility of the election process?

Hi All.

You have got to hand it to Bingo.After much ridicule on his forcast for the SET, in the end he was 100% right, I hope he is wrong about Sterling, but I wont hold my breath.

phupaman

I'm no expert but I can comment on what I've been watching on Bloomberg as I've been watching alot over the last few months.

Currency strength has mostly been observed in USD and JPY recently, which has been a result of "money returning home"!

ie large hedge funds de-leveraging positions (due to banks reducing lending) and re-patriating the funds back to the dollar and carry traders selling positions (amongst others on oil) and returning the money back to the yen. Hence large in-flows of money back to the dollar and yen.

These are the reasons that have been given for the strengths of these two currencies.

The argument going forward is the reverse, at some point these currencies will start to be sold as positions are re-established in comodities and equities as risk-apetite returns. This means selling of the dollar and buying positions through other currencies, which will cause the dollar to weaken, the same goes for the yen.

Only with the yen, the Japanese government has an added interest to weaken the yen so their car companies Toyota and Honda can make profit on selling their electric hybrid pioneering vehcles to the states and europe.

As the dollar weakens this will in-turn push up again the price of oil as it becomes more attractive (due to the weak dollar) to invest in again, same goes for gold and other commodities, and again weaken the yen further because it is cheapest currency to borrow in and use to invest in commodities.

Apparently the turning point in the market is when risk apetite returns which is penciled in for end of first quarter next year .. when this happens we will then observe more baht for the pound!!

Is there an agency/entity in Thailand I can contact to get advice on whether to put my child through thai education or international education system, the advantages/dis-advantages of both routes, options for going onto universities in Thailand and/or Britiain when they're older.

I don't want to be making decisions now that may limit them in the future.

Been following Bloomberg alot on this £/$.

Between now and February/March direction downwards anywhere from here to 1.40.

After Feb/March, US Fiscal Stimulas takes affect, risk apetite returning in equities and commodities, back up above 1.60.

Whilst regardless of where your gf gives birth, the child will be entitled to both thai & british citizenship, but it does affect the citizenship of your grand-children!

If you give birth to your child in Thailand, your grand-children will not be entitled to british citizenship if born in Thailand, where-as if your child is born in the UK, then your grand-children will be entitled to both thai & british citizenhship regardless of where they are born.

If your child is born in the UK, you will be entitled to Family allowance, £250 when the child is born and approx £15.00 per week, every week until your child reaches 16. Good to put into a Child Trust Fund until the child reaches 16.

My wife and I recently had our child in U.K. and will return Thailand later, we are finding the experience very well. We did not make our decision to have our child in the UK for any of the above points.

There seems to be a positive point about putting them through a Thai education system, that the child will identify with the Thai culture and what it is to be Thai, where they may not get this from International schools?

I was reading some posts from grown up half Thai / half Fallang children, where they commented on how they liked that they had this exposure/knowledge to the Thai culture.

This is also a valuable point when considering the education for a child.