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Everything posted by TallGuyJohninBKK
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"Between 1959 and 2016, US life expectancy increased by almost 10 years, from 69.9 years in 1959 to 78.9 years in 2016, with the fastest increase (highest APC) occurring during 1969–1979 (APC=0.48, p < 0.01) (Figure 1). Life expectancy began to advance more slowly in the 1980s and plateaued in 2011 ... The NCHS reported that US life expectancy peaked (78.9 years) in 2014 and subsequently decreased significantly for three consecutive years, reaching 78.6 years in 2017.2,9 ... "By 2014, midlife mortality was increasing across all racial groups, caused by drug overdoses, alcohol abuse, suicides, and a diverse list of organ system diseases." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7146991/ And then COVID starting in 2020 dropped U.S. life expectancy rates off a cliff, as shown above. As the above quoted PBS report notes, the current U.S. life expectancy rate (even with the latest rebound for 2022) is back to what it was 20 years ago.
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Of course, Paxton was only acquitted by fellow Republican state Senators in Texas in an impeachment case that the state House members from both parties originally had brought against him. To convict him would have required a two-thirds Senate vote in the Republican-controlled state Senate, which didn't happen. All the other pending legal actions against Paxton remain. Kinda similar to how U.S. Senate Republicans, by blocking the required two-third majority votes, acquitted fellow Republican Donald Trump in his two impeachment proceedings. But what then ensued thereafter was the filing of 91 felony counts in four separate now-pending criminal cases. ----------------------------------------------- "Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton was impeached on May 27, becoming the state's first statewide official to be impeached since 1917." ... "The impeachment also underlines the conflict between Paxton and a number of other Republicans, many of whom voted in the state House for his impeachment." ...the House voted to impeach Paxton in a bipartisan 121-23 majority vote." https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/texas-ag-ken-paxton-impeached-controversy/story?id=99826087 Even a lot of his fellow Republican lawmakers in the Republican controlled House considered him guilty and wanted him out.
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Yup... from the full Wash Po report that went beyond the excerpt above: "The rise in certain chronic diseases in the United States — and slower progress in combating others — put the nation in a vulnerable position when the novel virus arrived. A scattered and politically polarized response to the pandemic played a role in the dire death toll that followed, as did resistance to vaccination and other public health measures. No other wealthy country experienced so high a rate of death per capita from covid." AND " In articles this year, The Washington Post has explored the many reasons this country lags peer nations in life expectancy, and a major finding is that chronic conditions such as heart disease, obesity, diabetes and cancer play an underappreciated role in suppressing life spans." https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2023/11/29/life-expectancy-2022-united-states/
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And for the Europhiles amongst us, the OP's entry on Portugal, in a separate listing, has the following add-on: "You can get a retirement visa with €760 in monthly retirement or pension income, which is equivalent to approximately $830. After five years, you can convert your residency for EU citizenship and enjoy easy travel across Europe." https://expatsi.com/communities/retirees/10-countries-where-you-can-retire-with-2000-month/
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Jing, I was intrigued by how many of the different location entries on their list have a phrase in the description similar to the following: "You can get a retirement visa in XXXXXXX if you have [$800 to $1,500+] /month in retirement income." If their info is accurate, I didn't realize there were so many countries with reasonably affordable retirement visas... Such as: --Bulgaria if you have about $800/month in retirement income. --Portugal if you have about $800/month in retirement income. --Costa Rica if you have $1,000/month in retirement income. --Panama if you have $1,000/month in retirement income --Indonesia if you have about $1,500/month in retirement income.
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Rise in U.S. life expectancy is ‘good news,’ but gains aren’t enough to wipe out COVID losses "Life expectancy in the United States rose in 2022, the first increase since the COVID pandemic began, according to new federal data. But those gains were not enough to compensate for the years of life lost to the virus, which remains one of the nation’s top causes of death. ... But COVID is still the fourth leading cause of death in the U.S., Arias said. And these gains weren’t enough to overcome the backslide in life expectancy – 2.4 years — since 2020 and the start of the pandemic. These latest estimates offer a stark reminder of how much further the nation must go to recover from that crater of loss: Life expectancy is now “what it was 20 years ago,” Arias said." (more) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/rise-in-u-s-life-expectancy-is-good-news-but-gains-arent-enough-to-wipe-out-covid-losses
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Per the Washington Post: "Newly published data on life expectancy in the United States shows a partial rebound from the worst phase of the coronavirus pandemic, but drug overdoses, homicides and chronic illnesses such as heart disease continue to drive a long-term mortality crisis that has made this country an outlier in longevity among wealthy nations. Life expectancy in 2022 rose more than a full year, to 77.5 years, in data released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. More than four-fifths of this positive jump was attributable to a drop in COVID-19 deaths. ... In 2019, U.S. life expectancy at birth stood at 78.8 years. That figure cratered to 76.4 in 2021, the lowest since 1996. That was due partly to the extraordinary wave of COVID deaths in January and February of that year as the United States had only begun to roll out vaccines." (more) https://www.unmc.edu/healthsecurity/transmission/2023/11/29/new-cdc-life-expectancy-data-shows-painfully-slow-rebound-from-covid/
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Can someone explain the Myanmar politics to me?
TallGuyJohninBKK replied to georgegeorgia's topic in ASEAN NOW Community Pub
The one other part to be clear about, from everything I've read on the subject, is that the current main armed groups fighting against the junta primarily aren't common idealist locals seeking to restore democracy, but instead, are rival ethnic militia groups that supposedly are heavily into protecting their interests in drug running, gambling, financial and cyber scams and other bad stuff. "Beijing has not changed the nature of its relationship with the ethnic armed organizations in the north, and these are not turning against China. ... To achieve those goals, China has always played all sides in Myanmar’s internal conflicts and it is therefore not, it should be remembered, in China’s interest to see the emergence of a strong, peaceful, democratic and federal Myanmar." ... "This time the rough and tumble has been caused not by drugs but by telecom fraud that is being carried out in areas controlled by ethnic armed organizations across the border in Myanmar. ... The main targets for the scams have been people and institutions in China, and Chinese officials believe that capital outflows as a result of the scams amount to at least US$40 billion. It was clear that the Chinese authorities had to take action. And they did." https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/guest-column/has-china-lost-control-of-ethnic-armies-in-myanmars-war-torn-borderland.html -
Just because the NYT has a different tally/ranking than the CDC doesn't mean the CDC tally is wrong... And in fact, it's just the opposite. The CDC data is more up-to-date, more accurate, and they are the official record keeper of such things for the U.S. Specifically, for starters, as the NYT webpage clearly shows but your post failed to make clear, they stopped updating their state info in March 2023, whereas the CDC data has continued to be updated thru current time, meaning the NYT data you posted is incomplete and eight months out-of-date: And indeed, if you dig into the data, the CDC thus not surprisingly has HIGHER/LARGER COVID death count totals for the U.S. overall and Texas individually than the numbers used by the NYT, as follows: From the CDC spreadsheet file supporting their COVID deaths state rankings: versus the NYT tally for Texas: Thus, the CDC is counting 8,696 additional COVID deaths for Texas that the NYT isn't counting -- the difference between the CDC Texas number of 103,214 and the out-of-date NYT number of 94,518. Just as the CDC's cumulative COVID deaths tally for the U.S. is 1,156,484 versus the 1,135,343 tally reported by the NYT, meaning the NYT once again has an undercount of 21,141 COVID deaths nationally. In short, the CDC data is a more complete, accurate and up-to-date counting than that from the NYT... not to mention, it's also the CDC and the related National Center for Health Statistics that keep the official records of such things for the U.S. ------------------------------------- Then, as for the differences in where the two sources list Texas in the rankings of per capita COVID deaths, apart from the NYT data being eight months out of date, the following may be another factor in that particular variation. As clearly listed in my original report above of the CDC rankings and data on per capita COVID deaths by state, those rates are AGE ADJUSTED, allowing more meaningful state to state comparisons. And that is the standard and preferred method of making such comparisons. From all indications, the NYT is just using raw data and not adjusting for age differences between the different state populations. The CDC is, as the headline of their chart clearly shows: Provisional COVID-19 Death Rate per 100,000 Population (Age-Adjusted) Reported to the CDC, by State/Territory – United States From the CDC: Death Data "Rates were age-adjusted to the 2000 standard population using the direct method (see https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr70/nvsr70-08-508.pdf)." And using age adjusted data is the standard means of making such comparisons across different geographic areas such as states, as the CDC explains below: "Age-adjusted death rates also are better indicators of relative risk when comparing mortality across geographic areas or between sex or race subgroups of the population that have different age distributions." https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr70/nvsr70-08-508.pdf And from elsewhere on that point from other sources: Age-adjusted Rates "Age adjusting rates allows fairer comparisons to be made between groups with different age distributions... The age-adjusted rates are rates that would have existed if the population under study had the same age distribution as the "standard" population. Therefore, they are summary measures adjusted for differences in age distributions." https://health.mo.gov/data/documentation/crude-aarate.php --------------------------- What is age-adjustment? "Age-adjustment is a statistical process applied to rates of disease, death, injuries or other health outcomes which allows communities with different age structures to be compared. Why do we do age-adjustment? "Almost all diseases or health outcomes occur at different rates in different age groups. Most chronic diseases, including most cancers, occur more often among older people.... Age-adjustment is a statistical way to remove confounding caused by age." https://www.health.ny.gov/diseases/chronic/ageadj.htm
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Chiang Mai AQI Is Already Over 100
TallGuyJohninBKK replied to koolkarl's topic in Air Pollution in Thailand
The air quality levels in the CM region aren't so bad right now... just at the lower end of the 'unhealthy for sensitive groups range" colored orange (100+ AQI) ...but were a lot worse and in the red / unhealthy range (150+ AQI) last night and earlier today. https://aqicn.org/station/thailand-chiang-mai-อาคารกิจกรรมนักศึกษา-อมช.-มช.-ต.สุเทพ-อ.เมือง-จ.เชียงใหม่/#/z/13 Just wait till the seasonal burning gets going in full swing.... -
Can someone explain the Myanmar politics to me?
TallGuyJohninBKK replied to georgegeorgia's topic in ASEAN NOW Community Pub
Interesting how the political history of Myanmar as laid out above somewhat resembles that of Thailand -- long-time military rule, relatively brief turns into local forms of democracy, and then more military coups and back into junta rule. Basically, Myanmar is in the midst of an ongoing civil war, with the government junta being opposed by a range of armed factions with their own interests. The ordinary citizens I believe generally favor democracy, but thru the years, many have been arrested, imprisoned and otherwise persecuted. The general consensus seems to be that the current ruling junta likely isn't going to last much longer. But what's going to follow their exit seems pretty unclear, and China seems to be playing a considerable role there as well. And it's not like China is any kind of protector and advocate of democratic governance. BTW, one of the most striking things there that's easily visible is how the current junta there can't even keep the lights on in big cities such as Yangon, forcing many businesses to rely on generators to be able to stay in operation. Blackouts Lengthen in Yangon as Power Crisis Worsens in Myanmar October 2, 2023 "Power outages in Myanmar’s commercial capital Yangon, including in its once thriving industrial zones, are worsening, with residents and business owners saying the length of blackouts has at least doubled since mid-August. Blackouts are normally rare in the rainy season, usually from June to October, when hydropower dams fill and electricity production increases. Forty percent of Myanmar’s electricity is generated by hydropower. ... In Yangon, the duration of planned electricity cuts varies from one township to another. However, on average, electricity cuts have doubled in duration from four hours a day in residential areas to a minimum of eight hours a day. Blackouts in some neighborhoods are much longer, residents say." https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/blackouts-lengthen-in-yangon-as-power-crisis-worsens-in-myanmar.html -
And just to give some voice to Paxton's accused: "In a statement, Pfizer said its representations about its vaccine have been "accurate and science-based," and that it believed Paxton's lawsuit had no merit. Pfizer also said its vaccine has "demonstrated a favorable safety profile in all age groups, and helped protect against severe COVID-19 outcomes, including hospitalization and death." Infectious disease experts have said relative risk reduction is a more meaningful way to judge a vaccine's efficacy than absolute risk reduction. Relative risk shows how well a vaccine protects recipients relative to a study's control group." https://www.reuters.com/legal/pfizer-is-sued-by-texas-over-covid-19-vaccine-claims-2023-11-30/ AND "A Pfizer spokesperson told Forbes “the company believes that the state’s case has no merit and will respond to the petition in court in due course.” Contra The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that the vaccine effectiveness at reducing symptomatic cases was around 92.4%, and around 94.3% for preventing hospitalization, according to a 2021 assessment. Efficacy did drop from the original 95% figure given by Pfizer, but largely after more variants of Covid that the vaccine wasn’t created to protect against began to circulate. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have continued to recommend Pfizer’s vaccine and call it effective, and the World Health Organization has said Pfzier’s vaccine has “very high efficacy against severe disease and moderate efficacy against symptomatic” cases." https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2023/11/30/texas-ag-sues-pfizer-over-covid-vaccine-effectiveness/?sh=6db52ea514fb
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The Republican elected officials in Texas (Paxton included) should be proud of themselves.... They've succeeded admirably in helping Texas have one of the highest per capita COVID death rates (top 10) among all states since the start of the pandemic... While at the same time, leaving Texas with among the lowest rates of COVID vaccination with the new monovalent COVID vaccines. Per the U.S. CDC: Provisional COVID-19 Death Rate per 100,000 Population (Age-Adjusted) Reported to the CDC, by State/Territory – United States "This shows the number of deaths since January 1, 2020 for every 100,000 people, allowing for comparisons between areas with different population sizes and age distributions." The chart excerpt below shows states ranked from highest to lowest for per capita COVID deaths, with the graphic showing just the top end of the full chart listing 50 states. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#maps_deaths-rate-total And regarding vaccination rates with the newest COVID vaccine, compared to the latest nationwide rate for adults of 15.7%: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/imz-managers/coverage/covidvaxview/interactive/adult-coverage-vaccination.html Compared to other states from the same source above: TOP: Vermont -- 33.2% Dist of Columbia -- 30.1% Minnesota -- 26.8% Massachusetts -- 26.7% Colorado -- 23.1% BOTTOM: Mississippi - 5.4% Louisiana -- 8.2% Florida -- 8.3% Alabama -- 10% West Virginia -- 10.4% https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/imz-managers/coverage/covidvaxview/interactive/adult-coverage-vaccination.html
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Texas and Florida... leading the political right-wing anti-vax movement in the U.S.: How lawmakers in Texas and Florida undermine Covid vaccination efforts State legislatures and politicians are pressuring public health officials to keep quiet about Covid vaccines. Nov. 7, 2023 ... "A rule added to Texas’ budget that went into effect Sept. 1 forbids health departments and other organizations funded by the state government to advertise, recommend, or even list covid vaccines alone. “Clinics may inform patients that COVID-19 vaccinations are available,” the rule allows, “if it is not being singled out from other vaccines.” ... As in Florida, the Texas health department initially promoted Covid vaccines, warning that Texans who weren’t vaccinated were about 20 times as likely to suffer a Covid-associated death. Such sentiments faded last year, as state leaders passed policies to block vaccine mandates and other public health measures. The latest is a prohibition against the use of government funds to promote Covid vaccines." https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/lawmakers-texas-florida-undermine-covid-vaccination-efforts-rcna123866
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Well, I guess they'll have to go up against findings like these: Two Years of U.S. COVID-19 Vaccines Have Prevented Millions of Hospitalizations and Deaths "From December 2020 through November 2022, we estimate that the COVID-19 vaccination program in the U.S. prevented more than 18.5 million additional hospitalizations and 3.2 million additional deaths. Without vaccination, there would have been nearly 120 million more COVID-19 infections. The vaccination program also saved the U.S. $1.15 trillion (Credible Interval: $1.10 trillion–$1.19 trillion) (data not shown) in medical costs that would otherwise have been incurred." https://www.commonwealthfund.org/blog/2022/two-years-covid-vaccines-prevented-millions-deaths-hospitalizations And this: COVID vaccines saved 20M lives in 1st year, scientists say June 24, 2022 "Nearly 20 million lives [worldwide] were saved by COVID-19 vaccines during their first year, but even more deaths could have been prevented if international targets for the shots had been reached, researchers reported Thursday. ... The researchers used data from 185 countries to estimate that vaccines prevented 4.2 million COVID-19 deaths in India, 1.9 million in the United States, 1 million in Brazil, 631,000 in France and 507,000 in the United Kingdom. An additional 600,000 deaths would have been prevented if the World Health Organization target of 40% vaccination coverage by the end of 2021 had been met, according to the study published Thursday in the journal Lancet Infectious Diseases." https://apnews.com/article/covid-science-health-england-54d29ae3af5c700f15d704c14ee224b5
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A dedicated public servant ( ), let off the hook (for now) by his fellow Republican elected officials... Republican Texas AG Ken Paxton is acquitted of corruption charges at historic impeachment trial September 17, 2023 "AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton was fully acquitted Saturday of corruption charges in a historic impeachment trial, a resounding verdict that reaffirms the power of the GOP’s hard right and puts an indicted incumbent who remains under FBI investigation back into office. The outcome demonstrated Paxton’s lasting durability in America’s biggest red state after years of criminal charges and scandal. ... The outcome far from ends Paxton’s troubles. He still faces trial on felony securities fraud charges, remains under a separate FBI investigation and is in jeopardy of losing his ability to practice law in Texas because of his baseless attempts to overturn the 2020 election." https://apnews.com/article/ken-paxton-impeachment-texas-871fb9c57b38fbda5bec5c2e5f280755
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Apparently, other that posting the one chart above, you didn't bother to read what the report actually says about the data you posted: "COVID-19 vaccines are very effective in preventing the severe impacts of infections with the virus. Over 95 per cent of people aged 16 and over in NSW have received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, while more than 70 per cent of people eligible for their third dose have received it. With such high vaccination coverage in the community, a high proportion of people admitted to hospital or intensive care unit (ICU) with COVID-19 are now vaccinated with two or three doses. However, people who are not vaccinated remain more likely to suffer severe COVID-19. Note that some people with COVID-19 who are admitted to hospital or ICU are admitted for conditions unrelated to their COVID-19 infection, and these admissions will not be prevented by vaccination." There have been numerous reports and studies throughout the pandemic that have showed the COVID death rates of the unvaccinated have been multiple times higher than the COVID death rates of the vaccinated. For example, from Feb. 2023 per the U.S. CDC: The chart you posted above does nothing to change that, since it isn't comparing the COVID death rates of a vaccinated population group vs an unvaccinated population group.
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From the above CDC website, as of mid-Nov., also has the new monovalent COVID vaccination rates by state/district. From my perusing the list, the following appear to be the top and bottom vaccination rate states among all adults: TOP: Vermont -- 33.2% Dist of Columbia -- 30.1% Minnesota -- 26.8% Massachusetts -- 26.7% Colorado -- 23.1% BOTTOM: Mississippi - 5.4% Louisiana -- 8.2% Florida -- 8.3% Alabama -- 10% West Virginia -- 10.4% https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/imz-managers/coverage/covidvaxview/interactive/adult-coverage-vaccination.html
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From the U.S. CDC: COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake and CDC’s Commitment to Vaccine Equity November 22, 2023, 9:00 AM EDT "COVID-19 is still an important cause of hospitalization and death, especially for older adults and people with certain underlying medical conditions. COVID-19 vaccines don’t prevent every infection – that’s true of lots of vaccines – but they can reduce illness severity in people who get vaccinated but still get sick, helping to save lives, reduce hospitalizations, and prevent trips to the doctor." https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/vaccine-equity.html U.S. Vaccination Rate Estimates for New Monovalent COVID Vaccines: "As of November 18, 2023, 15.7% (95% Confidence Interval: 14.9%-16.5%) of adults reported having received an updated 2023-24 COVID-19 vaccine since September 14, 2023." "Vaccination coverage increased by age and was highest among adults 75 years and older [34.2%, (30.4%-38.1%)]." "As of November 18, 2023, 6.3% (95% Confidence Interval: 5.3%-7.4%) of children were reported to be up to date with the 2023-24 COVID-19 vaccine." https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/imz-managers/coverage/covidvaxview/interactive/vaccination-dashboard.html On the following website, the CDC also has charts that break down the vaccination rates by varying groups and geographies, including: --a 33.4% vaccination rate for all adults age 65 and older. --a 17% rate for adults age 50 to 64 --a 10.9% rate for adults age 40 to 49 --a 10.8% rate for adults age 30 to 39, and --a 4.5% rate for adults age 18 to 29 https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/imz-managers/coverage/covidvaxview/interactive/adult-coverage-vaccination.html