TallGuyJohninBKK

In reading the pre-print analysis that the above Nature article is based on, the Nature article appears to be somewhat underselling what the Australian analysis actually says about the new 2nd generation vaccines.... The Australian analysis found a 1.5 times increase in neutralizing titres in the new vaccines vs the old vaccines against the newer virus variants. "Considering only neutralisation of SARS-CoV-2 variant strains, we found that variant-modified vaccines on average produced 1.51-fold higher titres than the equivalent ancestral-based vaccine." In other words, they found the original vaccines post injection resulted in an 11 fold increase in neutralizing titres, vs a 16.6 fold increase with the newer vaccines. "Synthesis of the currently available data suggest that variant-modified booster vaccination can provide significantly higher (1.5-fold) neutralisation titres to a diversity of current and historic SARS-CoV-2 variants compared to ancestral-based boosters. This is predicted to provide up to a maximum of a 9.7 percentage increase in protection [against symptomatic infection] (dependent on the pre-boost level of population protection)." In short, they're saying that the advantage of the newer vaccines over the original ones in preventing symptomatic infection or serious COVID disease is greater in populations with less pre-existing immunity from prior infections or vaccinations, and less in populations with greater pre-existing immunity. In one example they gave, they said if the newer boosters were used in a population with 50% pre-existing immunity, the overall protection against symptomatic infection would rise to 90.2% with the new vaccines vs. 85.6% with the original vaccines.

I haven't seen peepers about when and how (government provided free or only paid via privates) the new Omicron focused vaccines are likely to be available in Thailand... Been watching...waiting. I have seen several large private hospitals in BKK lately advertising reduced price promotions on the original Moderna vaccine. Dunno if that's because their stocks are heading toward their expiration dates and/or because they're preparing for the next round with the newer vaccines.

Brian, as far as I can recall, most of the research I've read on this subject has found that yes, they can identify elements of the virus surviving on surfaces for varying periods of time... BUT... typically, what they find on surfaces doesn't end up being something that can be cultured into a replicating virus. Have you seen anything newer or recent on that? While I'm all in favor of being cautious, I do think the surfaces risk has been overblown, particularly in Thailand. And I can't think of any documented case I've read about where typical public surface-to-hand contamination resulted in COVID infections...

But the other poster also was correct in the reports he posted about Sweden having a very high death rate during the earlier parts of the pandemic. A year and a half after Sweden decided not to lock down, its COVID-19 death rate is up to 10 times higher than its neighbors Aug 21, 2021, 6:55 PM ... "Sweden has also recorded around 145 COVID-19 deaths for every 100,000 people — around three times more than Denmark, eight times more than Finland, and nearly 10 times more than Norway. Had Sweden implemented tighter rules, experts told Insider, the country might have seen a COVID-19 death toll more similar to those Nordic neighbors." https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-covid-no-lockdown-strategy-failed-higher-death-rate-2021-8

From the Public Health Agency of Sweden: COVID-19 vaccination for children aged 12–15 "Vaccinations against COVID-19 are in progress in Sweden and within the EU. In Sweden, everyone aged 12 and over is offered vaccination against COVID-19." Children from 12 years of age are offered vaccination against COVID-19 Vaccination is offered to all children from 12 years of age since COVID-19 can cause serious illness also in children. The vaccine used in Sweden, Comirnaty, is approved for use from 12 years of age. It provides a high level of protection against serious illness." https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/communicable-disease-control/covid-19/vaccination-against-covid-19/children-and-adolescents--information-about-vaccination-against-covid-19/

Your quote from that study was cherry picking and misleading, since among other things, the study found that N95 respirator masks do an excellent job at preventing viral escape from the wearing person who coughs or sneezes, according to their findings -- EP referring to "escape percentage": And then what the study's actual conclusions are include the following first summary finding: "Without a face mask, it is almost certain that many foreign droplets will transfer to the susceptible person. Wearing a mask will offer substantial, but not complete, protection to a susceptible person by decreasing the number of foreign airborne sneeze and cough droplets that would otherwise enter the person without the mask." And then their second summary conclusion is another endorsement for N95 respirator wear as well as practicing social distancing: "Consideration must be given to minimize or avoid close face-to-face or frontal human interactions, if possible. If the relevant social distancing guidelines are compromised, the study shows that foreign airborne sneeze and cough droplets could pass through all the masks tested (except for the N-95 mask) even when assuming a 100% snug fit." [emphasis added] And then their final conclusion point: "This study, which can be treated as precautionary, provides quantitative support to the guidelines proposed by the medical research community that wearing a mask and avoiding close face-to-face or frontal interactions as much as possible will help in preventing the transmission and spreading of virus particles, such as COVID-19, through sneezes and coughs." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7757609/ It's also worth noting the findings and conclusions of the above study were based on the scenario of two people standing face to face within 6 feet or less of each other with one sneezing or coughing -- not just general social circulating.

Slated for October, I believe, if nothing else changes in the meantime.

The original COVID vaccines were very effective at preventing transmission of the original version of the coronavirus, as advertised.... Then in latter months, the virus mutated to different forms... The latter versions of the virus were able to escape the transmission protections of the vaccines to a larger extent. But the vaccines still even today significantly protect against serious illness and death from COVID. From my perspective, it's better to largely prevent having serious illness from COVID in the first place via easily obtainable and free COVID vaccines vs. having to pay for the various imported anti-virals that have more limitations, more drug interaction concerns, and not any greater effectiveness than vaccines. The antivirals are best being used as a treatment in the instances of so-called breakthrough COVID infections in the already vaccinated, and not as a substitute or replacement for COVID vaccines. New COVID Antivirals Do Not Replace the Need to Vaccinate ... "The most valuable asset we have in the fight against COVID-19 is still unequivocally vaccination, and the presence of effective drugs doesn’t change that." "COVID antivirals, like monoclonal antibodies before them, are not a substitute for vaccinations. They are a complement to vaccines, and they serve an important function." https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-covid-antivirals-do-not-replace-the-need-to-vaccinate/

Favipiravir is approved for use and used in Thailand with COVID patients. However, it's NOT approved as a COVID treatment in most other major countries in the world, including the U.S. and the UK.... And the scientific evidence of its actual effectiveness is lacking. What it is, though, is a relatively cheap drug that Thailand acquired the rights to produce domestically without having to buy from foreign drug companies. AND

Just a last update from me on this... This morning, two days after getting the notification email from the US Embassy here, I got my EMS envelope delivered at home in BKK containing my new passport, new passport card and letter for TH Immigration -- all in the same lightly sealed paper envelope. The EMS courier did get a signature from a neighbor downstairs (not me) after calling me to inform he was dropping off the envelope. So from my original application package arriving at the U.S. Embassy in BKK on Aug. 16 until today's passport delivery, the entire process took 18 calendar days in my case. Small note - because I ordered both a new passport book AND a passport card, they required me to make two 100 baht advance payments as part of the application process to cover two return mailing envelopes -- supposedly one each for the passport book and passport card, which the application materials said might be mailed separately. But in my case, the book and the card arrived together in the same single envelope, which also included the second EMS postage stamped but otherwise empty return envelope inside. No refund for the unused 100 baht fee for the second, unused envelope.

I haven't heard anything lately about public vaccinations at Bang Rak... But the Bang Sue Central Vaccination Center was slated to continue operating thru the end of September. "The Bang Sue Grand Station's Central Vaccination Center (CVC) has announced it will continue to provide vaccination services until the end of September. According to CVC director Dr. Mingkwan Wichaidit, the center was originally scheduled to close at the end of August. However, public health officials decided to postpone its closure to continue providing services as people still come in for vaccinations and booster shots. ... He stated that the closure date could be changed again depending on the circumstances and that the CVC could be reopened for service immediately if necessary." https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/posts/pfbid02HmQxyX9a3wNKDh4F1NN9B4YP2efhk9dLEBqF6hE1ME9r3v1exDB6KMnL29ubegPfl

The stated aim of the public health community is to hopefully get future COVID vaccine shots to be on an annual basis, if needed. It's exactly a valid comparison.

We're kind of beating a dead horse here, at this point, on Thailand's well-known conversion back in June from mandatory face mask wear to advisory face mask wear in certain situations. The advisory part still applies today and on an ongoing basis: "Although mask wearing is voluntary, the Ministry of Public Health recommends that people consider the benefits of wearing them, which can reduce the risks of contracting COVID-19 or other respiratory diseases when they are in a crowded venue, where air circulation is poor or where social distancing is not possible." https://www.thaipbsworld.com/wearing-face-masks-is-now-voluntary-in-thailand/ And further from the MoPH as of July 19: "Dr Taweesilp acknowledged that masking is now voluntary outdoors, but added that they are still recommended to prevent infections and also help prevent other respiratory tract diseases. He encouraged people to wear masks at all times when crowds are present and distancing is not possible, even when outdoors. The CCSA also requested that people keep their masks on when inside poorly ventilated spaces. This especially applies to members of the ‘608’ group who face a heightened risk of developing severe COVID symptoms, those who have not received their booster vaccine, people who contract COVID-19 and those who come in close contact with patients." https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/posts/pfbid0t8pxDGs6rXXZAn6vHKRnVxKDFPfuLM9WmwgfbPsh3SCrthcvdbsNgdEhLoPpsoS4l

Because there's a greater reduction in risk of contracting the virus when BOTH people are wearing high quality masks vs. when only one of the two are and the other is unmasked.

To somewhat reduce your risk of contracting the virus... And to greatly reduce the risk that the virus will end up killing you or putting you in the hospital. That sounds like pretty sound medical advice to me.

Just passed 1 million new global COVID deaths for 2022. Yes, for those unfortunate folks, it IS over.

There's a difference between the issue of whether face mask wear policies reduce the levels of COVID transmission in society at large VS whether face make wear reduces the risk of transmission among those actually wearing the masks... The Reuters fact check article above provides clear evidence that face mask wear reduces the COVID risks for those people who actually wear the masks. And accordingly, the headline of the NYT article you linked to is: Why Masks Work, but Mandates Haven't "Masks reduce the spread of the Covid virus by preventing virus particles from traveling from one person’s nose or mouth into the air and infecting another person. Laboratory studies have repeatedly demonstrated the effect." But... "The main explanation seems to be that the exceptions often end up mattering more than the rule. The Covid virus is so contagious that it can spread during brief times when people take off their masks, even when a mandate is in place."

Unfortunately, the Thai MoPH, AFAICT, didn't specify in their public info the number of vaccinated folks tracked in their May to July sample, nor did they say how long they were tracked for post vaccination.... But, a large scale study out of Singapore has done exactly that, with very good vaccine effectiveness findings for mRNA COVID booster shots in preventing serious COVID illness for at least six months post injection. And that's great news! Booster Shots Protect Against Severe Covid for at Least Six Months, Study Finds "The mRNA booster vaccines -- made by drugmakers Pfizer Inc. and BionTech SE, or Moderna Inc. -- were most effective in cutting the rate of people with severe Covid, scoring an estimated 87%, and there was no evidence of their effect waning within six months, the study found." ... The study was led by researchers at Singapore’s National Center for Infectious Diseases and the National University of Singapore. It canvassed 2.4 million Singaporean residents aged 30 years and above vaccinated with at least two doses." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-26/boosters-protect-against-severe-covid-for-six-months-study-says Not too different from the more vaguely reported Thai data -- 83% effectiveness against serious COVID after three shots.

You have heard about the notion of annual flu vaccine shots, right? It's not exactly a foreign concept... But whether that will ultimately become necessary/advised for COVID in the future remains a bit unknown right now, AFAIK.

Re the couple of prior posts: "COVID-19 accounted for one in eight US deaths from March 2020 to October 2021 and was the third leading cause of death, estimates a study published yesterday in JAMA Internal Medicine. ... Over the entire study period, the leading causes of death were heart disease (20.1%), cancer (17.5%), COVID-19 (12.2%), accidents (6.2%), and stroke (4.7%)." ... "Relative to 2020, in 2021, COVID-19 rose from the fifth (6,100 deaths) to the second (13,000) leading cause of death among people 35 to 44 years old and took the fourth-leading spot among those 25 to 34 years (5,000) and 15 to 24 (1,100). https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/07/1-8-us-deaths-during-pandemic-ascribed-covid-19

I'm all for people being "healthy". But that aside, it matters A LOT when people try to use the "healthy lifestyle" argument as the basis for opposing COVID vaccinations or suggesting they're not needed if you're "healthy." There's no credible science that supports that notion. As for the rest of your post, it's nonsense. All the major public health agencies have been publicly and loudly saying since the beginning of COVID that people with various chronic conditions are at greater risk of poor outcomes if infected with COVID. Pretty much everyone knows that, and not many folks arguing on that point. But it's been discussed A LOT!

I regularly ride the BTS in Bangkok, and in my recent trips, almost everyone I see on BTS (the vast majority) are wearing face masks for COVID, including myself. I dunno about the "evil eye" part for those choosing to ignore the BTS system's advice to wear face masks while traveling onboard.... But I suspect most folks in close quarters there, including myself, would give a wide-berth to non-maskers in this continuing time of COVID. A setting like subway or rail line travel, with lots of disparate people in close quarters in confined spaces for extended periods, is exactly the kind of environment where face mask wear is most advised.

I never said it didn't (help improve one's risks with COVID). But your response above notably didn't actually answer the question I asked you... since your answer sidestepped it. What I asked you was: show me some credible research that having a "healthy immune system" alone, in the absence of any COVID vaccinations or prior infection based immunity, is equally protective against COVID [compared to being vaccinated]? And the article you linked above doesn't address that question at all... nor does it even say that having good gut bacteria prevents COVID. Rather, it says only: "New research, which has not yet been peer reviewed, shows the presence of certain bacteria in the gut may reveal which people are more vulnerable to a more severe case of COVID-19." I seriously doubt you'll find any credible research anywhere that says having a "healthy gut" alone is comparable protection to being fully vaccinated for COVID.

1. not everyone has a "healthy immune system," especially since natural immunity tends to weaken in general as people get older. And those older people are the ones who most frequently end up dying from COVID. 2. show me some credible research that having a "healthy immune system" alone, in the absence of any COVID vaccinations or prior infection based immunity, is equally protective against COVID?

fyi, the FDA policy in the US regarding the new 2nd gen booster shot, once it becomes available soon, is that recipients should have had at least a two-month break since any prior COVID vaccination.